How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, MSBoxer said:

The TV and other news outlets are full of experts commenting and "predicting" what comes next in Ukraine.  At some point other experts will write the history of this war.

I find this community and this thread to be more on point.  When the history is written I will return to these posts to compare what our members thought, how they felt and their observations.  Perhaps we have a resident historian who could encapsulate this thread with a day by day breakdown for future reference.  THAT is a "history" I would happily buy, because it represents us and probably so many others.

I am also going to be quite interested to look back at this thread after the war is over.  I did some sampingly of our Beta testing thread tracking the events of 2013-2015 as they happened.  I found that we consistently got it right.  Not only understanding what was going on, but also identifying what was important to focus on.  That's important in a big, fast moving event where the Russians were tossing out so much crap to distract people from things that mattered.

Our ability to predict what was/wasn't going to happen next was pretty good.  At the very least we were consistently able to recognize when something critical was happening and discuss what it might lead to.  Definitely not perfect, but we got it mostly right.  The fact we were in the process of making a simulation of Russia taking Crimea and invading the Donbas just before Putin took Crimea and invaded the Donbas probably gave us a leg up over those who were focused on the events in Sochi

Steve

[danfrodo]

7 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

So was I

I got a little sidetracked by talking about how little the battle matters from the Russian perspective (e.g. Germany won a lot of battles in WW2... so what?), but I'll try and stay focused...

There are a number of scenarios where Russia could cause a lot of damage to Ukrainian forces.  A successful operation from Izyum would certainly be one of them.  From Putin's standpoint of trying to salvage something from this war it also makes sense that this is where the next battle will be.  Not unless there's a massive force building up in the south somewhere that we're unaware of (it is possible, but I don't think as likely).

For the Russians to pull this off they will have to fix a lot of the systemic problems that were evident on day one of this war.  Logistics, concentration of force, coordination of arms (especially air and artillery), and good tactical leadership.  These things are not just circumstantially broken, they are fundamentally broken.  So the chances of them fixing ALL of these things in the next few days... not likely.  Fixing some of them to the point of demonstrable improvement?  Yeah, possible.

What do I mean by circumstantial vs. fundamental broken?  Think of a shattered German, US, British, or Commonwealth unit in WW2.  At that time it is not combat capable and is probably broken in many ways.  But given some time out of the shooting with proper resupply and refit, capabilities are likely to be restored to a large extent (depends on specific circumstances, for sure).  With the Russians they went into this war saddled with so many problems that the best a shattered unit can hope for is returning to the same problematic state they had before the war started.  Which is to say at BEST the Russians MIGHT go into this fight with the same level of incompetence they had back in February.

Now, what about morale?  Well, *that* is not likely to be improved through rebuilding.  They went in poorly motivated and seeing your unit torn to shreds through incompetence leadership isn't exactly going to inspire better morale.  I suspect the trust between soldiers in many units is gone.  There was a severely wounded Russian soldier (spinal injury?) captured by Ukraine that spoke about how nobody came to help him.  Then some of other Russians came upon him and started to take his ammo and gear, then discovered he was alive.  They left him there.  He was found by Ukrainians almost a half a day later.  I'm sure a lot of this happened and the surviving soldiers know this.  Not confidence inspiring.

How about Ukraine?  Well, it went into the war far more ready and willing to fight than the Russians.  Their ability to fight and their willingness to sacrifice themselves for their country has INCREASED.

Take all of this, swirl it around, and maybe you'll see what I'm seeing.  Russia is not in a good position to do big things on the battlefield.  They may be able to pull of something decent short term, but I doubt they can sustain it long enough to matter.  Not just for the war, but also the battle that is shaping up.

Steve

And like I mentioned earlier today, any Russian advance to the south via Izyum has it's right flank totally exposed.  And if they are already losing ground on that right flank, that's not a good sign for RU.

[sburke]

27 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Here's Kofman's feed.  Not much postings by him lately, which is a shame.  He had a large number of postings on April 3rd about Russia's ability to raise replacements/reinforcements is very good:

Steve

 

One thing he didn't bring up was that issue of soldiers' pay.  It becomes problematic when you are offering bonuses to redeploy, but word has gotten out that there seems to be some issues actually getting paid.

[Battlefront.com]

1 minute ago, LongLeftFlank said:

2. Joe Biden (and whoever else is running his admin) would give their left glands (pick one) to be able to do a non ground forces (which aren't really needed tbh) intervention in Ukraine on 'humanitarian grounds' and claim credit in the midterm elections for ending the crisis. A Russian use of NBC would provide just that opening. Putin knows it.

