How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[arkhangelsk2021]

4 hours ago, womble said:

Which brings me to something else I've thought about earlier: how are the Russians losing the propaganda/information war so badly? I would've expected far more visibility of Russian footage of destroyed/captured UKR equipment and personnel. Or maybe it's just they don't have any such pictures because it really is going terribly badly for them.

Actually, if you ask me, it looks like they aren't even doing propaganda for this one. One thing about propaganda, and this is something I suggest to Wumao, is that you should know when at some point there is nothing you can say to improve the situation. I mean, let's say they put up pictures of destroyed UKR equipment. How would the average Westerner react? With even more sympathy for Ukraine?

So let's not go there.

[Vanir Ausf B]

11 minutes ago, BeondTheGrave said:

That is the Russians were taught this was how they should fight, and are now paying the price for that mistake. 

I suspect it's more the other way around. The way they are fighting this war is much different than how they train to fight. Broadly speaking, Russian military doctrine assumes they will be fighting a superior opponent (NATO). In this instance, they went in planning to fight a vastly inferior opponent. That assumption was wrong so the plan failed.

[danfrodo]

I just read that Putin fired his military chief of staff, name Gerasimov.  Anyone else heard this?

[Battlefront.com]

This will probably get lost in the tsunami posting frenzy we are all in, but here goes anyway...

Currently, Ukraine is doing better than I expected it would be at this point largely because Russia is doing so much worse than I ever thought possible.  I do not think Ukraine can hold out against Russian forces if Russia decides it is going to pull out all the stops (which is what I assumed they would do when this started).  Russia can win by brute force Grozny style.

The only thought I had of eastern Ukraine avoiding occupation was for things to go badly enough that there's a coup or popular uprising back in Russia.  That, in turn, relies mostly on Ukraine inflicting an unacceptably high amount of damage or Putin going totally off the rails or both.  Russian Army mutinies would be very helpful as well.

Although Ukraine has held out longer and vastly better than even I expected (which was vastly more than most gave them credit for), Russia has the numbers.  If they apply them, Ukraine will lose at a minimum the east and maybe even Kiev. After that, though, Russia's going to have its hands full. 

Ukraine will eventually throw the Russians out, sooner if there is a coup or uprising in Russia.  It's just a matter of when.

I am still hopeful that Ukraine can fight off the Russians for this week, but if something dramatic doesn't change on the Russian side of things I don't think they will.

Steve

[BletchleyGeek]

Just now, danfrodo said:

I just read that Putin fired his military chief of staff, name Gerasimov.  Anyone else heard this?

I think that's fake - there was a video of a meeting of Putin with the War Minister and the Chieff of Staff within the same timeline as the alleged dismissal.

[Battlefront.com]

1 minute ago, danfrodo said:

I just read that Putin fired his military chief of staff, name Gerasimov.  Anyone else heard this?

This has been a rumor going around for a couple of days now.  He is still on the job as far as I know.  Unless something happened today, it's false information.

Steve

[akd]

28 minutes ago, BeondTheGrave said:

Its not unbelievable to think that NATO has broken into Russian communications and fiddled with their C2 network. I could think of no better way of grinding an offensive to a halt than sending out erroneous reports or shuffling logistics trains this way and that to no effect. We know that the US has been very concerned about China doing exactly this to us. Anyone notice how few Russian drones there have been in the conflict? Maybe the US sabotaged the network there on the first day(unconfirmed speculation, dont @ me) 

But ultimately I think too that the problem is systemic. It is as much at the point of the spear as at the shaft. Its not just that the supply chain broke down, or that intel didn't do its job, or that the men at the front have been employed poorly. Its everything all at once. That says, to me, that the problem is with the whole of the Russian national security establishment and in ways that a few 007s or a well placed malware attack could create.

I suspect though that NATO EW/Cyber activities arn't doing the Russians any favors. 

No, this would be a escalation that we’ve specifically warned Russia against. Electronic warfare is warfare. Intel, however, is sharable.

[Bulletpoint]

4 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I am still hopeful that Ukraine can fight off the Russians for this week, but if something dramatic doesn't change on the Russian side of things I don't think they will.

This post was surprising to me. Just the other day, you said the outcome of this war would be decided by today... and that unless Russia made major gains fast, their offensive would stall.

Now it seems you think the opposite, or am I reading you wrong?

Edited February 28, 2022 by Bulletpoint

[GAZ NZ]

58 minutes ago, Baneman said:

Given the amount of dis/mis-information floating around in this day and age, compared with when the GC was drafted, this actually prevents any wild claims of POW's being mistreated and/or "disappeared".

Yeah twitter has blatant murder killing of wounded or unarmed Russian soldiers, showing bodies lined up by vehicles with clean shots to the head all war crimes and no a peep

Ive seen no Russian footage 

Weird times we are in 

Edited February 28, 2022 by GAZ NZ

[BeondTheGrave]

11 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

I can hardly believe they would be that incompetent. A country that has so much pride about its WW2 achievements.. and with several recent modern wars and conflicts behind it... surely any Russian military leader must have studied history and tactics.

The devils in the details isn't it. Russia is using a time honored operational plan, one first developed by Tukhachevsky and perfected during the crisis years of the Second World War. But of course youll note the lack of T-34s or PzIVs in posts. Its in modernizing that doctrine for the 21st century where the failure point was injected. Take one example: this battalion combat group. In concept it makes a lot of sense, the west has been experimenting with it since the 1970s and its the cornerstone of the modern US Army. But it places a high demand on mid level staff officers who have to process all this information from all these combat groups at once. The US sidesteps this issue in one part thanks to great C2 tech that makes information management easy, and in the other part by delegating much of the authority to commanders at the low end of the pay grade. But what happens if you need to get Col. Jerkoff's signature to send out every supply convoy? Even if you understand the system, multiplying the requests multiplies the burden. Making even a simple change can radically shift how an army actually fights.

Then add in poor quality potentially corrupt leadership. I cant comment on that, I havn't seen sources. But if Col. Jerkoff is a political officer who got his position because his daddy is Minister Jerkoff, how that that impact resupply efforts? And then if a US Cyber attack knocks out your C2 and you have to go all paper? It could go a long way to explaining what were seeing, and its what I mean when I say a systemic failure. No one variable can explain such a huge breakdown, except at the fundamental level serious errors made by incompetent or ignorant leadership. Yet on the operational level it looks like the same old mission the Army has always had, an idea that can trace it lineage back almost 100 years. 

[Kraft]

2 minutes ago, GAZ NZ said:

Yeah twitter has blatant murder killing of wounded or unarmed Russian soldiers, showing bodies lined up by vehicles with clean shots to the head all war crimes and no a peep

Ive seen no Russian footage 

Weird times we are in 

I have spent way too much time on twitter the last days following both pro rus and pro ukr and have not seen a single video that suggests executed POWs of any side.

Please link some sources to that claim

Edited February 28, 2022 by Kraft

[John Kettler]

8 hours ago, BeondTheGrave said:

Also Chchens seem like they've withdrawn from the conflict unilaterally after suffering heavy casualties. 

Was under the impression this was the V-marked special force the UA had to stop at all costs--which it did decisively, but SOFAIK, this is not Kadyrov's force, at least part of which was Z-marked.

https://www.tellerreport.com/news/2022-02-27-ukraine-announces-the-destruction-of-a-unit-of-kadyrov-s-forces.rJ7XDQC_xq.html

Regards,

John Kettler

 

[Battlefront.com]

11 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

This post was surprising to me. Just the other day, you said the outcome of this war would be decided by today... and that unless Russia made major gains fast, their offensive would stall.

Now it seems you think the opposite, or am I reading you wrong?

Kinda.  I said I thought today would be decisive.  I think I was right about that.  From what I can tell, and what some analysts have speculated on, is that starting tomorrow Russia will adopt a new strategy to replace the initial failed one.  The new one seems to be putting the remaining reserves into play and that includes the big boom-sticks they have so far not been using because a) they didn't expect enough resistance and b) it is going to kill a lot of civilians and wreck infrastructure in the process. 

Since they are planning on Ukraine being a vassal state, I'm sure they were trying to minimize how much money they'd have to put into rebuilding.  But given the choice between losing a ground war to a bunch of Nazis or leveling the country to make it safe for Russians to raise their children... leveling is the way they will go.  Russia has a history of mass atrocities when they don't get their way.

Steve

[Vanir Ausf B]

2 minutes ago, BeondTheGrave said:

 Take one example: this battalion combat group.

From what I have seen and heard, Russian units are rarely fighting as a coherent BTG. Rather, they are breaking down into (mostly) platoon-sized elements that operate semi-independently. This has worked poorly to say the least.

[Codreanu]

7 minutes ago, GAZ NZ said:

Yeah twitter has blatant murder killing of wounded or unarmed Russian soldiers, showing bodies lined up by vehicles with clean shots to the head all war crimes and no a peep

 

4 minutes ago, Kraft said:

I have spent way too much time on twitter the last days following both pro rus and pro ukr and have not seen a single video that suggests executed POWs of any side.

Please link some sources to that claim

Seconding this, could you post a link, or at least point us in the right direction? I haven't seen any videos of war crimes like that.

[Battlefront.com]

6 minutes ago, Kraft said:

I have spent way too much time on twitter the last days following both pro rus and pro ukr and have not seen a single video that suggests executed POWs of any side.

Please link some sources to that claim

I've certainly not seen any of that either.  Plenty of videos of dead Russian and Ukrainian soldiers, but always in or next to a wrecked vehicle.

Steve

[BeondTheGrave]

9 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Although Ukraine has held out longer and vastly better than even I expected (which was vastly more than most gave them credit for), Russia has the numbers.  If they apply them, Ukraine will lose at a minimum the east and maybe even Kiev. After that, though, Russia's going to have its hands full. 

Short medium and long term outcomes right? Ukraine's best bet is for a quick victory. But I dont think they can win a quick military victory. So theyre hope is a political victory. As much as both sides will snipe at each other, or Ukrainians will fairly ask Europe and the US why they dont support more directly, both sides are doing exactly what they need to do to win a political and diplomatic victory. The sanctions regime has made the Man of Steel's regime (hopefully you all appreciate the reference) totter and wobble. Ukraine has precluded Moscows ability to win a quick victory as well. In the medium term, Russian mass will tell. They can fight through Ukraine like it was World War One, shelling each position on a map until theyre ready to send in the infantry. Trade 100 guys for 100 guys and take the town/house/block/street, then move on to the next one. Russia can mobilize more men and will eventually win that kind of conflict. Question is will the Russian people, the Oligarchs, and their allies go along with that or will they scream and force the state by some means to reverse course? Basically Ukraine needs to hope Russia loses its stomach and goes home. In the long term, if the political victory isn't won, probably Ukraine would win the insurgency. But it would be a blody humanitarian disaster. 

To me the only X factor is foreign resupply. If the west is willing to send fighters, if theyre willing to send volunteers to fly them, (have we got confirmation there?) if theyre willing to train up new Ukrainian cadres does Russia even have a numerical advantage? If Poland is willing to supply MiG-29s then what is off the table? Will German send Leos? Does the US have Iraqi Abrams lying around? And if volunteers come to staff them? Along these lines I see the potential for the conflict to completely flip its dynamic, and a lot of danger and hope exists in the flip. 

[BeondTheGrave]

Also more economic news

 

[GAZ NZ]

I watched a Ukraine soldier or civilian. ( unclear who) kill an unarmed Russian soldier lying behind a truck

I found it quite disturbing as the unarmed Russian had been on the back of the truck he jumped off under fire cowering by the truck as the Ukrainian advance shooting at him from the side

Was filmed from a building above looking down

Very clear

I'm not trawling through the footage to find it, finding the # it was under but I've seen it was very clearly 2 days sgo

Another video  a car passes by a Russian convoy destroyed 

Bodies clothes are clean except shot to each head lined up. 2 Bodies behind each vehicle 

There were other vehicles with bodies around vehicles in distance 

Had to pause video to see 

It happens in war but its unfortunately all over social media 

Ive seen too much nasty stuff on there so just listening to reports and staying off all that 

Edited February 28, 2022 by GAZ NZ

[akd]

22 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Oh, they would do sooooo much worse.  The general professional opinion about Belarus' fighting abilities are quite low.  And with all the turmoil in the country over the past year, I doubt their morale is very good.

Lukashenko will probably try to slow-walk or half-ass this, maybe move some regular forces toward the border to tie down Ukrainians without actually engaging and then send in some small contingents of “palace guard” SF to actually fight.  Even this I would say has about a 50-50 chance of bringing down his government with mass uprisings, so he might try to even keep partially secret.  If he commits the regular army, I think that rises to 80%+.  No Belarusians want to be at war with Ukraine or die for that cause, and anyone truly willing to fight would be doing it out of personal loyalty to Lukashenko, knowing that if he doesn’t do what Putin wants he is also done (and them along with him).  I would fully expect some regular army units to just refuse if ordered, at a minimum.  There is literally zero issue between Belarus and Ukraine at a population level.

[DesertFox]

9 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I've certainly not seen any of that either.  Plenty of videos of dead Russian and Ukrainian soldiers, but always in or next to a wrecked vehicle.

Steve

I´ve only seen pictures of russian war crimes so far. Example:

 

 

Edited February 28, 2022 by DesertFox

[BeondTheGrave]

9 minutes ago, Codreanu said:

 

Seconding this, could you post a link, or at least point us in the right direction? I haven't seen any videos of war crimes like that.

Can I make a request that we not post execution videos? Maybe a new thread for it? Combat footage thread? Does the forum do spoiler tags? I'd like to avoid having that on my soul. 

Edited February 28, 2022 by BeondTheGrave

[sburke]

4 hours ago, Aragorn2002 said:

Prepare for the worst. Threats, cyber attacks, sabotage, murder, fake news etc. The usual, so to speak.

yeah I think he meant new stuff.  

[John Kettler]

8 hours ago, BeondTheGrave said:

Anti.... Helicopter..... mine.... Just....

BFG please?

Some of what I have read is that the Russian elite divisions were placed in the Belgorod area, 2nd Guards MRD was (uncomfortably) encamped in that area just days before the invasion began. Source. Recent tweets and evidence have suggested that the primary axes are now Belarus -> Kiev and Belgorod -> Kharkov. I have seen further suggestion (will try to find tweets) that reserves have been activated in the Belgorod axis in preparation for todays botched attack on Kharkov. @DesertFox's tweet further suggests that reserve forces are now being committed. 

My Thesis: Putin has committed the old guard, it has failed to change the situation. 

Edit: update on the Belgorod thesis

 

BeyondTheGrave,

Here are the tech specs for the MON-90. Given its range (90 meters) and the presented area of the helicopter (huge relative to a a standing soldier, even with helo head-on), that helicopter, inside a gigantic shotgun blast of 2000 cylindrical steel rod segments, will be a sieve and most likely immobilized at best. The MON-90 is a great way to deny LZs (including building rooftops) to helos and paratroopers alike. They can also be positioned in treetops and other elevated positions to ruin the day of NOE fixed wing and rotary wing aircraft. It is a spectacular ambush weapon vs soft-skin MT, the bulk of any mechanized army.

Regards,

John Kettler

[akd]

8 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

I´ve only seen pictures of russian war crimes so far. Example:

 

The latter is an accident between civilian car and panicked Ukrainian army driver.  I’m not clicking on the former, but this sort of stuff is often manipulated or misconstrued, and sharing it if you are not 100% certain of its provenance and veracity is adjacent to encouraging war crimes as it is how violence escalation cycles start.

Edited February 28, 2022 by akd