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How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?


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21 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

Are we really sure those "soldiers" are already older than 18? Looks more like a childrens crusade.

 

 

I am over reading this photo, but based on the body language, the guy with his hand one of the one kids shoulder almost looks like he is trying to comfort the him. The Russian conscripts are in such bad shape that Ukrainian soldiers feel bad for them?!

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28 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

 

Dunno if this one is representative, but for me it sounds plausible.

 

 

This does not ring true to me. Either entirely fake (and sloppily edited) or a real prisoner, but receiving instructions on what to say after first part of call (why else the cuts?).  Ukraine should not engage in this type of information war.  “Managed democracy” in Russia doesn’t work by getting people to only believe the state and not listen or see anything else, but to saturate with conflicting information so that nothing is really believed or trusted, but saturation of state messaging over truthful content can still direct attitudes to some degree.  If you believe nothing, you’ll believe anything.

Edited by akd
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7 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

The tower is standing. TV-broadcasting already partially restored. 

 He sent a video  on Instagram showing a comms building exploding but the tower seemed fine as it wasn't targeted 

Maybe they want that stuff left intact

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2 hours ago, OldSarge said:

You'd think that they would've wargamed this operation out before they even started to their form up positions.

They might've. But they set their own forces to "Elite, Fanatic, +2 leadership, Fit" and they used "Conscript, Poor, -2 Leadership, Unift Uncons" for the Ukrainian opposition.

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2 minutes ago, GAZ NZ said:

 

 He sent a video  on Instagram showing a comms building exploding but the tower seemed fine as it wasn't targeted 

Maybe they want that stuff left intact

I've posted the same video above - this is not comms building, but old abandoned sport center near the tower. I live in Kyiv too :)

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2 minutes ago, akd said:

This does not ring true to me. Either entirely fake (and sloppily edited) or a real prisoner, but receiving instructions on what to say after first part of call (why else the cuts?).  Ukraine should not engage in this type of information war.  “Managed democracy” in Russia doesn’t work by getting people to only believe the state and not listen or see anything else, but to saturate with conflicting information so that nothing is really believed or trusted, but saturation of state messages can still direct attitudes to some degree.

It could be fake, but it could also be true. It would go a long way to explain why columns of jeeps and trucks just drove casually into Ukraine and got destroyed in road march formation.

Also, I noticed that the guy just said "there's a war", seeming to avoid saying loud and clear what's going on. He might not want to get anyone in trouble back home. If it had been a propaganda fake, it would have been tempting for the Ukrainians to write the script a little stronger, such as "Putin lied to us, he sent us here to die"... etc.

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4 minutes ago, womble said:

They might've. But they set their own forces to "Elite, Fanatic, +2 leadership, Fit" and they used "Conscript, Poor, -2 Leadership, Unift Uncons" for the Ukrainian opposition.

... And forgot to give the ai order plots.

Edited by Blazing 88's
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11 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

So never mind tangling with the tanks, just keep picking off those fuel bowsers and the rest takes care of itself?

Yep exactly. Additionally due to thawing secondary/tertiary roads become a nightmare to drive on and cross country advance is out of the question for the aggressor.

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2 hours ago, DesertFox said:

 

 

That's some serious situational awareness from the tank! Spotting someone lurking in a many-windowed facade, and getting a round at least nearby... Would it be likely that the gunner hadn't acquired the camera operator, but was firing based on his commander's instructions? I'd've thought, at that range, that we wouldn't have seen that footage, if the gunner had known precisely where to chuck his HE.

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I've been wondering if something is physically wrong with some of the Russian munitions. They make a big explosion, but the damage seems more due to high temperature than the explosive effect.

For example, the TV tower was hit directly, but didn't collapse, and I couldn't even see any physical damage on the girder structure after the smoke had cleared.

Likewise, the missile that hit in front of the opera clearly caused destruction, but the footage shows a car that was very close to the impact drive slowly on, and then two people exit from it and appear to walk away unharmed or at least alive.

Please note that I'm not trying to downplay the seriousness of these attacks - I'm just wondering if the explosive filling of some of their missiles might not be detonating with all the force it was designed for. Maybe because it's getting old and degrading?

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3 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

I've been wondering if something is physically wrong with some of the Russian munitions. They make a big explosion, but the damage seems more due to high temperature than the explosive effect.

For example, the TV tower was hit directly, but didn't collapse, and I couldn't even see any physical damage on the girder structure after the smoke had cleared.

Likewise, the missile that hit in front of the opera clearly caused destruction, but the footage shows a car that was very close to the impact drive slowly on, and then two people exit from it and appear to walk away unharmed or at least alive.

Please note that I'm not trying to downplay the seriousness of these attacks - I'm just wondering if the explosive filling of some of their missiles might not be detonating with all the force it was designed for. Maybe because it's getting old and degrading?

Those were FAE warheads.  I won’t link, but there is video of an incinerated family that was walking through the park around the base of the tower.

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40 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

 

Dunno if this one is representative, but for me it sounds plausible.

 

 

Like most wargamers, I hate war because I know enough about it to form that opinion.  And this is Exhibit A.  For his sake, I'm glad he was able to call home instead of being scattered on a Ukrainian road.

Steve

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Just now, Battlefront.com said:

Like most wargamers, I hate war because I know enough about it to form that opinion.  And this is Exhibit A.  For his sake, I'm glad he was able to call home instead of being scattered on a Ukrainian road.

Steve

To be honest I feel really bad for him and his mom. Could you imagine getting that phone call? The best and the worst call you could ever get. I hope hes treated well and gets to go home soon. 

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1 minute ago, BeondTheGrave said:

To be honest I feel really bad for him and his mom. Could you imagine getting that phone call? The best and the worst call you could ever get. I hope hes treated well and gets to go home soon. 

It's better call than call from the administrative HQ.

I too hope he is treated well (seems like it) and can go home soon, because that will mean the war is over soon :)

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