Yes.  NATO could likely end the war in a couple of days.  Russia has spent 20+ years making NATO out to be Russia's number one threat and making fun of Ukraine's capabilities.  Well, Ukraine is kicking their asses all over the place.  I bet that if they have time to think about NATO is isn't "we were wrong about Ukraine, but I'm sure we're right that we can stand up to NATO". 

The first day of a NATO campaign would be true "shock and awe".  The amount of things that would go boom within a few hours would not have a calming effect on the shattered Russian morale.  I wouldn't be surprised if after 1-2 days of activities any Russian would dare to drive in a vehicle for even 5 minutes. 

Steve

[sburke]

Hmm wonder if this is getting reported in Russia

Russia laments 'significant losses' as Ukraine braces for major offensive (yahoo.com)

Russia on Thursday appeared to give the most damning assessment so far of its invasion, describing the "tragedy" of mounting troop losses and the economic hit as Ukrainians were evacuated from eastern cities before an anticipated major offensive.

Russia has previously acknowledged its attack has not progressed as quickly as it wanted, but on Thursday Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov lamented the rising death toll.

"We have significant losses of troops," he told Sky News. "It's a huge tragedy for us."

[danfrodo]

2 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Yes.  NATO could likely end the war in a couple of days.  Russia has spent 20+ years making NATO out to be Russia's number one threat and making fun of Ukraine's capabilities.  Well, Ukraine is kicking their asses all over the place.  I bet that if they have time to think about NATO is isn't "we were wrong about Ukraine, but I'm sure we're right that we can stand up to NATO". 

The first day of a NATO campaign would be true "shock and awe".  The amount of things that would go boom within a few hours would not have a calming effect on the shattered Russian morale.  I wouldn't be surprised if after 1-2 days of activities any Russian would dare to drive in a vehicle for even 5 minutes. 

Steve

This is what terrifies Putin such that he threatens nukes

 

[Battlefront.com]

6 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

And like I mentioned earlier today, any Russian advance to the south via Izyum has it's right flank totally exposed.  And if they are already losing ground on that right flank, that's not a good sign for RU.

Worse, they have both flanks exposed.  Pincer attacks are very prone to failure when that is the case.  When driving down through an enemy's positions you need to expand (even if slightly) to the sides as well as in a linear direction.  The flanking forces have to be evenly matched (at least) with the expected pressure against the sides of the drive.  Russia has shown it doesn't do this sort of thing well.

Plus, as I stated at the start of this Izyum scenario, Russia also has somehow do all of this while Ukraine (hopefully) pounds the crap out of it with massed artillery fire. 

It's a small bit of real estate, not much room to maneuver.  I don't see it ending well for Russia provided Ukraine is able to bring enough mass into the fight.  If it can not, then Russia's job is still tough but maybe, just maybe, feasible to eek out a short term gain.

Steve

[sburke]

For a KGB guy this has got to hurt.

 

Expulsion of Russian ‘diplomats’ may strangle Moscow’s spying (msn.com)

Russia depends on those operatives to gather intelligence inside the countries where they serve, so the expulsions could dismantle large parts of Moscow’s spy networks and lead to a dramatic reduction in espionage and disinformation operations against the West, current and former officials said.

“The intelligence war with Russia is at full swing,” said Marc Polymeropoulos, a retired CIA officer who oversaw the agency’s clandestine operations in Europe and Russia. “This … will prove to be a significant dent in Russian intelligence operations in Europe.” Officials said it appeared to be the largest ever coordinated expulsion of diplomats from Europe.

“Europe has always been the Russians’ playground. They have wreaked havoc with election interference and assassinations. This is a long overdue step,” Polymeropoulos said.

In the past six weeks, European officials have asked nearly 400 Russian diplomats to leave their postings, according to a tally by The Washington Post. Notably, countries that have long tried to avoid confrontation with Moscow are among those declaring Russian diplomats persona non grata.

Expulsions by the Czech Republic, for example, which has in the past pursued a less hawkish policy toward Moscow, have left just six Russian diplomats in Prague, a point the government underscored on Wednesday. “WE FORCED 100 RUSSIAN ‘DIPLOMATS’ TO LEAVE,” said the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in an Instagram post that implied the Russian officials were actually intelligence officers.

Senior European officials involved in the expulsion process said the impact would likely vary from place to place. Some countries, like Austria, are thick with international agencies that are prime targets. Other regions, like the Baltics, have large numbers of ethnic Russians who moved there during the Soviet occupation and can be targets for influence campaigns.

