How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Kinophile]

This is just sad. Unmotivated, cold, wet and with vehicles randomly blowing up around you. Plus the entire population giving you the finger.

Go home, Ivan. 

Vote with your feet. It's the only vote you've got.

Edited March 10, 2022 by Kinophile

[BeondTheGrave]

3 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

#osinttechnical:

This is one of the major issues Russia is running into. They are using heavily mechanized formations to try and break through largely infantry based Ukrainian forces.

That difference in force format seems to be the fundamental factor between the two armies - UKR is motivated and trained enough to fight operationally dispersed, RUS arm is strait-jacketed by out of date training, rigid leadership and self-defeating goals.

I've a half-made UKR campaign still sitting around somewhere, about a UKR retreat under constant RUS mechanised attack, and I do remember noticing how AT infantry were utterly vital to stalling the pursuit. BTRs were useful but it was flooding my infantry with AT weapons that really did the damage.

Wasn't the Ukrainian Army heavily mechanized before this war though? What happened to all those Oplots and BTR-4s? 

IMO this is an artifact of the selective bias introduced by OSINT. We havn't seen a lot of UA combat footage, and we havn't seen as much footage from out in the countryside. Either UA armor was totally destroyed in the first days, a bad sign which went unreported, or it continues to operate and were just getting a partial picture. 

If you assume that a lot of UA's social media activity is a controlled narrative, it makes a lot of sense to focus on Panzerfausts and NLAWs rather than victories won by Oplots. The west is feeding you ATGMs not tanks, show they being used! 

[danfrodo]

The videos we do see w abandonded/destroyed russian equipment show UKR folks just walking around without concern.  Which perhaps indicates that those red areas on the situation maps should be polka dots, not solid areas.  How is it that UKR is owning the terrain around these very valuable russian assets?  Because as was stated earlier, they only control the land they stand on.  Every new destroyed Russian unit makes me feel better as to Steve's 'collapse' theory

[Kinophile]

It was/is mechanized but my impression is they're holding back, spot-fighting in support and occasional counter-attacks. I saw one opinion that tanks are used to draw the RUS armor, moths to a flame, which are then slammed by ATGM screens.

That said, the UKR gov do list several hundred UKR MBTs destroyed/captured, which shakes out. It makes some operational sense to penny packet your tanks behind a dispersed and flexible AT inf force, so long as you can rely on that force. Which, with 17K AT weapons provided and an extremely motivated infantry, I think they can.

If UKR can get proper, coordinated and redundant suppression of RUF battlefield Air then a large scale counter attack with those saved tanks could be very dangerous. 

As noted by others, UKR cannot attack until they can deal with the RUS Air. I dont believe MIGs will do it, but a flexible, networked AA/AD would be sufficient, based on how chickensh*t the RUS AF is when faced with something other than children in schools and mothers in hospitals. Assh*les.

Edited March 10, 2022 by Kinophile

[Kraft]

 

[TheVulture]

24 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

There is nothing wrong with that translation:

View on the meliorative canal and a water meadow Stock Photo - Alamy

Well I live and learn.  Might just be that I'm a city dweller,  and people living rurally would be more familiar with the term.  Or if might just be a US / UK language difference ('berm' for example seems in more common use in the US, and probably is in the UK in engineering circles, but I'd guess that the majority of brits have never come across the word in their life)

[Haiduk]

24 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

 

 

8th or 9th of March. Borodianka town

[kraze]

21 minutes ago, BeondTheGrave said:

Wasn't the Ukrainian Army heavily mechanized before this war though? What happened to all those Oplots and BTR-4s? 

IMO this is an artifact of the selective bias introduced by OSINT. We havn't seen a lot of UA combat footage, and we havn't seen as much footage from out in the countryside. Either UA armor was totally destroyed in the first days, a bad sign which went unreported, or it continues to operate and were just getting a partial picture. 

If you assume that a lot of UA's social media activity is a controlled narrative, it makes a lot of sense to focus on Panzerfausts and NLAWs rather than victories won by Oplots. The west is feeding you ATGMs not tanks, show they being used! 

There are videos with Ukrainian tanks in action but our army probably quickly realized infantry is way better at it.

Our MoD also stated we lost more than 40 tanks but that was about a week ago, still - probably made up for most of our losses with more advanced captures. Just need to saw those grills off.

 

 

[Haiduk]

25 minutes ago, BeondTheGrave said:

Wasn't the Ukrainian Army heavily mechanized before this war though? What happened to all those Oplots and BTR-4s? 

We havn't BM Oplot on armament, except 5 T-84 Oplot mod.2001. BTR-4E has been fighting around Kharkiv in 92nd mech.brigade. 15 of them already lost. Yes, our trops "heavy mechanized" too, but in current time defense operations their vehciles have more support and transport than combat function. Main role now plays artillery, aviation and mobile AT-groups. 

Edited March 10, 2022 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

T-72B and MTLB of 6th Gard tank regiment, captured near Brovary. T-72B drives to Brovary with escort of police car

 

 

Edited March 10, 2022 by Haiduk

[Bulletpoint]

@Haiduk It seems to me from the videos I see that in the beginning of the war, Ukrainians destroyed captured enemy vehicles quickly, but now you are increasingly starting to recover them and send them back to be used again? Do you think that is correct?

[sburke]

21 minutes ago, Kraft said:

 

wait till these twits find out that it is quite a bit more then 500 and that the Russian army is getting gutted.  They'll be lucky if they can threaten Lichtenstein when this is over.  At least they recognize that as it stands there is no political/strategic victory within their grasp and the cost will be ongoing.

Edited March 10, 2022 by sburke

[Boche]

2 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Here is Youtube-version. Looks like this is today counter-atack on Moshchun village on the left bank of Irpin' river, where Russians sneaked, crossing the river. Enemy was threw back. And, yes there is terrain with dense twigs and trees 

 

Also good to see those Spanish Instalanza C90´s in action.

[Lethaface]

7 hours ago, slysniper said:

I have been staying out of the conversation about the war.

But have been watching the thread daily since this is somewhat my best news source.

but I do want to point out (who would have thought CMBS AI was playing the Russians more realistically than we ever thought)

 

 

A nice group packed way too close together, the Russians seem to keep doing it, each day they don't seem to learn from the last.

 

 

 

 

 

 

In your tournament Ru leadership wouldn't do very well I guess 

[Sequoia]

3 minutes ago, Boche said:

Also good to see those Spanish Instalanza C90´s in action.

No one expects the Spanish Instalanza.

[DesertFox]

40 minutes ago, TheVulture said:

Well I live and learn.  Might just be that I'm a city dweller,  and people living rurally would be more familiar with the term.  Or if might just be a US / UK language difference ('berm' for example seems in more common use in the US, and probably is in the UK in engineering circles, but I'd guess that the majority of brits have never come across the word in their life)

I guess the term is only used in specific areas like hydroengineering, soil science and landscaping and not in general language where it has a more generally used synonimous word also. Example: In german language the proper general term would be "Entwässerungskanal" which means drainage channel if I´m not mistaken. However in hydroengineering and landscaping the specific term would indeed also be Meliorisationskanal.  But please don´t ask me what the difference between a drainage channel and a meliorisation channel would be. I honestly don´t know 

Edited March 10, 2022 by DesertFox

[Phantom Captain]

4 minutes ago, Sequoia said:

No one expects the Spanish Instalanza.

FTW!  

[DesertFox]

My goodness, another Pantsir...

 

edit: nope we already have had that one 3 days ago:

 

 

 

Edited March 10, 2022 by DesertFox

[Armorgunner]

I Cry every time I see all these civilians being murdered, by Adolf Putin . But at the same time, I am so proud of all Ukrainians. Who join in the defence of their communities, and Cities!! Those Russian soldiers are just looters, rapists, and murderers. They are nothing better than the German SS during WW2!

 

Downbelow, they admits looting and murder! ****ers!

 

 

 

[Haiduk]

Russian 9S18 radar for Buk SAM, destroyed on 5th of Marh

[womble]

1 hour ago, Offshoot said:

Four out of the five planes mentioned are leased planes from Boeing and Airbus,

Their leased nature might explain it: those planes will have to return to the lessor, very soon, in order for the leasing companies to comply with sanctions (IIRC, they have 45 days from S-day to stop working for the Russkies). If the Russians want to pull some sort of shenanigans in order to prevent them returning to their actual owners, that might result in distress calls.

[Haiduk]

32 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

@Haiduk It seems to me from the videos I see that in the beginning of the war, Ukrainians destroyed captured enemy vehicles quickly, but now you are increasingly starting to recover them and send them back to be used again? Do you think that is correct?

Yes. It's a joke now about contest between farmers, which want to take captured vechicles to own homestead to disasseble it on metal, territorial defense, which wants to burn abandoned vehciles immediately and Army, which wants to recover this stuff

Edited March 10, 2022 by Haiduk

[sburke]

11 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

My goodness, another Pantsir...

 

edit: nope we already have had that one 3 days ago:

 

 

 

"In very good condition"?  Now that's a rare find!

[Vet 0369]

5 hours ago, John Kettler said:

keas66,

Please tell me how much you read and from which link before questioning my sanity? I provided a ton of information in those links, and it's by no means confined to any one link. Funding, biolab locations, the provision of diplomatic protections to all US staff (for example, in Georgia), the exclusion of nationals from Level Three areas (limited to US only and must have a security clearance), arrangements with Ukrainian authorities, official statements (via open letter to Zelensky and two others) from Rada members regarding the biolabs in Ukraine, the almost 1000 fatalities associated with them and concern the bioagents in them might be targeted against Ukrainians, introduction to Georgia of known virus vector biting flies from the Philippines (!), the temporal connection between the putting the insect lab online in Tbilisi, Georgia, the outbreak of biting flies there and rapid appearance of these same insect invaders in Dagestan, Russia, all in 2014.

Showed official statements from Russia's MoD and China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs. I showed maps Bulgarian journalists had done showing where the biolabs in Ukraine were located. Provided a list of the agents allegedly found or destroyed in one biolab (L'viv) and the Ukrainian Ministry of Health purported pathogen destruction order of February 22, the day the invasion of Ukraine began. Showed multiple programs were underway in them with direct applicability to BW and that the Russians had been sounding the alarm of the BW threat from those biolabs since 2015. Pointed out the US Army had done a multi-year study specifically using insects as vectors for viruses in a testing program on humans. Previously pointed out DARPA work on using insects as carriers to deliver gene-altering viruses to plants and animals alike and the BW implications of that. Now, let me give you something else to chew on. Here is an excerpt from the below super long, article I provided a link to before. And all of this is from an article written in 2017!

https://goldenageofgaia.com/2020/04/20/pentagon-biological-weapons-program-never-ended/

 

US Defense Agency Tests GM Insects to Transmit GM Viruses

The Pentagon has invested at least $65 million in gene editing. The US Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) has awarded 7 research teams to develop tools for genome engineering in insects, rodents and bacteria under DARPA’s Safe Gene program, using a novel CRISPR-Cas9 technology.

Under another military program – Insect Allies – GM insects are engineered to transfer modified genes to plants. The $10.3 million DARPA project includes both gene editing in insects and in the viruses that they transmit. Ecological Niche-preference Engineering is a third ongoing military program for genome engineering in insects. The Pentagon’s stated objective is to engineer GM organisms so that they can resist certain temperatures, change their habitat and food sources.

© fbo.gov

Genetically Engineered Humans

Besides gene editing in insects and in the viruses they transmit, the Pentagon wants to engineer humans as well.

DARPA Advanced Tools for Mammalian Genome EngineeringProject seeks to create a biological platform inside the human body, using it to deliver new genetic information, and thus altering humans at the DNA level.

DARPA wants to insert an additional 47^th artificial chromosome into human cells. This chromosome will deliver new genes that will be used for engineering the human body. SynPloid Biotek LLC has been awarded two contracts under the program totaling $1.1 million (2015-2016 – $100,600 for the first phase of the research; 2015-2017 – $999,300 for work which is not specified in the federal contracts registry). The company has only two employees and no previous record on bio-research.

Top Secret Research on Synthetic Viruses

Between 2008 and 2014, the United States invested approximately $820 million in synthetic biology research, Defense being a major contributor. Much of the military projects on synthetic biology are classified, among them are a number of classified studies by the secretive JASON group of US military advisors – e.g. Emerging Viruses and Genome Editing for the Pentagon, and Synthetic Viruses for the National Counterterrorism Center.

JASON is an independent scientific advisory group that provides consulting services to the U.S. government on matters of defense, science and technology. It was established in 1960 and most of their resulting JASON reports are classified. For administrative purposes, JASON’s projects are run by the MITRE Corporation, which has contracts with the Defense Department, CIA and the FBI. Since 2014 MITRE has been awarded some $27.4 million in contracts with the DoD.

Although the JASON Reports are classified, another US Air Force study titled Biotechnology: Genetically Engineered Pathogens, sheds some light on what the secretive JASON group has researched – 5 groups of genetically engineered pathogens that can be used as bio-weapons. These are binary biological weapons (a lethal combination of two viruses), host swapping diseases (animal viruses that ‘jump’ to humans, like the Ebola virus), stealth viruses, and designer diseases.Designer diseases can be engineered to target a certain ethnic group, meaning that they can be used as ethnic bio-weapons.

Ethnic Bioweapons

Ethnic biological weapon (biogenetic weapon) is a theoretical weapon that aims to primarily harm people of specific ethnicities, or genotypes.

Although officially the research and development of ethnic bio-weapons have never been publicly confirmed, documents show that the US collects biological material from certain ethnic groups – Russians and Chinese.

The US Air Force has been specifically collecting Russian RNA and synovial tissue samples, raising fears in Moscow of a covert US ethnic bio-weapons program.
 

Is it going to take the written (and perhaps video) equivalent of an artillery barrage to get you and others here to wake up and see what's been going on, since when, where, how funded, doing what and how it all fits into the context of the grim history of US BW? If what I've provided, presuming you've read it doesn't convince you there is and has been a real threat from those US controlled (DOD via DTRA) biolabs in Ukraine then logically you must be, variously, unable to understand what I've provided and its implications, unable accept thoroughly unpalatable reality, deliberately choosing ignorance, attacking the messenger, etc.

Regards,

John Kettler

 

 

Looks like something from the National Inquirer. Congratulations John, you’ve earned another Ignore.

[DesertFox]

Umm, Panzerbuechse, anyone?