How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[BeondTheGrave]

3 minutes ago, Holien said:

OK a question for our Ukrainian friends what's the Sand for?

One witty (meant in good humour to our German allies) response...

Answers funny or truth on a postcard...

Truth: probably a road block. Sand is cheap and easy to plop, but a pain to get a vehicle around until a dozer comes and clears it. Maybe a tanks treads would flatten it? Put a mine in it for an extra good time.

Funny: Russian soldiers may think theyve been deployed to the Caribbean and stop for sun and tequila and grind the whole offensive to a stop.

 

Also: Welcome to thread page 100 boys

Edited March 2, 2022 by BeondTheGrave

[Baneman]

Is it all sand ?

I can't tell for sure myself as the pic is small, but it looks to me a bit like sand holding down the edges of a tarp covering something.

Edited March 2, 2022 by Baneman

[keas66]

Thoughts on unofficial support for  Allied Mercenary units operating in the Ukraine as an approach to avoid direct NATO confrontation  ? I mean beyond the Ukrainian Foreign  Legion being set up .

[panzermartin]

I can't understand what the russian troops are doing. Abandoning their equipment just to be used against them later. They didnt have orders to blow them up? One lowlife would at least sell them to the UKR army. These are worth millions and are invaluable, maybe even more than the material the West is sending. 

[c3k]

22 hours ago, chris talpas said:

Long time lurker who harkens back to the original beyond overlord days.

Thank you Steve and BFCElvis for letting this thread go on, and your reasonable moderation policy.  Thank you as well Steve for the insightful commentary; I find it a very useful and informed source of information -Your background in Soviet and Russian military history and the time spent beforehand in scoping out the backstory around CMBS which has turned out to be prescient.  Thank you as well for the countless hours of enjoyment I've had over the years playing your creations!

To the contributers -thank you as well for the information and commentary.  It makes for a good sanity check against the other sources of information that bounce around out there.

To Haiduk -I wish you all the best for success and safety in defending against this onslaught driven by one man whose actions right now do not seem rationale

To the people of Ukraine: Slava Ukraini!

To the people of the rest of the world -keep pressure on your governments to continue to help Ukraine with meaningul aid and punish Russia till they withdraw.

Finally to the people of Russia: I hope that Vladamir Putin's days as your leader are short and that you have a real democratic opening.  I think the west bears no ill will to Russian people.  I think most of the world would welcome a democratic and economically thriving Russia.

Chris

 

Well said.

[kraze]

9 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

I can't understand what the russian troops are doing. Abandoning their equipment just to be used against them later. They didnt have orders to blow them up? One lowlife would at least sell them to the UKR army. These are worth millions and are invaluable, maybe even more than the material the West is sending. 

Low morale. You were told you are a part of a Chosen One ethnicity that can't be defeated and Ukrainians are nothing but lowly farmers - but you just saw half of the previous guys returning in body bags / not returning at all (or smell that mobile crematorium working day and night) - and then you are being send in there, see the tank crew nearby getting grilled on that very grill they installed by the NLAW, while your old soviet BMP runs out of fuel due to Bayraktars from another era ****ing up your fuel convoy - while your analog radio can't reach command and your food supply is 7 years past expiration date - so you only think "screw you guys, I'm going home".

Edited March 2, 2022 by kraze

[Thomm]

2 minutes ago, kraze said:

"... and you only think "screw you guys, I'm going home".

I wonder what will happen to those who decide to do so ... when they arrive back home.

[Sarjen]

2 minutes ago, kraze said:

Low morale. You were told you are a part of a Chosen One ethnicity that can't be defeated and Ukrainians are nothing but lowly farmers - but you just saw half of the previous guys returning in body bags / not returning at all (or smell that mobile crematorium working day and night) - and then you are being send in there, see the tank crew nearby getting grilled on that very grill they installed by the NLAW, while your old soviet BMP runs out of fuel due to Bayraktars from another era ****ing up your fuel convoy - and you only think "screw you guys, I'm going home".

And Ukraine has to actively undermine the moral of the Russian soldiers. There is only a short time frame becoming battle accustomed. They should use their drones to throw papers in Russian detailing to what extent their leader has them used and fooled. Ofc this in addition to the tools of social media. But i heard the phones were taken away from the Russian soldiers. So it can't hurt to do it the "old" way, too.

[LongLeftFlank]

22 minutes ago, Holien said:

OK a question for our Ukrainian friends what's the Sand for?

One witty (meant in good humour to our German allies) response...

Answers funny or truth on a postcard...

I'd reveal what's concealed inside those sand piles, but that would be Teller....

On a different topic, and to cheer up our good @Kraze a bit, could we talk a little about long range sniping? Long range head shots being a extremely convincing and personal way of persuading unwanted c̶o̶u̶s̶i̶n̶s̶ neighbours to GTFH....

Plenty of hunting rifles (and marksmen) available in Ukraine, I take it? Surplus SVDs? Anything the West ought to be sending along in bulk in care packages?

[George MC]

I’m assuming this is one units orders and objectives?

 

 

[Markus86]

Just now, George MC said:

I’m assuming this is one units orders and objectives?

 

Google translate:

Due to the successful actions of one of the units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the Russian occupiers are losing not only equipment and manpower.
In a panic, they leave secret documents. Thus, we have at our disposal the planning documents of one of the units of the battalion tactical group of the 810th separate brigade of marines of the Black Sea Fleet of the Russian Federation.
Among the received documents are a work card, combat mission, call sign table, control signal tables, hidden control tables, personnel list, etc.
Based on the information received, it is known that the planning documents for the war with Ukraine were approved on January 18, 22, and the operation to capture Ukraine itself must take place within 15 days, namely from 20.02. till 06.03.
The enemy unit was to disembark from the Orsk VDK in the area of the Stepanovka-1 settlement and further act with the military units of the 58th Army of the Russian Federation, namely with the 177th Separate Regiment of Marines of the Russian Black Sea Fleet. The ultimate goal of these forces was to blockade and take control of Melitopol.
So, when once again one of the prisoners says that he came to study and got lost - do not believe it! They knew, they carefully planned and prepared. And we will say one thing to the Russian occupiers: leave your equipment and secret documents in the future, we will need them, the first for our defenders, and the second for The Hague.

[db_zero]

Don’t know if any Western military still used or have any of these left, but the old LAW rocket would be ideal to give out to all the civilians or even regular soldiers.

Small, light highly portable it’s still highly effective against the lighter armored personnel carriers and modern IFVs. Better than a Molotov and it’s cheap. It’s relatively easy to use.

Against a modern tank it’s not effective in most cases, but in an urban environment where you could take shots from an elevated position and aim for the top areas especially the top rear engine compartment area, it would be effective. Its also capable of breaking the tracks of a modern AFV.

Edited March 2, 2022 by db_zero

[Haiduk]

After yesterday destroying of the Russian columns near Bashtanka (the photo above with Pantsyr - this is form this place), territorial defense is continuing to catch Russians, which scatetred across the fields. They havn't food and water. They are saying all their rations were with a count of three-day action. So, they are wondering across the villages and asking to eat something. Here the group of Russians, capturing near Bashtanka by territorial defense fighters

And here is Russians, which landed today in Mykolaiv. Four helicoters landed the group of 10th Special forces brigade. Here those, who survived

 

Edited March 2, 2022 by Haiduk

[akd]

N/t

Edited March 2, 2022 by akd

[db_zero]

36 minutes ago, keas66 said:

Thoughts on unofficial support for  Allied Mercenary units operating in the Ukraine as an approach to avoid direct NATO confrontation  ? I mean beyond the Ukrainian Foreign  Legion being set up .

Perhaps an AVG like group for pilots might also be useful although getting hands on Russian aircraft and helicopters might be a problem. Might not be kosher if they flew western aircraft.

Buying more Turkish drones that Ukraine already used and having them operated by Allied mercenary volunteers with previous drone experience is also an idea. 
 

You could also crowdspace the financing the purchase of the drones.

Edited March 2, 2022 by db_zero

[LongLeftFlank]

12 minutes ago, George MC said:

I’m assuming this is one units orders and objectives?

 

 

Scenario design gold, when all this is over....

 

[BeondTheGrave]

9 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

After yesterday destroying of the Russian columns near Bashtanka (the photo above with Pantsyr - this is form this place), territorial defense is continuing to catch Russians, which scatetred across the fields. They havn't food and water. They are saying all their rations were with a count of three-day action. So, they are wondering across the villages and asking to eat something. Here the group of Russians, capturing near Bashtanka by territorial defense fighters

And here is Russians, which landed today in Mykolaiv. Four helicoters landed the group of 10th Special forces brigade. Here those, who survived

 

Could you imagine getting your POW photo taken in front of the WWII memorial? Amazing. 

also #Cryptobros

Keep the money laundering going. 

Edited March 2, 2022 by BeondTheGrave

[Panserjeger]

8 minutes ago, db_zero said:

Don’t know if any Western military still used or have any of these left, but the old LAW rocket would be ideal to give out to all the civilians or even regular soldiers.

Small, light highly portable it’s still highly effective against the lighter armored personnel carriers and modern IFVs. Better than a Molotov and it’s cheap. It’s relatively easy to use.

Against a modern tank it’s not effective in most cases, but in an urban environment where you could take shots from an elevated position and aim for the top areas especially the top rear engine compartment area, it would be effective. Its also capable of breaking the tracks of a modern AFV.

The M-72 is still being produced by Norwegian firm Nammo, 2000 of them are on their way from Norway to Ukraine now. 

Pål

[Holien]

Looks like the chaps in Blue according to that battle plan had no chance...

[Battlefront.com]

27 minutes ago, kraze said:

Low morale. You were told you are a part of a Chosen One ethnicity that can't be defeated and Ukrainians are nothing but lowly farmers - but you just saw half of the previous guys returning in body bags / not returning at all (or smell that mobile crematorium working day and night) - and then you are being send in there, see the tank crew nearby getting grilled on that very grill they installed by the NLAW, while your old soviet BMP runs out of fuel due to Bayraktars from another era ****ing up your fuel convoy - while your analog radio can't reach command and your food supply is 7 years past expiration date - so you only think "screw you guys, I'm going home".

This!  The Germans wrote a lot about this very same thing after WW2.  They were told, in no uncertain terms, that the Slavs were inferior to them in every single way.  The early part of the war against the Soviet Union was a mixed bag.  Strategically and operationally the average German soldier saw how well they were doing, and even tactically they saw it when hordes of Soviets threw down their arms.  But they also came upon situations where Soviets would fight to the death even though they clearly had lost all chance of coming out ahead.  As the war went on, of course, the Germans saw less success and more tough fighting.  Morale dropped along with the change.

 

5 hours ago, domfluff said:

Since Javelins can be used against helicopters and also individuals, I suspect it'd do fine against a landing craft.

They should be very effective.  In Top Attack Mode they lock onto a heat signature and hit it from above no matter how fast or what direction it is going in.  It can't avoid intervening obstacles like trees, it can't make sharp maneuvers, or change course in any radical way.  Which would mean that a warm metal object on a flat and uniformly cool surface with no intervening terrain would be an easy hit.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

A couple of you guys a couple pages ago (hey, contrats... this is the 100th page!) mentioned about the financial value of all the equipment lost by Russian forces so far.  This is a massive thing to consider.

Ask yourself... why does the Russian military have so much 30-40 year old equipment?  Answer... because it couldn't afford the money to replace them with new production even under the best of times.  Who thinks the Russian economy is going to be anything other than in survival mode for the next 5 years at least?  I do. 

Therefore, it is clear that after this war ends (even if Ukraine technically loses) that the Russian military will by necessity be smaller than it was before the invasion.

Steve

[Probus]

So we are at page 100.

What kinds of equipment, functions, capabilities have we witnessed that need to be included in the next release of Black Sea?

- Move command to advance backwards as a shield for infantry. 
- Reduction in effectiveness of Russian armor or increase in effectiveness of Western AT weapons. 
- Ukranian Partisans. 
- ...

[Panserjeger]

Unfortunately this variant is still just under development, extremely low-cost using civilian drones:

https://www.nammo.com/story/drone-mounted-m72-shows-promising-results/

[rocketman]

I haven't followed this thread yet and won't read through the 100 pages, so forgive me if this has been asked before: Has Ukraine released any figures for number of captured POWs? That could be a good indicator of the fighting morale, or lack thereof, of the Russian forces.

[danfrodo]

I just looked over the posts from the my overnight.  Thanks all, great stuff.  Some thoughts:

Can we please start using NATO drones to knock out russian convoys?  Just say that we gave new drones to the Ukrainians.  Russians will know we are lying, so what? 

Russians funding far-right fascists in western nations -- no way!  But on the other hand, it's so beautiful: nazis and bolshies holding hands, finding romance through their common love of racism, oppression and authoritarianism.  Maybe a movie in the works?  A rom-com starring Vladimir Putin and (place fave fascist here)

looks like continued success, at least locally, for the blue & gold side.  And another airborne attack crushed?  is that verified?  Makes my little heart go pitter patter.