How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Vacillator]

26 minutes ago, Cpl Steiner said:

Just throwing out there a theory of mine - that the brutality of soldiers is related to whether they come from city or rural backgrounds. This part of the world is very rural so I imagine lots of the combatants are used to seeing animals slaughtered etc.

I get your point but don't think I'd buy it.  It might be a small part of the whole sad mix of experience / education / expected behaviour / etc. etc. but only a part.  I'm sure you could argue the reverse argument as well, but doing so might evoke the wrath of the 'forum focus' police, with whom I do not disagree.

Disclaimer: I was brought up in a rural environment, educated in a city, work internationally and live once again in a rural environment.

Edited April 7, 2022 by Vacillator
Education lacking, missed a word.

[acrashb]

55 minutes ago, akd said:

 However, I am disappointed to see this get much more play with Western (non-UKR) journalists than the onslaught of witness accounts of civilian rape and murder by Russians. 

Part of Russian propaganda technique is to sow doubt to degrade trust in institutions and create and enhance a sense of moral equivalency.  While this incident you reference appears to be real, it is also being pushed by Russian sources, and gets a lot of play in the West because of a general Western sense of moral equivalency and, frankly, self-flagellation growing in the last few decades.  If it causes people to tune out from the vastly more systemic Russian atrocities, then, mission accomplished (by the Russians).

41 minutes ago, BlackMoria said:

[...] Intellectually as a species, we evolved to put a man on the moon and do all sorts of uplifting things. 

[...]

But the savage in each and everyone of us is still there and we had far too many wars where the savage in each of us is stirred and we do terrible things to to other human beings - The holocaust, Stalin's atrocities to his own people and other ethnic groups, Rwanda, Bosnia, Cambodia, Sudan, Yemen, Ethopia.... etc. 

The first is physical technology, and here we have done incredible things that would look like magic to our recent ancestors.

The second is social technology.  If you look at the sweep of history, we have also made huge progress (just looking at historical homicide rates over the last couple of millennia, for example).  But there is a lot of runway left to go and localized reversion does happen.

 

[Haiduk]

1 hour ago, Elmar Bijlsma said:

There's a video doing the rounds that seems to show Ukrainians killing RU soldiers.

Not going post it here as no-one needs to see that gruesome ****. But those of you that have seen it: did you see the shoulder patch Ukrainian flag on one the soldiers involved? Upside down. What a curious mistake to make if you are a patriotic Ukrainian.

There were fighters of Georgian Legion. Their commander, which 3 months spent in Russian captivity in 2008,  lost several comrades in Irpin' and saw during the clashed all, what we all have seen just now, told he and his unit will never take Russians prisoners alive. Especilly Kadyrov's fighters.    

I understand, such guys like HRW and rose-heared millenials will resent. But here is not fantasy world of white unicorns. Here is war of annihilation against us. After Bucha and many other places, which we will se soon, there will be too hard for commanders to keep sodiers from such really terrible actions.  

PS: some people in Ukraine believe that our flag have to be upside down ) This is long hystorical and even esoteric discussion in our society. 

Edited April 7, 2022 by Haiduk

[Kinophile]

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

@sburke @Kinophile

+1 mayor

Mayor Dmitriy Stakheev. Killed 29th of Marth. No info about the unit. Confirmed by Russian media.

 

Yessssssss

[Taranis]

A destroyed Russian armored vehicle in Vokzalna street, in Bucha, Ukraine, on April 4, 2022. LAURENT VAN DER STOCKT FOR “LE MONDE

* wrecked BMD-2

[Kinophile]

29 minutes ago, womble said:

And the targets are SPG rather than tanks, I'd hazard. Or are modern "proper tanks" vulnerable to 30mm AC fire from the rear?

Huh, actually you could be right, the turrets are very SPG-like, boxy.

[dan/california]

3 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

Huh, actually you could be right, the turrets are very SPG-like, boxy.

There is footage of the Russians using SPGs for direct fire in Mariupol. Azov saw an opportunity to discourage the practice.

[Kinophile]

13 minutes ago, Vacillator said:

I get your point but don't think I'd buy it.  It might be a small part of the whole sad mix of experience / education / expected behaviour / etc. etc. but only a part.  I'm sure you could argue the reverse argument as well, but doing so might evoke the wrath of the 'forum focus' police, with whom I do not disagree.

Disclaimer: I was brought up in a rural environment, educated in a city, work internationally and live once again in a rural environment.

Interestingly, its common trope back home that country towns with slaughterhouses are prone to more violence. It's framed as the guys involved blowing off steam. The Gardaí (police) assigned to these towns are often tougher and larger than your average rotund, slow moving Farmer-botherer. There are no slaughterhouses in the larger cities, I believe.

[Haiduk]

Russian Legion in Foreign Corps is forming. Fighters got UKR uniform and own chevrons with a flag of "new Russia" - without bottom red strip. As if this is a colors of Novhorod Principality, which had noble democrasy form of ruling (sometime it names Novhorod Repuplic) and was conquered and slaughtered by Moscov Principate in the end of 15th century. 

The writings on chevrone is "Freedon for Russia". Number of personnel of the legion is unknown. 

Edited April 7, 2022 by Haiduk

[Der Zeitgeist]

2 hours ago, Cpl Steiner said:

If Russia really has lost now, as Steve has suggested, isn't there a danger Putin switches to chemical and  nuclear weapons?

I don't really see much risk for that any longer. I think Putin has his exit strategy mapped out by now.

He now has about one month to produce something he can report as a victory, and it will probably be a story of having "saved" the Russians in Donbass from Ukrainian Nazis, mostly disarming Ukraine in the process, while suffering great casualties, but it was all worth it to prevent World War III. Something like that.

It's all bull****, of course, but if you're Putin, you don't have to deal with being questioned or held accountable. That's the entire point of turning Russia into the state it is today. It doesn't matter what really happened.

Edited April 7, 2022 by Der Zeitgeist

[Thomm]

40 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

...when Grog hit Urgh on the head for a seedpod.

Steve

So, you predicted that, too??!

Actually, my real question is: Why do we not see more airburst artillery shells in use?

Are they too rare? Too expensive? Out of fashion?

Best regards,
Thomm

[Kinophile]

ALL

We need a Devil's Advocate/ 10th Man Rule here.

What if RUS plays this smart?

What happens if they gain a commander who plays to what strengths they have left? 

What if they avoid the zerg rush we fear/expect and go for something more methodical, with a 2 month time frame, e.g. mercilessly and uncaringly burning human and mechanized fodder to pin UKR units in place, driving them forward with full WW2 style "retreaters will be shot" enforcement, at massive cost but nonetheless pinning the UKR.

I'm not saying that's the approach that would win it for them, but could we discuss what RUS can do?  We know that UKR could lose this battle (and still win the war) but how would they lose, militarily? What does a UKR defeat look like?

We all know Steve's points, and they're very valid/realistic, but - if the human cost is not a political issue, and there is sufficient battlefield security (OMON/SOBR/FSB etc), and you were RUS C/G, what would you do?

 

Edited April 7, 2022 by Kinophile

[db_zero]

What the highly acclaimed movie “As If I Am Not There” based on true stories if you want to see the uglier side of war. 
 

As much as I’m fascinated by the social media war and videos I ask myself if I’m watching a form of snuff films…

It already being discussed how social media and the fascination with people dying seems to be a popular topic.

[BlackMoria]

Mechanical Fuze timers are cranky, at least when I was in the artillery 30 years ago.  They mechanically have to be set and the observer observes the height of burst and make fuze timer adjustments.  Not a fast process, and they have a higher rate of failure than normal PD (point detonating) fuzes.

Variable Time fuzes (VT) are better but the radio transmitters can be jammed or triggered by emitter before hitting the target.  Also the ground surface is a factor.   Radio waves from the VT fuze can penetrate mud before getting a sufficient signal return to set off the round.   And it is major mud season in Ukraine.  All of the above plus cost and availability probably play into why there is not many videos of them being used.

[The_Capt]

34 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

ALL

We need a Devil's Advocate/ 10th Man Rule here.

What if RUS plays this smart?

What happens if they gain a commander who plays to what strengths they have left? 

What if they avoid the zerg rush we fear/expect and go for something more methodical, with a 2 month time frame, e.g. mercilessly and uncaringly burning human and mechanized fodder to pin UKR units in place, driving them forward with full WW2 style "retreaters will be shot" enforcement, at massive cost but nonetheless pinning the UKR.

I'm not saying that's the approach that would win it for them, but could we discuss what RUS can do?  We know that UKR could lose this battle (and still win the war) but how would they lose, militarily? What does a UKR defeat look like?

We all know Steve's points, and they're very valid/realistic, but - if the human cost is not a political issue, and there is sufficient battlefield security (OMON/SOBR/FSB etc), and you were RUS C/G, what would you do?

 

That is an excellent way to avoid the echo chamber trap - 10th man or red teaming.  Tricky and we have to be sensitive here as this war is still very real but were I the red team in the Ukrainian military staff what would I suggest to answer this?

First off we would have to make some big assumptions:

- Russians establish unity of command at the operational level.

- They sell the plan to an up until now impossible political level

- They actually start doing joint operations as opposed to what appears like three siloed wars.  So this means they actually get some sort of air superiority in a much smaller theatre.  And are able to integrate fires, while also getting a grip on the information architecture.

IF they could even do that halfway decent then they might be able to start prosecuting this war halfway sane, and that is a big "if".   Bit for the moment lets say they get it together, what next?

To my mind they want/need a stalemate they can negotiate from.  A lot harder now that they went all war crimey (dumb as well as immoral) but their best negotiating position appears to be one of "too costly to finish".  This is really a form of territorial denial that would force the UA to go on a long drawn out offensive to try and remove them.  So this means taking a very modest amount of gains, stuff that really matters and digging in, hard.  If they forward dump logistics and basically dig in WW1 style and hold on like a tick, they might just be too hard and costly to dislodge without the UA becoming so worn down as to risk losing what they have gained.  

But they need to drastically reduce their frontage again.  They are now looking "better" at "only" a 800km frontage but they need to cut that down even further.  Abandon this whole "pinch and encircle" nonsense, even if they do technically pull it off, they will never be able to control that whole area in the east - it is like trying to hug bees to death.  Get that frontage down to a few hundred kms, focus on that bloody land bridge and hold on.   It is a losing strategy but it may eke out a draw that the political level can upsell as a win and then try and figure out some sort of re-normalization, or how you become a province in China. - (seriously, we are talking operational and military strategy here.  Politically the Russians are totally screwed.)

That or we are at Hail Mary, miracle time.  Maybe they get lucky and actually pull off an encirclement that works.  Maybe they have held back a couple divisions of T-14 BTGs.  Maybe they unleash the werewolf hordes.  If Russia tries to play the same game that got them into this mess they are likely to fail harder.  Their troop quality is a mess, cohesion is a mess due to leadership losses, they have not demonstrated any shifts in logistical methods - so we can bet that once they boldly advance 50km they will start running out of gas.  Even if they get the mass in place, "tank rush" as Steve puts it, they will be meeting UA troops that have been re-armed and reinforced who have already demonstrated they can kill Russian mass at range with impunity along its entire corridor of existence.

There are other Russian options, but they all would take about a decade to set up.  

Edited April 7, 2022 by The_Capt

[Battlefront.com]

28 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

ALL

We need a Devil's Advocate/ 10th Man Rule here.

What if RUS plays this smart?

What happens if they gain a commander who plays to what strengths they have left?

This is the problem I (and others) have had since before the war started... there is NO WAY FOR RUSSIA TO WIN.  Best they could ever hope for was an Afghanistan situation where years and years of resistance and pressure caused Russia to collapse or retreat (or retreat and then collapse, as happened to the Soviet Union the last time they tried something like this).

So I appreciate the Devil's Advocate approach, but I've gamed this out 6 ways to Sunday and it always leads back to Russia losing.  Now, if Putin had just gone into the Donbas and enlarged the holdings... lots of ways that Russia could have come out on top of that and no risk of regime collapse.  But Putin went full war and so that is no longer an option. 

I think that's a point that has to be fully appreciated.  There was a way to get most of what Putin wanted out of Ukraine through other means.  But Putin wanted EVERYTHING and that is just not going to happen.

OK, so what is the least crappy option for Putin right now?  Spend a month reorganizing forces and preparing for a summer offensive from both the south and the Izyum salient.

The thing is, I don't think Russia can make it a month.  Too many risks exist.  Something is bound to go wrong and disrupt the plans and there won't likely be enough freedom of action to adjust the plan to be something else.

Did I mention yet that I don't see any military solution for Russia?

Steve

[Kinophile]

@Battlefront.com to clarify, I'm talking about this Donbass/Dnipro battle, not the war as a whole. I fully agree re Russia has no long term win on the shelf.

But this coming battle, they could win. We should assume it's possible, as anything is. What would need to go right for them, wrong for UKR?

What if RuAF realized early that Kiev was a dead end and has been husbanding PGMs, enough to be a serious problem for UKR logistics, at just the wrong moment?

What if an overall commander emerges, one who has Putin's confidence and brutally shoves the army forward?

What if DLPR finally effect a breakthrough, simultaneous with the shoving campaign south from Izym/Kharkiv?

How does UKR retreat from the JTO and not lose? 

Edited April 7, 2022 by Kinophile

[db_zero]

Video from “Russia and Russian Military” expert on Russian performance. He states Russia can no longer achieve its political war goals, best they can do is achieve military goals…

 

 

[Degsy]

"Where do Orcs come from".  A Google map released by the Ukrainian Ministry of Defence showing the passport numbers, service numbers (I think), DoB, rank and, seemingly, town of origin of members of the 64th Motor Rifle Brigade, the unit which carried out the killings in Bucha. Most of the soldiers evidently come from medium to small towns and villages from across Russia, and very few from the big cities. The home addresses of individual soldiers are not shown. 

"The Betrayed".  A documentary about the first Chechen War in 1994, the battle for Grozny, and some Russian mothers trying to trace their PoW sons. Compare and contrast with what's happening Ukraine today - very little has changed in attitudes, behaviour, or methods. The film is 1hr 20 mins long but if you have the time it's worth watching. 

"Bloody Energy"      The latest video in the information war. Just over a minute long.

 

[Erwin]

46 minutes ago, Der Zeitgeist said:

I don't really see much risk for that any longer. I think Putin has his exit strategy mapped out by now.

He now has about one month to produce something he can report as a victory, and it will probably be a story of having "saved" the Russians in Donbass from Ukrainian Nazis, mostly disarming Ukraine in the process, while suffering great casualties, but it was all worth it to prevent World War III. Something like that.

It's all bull****, of course, but if you're Putin, you don't have to deal with being questioned or held accountable. That's the entire point of turning Russia into the state it is today. It doesn't matter what really happened.

That's it in a nutshell.  The only victory is his own survival, but the land bridge from Crimea to Russia would be invaluable.  No matter what else happens, if Putin survives all this, that will be domestically spun into a Russian victory. 

The big danger is that our own weak leaders (and burned out populations fed up with inflation, rising interest rates etc.) will tire after some more weeks/months of this Ukrainian war TV show and start to force/persuade Ukraine to make some sort of peace which of course will be phony.  

It is obvious that the current western strategy is not to defeat Russia, but merely bleed it at the cost of Ukrainian lives.  The primary audience is China - to (hopefully) frighten China into quiescence for a few more years (until the current western administrations are gone), and then it will be someone else's problem.  

[sburke]

32 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

That is an excellent way to avoid the echo chamber trap - 10th man or red teaming.  Tricky and we have to be sensitive here as this war is still very real but were I the red team in the Ukrainian military staff what would I suggest to answer this?

First off we would have to make some big assumptions:

- Russians establish unity of command at the operational level.

- They sell the plan to an up until now impossible political level

- They actually start doing joint operations as opposed to what appears like three siloed wars.  So this means they actually get some sort of air superiority in a much smaller theatre.  And are able to integrate fires, while also getting a grip on the information architecture.

IF they could even do that halfway decent then they might be able to start prosecuting this war halfway sane, and that is a big "if".   Bit for the moment lets say they get it together, what next?

To my mind they want/need a stalemate they can negotiate from.  A lot harder now that they went all war crimey (dumb as well as immoral) but their best negotiating position appears to be one of "too costly to finish".  This is really a form of territorial denial that would force the UA to go on a long drawn out offensive to try and remove them.  So this means taking a very modest amount of gains, stuff that really matters and digging in, hard.  If they forward dump logistics and basically dig in WW1 style and hold on like a tick, they might just be too hard and costly to dislodge without the UA becoming so worn down as to risk losing what they have gained.  

But they need to drastically reduce their frontage again.  They are now looking "better" at "only" a 800km frontage but they need to cut that down even further.  Abandon this whole "pinch and encircle" nonsense, even if they do technically pull it off, they will never be able to control that whole area in the east - it is like trying to hug bees to death.  Get that frontage down to a few hundred kms, focus on that bloody land bridge and hold on.   It is a losing strategy but it may eke out a draw that the political level can upsell as a win and then try and figure out some sort of re-normalization, or how you become a province in China. - (seriously, we are talking operational and military strategy here.  Politically the Russians are totally screwed.)

That or we are at Hail Mary, miracle time.  Maybe they get lucky and actually pull off an encirclement that works.  Maybe they have held back a couple divisions of T-14 BTGs.  Maybe they unleash the werewolf hordes.  If Russia tries to play the same game that got them into this mess they are likely to fail harder.  Their troop quality is a mess, cohesion is a mess do to leadership losses, they have not demonstrated any shifts in logistical methods - so we can bet that once they boldly advance 50km they will start running out of gas.  Even if they get the mass in place, "tank rush" as Steve puts it, they will be meeting UA troops that have been re-armed and reinforced who have already demonstrated they can kill Russian mass at range with impunity along its entire corridor of existence.

There are other Russian options, but they all would take about a decade to set up.  

 

[akd]

Video the clip of the 2S3 direct firing in Mariupol was cut from:

 

[Vacillator]

2 hours ago, Kinophile said:

Interestingly, its common trope back home that country towns with slaughterhouses are prone to more violence. It's framed as the guys involved blowing off steam. The Gardaí (police) assigned to these towns are often tougher and larger than your average rotund, slow moving Farmer-botherer. There are no slaughterhouses in the larger cities, I believe.

At the risk of disapproval from the focus police...

Wherever in the world (Canada, Ireland, UK or wherever) slaughterhouses tend to be near the farming/ranching areas.  Makes sense. 

As for whether that makes such locations more violent, I doubt it but have no statistics.  Having been in a few abattoirs over the years has probably made me feel less violent rather than more violent.  I'll leave it there if that's okay...

 

Edited April 7, 2022 by Vacillator

[db_zero]

1 hour ago, Erwin said:

That's it in a nutshell.  The only victory is his own survival, but the land bridge from Crimea to Russia would be invaluable.  No matter what else happens, if Putin survives all this, that will be domestically spun into a Russian victory. 

The big danger is that our own weak leaders (and burned out populations fed up with inflation, rising interest rates etc.) will tire after some more weeks/months of this Ukrainian war TV show and start to force/persuade Ukraine to make some sort of peace which of course will be phony.  

It is obvious that the current western strategy is not to defeat Russia, but merely bleed it at the cost of Ukrainian lives.  The primary audience is China - to (hopefully) frighten China into quiescence for a few more years (until the current western administrations are gone), and then it will be someone else's problem.  

I’ve heard a few geopolitical wonks say this-the best strategy is to bleed out Russia in Ukraine. I think Zelinsky knows this and obliquely says this but can’t be too blunt cause he doesn’t want to bite the hand that feeds him.

The danger of American fatigue is very real. There are a lot of unfilled wants domestically and to see billions siphoned off overseas is going to cause great stress. Add that to increased defense spending and rising interest rates will cause interest on existing debt to increase.

I think the idea of a Marshal plan for Ukraine is wishful thinking. The tax rate to pay off WW2 and Marshal Plan was over 90% for the top bracket and there is already a huge fight brewing over proposed changes to taxes with the predictions it will lead to current party in power getting shellacked in November.

Food shortages in the third world is going to cause great unrest and higher food prices in the developed world. We already have high gas prices.

Next up is lumber and concrete. Already home builders in the US have problems getting basic materials.

When Ukraine starts rebuilding they’re going to consume an enormous amount of lumber, concrete, steel and copper just to name a few.

Edited April 7, 2022 by db_zero

[Ultradave]

3 hours ago, Cpl Steiner said:

Just throwing out there a theory of mine - that the brutality of soldiers is related to whether they come from city or rural backgrounds. This part of the world is very rural so I imagine lots of the combatants are used to seeing animals slaughtered etc.

My opinion (worth what you paid for it), is that it has more to do with lack of discipline and professionalism in the army. That's an indictment of the NCO corps and the junior officers. Nothing we haven't talked about there.

Lots of my troopers came from rural areas in the South of the US. Lots of them. BUT they were well trained and the NCOs that were my team sergeants were the best in the business. There was never a question that our guys would behave.

Dave