How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Phantom Captain]

1 hour ago, George MC said:

Russian comms. includes recordings of Russians in action  

I mean, what??  How could they be this inept??  It's just mind blowing how this army has exposed it's weakness and incompetence on every single level.

 

Edited March 1, 2022 by Phantom Captain

[BeondTheGrave]

 

These are really bad signs re the future of Ukraine. In occupied cities and towns if the crowd is willing to mobilize like that, even without backing from say the UA, there is no doubt in my mind that this could easily slip to insurgent warfare. An the Ruskies are not doing themselves any favors. I know this had been discussed to death here, but to me this just seems like another step on the road to the 'Iraq' future. As I recall, the US intervention in Iraq was also in the first days pretty popular too? Were there major protests after Saddam fell? Starting at this point seems bad.

 

 

A random thought I had yesterday that I wanted to ask, how do molotovs and ERA mix? I know that the triggering mechanism for ERA isn't sensitive enough to fuse on a glass bottle, I was more thinking about the effects of covering explosive blocks in burning gasoline. Is there a risk of cookoff there?

Sometimes I hate how ****ing unspecific and wrong the media can be. I've never heard in my life of a vacuum bomb. Why can you just google a weapon if you dont know what it is and use the right terms? Anyway is the infamous TOS? From the footage here, its pretty hard to tell. Could be an ammo dump or a fuel tank or a big air dropped bomb (FOAB?) 

 

Partial mobilization of strategic reserves. Keep in mind though, the further you get from Moscow and the European border, the worse most Russian troops get. 

Did it rain this morning or is this old? I had heard there was snow in Kyiv.

Sooooooooo, @Battlefront.com When is the 100mm AT gun coming to CMBS? 

 

Soldiers with a V marking wave away a camerman, point rifles at them. One may fire a rather well aimed warning shot at the end. 

Also I just wanted you to know what kind of filth I saw trolling through the latest Ukraine tweets today. I say one NFT bro announcing his new (not monkey) project. No mention if the proceeds will go to Ukraine, even if they said it would I doubt that. I saw one butt pic, accompanying OF link, that said the woman stood for Ukraine. But she was sitting? And I saw perhaps the most antisemetic defense of the Russian invasion possible. Like, WOW. If you know who the Khazars were, you can paint your own image of **** from there. 

Edited March 1, 2022 by BeondTheGrave

[BeondTheGrave]

Ill put this in another post because its a rather unformed discursive though, but RE: the intel war lots of focus right now on the ELINT side, digital intel, that kind of thing. But With all these POWs and Russian teams surrendering to Ukrainian soldiers, also a tremendous HUMINT haul as well. A lot of people are probably willing to spill their guts to explain why their officers failed them, it could help really find out the weaknesses of the Russian logistics and C2 system. I wish I was hearing more about HUMINT sources, but naturally Im sure while those probably exist theyre not the kind of thing that gets released to the press or the Twitter Intelligence Agency. 

Also I just read that thread about the civilian radios. Does anyone know what kind of EW assets Ukraine may have had before the conflict? Are these Ukrainian jammers or do people think this might be a bit of sly NATO assistance? How much specialized gear do you need to white out a radio signal like that? To be honest I understand the use of EW, but the specifics and the technology are a mystery to me. 

Edited March 1, 2022 by BeondTheGrave

[Redwolf]

2 hours ago, Doc844 said:

Unverified reports of russia using thermobaric bombs, how will this change the political landscape seeing as how they are against the Geneva convention.

The convention is older than thermobaric weapons, how can they be outlawed by it? Also, wouldn't make sense, they are the same as using more HE.

[TheVulture]

5 minutes ago, Redwolf said:

The convention is older than thermobaric weapons, how can they be outlawed by it? Also, wouldn't make sense, they are the same as using more HE.

Also, among other uses, The UK, US (Afghanistan), and Russia (Chechnya) have all acknowledged using thermobaric weapons in the past. If it was a violation of the Geneva convention in some way I don't think they'd be openly saying that.

Using them against civilians is against the convention sure, but the same applies to any weapons.

[White2Golf]

33 minutes ago, Phantom Captain said:

I mean, what??  How could they be this inept??  It's just mind blowing how this army has exposed it's weakness and incompetence on every single level.

 

Could it be as simple as the conscripts do not know how to properly configure the radios for encrypted or frequency hopping traffic?  Either way, if this is reality on a large scale...   That's not good for them.  

[Splinty]

Just now, White2Golf said:

Could it be as simple as the conscripts do not know how to properly configure the radios for encrypted or frequency hopping traffic?  Either way, if this is reality on a large scale...   That's not good for them.  

That's a strong possibility, along with not having the current encryption keys to even do so.

[Baneman]

27 minutes ago, BeondTheGrave said:

...
Also I just read that thread about the civilian radios. Does anyone know what kind of EW assets Ukraine may have had before the conflict? Are these Ukrainian jammers or do people think this might be a bit of sly NATO assistance? How much specialized gear do you need to white out a radio signal like that? To be honest I understand the use of EW, but the specifics and the technology are a mystery to me. 

Jamming and/or bad radios might explain some of the more bizarre "abandonments" we've seen - You've been ambushed, you've lost a few vehicles, not sure where the enemy is and even if you did, you're not sure where you are, taking more fire and the comms hookup you cobbled together stops working so you have no contact higher up... - low motivation troops might well just leg it and leave everything behind.

[borg]

Just seeing more and more vids… the gross level of incompetence ? Negligence ? And systematic failure of the Russian army is baffling me . Long stretches of supply trucks destroyed behind lines .. did u see them ? 

[Bulletpoint]

36 minutes ago, BeondTheGrave said:

Sometimes I hate how ****ing unspecific and wrong the media can be. I've never heard in my life of a vacuum bomb. Why can you just google a weapon if you dont know what it is and use the right terms?

There are many kinds of media.

Nexta (pronounced "niekh-ta", Belarusian pronunciation: [nʲexta]) is a Belarusian media outlet that is primarily distributed through Telegram and YouTube channels. It became the biggest Telegram channel in Belarus as the primary source of news covering events that followed Belarusian rallies in 2020–2021. The Telegram channel mostly features short videos and images submitted by users taken during the rallies, while longer original videos are shared on YouTube. The YouTube channel was founded by then 17-year old student Stsiapan Putsila.

(Wiki)

[BornGinger]

I wonder how much one of these molotov cocktail bottles from the Pravda Brewery in Lviv will go for on Ebay after this war is over? As most of them are being thrown on Russian armoured vehicles there will probably not be many left when this is all over.

Maybe those of you who live fairly close to Lviv should take a trip just to get some of those bottles and keep them somewhere safe for a few years before putting them up for sale?

Read about them here.

Edited March 1, 2022 by BornGinger

[Haiduk]

There is light storm near Odesa, Russians can't approach for landing in Odesa area. 

Russian jets bombed Kharkiv, the bomb hit residential building, 8 KIA. Reportedly this plane was shot down and fell in the "Losk" market area.

Yesterday Russian aviation used heavy thermobaric bombs at Oktyrka town, Sumy oblast. The faciliteis of 91st operative support regiment (engineer unit) almost comletely destroyed also fuel storage hit. 70 militaries were killed.

 

 

Edited March 1, 2022 by Haiduk

[melm]

50 minutes ago, BeondTheGrave said:

Sometimes I hate how ****ing unspecific and wrong the media can be. I've never heard in my life of a vacuum bomb. Why can you just google a weapon if you dont know what it is and use the right terms? Anyway is the infamous TOS? From the footage here, its pretty hard to tell. Could be an ammo dump or a fuel tank or a big air dropped bomb (FOAB?) 

It IS the right terms. If you wiki the term, “Thermobaric weapon" entry lists three names including "vacuum bomb".

[DesertFox]

23 minutes ago, Redwolf said:

The convention is older than thermobaric weapons, how can they be outlawed by it? Also, wouldn't make sense, they are the same as using more HE.

Their use is only outlawed if used against civilians or against and near civilian installations. 

Protokoll III über Brandwaffen[Bearbeiten | Quelltext bearbeiten]

Das Protokoll konkretisiert Regeln, welche auf den Genfer Konventionen zum Schutze von Zivilisten basieren, für die Benutzung von Brandwaffen.

• Verabschiedet am 10. Oktober 1980 in Genf; In Kraft seit: 2. Dezember 1983

SR 0.515.091 - Übereinkommen vom 10. Oktober 1980 über das Verbot oder die Beschränkung des Einsatzes bestimmter konventioneller Waffen, die übermässige Leiden verursachen oder unterschiedslos wirken können (mit Prot. I-IV) (admin.ch)

Weapons that may Cause Unnecessary Suffering or have Indiscriminate Effects, Report on the Work of Experts (loc.gov)

Thermobaric weapon - Wikipedia

[Aragorn2002]

1 hour ago, Phantom Captain said:

I mean, what??  How could they be this inept??  It's just mind blowing how this army has exposed it's weakness and incompetence on every single level.

 

Finland 1939.

[DesertFox]

 

 

[Sarjen]

I still cant get my mind straight to get a reason why Putin began the war now.

Nordstream2 was built and ready to transfer in short notice natural gas to Germany and the EU. Europe ignored for too long the consequences a possible cessation of all Russian natural gas transit through Ukraine to the EU would cause. Both in social as well as technical terms it would have heavily affected Ukraine. The upkeep for the pipeline in Ukraine is high and could have become financially unviable to operate once Russia would have ceased all gas transit. The pipeline is vital to Ukraine's chemical and heavy industry. And for Russia the geo-economic leverage the Ukraine had over them through its control of a share of Russian gas exports would have been gone. A subversion of the economic and social life of the  brother nation may, in fact, be a main function of the entire logistically and economically, in fact, unnecessary Nordstream2 project.

So why by all means did Putin rush to the war? And with a bad start too? Why did he not wait a bit longer for the economic downfall of Ukraine. Why didn't he use the normal way of subterfuge and propaganda to get a more cheap victory?

[akd]

2 minutes ago, Sarjen said:

I still cant get my mind straight to get a reason why Putin began the war now.

Nordstream2 was built and ready to transfer in short notice natural gas to Germany and the EU. Europe ignored for too long the consequences a possible cessation of all Russian natural gas transit through Ukraine to the EU would cause. Both in social as well as technical terms it would have heavily affected Ukraine. The upkeep for the pipeline in Ukraine is high and could have become financially unviable to operate once Russia would have ceased all gas transit. The pipeline is vital to Ukraine's chemical and heavy industry. And for Russia the geo-economic leverage the Ukraine had over them through its control of a share of Russian gas exports would have been gone. A subversion of the economic and social life of the  brother nation may, in fact, be a main function of the entire logistically and economically, in fact, unnecessary Nordstream2 project.

So why by all means did Putin rush to the war? And with a bad start too? Why did he not wait a bit longer for the economic downfall of Ukraine. Why didn't he use the normal way of subterfuge and propaganda to get a more cheap victory?

Because democracy in Ukraine was working.

[Sarjen]

6 minutes ago, akd said:

Because democracy in Ukraine was working.

Democracy is working as long as every one can participate and the population is fed and get money. If a part of this is missing democracy is susceptible for populists and propaganda. And Russia is good at this.

Edited March 1, 2022 by Sarjen

[DesertFox]

Pretty good map here:

 

https://twitter.com/geoallison/status/1498664980031455235?s=20&t=BdNgOJG3ENQbJy6I-U924w

[Aragorn2002]

7 minutes ago, Sarjen said:

I still cant get my mind straight to get a reason why Putin began the war now.

Nordstream2 was built and ready to transfer in short notice natural gas to Germany and the EU. Europe ignored for too long the consequences a possible cessation of all Russian natural gas transit through Ukraine to the EU would cause. Both in social as well as technical terms it would have heavily affected Ukraine. The upkeep for the pipeline in Ukraine is high and could have become financially unviable to operate once Russia would have ceased all gas transit. The pipeline is vital to Ukraine's chemical and heavy industry. And for Russia the geo-economic leverage the Ukraine had over them through its control of a share of Russian gas exports would have been gone. A subversion of the economic and social life of the  brother nation may, in fact, be a main function of the entire logistically and economically, in fact, unnecessary Nordstream2 project.

So why by all means did Putin rush to the war? And with a bad start too? Why did he not wait a bit longer for the economic downfall of Ukraine. Why didn't he use the normal way of subterfuge and propaganda to get a more cheap victory?

Good question. Another question. Why didn´t Putin attack while Trump was in office?

[BFCElvis]

10 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Great to see you again, or somefink   You know we hired one of your kind.  More inexplicably, we hired one who is real life friends with Peng.  Crazy stuff, right?

Oh he knows. We stay in touch through the Twitters. I suggested to him yesterday that he might find this thread interesting. Bill also has some Washington connections that I (selfishly) thought might add to the party.

Also, he has met and drank with Peng some years ago in DC.

[Sarjen]

Just now, Aragorn2002 said:

Good question. Another question. Why didn´t Putin attack while Trump was in office?

Well. Nordstream2 wasn't finished?

[Bulletpoint]

BBC:

In the north-eastern city of Okhtyrka, up to 70 Ukrainian soldiers have reportedly been killed in a Russian artillery strike

[DesertFox]

2 hours ago, akd said:

The side skirt ERA bags do not have their explosive plate inserts, only the plastic spacers!  Also, turret rear side ERA pulled out and exposed on top of turret.  I believe this is 2S24 Kaktus?

Here is some more detail of exactly that tank: