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How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?


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Russians shot down our Mi-8, which flew from Mariupol with injured soldiers onboard. The crash site is near Rybatske village in 5 km from SW outskirt of Mariupol. 

Judging on Azov's Telegram there were several successfull routes, but probably Russians inelligence uncover theses flights and helicopter was ambushed

Зображення

Edited by Haiduk
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Russians still have teeth, unfortunately.  Very sad to see, Haiduk.  My condolences for the ongoing murders of your countrymen. 

Hopefully in the expected Russian Donbas offensive they will once again go full Guderian and race down single roads, heedless of securing any width.  Then Ukraine forces can cut them off and chop them up.  Definitely a lot easier than trying to displace dug in troops that have supplies. 

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4 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

Russians still have teeth, unfortunately.  Very sad to see, Haiduk.  My condolences for the ongoing murders of your countrymen. 

War is always inavitable losses, alas...

UKR forces struck retreating column of Russians NW of Kyiv

 

 

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Beeeyuuuuteeeeful!  That's one unit that won't be causing trouble down south!  I hope to see more of this, russian forces getting smashed while trying to run away.  And might start more of the panic/mutiny/collapse we've been wanting.  But most of all this is less force for other sectors.

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36 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

War is always inavitable losses, alas...

UKR forces struck retreating column of Russians NW of Kyiv

 

 

Same BMP-2 of the first picture / Part 1

Un militaire ukrainien regarde un véhicule blindé russe détruit après que les forces ukrainiennes ont envahi une position russe à l’extérieur de Kiev, Ukraine, jeudi 31 mars 2022.
A Ukrainian soldier looks at a destroyed Russian armored vehicle after Ukrainian forces overran a Russian position outside kyiv, Ukraine, Thursday, March 31, 2022. VADIM GHIRDA / AP

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2 hours ago, AlsatianFelix said:

I go way back to CM:BO but haven't been around for years. I knew this group would have interesting ideas and comments about Ukraine. Haven't been disappointed.

The scale of Russian losses at Trostyanets is staggering. This video is more on the topic with a good interview of a Ukrainian soldier talking about the tactics they use. Adding 130,000 Russian conscripts alone won't change anything but the body count.

 

Always good to see old faces returning, even if from a life of lurking ;)

One interesting thing on this video that I've been thinking about in more general terms...

Readers of this thread will know how many times and how many ways I've addressed the experts getting this war wrong from the start and then not learning much after.  The Ukrainian soldier "Vlad" in this video indicated yet another reason for this.

We've talked about how the big picture people really don't understand the tactical details that determine how larger military ops and strategic outcomes are shaped.  Vlad said that the Russian soldiers are basically cowards once their armor is killed off.  This is a good example of why things might look one way on paper and a different way in a tactical battle.

On paper a company sized force of mixed armor and infantry still looks pretty powerful if you knock out a couple of tanks.  The thinking is "well, the infantry is fine so there's still a lot of combat potential".  However, if the morale of the 100+ dismounts is psychologically linked to those tanks, then their combat value is also affected. 

We tactical gamers understand that a plan can completely fall apart if key assets are taken out of the fight too early.  And it might not just be the number of tanks lost, it could be what those tanks were supposed to accomplish.  If you have 10 tanks under your command and you send 3 around to flank the enemy, but lose them, your plan might not be 33% degraded it could be 100% out of commission.

So on and so forth.

Just more reasons why big picture thinkers need to spend more time understanding the realities of tactical warfare.

Steve

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11 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Always good to see old faces returning, even if from a life of lurking ;)

One interesting thing on this video that I've been thinking about in more general terms...

Readers of this thread will know how many times and how many ways I've addressed the experts getting this war wrong from the start and then not learning much after.  The Ukrainian soldier "Vlad" in this video indicated yet another reason for this.

We've talked about how the big picture people really don't understand the tactical details that determine how larger military ops and strategic outcomes are shaped.  Vlad said that the Russian soldiers are basically cowards once their armor is killed off.  This is a good example of why things might look one way on paper and a different way in a tactical battle.

On paper a company sized force of mixed armor and infantry still looks pretty powerful if you knock out a couple of tanks.  The thinking is "well, the infantry is fine so there's still a lot of combat potential".  However, if the morale of the 100+ dismounts is psychologically linked to those tanks, then their combat value is also affected. 

We tactical gamers understand that a plan can completely fall apart if key assets are taken out of the fight too early.  And it might not just be the number of tanks lost, it could be what those tanks were supposed to accomplish.  If you have 10 tanks under your command and you send 3 around to flank the enemy, but lose them, your plan might not be 33% degraded it could be 100% out of commission.

So on and so forth.

Just more reasons why big picture thinkers need to spend more time understanding the realities of tactical warfare.

Steve

You also learn a lot about the importance of good commanders/ plans playing CMBS, you can turn a guaranteed victory into smoking wreckage in two bad turns. I used to think I was world class at this, but after seeing the Russians level of expertise..... 

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48 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Vlad said that the Russian soldiers are basically cowards once their armor is killed off. 

I got the impression that he thought they were cowards from the beginning, operating only behind their armour. Which we gamers know is... suboptimal combined arms tactics. 

 

49 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

We tactical gamers understand that a plan can completely fall apart if key assets are taken out of the fight too early. 

We also understand how poor tactics can lead to those assets being lost even though the force ratios look favourable on paper. 

The Russians are scared of fighting without their tanks, and they're scared of protecting them, so they lose them and stop fighting... The commentators I see on UK terrestrial media don't get any of this. And they're still talking as if Russia can back up what it's already committed to Ukraine with "more of the same", which looks more and more unlikely; that's just simple counting of known numbers. And don't forget to subtract the conscripts...

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Russians are retreating also east from Kyiv. Our troops liberated yesterday villages Ploske, Svitylnia and Hrebelky east from Brovary. There were first clashes near Nova Basan' - big village of Chernihiv oblast, were main mart of Russian BTG is located. On this map it pointed like already over Ukranian control, but officially this is not confirmed Зображення

Here our drone recons fly over Nova Basan' to plan the operation of mop-up of this settlement. They see Russians prepare to withdaw. The voice in radio asks what way Russians choose - to Stara Basan' or to Bykiv and says that they is going to intercept their column. After that he asks coordinates and drone operator transmit it to the pad of his assistant and he probably will send it further to recons or to artillery via battlefield information system

As if this Russian tank was captured in Nova Basan', but I still don't see strong confirmations that this settlement is our

 Зображення

Edited by Haiduk
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Hi everyone, 

I've been absent from Battlefront.com forums for a long time. When this war started I thought that a discussion on the subject was surely ongoing on BFC forum, so it's since the end of February that I am following this thread daily, even more often than TV news or social networks.

I just wanted to thank BFC and all the people bringing forward this thread, sharing invaluable news and information on this tragic war.

I hope that Ukrainian people regain their freedom and peace as soon as possible

Niccolò 

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15 minutes ago, akd said:

This claims to show UKR artillery on VDV 2S25 Sprut-SDs, but looks more like BMD-2s and BTR-Ds to me:

 

I'm agree with you (and I bet on BTR-D). Moreover if they are 2S25, it would be the first ones recorded. There is any 2S25 Sprut-SD on Oryx

Edited by Taranis
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1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

 

...

Vlad said that the Russian soldiers are basically cowards once their armor is killed off.  This is a good example of why things might look one way on paper and a different way in a tactical battle.

On paper a company sized force of mixed armor and infantry still looks pretty powerful if you knock out a couple of tanks.  The thinking is "well, the infantry is fine so there's still a lot of combat potential".  However, if the morale of the 100+ dismounts is psychologically linked to those tanks, then their combat value is also affected. 

We tactical gamers understand that a plan can completely fall apart if key assets are taken out of the fight too early.  And it might not just be the number of tanks lost, it could be what those tanks were supposed to accomplish.  If you have 10 tanks under your command and you send 3 around to flank the enemy, but lose them, your plan might not be 33% degraded it could be 100% out of commission.

...

Vlad said that the Russian infantry is cowards. That the tanks LEAD the attacks and the infantry FOLLOWS. That as soon as the vehicles pass, the Ukrainians then attack the Russian infantry, who retreat.  (Standing in front of a destroyed tank, the assumption is that after the Russian infantry is dead or has gone, the tanks are rife for ambush.)

 

Edited by c3k
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8 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Russians are retreating also east from Kyiv. Our troops liberated yesterday villages Ploske, Svitylnia and Hrebelky east from Brovary. There were first clashes near Nova Basan' - big village of Chernihiv oblast, were main mart of Russian BTG is located. On this map it pointed like already over Ukranian control, but officially this is not confirmed Зображення

Here our drone recons fly over Nova Basan' to plan the operation of mop-up of this settlement. They see Russians prepare to withdaw. The voice in radio asks what way Russians choose - to Stara Basan' or to Bykiv and says that they is going to intercept their column. After that he asks coordinates and drone operator transmit it to the pad of his assistant and he probably will send it further to recons or to artillery via battlefield information system

As if this Russian tank was captured in Nova Basan', but I still don't see strong confirmations that this settlement is our

 Зображення

Note to russian soldiers in Nova basan:  this would be a really good time to disappear from your unit and surrender. That BTG is probably gonna get smashed given that it has to move through contested (maybe better word is 'infested') areas to get back to friendly lines.

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