A senior European diplomat called it a “major disruption” to Russia’s intelligence work in Europe, potentially a permanent one. The Kremlin will have difficulty replenishing its intelligence ranks, the diplomat said.

“Reassigning and instruction will take time and may not be possible for some time, if ever,” said the diplomat who, like others, spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive matters. “Retraining, redeploying, all of this is disrupted.”

 

[Battlefront.com]

7 minutes ago, sburke said:

In the past six weeks, European officials have asked nearly 400 Russian diplomats to leave their postings, according to a tally by The Washington Post. Notably, countries that have long tried to avoid confrontation with Moscow are among those declaring Russian diplomats persona non grata.

Ouch.  And guess what folks?  This is one of those things that will not go back to normal when the war is over.  The expulsion is a permanent event.

Steve

[billbindc]

6 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Ouch.  And guess what folks?  This is one of those things that will not go back to normal when the war is over.  The expulsion is a permanent event.

Steve

What's as much or maybe more significant than any outright spying is how directly and immediately it affects influence networks. Just as every embassy diplomat is in some measure a spy, every embassy spy is building networks of relationships that are often more useful than an envelope with the latest torpedo plans in it. Russian embassy staff wielded enormous sway through them and now they're mostly gone. It will take decades to rebuild them.

[Battlefront.com]

DoD summary of what has been pledged/sent to Ukraine as of today:

 

[danfrodo]

3 minutes ago, billbindc said:

What's as much or maybe more significant than any outright spying is how directly and immediately it affects influence networks. Just as every embassy diplomat is in some measure a spy, every embassy spy is building networks of relationships that are often more useful than an envelope with the latest torpedo plans in it. Russian embassy staff wielded enormous sway through them and now they're mostly gone. It will take decades to rebuild them.

Oh, but what about the victims of this?  For example, who's gonna deliver the blood money to Tucker? 

[chuckdyke]

Just now, danfrodo said:

who's gonna deliver the blood money to Tucker? 

Putin will nominate Tucker for the Nobel Peace Price.

[danfrodo]

I just realized that there will probably be some kind of "stab in the back" myth forming in Russia after this.  I hope all the jews have already fled that awful country.

[Battlefront.com]

From today's ISW report:

Quote

Russian efforts to generate replacement forces and produce new military equipment continue to face challenges. The Ukrainian General Staff reported on April 7 that the Russian military began recruiting conscripts who have been discharged from military service since 2012 and is summoning them for a special three-month training period before deployment to active units.[2] The General Staff additionally reported that Russian units withdrawn from northeastern Ukraine are currently residing in tent camps and face declining morale.[3] Ukraine’s Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported on April 7 that Russian military enterprises are unable to fulfill military orders due to inflation and supply chain issues, which it attributed to the effects of western sanctions.[4] The GUR claimed it intercepted a Kremlin report on the inability of several companies to complete state contracts and discontent over the Russian Ministry of Defense forcing companies to produce orders at a loss.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-april-7

To the people that claim sanctions aren't having a bite on Russia's ability to wage war, here's some more evidence that there is.

One thing I keep forgetting to write about whatever Russia is cooking up for a new offensive.  The whole point of hooking around behind someone's LOC is to save yourself from bloody frontal attacks.  Such bloody frontal attacks have been going on for weeks now without much progress, therefore I would think Russia is not planning much in the way of major ops out of Luhansk and Donetsk.  Rotating units out (especially the cannonfodder) with "fresh" ones, increasing artillery support, and improving supplies... yes, I expect that.  But I expect no major operations out of there until either the Izyum attack starts to unhinge Ukrainian defenses *OR* the Izyum falters and they attempt to salvage it through frontal attacks.

I don't have a good read on the supposed southern pincer coming up from below the city of Donetsk.  Fighting over the last week has not gone will for Russia there and it seems the forces in that area are spent.  It seems possible that this area is too far gone from offensive potential that it won't be seriously reinforced for further attacks northward.

Steve

 

 

[akd]

The glass is interesting:

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1512265335226912769?s=20&t=SUtp93q41I38uxipeHmPXg

 

[Battlefront.com]

2 minutes ago, akd said:

The glass is interesting:

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1512265335226912769?s=20&t=SUtp93q41I38uxipeHmPXg

 

From the driver's vision block?  Certainly is thick.

Steve

[chuckdyke]

I can see the point autoloaders on AFV's may not be a brilliant design feature. 

