How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Bulletpoint]

I'd like to know how much of this is Russian army/leadership incompetence, and how much of it is that most of the average soldiers simply don't want to fight this war.

If I were being ordered to sudddenly fight Sweden for example, I'd also quickly "run out of fuel".

[kraze]

1 hour ago, Sarjen said:

*snip*

Russia is incapable of comprehending concepts like trade wars and economic pressure. That's a 21st century thing.

Russian mentality is permanently stuck in mid-20th century where might decides everything.

Also Russia never ever considered our military threatening, again - remember they fully expected full occupation in 2 days and were absolutely, fanatically convinced in their armed forces being the strongest in the world.

Such delusions are a common thing among backwards nations.

Edited March 1, 2022 by kraze

[theforger]

from instagram nicklaidthelaw and @sbreakintl

apologies if this has already been seen...quite tricky keeping pace with this thread.

[Vet 0369]

1 hour ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Wow, this endemic 'out of gas and abandoned' clusterf$^* sounds just like a replay of the pathetic fate of the huge Soviet Mechanized Corps in 1941.

Or HG Wells 'War of the Worlds', where the seemingly unstoppable Martians all die of the common cold....

I mean, wasn't Russia basically a petro state last time I looked? You'd think of all the great powers, they would have remembered this small detail....

Hmmm, I seem to remember a novel I read around 1986 titled, “Red Storm Rising” by Tom Clancy, and Larry Bond The premise was that the Soviet oil reserves were almost depleted, and that had to pump water into the wells to force out as much oil as possible. 
 

is it possible that Russia is experiencing a potential major disruption in it’s economy, outside of the obvious impact from the recent world sanctions? I will say this, it scared the crap out of me because it was sooo believable!

[The_Capt]

1 hour ago, Aragorn2002 said:

How on Gods green earth can they not have air supremacy?

Worse, how can they not have information superiority?!  

[Battlefront.com]

15 minutes ago, billbindc said:

I think one partial answer to this question is that the capabilities of the Ukrainian army were clearly expanding in ways that Russia we now know, wasn't really equipped to handle.

This a big part of what I believe is nexus of compounding reasons why now and why this war.  Here are some other reasons in no particular order of importance:

1.  Putin is almost 70.  Reassembling the territorial and military power of the old Soviet Union isn't something he can do before he dies if he sits around and waits.

2.  In particular, Putin has a deep seated problem with watching Ukraine break away from Russian control.  From what some Putin watchers and insiders have said, this has gotten more of an issue for him with each passing year.

3.  His frozen conflict strategy in the Donbas wasn't working.  See note below.

4.  It is possible that something inside his shiny head changed in the last few years.  Not necessarily snapped, maybe just frayed.

5.  Russia is experiencing long term economic problems which are getting harder to cover up.  Unfortunately, he also has no interest in economic and political reforms that could address this so there's that.

6.  Similarly, there are long term threats to his unquestioned rule over Russia.  This is why for years now he's been systematically cracking down on personal freedoms and political opposition.

7.  Ethnic Russians are declining in absolute numbers as well as the proportion of the population.  All kinds of incentives to make babies has failed, as it has failed in other countries.  If you are a ethno nationalist, which Putin is, then taking over a large chunk of land with a bunch of similar people should help improve the numbers somewhat.

 

The note I referenced above is that Putin could have chose another type of conflict to advance his goals.  Problem is, those alternatives take time and point #1 means he doesn't have a lot left.

Steve

[riptides]

25 minutes ago, billbindc said:

I think one partial answer to this question is that the capabilities of the Ukrainian army were clearly expanding in ways that Russia we now know, wasn't really equipped to handle. There are something like 20 Bayraktar's available for use. They've been doing serious damage. Absent this war, there would have been 100+. Gerasimov saw what happened btw Armenia/Azerbaijan as clearly as everyone else did. The Ukrainian missile program was also on the cusp of expansion and increased capability. We've already seen what regular and irregular Ukrainian infantry can do. Certainly a big factor was that if they didn't go now, they were going to be clearly unable to in a couple of years.

Couple the opinion with the rationing and logistics of the Russian troops and you see a window that gets smaller as time passes. Also on the global financial front, maybe Putin thought the time right as economies are hindered with inflation and pandemic responses.

[Battlefront.com]

16 minutes ago, Vet 0369 said:

is it possible that Russia is experiencing a potential major disruption in it’s economy, outside of the obvious impact from the recent world sanctions?

Yes.  But to add to this, Putin runs a very effective kleptocratic police state and a decidedly sub-par economy.  Economic improvements in the early 2000s gave him the power he has now, therefore economic weakness could take it away from him.  Cracking down on dissent indicates that he might think domestic conditions are worse than the outside observers know.

For all we know there's some über secret internal report that their gas and oil reserves are not doing as well as people assume.  Or the central banks' years of cooking the books is getting to the meltdown stage.  Or something else.

Steve

[DesertFox]

Are we really sure those "soldiers" are already older than 18? Looks more like a childrens crusade.

 

 

[Vet 0369]

45 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

I edited my post above with a 2nd vid of the same explosion. You see the blast wave clearer there.

Substantial blast waves can and are produced by any large explosions. About 12-years ago, there was an industrial accident, and subsequent explosion in my town, in an Ink factory of all things. I live about five miles from the explosion, and was woken up by the pressure wave hitting the soles of my feet. I immediately knew what it was. After the sound wave woke my wife, she asked if it was an explosion.

[danfrodo]

my Gawd, they are children

[kraze]

3 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

 Ethnic Russians are declining in absolute numbers as well as the proportion of the population.  All kinds of incentives to make babies has failed, as it has failed in other countries.  If you are a ethno nationalist, which Putin is, then taking over a large chunk of land with a bunch of similar people should help improve the numbers somewhat.

What are those "ethnic russians" even are?

Certainly not slavs, as evidenced by how utterly alien both the culture and language of Russia is to Slavic nations. Case in point - look at the monument of Volodymyr Velyky in Russia - he's wearing a mongolian fur hat that was never the part of any Slavic culture and was never worn by Volodymyr himself. Even going through official russian history - it's a complete mess of lies and holes, especially XIII-XVII centuries seem to be just quickly breezed past.

So I don't really think "ethnical russians" were ever a thing to him.

[GAZ NZ]

A few hours ago a guy I talk to in Ukraine Heinrich said Russian troops destroyed a TV tower in Kyiv. He said they plan to leave them without communications and Internet 

He said 5 people died in the shelling and it feels like genocide 

That's his opinion 

He's not military just a non combatant civilian trying to get his family to safety 

[BeondTheGrave]

4 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

Are we really sure those "soldiers" are already older than 18? Looks more like a childrens crusade.

 

 

Ive seen a lot of 18yr olds these day, they all look (and act) like children. Tbh a lot of 18yr olds are still kids.

[Haiduk]

The vicininity of Chernihiv. Russian T-72,  BMP and command vehicle of AA battalion chief of staff (our soldier is reading his red copybook with a pointing of his duty). All vehicles abandoned after engagement. 87 - marking for Central military district

 

[Vet 0369]

46 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

My thoughts exactly.  And I also agree with the poster that I'd not be hanging around waiting for the autoloader to do its thing!

Steve

True this, but it might take me a little longer as I’d probably be slipping in my own poop!

[Commanderski]

I wonder if most of the Russian soldiers were under the impression that this would be just an occupation type of incursion and not a shooting war. 

[sburke]

12 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

Are we really sure those "soldiers" are already older than 18? Looks more like a childrens crusade.

 

 

the older I get, the younger they look.

[Seedorf81]

1 hour ago, dan/california said:

This is the absolute military fundamental at the moment, most of the Russian's stuff just doesn't seem to work. Their missiles don't work, their logistics don't work, and their morale and effectiveness rivals that of the Romanians on the Eastern Front in WW2, or the Italians in North Africa. Just epic institutional failure all the way up and down.

Few months ago a US submariner explained on his vlog why he and his shipmates did not fear the latest most modern Russian subs. Even if some of those subs were told to have equal, or even better, capabilities than the Seawolf class.

They had the "never been not true"-experience that every Russian sub the US Navy ever encountered would function perfect for the first six to 12 months, but after that it would be a 100% certainty that a mechanical or electrical problem would arise. Which made more noise than was planned for, and it gave away their position. (Pretty vital.) US (sub)mariners rely on it, this veteran said, and I have no reason to doubt him.

So the Russian manufacturing on their super-secret-top-notch materials was not good enough to last over a year! 

Edited March 1, 2022 by Seedorf81

[Blazing 88's]

3 hours ago, DesertFox said:

 

 

EDIT:
In March 2020, Russia introduced a new rocket for the TOS-1A with a range of 10 km, achieved in part by weight and size reductions of a new fuel air explosive mixture in the warhead, while also increasing its power. Minimum range is extended from 400 m to 1.6 km, so the shorter-range M0.1.01.04M rocket will be retained for close combat environments.^[4] In 2018, Russian NBC Protection Troops received 30 TOS-1A Solntsepyok (Sunburn) 220 mm multiple rocket launchers.^[5]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TOS-1

Wonder if those tubes are loaded with the Thermobaric missles? If so kind of hard to deny the use if they try.

Edited March 1, 2022 by Blazing 88's

[Haiduk]

8 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

Are we really sure those "soldiers" are already older than 18? Looks more like a childrens crusade.

They are non-slavic ethnicity, among such nations, especially who live not in the cities, but in outback villages, many people has such lean psyhique. Also you can add to this great poverty in such outbacks, when people can't feed themeselve properly (lack of fruits and green vegetables, cheap food etc) 

[DesertFox]

 

5 minutes ago, Commanderski said:

I wonder if most of the Russian soldiers were under the impression that this would be just an occupation type of incursion and not a shooting war. 

Dunno if this one is representative, but for me it sounds plausible.

 

 

[Haiduk]

12 minutes ago, GAZ NZ said:

A few hours ago a guy I talk to in Ukraine Heinrich said Russian troops destroyed a TV tower in Kyiv. He said they plan to leave them without communications and Internet 

 

The tower is standing. TV-broadcasting already partially restored. 

[LongLeftFlank]

9 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

The vicininity of Chernihiv. Russian T-72,  BMP and command vehicle of AA battalion chief of staff (our soldier is reading his red copybook with a pointing of his duty). All vehicles abandoned after engagement. 87 - marking for Central military district

 

Wow, so all those impressively Orwellian red arrows on the Wiki map are (mostly) 20+ strung out columns advancing on 'a front one vehicle wide' a la Goodwood or KG Peiper.

With the supply line, such as it is, having to use that very same crappy road.

So never mind tangling with the tanks, just keep picking off those fuel bowsers and the rest takes care of itself?

[sburke]

4 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

The tower is standing. TV-broadcasting already partially restored. 

with Elon Musk dropping a bunch of stuff off Ukraine should have some more redundant capability to at least stream info.