How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Kinophile]

Yay, called it

Ivankiv is the cork in the bottle. There must be several (1-3) thousand RUS south of it.

Stunning victory.

C

[BletchleyGeek]

The Ukrainian army now has what looks like a good jump off point to abort the Russian offensive on Izyum

pushing along the road Chuihuiv-Shevchenkove-Kupiansk. Maybe just the fancy of the armchair general, but maybe there is an unseen reserve available as @Bil Hardenberger was musing about.

Also, there is on liveuamap a report of the RF forces blowing up a damn on the river Oskol, just east of Izyum. What is that about?

Edited April 1, 2022 by BletchleyGeek

[BletchleyGeek]

3 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

Ivankiv is the cork in the bottle. There must be several (1-3) thousand RUS south of it.

Now they are sitting on the RF loc for sure... I am now imagining how Lavrov is going to spin this as a great example of "trading space for time" or some other nonsense.

[Aragorn2002]

1 hour ago, kraze said:

Belgorod is one of the key staging grounds (and supply routes) for an invasion. You can be absolutely sure that's an invasion fuel burning.

Since it's close to Charkov that is indeed very likely.

[c3k]

Some points...

1. Yes, I do think that there is widespread Russian public support for this invasion. The Russian media and other state organs have been influencing the population to think this way.

2. Ukraine will not stop until the last Russian is out of Ukraine (yes, this includes Donetsk and Luhansk and Crimea).

3. As evidenced by the strike on Belgorod, Ukraine is willing to attack targets inside Russia. (Seems more than fair since units inside Russia have been striking Ukraine since 2014.)

4. Russia will not cede anything while Putin is in office. (Every good dictator needs an external, existential, threat.)

5. Russia/Putin cannot be trusted in any way. Cease fire? Pull back? De-militarized zone? They would all be lies and just a tool to allow Russia to re-arm and ready themselves to re-attack. Nothing negotiated can be trusted.

^^^

This adds up to a much longer war than just a single combat season.  Ukraine (and the West) would be insane to think that it'll all be over once the last Russian unit (or tourist or green man) has been pushed back over the pre-2014 border.

 

 

[SteelRain]

9 hours ago, Machor said:

Julian Röpcke is reporting this was one of four helicopters in the evacuation and that it was carrying Azov leaders (though he later tweeted he believes Kalina's death is faked):

 

 

8 hours ago, akd said:

Don't know how he idiotically jumped to the conclusion that "most of the Azov leadership was killed" other than just straight up reporting Russian propaganda without even thinking about it?  Quite a reporter there...

 

Don't believe any of his trash. Julian Röpcke is just a numb nut writing for the German yellow press. He is calling himself a military expert, but all he puts out is blown up bull****, without providing any credible source.

 

Edited April 1, 2022 by SteelRain

[kraze]

1 hour ago, Combatintman said:

No I can't or I wouldn't have said so ... do you know the facility, do you know what is in those storage tanks?  Do you know whether it is possible to cross-deck fuel (if indeed that is what is stored there) into military fuel tankers from that storage facility.  Are the contents of that storage facility compatible with Russian military vehicles.  Do you know the supply levels within those storage tanks at the time of the strike?  Have you seen military vehicles at the facility recently or ever?

If the answers to the above are mostly negative then nobody can be sure and as I've already stated, I'm leaning to the assessment that it is not "invasion fuel" burning.

Here are a few key arguments:

Any invasion force keeps its resources as close to the border as safely possible so it can quickly resupply.

Russians suck at logistics horribly so that "as safely possible" is turned into simply "as possible".

Russia amassed an invasion force and attacked Kharkiv from Belgorod among other routes.

If they kept their invasion ammo depot in Belgorod (because, again, russians are horrible at logistics as proven by this whole war) - why wouldn't they keep the fuel there too?

As a bonus argument you can also add the "nothing could ever go wrong in soviet union" mentality and modus operandi of people in charge. Which, as this war proves, is a real thing to this day.

Edited April 1, 2022 by kraze

[Taranis]

Ukrainian soldiers pass on top of armored vehicles next to a destroyed Russian tank in the outskirts of Kyiv, Ukraine, Thursday, March 31, 2022. (AP Photo/Rodrigo Abd) RODRIGO ABD / AP

*BTR-80s bypassing wrecked BMP-2

Ukrainian soldiers stand next to destroyed Russian tanks, on the outskirts of kyiv, Ukraine, Thursday, March 31, 2022. Russian forces shelled the outskirts of kyiv, two days after the Kremlin announced it would drastically reduce operations near the capital and the city of Chernihiv, in the north of the country, to "increase mutual trust and create the conditions for new negotiations". RODRIGO ABD / AP

* seems to be wrecked BMP-2 and T-72B3

[DesertFox]

40 minutes ago, SteelRain said:

 

 

Don't believe any of his trash. Julian Röpcke is just a numb nut writing for the German yellow press. He is calling himself a military expert, but all he puts out is blown up bull****, without providing any credible source.

 

Yep BILD reporter. As reliable as someone who is working for SUN.

[Combatintman]

33 minutes ago, kraze said:

Here are a few key arguments:

Any invasion force keeps its resources as close to the border as safely possible so it can quickly resupply.

Russians suck at logistics horribly so that "as safely possible" is turned into simply "as possible".

Russia amassed an invasion force and attacked Kharkiv from Belgorod among other routes.

If they kept their invasion ammo depot in Belgorod (because, again, russians are horrible at logistics as proven by this whole war) - why wouldn't they keep the fuel there too?

As a bonus argument you can also add the "nothing could ever go wrong in soviet union" mentality and modus operandi of people in charge. Which, as this war proves, is a real thing to this day.

So to summarize, you still don't know then.  Here's a bonus question for you - which facility is it?

[LongLeftFlank]

3 hours ago, Combatintman said:

do you know what is in those storage tanks?  Do you know whether it is possible to cross-deck fuel (if indeed that is what is stored there) into military fuel tankers from that storage facility.  Are the contents of that storage facility compatible with Russian military vehicles.  Do you know the supply levels within those storage tanks at the time of the strike?  Have you seen military vehicles at the facility recently or ever?

If the answers to the above are mostly negative then nobody can be sure and as I've already stated, I'm leaning to the assessment that it is not "invasion fuel" burning.

Hmm.

Also, every AAA or security asset now tasked with protecting the Rodina is one less out in the field protecting the RA....

Of course, even if the fuel IS getting into the tanker trucks of Rollbahn E, there's this....

KABOOM!

....But wait! That's not all. Order before midnight tonight and get a special bonus flank kill shot, on the move!

EDIT: this is a Blue on Blue FF kill! 

[/PutinFacepalm]

Further bonus (they just keep rolling in!):  whose spectacular brew up mod are you using?

Zoom in and watch the last few seconds... the lead BMP gets killed, 2 crew bail out and one breaks the world speed record dashing to cover moments before a RU tank behind accidentally cooks off the wreck with a hasty shot.

Keystone Kommisars here.

Or orcs...

'Garn! You missed him,' said the tracker. 'First you shoot wild, then you run too slow, and then you send for the poor trackers. I've had enough of you.' He loped off.

'You come back,' shouted the soldier, 'or I'll report you!'

'Who to? Not to your precious Shagrat. He won't be captain any more.'

'I'll give your name and number to the Nazgûl,' said the soldier lowering his voice to a hiss. 'One of them's in charge at the Tower now.'

The other halted, and his voice was full of fear and rage. 'You cursed peaching sneakthief!' he yelled. 'You can't do your job, and you can't even stick by your own folk. Go to your filthy Shriekers, and may they freeze the flesh off you! If the enemy doesn't get them first. They've done in Number One, I've heard, and I hope it's true!'

The big orc, spear in hand, leapt after him. But the tracker, spring behind a stone, put an arrow in his eye as he ran up and he fell with a crash. The other ran off across the valley and disappeared.

For a while the hobbits sat in silence. At length Sam stirred. 'Well I call that neat as neat,' he said. 'If this nice friendliness would spread about in Mordor, half our trouble would be over.'

 

Or wait, maybe we're all being pranked for April Fools' Day by cunning Russian trolls.

Edited April 1, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[Aragorn2002]

1 hour ago, DesertFox said:

This warms my heart!

 

 

Sure does!

[TheVulture]

I'm amazed they can say this with a straight face. How dare you resist our invasion of your country!

 

 

[Elmar Bijlsma]

Not so sure the supposedly dumb shot into the back is what it seems. Clearly, there is an edit point there. Seems more like they put it beyond use after abandoning. Everyone else is well clear when the shot goes in, and the tank starts moving right away. Not something I'd expect right after a foul up.

Edited April 1, 2022 by Elmar Bijlsma

[LongLeftFlank]

18 minutes ago, Elmar Bijlsma said:

Not so sure the supposedly dumb shot into the back is what it seems. Clearly, there is an edit point there. Seems more like they put it beyond use after abandoning. Everyone else is well clear when the shot goes in, and the tank starts moving right away. Not something I'd expect right after a foul up.

...good eye mate, I did notice the running crewman was 'sped up' 1910 newsreel style. No April Fool for you.

But in other For Make Ineptitude Glorious Russian War Machine anecdata, these 3 BMPs look to me like they were lost to bogging, not enemy action. Separ militiamen assuming that their tin cans can climb any embankment or brush obstacle, cuz tracks? Hmm, oh, except for those telltale shell or mine craters....

Where's their curling brooms, eh?

Mind, you, Iraqi insurgents would occasionally burn holes in pavement using battery acid....

Edited April 1, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[Haiduk]

6 hours ago, dan/california said:

Do we think they pulled the IFF transponder off of a downed Russian heli?

On Russian forum has writtten, the codes are changing every 2-3 days, so it wouldn't work

[Haiduk]

5 hours ago, Fenris said:

Does UKR still have tochka ballistic missiles (or something similar) that could be used for this kind of thing as well?

Yes, we have. Tochka-U, and guided rockets Vilkha, modernization of Smerch. But first enough easy to intercept with modern AD systems and latters too few. 

Edited April 1, 2022 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

.

Edited April 1, 2022 by Haiduk

[LongLeftFlank]

The drone footage from Hostomel will be mapmaking gold for whenever we feel up to doing CM scenarios for this conflict.... not too soon though. 

Seems pretty crystal clear whose side these people are on, and that they want their boys to keep kicking ass. Nobody forcing them to mumble 'Achmet is strong.'

 

Edited April 1, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[Bulletpoint]

1 hour ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Mind, you, Iraqi insurgents would occasionally burn holes in pavement using battery acid....

For what purpose?

[Splinty]

1 minute ago, Bulletpoint said:

For what purpose?

To bury IEDs

 

[Bulletpoint]

3 minutes ago, Splinty said:

To bury IEDs

 

Alright, I was guessing it was something to do with that. I think the ones leaving these mines on the road did not have time to break the asphalt.

Also I'm guessing that the reason they push the mines aside is to avoid triggering any anti-lifting fuzes.

Edited April 1, 2022 by Bulletpoint

[LongLeftFlank]

IEDs, ATGMs, Molotovs, direct fire ambushes.... It's not a good time to be a Russian truck driver. Especially out on the steppelands which are now becoming the locus of this campaign....

[Commanderski]

1 hour ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Where's their curling brooms, eh?

I still don't think I'd be just sliding them around with my feet.

[Taranis]

Ukrainian soldiers stand near a burned Russian tank in the suburbs of kyiv on March 31, 2022, in the midst of Russia's invasion of Ukraine RONALDO SCHEMIDT / AFP

* "Tank" = BMP-2