[Battlefront.com]

It's ironic that an abandoned Russian tank being control detonated is more of a risk of injuring a Ukrainian service member through flying debris than it was when it was actively crewed:

 

[Battlefront.com]

Interesting footage of a wrecked pontoon bridge and vehicles:

 

[danfrodo]

14 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

It's ironic that an abandoned Russian tank being control detonated is more of a risk of injuring a Ukrainian service member through flying debris than it was when it was actively crewed:

 

funny and terrifying

[dan/california]

1 hour ago, sburke said:

One thing he didn't bring up was that issue of soldiers' pay.  It becomes problematic when you are offering bonuses to redeploy, but word has gotten out that there seems to be some issues actually getting paid.

Of all the impossibly stupid things the Russian state/military apparatus could do, Not paying the troops it is already mistreating seems like the very dumbest choice possible. The ruble is already pretty much worthless, couldn't they just PRINT them, at least for this. This seems like active regime self sabotage. That is the MOST sensible explanation, all the others make even less sense.

19 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

funny and terrifying

I have seen hours and hours of tape of people just ambling by, or standing next too, burning Russian AFVs. Every time I want yell at them, get the bleep away!

[chuckdyke]

6 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Not paying the troops it is already mistreating seems like the very dumbest choice possible.

That is how wars were fought. The troops were given the city as payment. Looting, pillaging, raping was the norm. This is how the Russian army gets paid by the looks of it. 

[sross112]

The 10th man/devil's advocate stuff:

Putin can't register a "win" by any standards that we are putting forth, but he doesn't have to. He only has to register a win that he can sell to Russia. To him it doesn't matter that the strategic and operational goals of his invasion won't be met, he only needs to do enough to spin it as a win to the Russian people.

With that being said, here is how he does it:

Keep the Izyum bridgehead alive and pressure on the Donetsk front. That is where the Ukranian general staff keeps talking about the next offensive coming from. The units that pulled out from around Kyiv are in that general area resting/refitting/whatever, but they are a distraction and pinning UA troops to that area to repel the coming offensive. If Steve is running the show 90% of their arty is also deployed in that area, which degrades their ability along the rest of the line. No grand offensive will be launched, just keeping everyone tied down there.

Dig in, probe north around Kharkov and south all along the rest of the line. If there is an opportunity to seize better defensive positions, take them. Otherwise pin as many UA forces as possible with the threat of attack and use arty to grind them. 

The only place the RA keeps attacking and doubles or triples down, whatever it takes, is Mariupol. As soon as Mariupol is taken and secure he can announce that all objectives were met for his special operation. Immediately withdraw away from Kharkov back to the border of Luhansk. Withdraw from Kherson to the south side of the Dnepr and hold. 

The RA has a proven inability to successfully conduct flexible fast paced offensive operations, but if they dig in like ticks and rely on masses of arty they can make it very expensive for the UA.

Putin shows the world by his withdrawals that he is willing to cease fire and claims an end of the special operation. He sells it as a victory to his people as they liberated Luhansk and established a land bridge to the Crimea. He hands over several scapegoats to take the hit for the atrocities to be tried as war criminals and denies all knowledge of the systemic abuses committed by his forces. The west finds it hard to persist in supporting the UA in what is now an "offensive" war against the RA and of course becomes bored and the support of the western masses dwindles quickly. The front becomes a low intensity meat grinder for 10 years until the RA thinks it is strong enough to take another bite out of Ukraine.

Putin saves the day for Russia and doesn't care too much about how all of us on the forum say he lost the war. We don't matter. Only the perception of the people in Russia matter and he will be the great savior and further demonize the west for the ongoing sanctions and crumbling economy.

 

Option number two that everyone is focused on is the actual offensive encircling the UA forces in Donbas. Not gonna happen. Can't happen. Will get smashed. Steve has already emailed Zelensky the plans on how to do it and the preparations are underway.  

Actually, it could succeed, if it wasn't being conducted by the current RA. The combat power  numbers are still there, but in order to be successful it would have to be a very fast, sustained, completely mobile action that encircled, pivoted and crushed the pocket in 48 hours(?). That won't happen. The RA is simply not capable of such operations as they have already proven in this invasion. They couldn't conduct that sort of thing at the beginning when their chances were the best for that type of operation and now it just isn't possible. 

So plan A it has to be. I don't see any other option to spin a win out this for Putin. 

Edited April 8, 2022 by sross112

[Battlefront.com]

Interesting footage of a river crossing near Izyum.  Note that the RT camerman doesn't do a great job hiding the fact that this isn't the first bridge here and that T-72s don't float so well: