Ultradave Posted March 31, 2022 Share Posted March 31, 2022 8 hours ago, mosuri said: Hi Ultradave, asking for a bit more detail here. It's been decades from my last physics class but living in an area where radon can be a problem keeps you at least somewhat aware of radioactive decay ... no significant alpha emitters? AIUI U-235 is used in reactors and it decays to thorium via alpha decay (and there's plenty more alpha decay on the path down to lead, e.g., radon) but it takes aeons to do so, so unless there is massive amounts of it around there's not much alpha floating around. right? I would still avoid kicking up uranium dust, if not for anything else but for the toxic effects Significant. U is not very radioactive. Long half life = less radioactivity per unit time. The danger from the alpha emitters that may be present should be minuscule compared to the fission products that are present. Dave 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
panzermartin Posted March 31, 2022 Share Posted March 31, 2022 https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-drafts-134500-conscripts-says-they-wont-go-ukraine-2022-03-31/ Russians say they won't go to Ukraine but they had also said they are not going to invade. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sarjen Posted March 31, 2022 Share Posted March 31, 2022 43 minutes ago, CHEqTRO said: Wow. They are actually going to go ahead with this it seems. This is a worrying move, honestly. Either Germany humilliates itself in such an unprecedented way, and esentially tears NATO and the EU apart, or the Russians are going to lose a lot of their GDP in a matter of days. -snip- According to a phone call between Putin and Scholz there will be no change for the european industries. They pay Gazprom bank in Euro and the not sanctioned Gazprom bank is converting them to rubel. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Capt Posted March 31, 2022 Share Posted March 31, 2022 16 minutes ago, Fernando said: The problem I see is that at the moment the Ukrainians do not seem to be in a position to carry out large counter-attacks. I am afraid they have suffered heavy losses, so the Russians, despite their large losses, still have a strong enough force. Does anyone have any reliable data on this? Ukraine losses are likely not small but as proportion of their overall combat power? Also, I think conventional is more important here unless the UA cracks the code on how to get hybrid to conduct large offensives. I am not sure if we are seeing stalemate or just a Ukrainian recon-in-force phase. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kraze Posted March 31, 2022 Share Posted March 31, 2022 (edited) 1 hour ago, billbindc said: Cheryl Rofer is an arms control expert and physicist. She's poured some cold water on the idea that this is a serious issue. The radiation is lower in Chernobyl also because the huge chunk of the ground around CNPP was effectively turned upside down to bury radioactive reactor elements that escaped the fire sight via air and fell on the ground all around the plant. Does anyone even account for russians digging in in the most contaminated places? And breathing in, say, core's graphite dust? If this area was so safe that it takes 57 years to get a lethal dose - why was it a no go? Guarding a safe 30 km radius area would be a waste of money. Edited March 31, 2022 by kraze 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ultradave Posted March 31, 2022 Share Posted March 31, 2022 Well, ok, they were even more stupid than I imagined them to be. Like WAY more. I kind of based my assessment on previous reports of Russian troops "traveling through" the area, raising up dust and breathing in some of it. HOWEVER, note in the article that they were digging and presumably occupying trenches in the area. So they no doubt inhaled a LOT more than they would have traveling through, AND they were pretty much hugging the radioactive dirt, so getting irradiated from inside AND outside. Idiots. There are reports of 7 busloads of soldiers transported to a radiation sickness treatment center with acute radiation exposure symptoms, after being evacuated from the Chernobyl area. Now acute radiation syndrome/sickness is a very wide ranging term. The body can take quite a dose of radiation before ANY symptoms appear (roughly 160 times your yearly background dose), and then 9 times THAT dose before you receive what is termed a 50/30 dose, which means that about 50% of people receiving that dose die within 30 days. The other 50% recover but would be susceptible to increased cancer risk the rest of their lives. A guaranteed fatal dose is about another factor of 10 higher than the 50/30 dose. At doses from the onset of symptoms up to the LD 50/30 dose symptoms vary from mild nausea to incapacitating nausea, diarrhea, crushing fatigue. At the extremely high doses there are neurological issues, breakdown of blood (ionizing radiation breaks down the water in your blood and tissues and it recombines into peroxide - pleasant thought, eh?) Those guys are most likely already dead by now if they received that kind of dose. A few sources for the evacuation and trench digging. The rest is my own knowledge from working in the radiation protection and emergency response field for many years. All those levels are rough but should get the idea across. https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/retreating-russian-troops-leaving-chernobyl-26596437 https://www.newsweek.com/chernobyl-russia-troops-ukraine-yemelianenko-nuclear-1693714 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted March 31, 2022 Share Posted March 31, 2022 (edited) 3 hours ago, Taranis said: Couldn't be BTR-4E from 80 Air Assault Brigade ? I've read somewhere that Air Assault units had some BTR-4E and BTR-3 priority (like 25 Airmobile and 95 Air Assault Brigade) 25th airborne had some BTR-3/4 in 2016-2017. About 80th they had BTR-80 and HMMWV M1114 and I never seen BTR-4E in their service. Air-assault in last years have been receiving mostly Kozak 2/2M and BTR-3DA, maybe Varta too Edited March 31, 2022 by Haiduk 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan/california Posted March 31, 2022 Share Posted March 31, 2022 (edited) quote failed, will try again Edited March 31, 2022 by dan/california 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheVulture Posted March 31, 2022 Share Posted March 31, 2022 Further corroboration of Russia withdrawing to some extent NW of Kiev. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CHEqTRO Posted March 31, 2022 Share Posted March 31, 2022 1 hour ago, Sarjen said: According to a phone call between Putin and Scholz there will be no change for the european industries. They pay Gazprom bank in Euro and the not sanctioned Gazprom bank is converting them to rubel. That was what was said yesterday indeed, nevertheless the law proposal made by Putin seems to contradict that. The article from RIA seems to indicate that European buyers would need to open accounts in Russian banks and make their transactions in rubles. Also, the germans had this to say today: 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sburke Posted March 31, 2022 Share Posted March 31, 2022 I admit to being kind of amused at these "Russia will do this and declare a ceasefire..." You can't declare a unilateral ceasefire unless you are really in a dominant military position. You can ask for one, but the other side has a say. Ukraine will have a set of conditions for the ceasefire which they have already started establishing. The key one being Russia recognizing the territorial integrity of Ukraine. I don't think they will insist on Crimea beyond an internationally managed referendum there. It will however mean the end of DPR/LNR. I don't see Putin agreeing to that. So the war will go on until Russia is simply unable to maintain their forces in the field either because of a military collapse or a political "transition" back in Moscow and a unilateral withdrawal. The cracks are appearing for Putin. Incidents of soldiers refusing to serve in Ukraine . Too much of the army is being committed to this with potential risk of instability elsewhere. Too many of the various power blocs now have a reason to consider a Russia without Putin. The cost of the war which so far he has managed to hide will become apparent. The butchers bill will come due. Putin is in a situation where everyday things get a little worse and he is not in a position of controlling the narrative. 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheVulture Posted March 31, 2022 Share Posted March 31, 2022 (edited) Hopefully giving Ukraine more resources to be able to counterattack with greater effect Edited March 31, 2022 by TheVulture 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bil Hardenberger Posted March 31, 2022 Share Posted March 31, 2022 (edited) 2 hours ago, The_Capt said: Does anyone have any reliable data on this? Ukraine losses are likely not small but as proportion of their overall combat power? Also, I think conventional is more important here unless the UA cracks the code on how to get hybrid to conduct large offensives. I am not sure if we are seeing stalemate or just a Ukrainian recon-in-force phase. I have been thinking about this too.. many people are asking, where is the Ukrainian armor? They do seem to be pushing light infantry to the front, with only scattered mechanized forces actually being used so far. They are engaging the enemy with the smallest force required to do the job.. that is very smart... can it be that they have been husbanding there main striking power (mechanized forces) and waiting for the perfect opportunity? Granted it is a huge risk to concentrate mechanized forces for a counter-attack, the Russians do have a significant indirect fire capability at the BTG level (and the Ukrainians were taught that lesson in 2014). But if they are holding these forces back, waiting for the intel to tell them the right place and time... it could be a huge knock out blow that nobody, especially the Russians, see coming. Bil Edited March 31, 2022 by Bil Hardenberger 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted March 31, 2022 Share Posted March 31, 2022 (edited) 18 minutes ago, Bil Hardenberger said: I have been thinking about this too.. many people are asking, where is the Ukrainian armor? It fully involved on Donbas, where the war has more "traditional" form. It involved in Sumy oblast and Kharkiv - Russian BTGs in Trostianets and Rohan' were defeated not with lihgt infantry (though with their assist). Our "line troops" too busy to make footage, also a censorship there is more tough than in volunteers/TD and Azov, which since 2014 have made PR for itself. You can see Oryx about our losses, we lost about 70 tanks. So, they in fight. Full picture, how our mech. and tank brigades fought, we can receive only after the war. Edited March 31, 2022 by Haiduk 10 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan/california Posted March 31, 2022 Share Posted March 31, 2022 10 minutes ago, Bil Hardenberger said: I have been thinking about this too.. many people are asking, where is the Ukrainian armor? They do seem to be pushing light infantry to the front, with only scattered mechanized forces actually being used so far. They are engaging the enemy with the smallest force required to do the job.. that is very smart... can it be that they have been husbanding there main striking power (mechanized forces) and waiting for the perfect opportunity? Granted it is a huge risk to concentrate mechanized forces for a counter-attack, the Russians do have a significant indirect fire capability at the BTG level (and the Ukrainians were taught that lesson in 2014). But if they are holding these forces back, waiting for the intel to tell them the right place and time... it could be a huge knock out blow that nobody, especially the Russians, see coming. Bil Ukraine thus far has shown extraordinary discipline in playing prevent defense. They have simply let the Russians exhaust themselves in in attacks that achieve little at great price. We have seen in the last four days around Sumy and Kharkiv what happens when the exhaustion becomes complete. The Russian positions just roll up like a bad rug. If this mornings report about the Russians abandoning Hostomel airport are true the same thing is happening now around more of Kyiv. I don't think the Ukrainians are going to change strategies until this one stops working. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vet 0369 Posted March 31, 2022 Share Posted March 31, 2022 14 hours ago, akd said: Pray tell, how will they be developing these new energy resources? Western energy companies will be tripping over each other to be “first in” as soon as the sanctions are removed. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted March 31, 2022 Share Posted March 31, 2022 (edited) Ukrainain TD and Emergency service recovered Russian T-72B3, which fell from the tiny bridge to the river in first days of war. Crew is dead. One tanker could bail out, but was crushed by turret, when tank rolled over Edited March 31, 2022 by Haiduk 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bil Hardenberger Posted March 31, 2022 Share Posted March 31, 2022 9 minutes ago, Haiduk said: It fully involved on Donbas, where the war has more "traditional" form. It involved in Sumy oblast and Kharkiv - Russian BTGs in Trostianets and Rohan' were defeated not with lihgt infantry (though with their assist). Our "line troops" too busy to make footage, also a censorship there is more tough than in volunteers/TD and Azov, which since 2014 have made PR for itself. You can see Oryx about our losses, we lost about 70 tanks. So, they in fight. Granted... I know there are some Mech. forces in the fight... however there must be a pretty healthy reserve waiting in the background... I doubt the whole force, or even most of it, is currently engaged... Quote Full picture, how our mech. and tank brigades fought, we can receive only after the war. ...but we'll see. Best to you and your family Haiduk. You are an invaluable link and resource for us during this nightmare going on in your country. Bil 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greup Posted March 31, 2022 Share Posted March 31, 2022 12 hours ago, dan/california said: This is a reach, but hear me out. There is a small but real possibility that this war recreates the the Grand Duchy of Lithuania, By which i mean a combination of The Baltics, Poland, Ukraine, Slovenia, and ?????. [snip] Tell me why i'm crazy. Why you are crazy? I don’t see where Slovenia would fit into your fantasy fiefdom. But then again, who can tell those European countries apart? Slovenia or Slovakia? Sweden or Switzerland? So many and frankly, who cares? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlsatianFelix Posted March 31, 2022 Share Posted March 31, 2022 I go way back to CM:BO but haven't been around for years. I knew this group would have interesting ideas and comments about Ukraine. Haven't been disappointed. The scale of Russian losses at Trostyanets is staggering. This video is more on the topic with a good interview of a Ukrainian soldier talking about the tactics they use. Adding 130,000 Russian conscripts alone won't change anything but the body count. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danfrodo Posted March 31, 2022 Share Posted March 31, 2022 Saw last night and today that poll shows 83% of russians support war against ukraine. This is an absurd thing to report as if it's true. In a country where even calling it a 'war' gets you 15 years in prison, who's gonna tell the poll they oppose it? It'd be like looking at popularity polls of kim jong un in N Korea. "new poll shows 100% popular support for N Korean leader, deeply contradicting what outside experts were saying" 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danfrodo Posted March 31, 2022 Share Posted March 31, 2022 18 minutes ago, AlsatianFelix said: I go way back to CM:BO but haven't been around for years. I knew this group would have interesting ideas and comments about Ukraine. Haven't been disappointed. The scale of Russian losses at Trostyanets is staggering. This video is more on the topic with a good interview of a Ukrainian soldier talking about the tactics they use. Adding 130,000 Russian conscripts alone won't change anything but the body count. wow, thanks for sharing that video. Really shows just how badly russians got hit here, and the intensity of the fighting. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billbindc Posted March 31, 2022 Share Posted March 31, 2022 27 minutes ago, Haiduk said: Seeing reports Russians are retreating from Hostomel and Bucha. True? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted March 31, 2022 Share Posted March 31, 2022 Just now, billbindc said: Seeing reports Russians are retreating from Hostomel and Bucha. True? Yes. But this is unofficially jet. Our command says "There will be good news soon" 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted March 31, 2022 Share Posted March 31, 2022 (edited) Heavy clashes around Izium, when both sides suffered big losses. Izium battle probably will most significant in hystory of this war, but all development we will know much later... Ukrianian lost vehicles probably in the town area, which uder Russian control (we still control southern part): 4 BTR-4E1 of 92nd mech.brigade and armored car Triton, captured by Russians (already with Z) - experimental vehcile, which was produced in very small number and served in State Border Guard Service. It have to be equipped with surveilence cameras (i.e. thermal), raising on the mast. And decapitated Russian tank also from there Edited March 31, 2022 by Haiduk 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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