How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Haiduk]

12 hours ago, Andy_101 said:

@Haiduk Not heard from you for a few hours on this thread.  Are you safe?  Are you okay?

I'm ok. I just too tired about all these news monitoring, so I havn't enough energy to write here. Today I tried to depart my wife from the city to her parents in more calm Cherkasy oblast, but we can't reach to railway station. Municipal transport stopped on the left bank of Kyiv, though on the right it works like and subway. 

All day from my balcony, wich exits to Obolon' and Vyshhorod periodically heard a sounds of shellings. Now I heard outcoming shots of our 2S7 Pion guns, located in 5 km from my house close to city limit. They fire somewhere to the west, where Russian troops concentrates to attack on the city. All day there were periodycal clashes on the line Irpin'-Bucha-Vorzel-Hostomel. There was attempt of Russian tank attack from Chernobyl zone through Ivankiv on Kyiv, but because of we had a time to demolish the bridges through the Teterev river, they halted. 

[CHEqTRO]

6 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

I'm ok. I just too tired about all these news monitoring, so I havn't enough energy to write here. Today I tried to depart my wife from the city to her parents in more calm Cherkasy oblast, but we can't reach to railway station. Municipal transport stopped on the left bank of Kyiv, though on the right it works like and subway. 

All day from my balcony, wich exits to Obolon' and Vyshhorod periodically heard a sounds of shellings. Now I heard outcoming shots of our 2S7 Pion guns, located in 5 km from my house close to city limit. They fire somewhere to the west, where Russian troops concentrates to attack on the city. All day there were periodycal clashes on the line Irpin'-Bucha-Vorzel-Hostomel. There was attempt of Russian tank attack from Chernobyl zone through Ivankiv on Kyiv, but because of we had a time to demolish the bridges through the Teterev river, they halted. 

Nice to hear from you! Was starting to get a bit worried honestly. Hopefully you can get your family to safety, or at the very least, find some good shelter. Tomorrow it seems that area is going to get heated. I wish you the best.

[Holien]

@Haiduk so glad you have posted, stay safe and keep your head down.. 

[DesertFox]

1 hour ago, CHEqTRO said:

Conventional warfare, atleast until they cross the Vistula, and threathen to cross the Oder. After that, maybe there is tactical nuclear use. 

If they cross the vistula it is game over and Chernobyl will be kindergarden compared to what is to come.

[womble]

27 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

I'm ok.

Good.

[CHEqTRO]

5 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

If they cross the vistula it is game over and Chernobyl will be kindergarden compared to what is to come.

Not really, no. Like I said, the NATO high officials might feel compelled to approve tactical usage of nukes in such an eventuality, but mostly if they believe that there is a threat to Germany.

Such a war will really be won or lost by Russia if they are able to break NATO in continental Europe. And the way to do so is by getting the germans to sue for peace by themselves and get them out of the alliance. They can do so without entering into german territory, just by threaten to actually do so, threat their industrial base with ballistic missiles, and offering them a return to normal trade relations. Wether the german state would accept or not, is doubtful. In case of the Germans sticking with NATO, the war will most likely end up in a phase similar to the one in Korea, with a very extensive DMZ.

The loss of NATO in eastern Europe would not mean the collapse of neither France, England or the USA, so doubtfully they will approve a strategic nuclear exchange that would actualy entail the end of their countries in such an occurrance.

[BletchleyGeek]

I found this map useful. Reading lots of rumours about Russian forces in the NE running low on supply and are foraging fuel and food.

Difficult to make a guess, but it seems to me the Russian Armed Forces plan was counting on the UKR army to fall apart very quickly. Especially the NE seems to be they are much slower than planned. Looks like a double envelopment on Kiev became a single armed thrust.

There are also reports that the 76th Airborne Division was earmarked to fly into Hostomel but landed instead in Gomel (right at the intersection of the borders between RUS, UKR and BEL).

The UKR govt is doing the right thing by having a third party - Israel, country well known for its long held sympathy for all things Nazi - to broker a cease fire. But the rhethoric from the RUS govt doesn't make very optimistic tbh. Also, threatening Finland and Sweden... well, I guess we can all make our own minds about it.

[akd]

9 minutes ago, BletchleyGeek said:

There are also reports that the 76th Airborne Division was earmarked to fly into Hostomel but landed instead in Gomel (right at the intersection of the borders between RUS, UKR and BEL).

VDV armor has definitely been in play at Bucha:

 

[Probus]

This is another view of the fighting. The car that got ran over had accidentally entered an ambush zone. I’ve read that the driver miraculously survived.
The truck that got ambushed didn’t fair as well.  Chaos of a war zone.

It is fairly intense so please don’t watch if these kinds of battle scenes upset you. 

[akd]

Ukrainian forces claim to have downed an Il-76 at Vasilkova:

 

Edited February 25, 2022 by akd

[BeondTheGrave]

20 minutes ago, BletchleyGeek said:

Reading lots of rumours about Russian forces in the NE running low on supply and are foraging fuel and food.

If we follow the Soviet doctrine model, as I recall failing attacks were supposed to get starved to support the more successful axis. I would wonder if Kiev has been deemed the successful axis and is now getting the bulk of resupply and reserves, while Kharkov is starved and forces there have moved into a holding pattern. 

Also a thought: You know I have seen BTRs, T-72s, rumors of destroyed Russian T-80s, Rumors of shot down Su-27s, A few BRMs and BMP 1s and 2s. But none of the high end kit. Now nothing obviously wrong with a modernized T-72, after all its basically the same thing as a T-90 right? But I havn't seen any T-90s, BMP-3s, or any of the new stuff lost or living. Not even a lost T-14! Has anyone else? If not suggests that Putin hasn't committed the "Old Guard" to the war yet, that this is basically an Iraq '91 scenario. Better to sacrifice the masses and the chaff then risk weakening his military power base. Pretty cynical calculation if true, I mean in the west you would expect the cream to go in first to crack open the situation and win the battle with the first battle. Also pretty bad for the overall operational picture. Regardless what this first echelon does or doesn't do in Kiev tonight, the big hammer has yet to drop and reverse the situation. 

[womble]

Regarding the collision and overrun of civilian autos by armour. I've seen two clips now, and in both cases, the car was driving pretty fast towards the advancing armour. It occurred to me that it might be standard "force protection" procedure to prevent "speeding vehicles" getting past the front of the armour column: better that a VBIED detonate against an armoured target than something soft and vital. I claim no expertise, but is that the sort of doctrine you might expect?

[BletchleyGeek]

9 minutes ago, akd said:

Ukrainian forces claim to have downed an Il-76 at Vasilkova:

 

Just read that, looks like they are trying a night time air drop? 

[BletchleyGeek]

6 minutes ago, BeondTheGrave said:

But I havn't seen any T-90s, BMP-3s, or any of the new stuff lost or living. Not even a lost T-14

Or their numbers, availability, technology readiness level etc. have been greatly exaggerated.

[Vet 0369]

1 hour ago, Bulletpoint said:

He wants Ukraine because he thinks it's historically part of Russia

Historically, he is partially right, except he has it backwards. Moscow was part of the Kiev Rus principality. In fact, that is where Russia gets it’s name. Kiev was settled by a Swedish tribe know as the Rus. That was well over 1,000 years ago. He needs to be careful as China can probably that Russia is historically part of China since it was occupied for hundreds of years by the Mongols and Tartars.

[Vanir Ausf B]

 

[BeondTheGrave]

1 minute ago, Vanir Ausf B said:

 

Again, I believe this may be the first battle fought in a radiological environment. The fighting apparently even caused a rather significant increase in local radiation levels, likely as a result of dust and dirt being thrown up into the air. Wouldn't want to be any of the guys who were fighting there. 

[BletchleyGeek]

40 minutes ago, BletchleyGeek said:

51 minutes ago, akd said:

Ukrainian forces claim to have downed an Il-76 at Vasilkova:

 

Expand  

Just read that, looks like they are trying a night time air drop? 

That seems to be what's going on SW of Kiev.

[db_zero]

Ukraine has asked for more Javelins and Stinger and as mentioned a re-supply convoy passed through Poland into Ukraine.

I also saw report that aside from US conventional forces being used in Ukraine to train Ukrainians, the special forces and CIA was also present training Ukrainians. My guess is the SF and CIA was training select individuals in unconventional and guerrilla techniques. 

I also saw a fairly recent youtube video report that on the informal militia like groups present in the Ukraine that were not officially sanctioned by the Ukrainian government at the time. Quite honesty they looked like some of the militia groups you see in the US and what I also found interesting was they were packing what looked like AR15s with modern rail systems and optics.

With Javelins and Stringers these militia groups and other guerrilla fighters could really make a real headache for the Russians.

I just hope that some sort of settlement can be reached, but I doubt anything satisfactory to both sides can be agreed upon. Wars are easy to start but difficult to end.

[Armorgunner]

1 hour ago, BeondTheGrave said:

If we follow the Soviet doctrine model, as I recall failing attacks were supposed to get starved to support the more successful axis. I would wonder if Kiev has been deemed the successful axis and is now getting the bulk of resupply and reserves, while Kharkov is starved and forces there have moved into a holding pattern. 

Also a thought: You know I have seen BTRs, T-72s, rumors of destroyed Russian T-80s, Rumors of shot down Su-27s, A few BRMs and BMP 1s and 2s. But none of the high end kit. Now nothing obviously wrong with a modernized T-72, after all its basically the same thing as a T-90 right? But I havn't seen any T-90s, BMP-3s, or any of the new stuff lost or living. Not even a lost T-14! Has anyone else? If not suggests that Putin hasn't committed the "Old Guard" to the war yet, that this is basically an Iraq '91 scenario. Better to sacrifice the masses and the chaff then risk weakening his military power base. Pretty cynical calculation if true, I mean in the west you would expect the cream to go in first to crack open the situation and win the battle with the first battle. Also pretty bad for the overall operational picture. Regardless what this first echelon does or doesn't do in Kiev tonight, the big hammer has yet to drop and reverse the situation. 

One of the first pics I saw yesterday. Was of a T-80BVM Where the turret was blown away like 40 meters from the tank.

[danfrodo]

On a little side note about perceptions:  I have heard from so many folks my generation or older how soft and weak young people are today, they're pansies who can't stop staring at phones, blah blah blah.  Yet thousands of those pansies are lining up to recieve AK47s and will probably die in the hundreds over the next few days.  Every generation has the ability to be tough and brave, it just doesn't show until they are tested.  Like all those kids who signed up for the military after 9-11.  I salute all them all. 

Now if one person could just somehow find a way to put a bullet through Putin's face.  What a monster.  Threatening nukes, threatening Sweden & Finland, threatening everyone.  He is completely insane and out of control.  I hope the russian people rise up and their brave soldiers refuse to fire on the crowds.  Those soldiers are the only thing between Putin being in charge and Putin strung up on a lamppost. 

I guess I'm just upset seeing what is happening to the good people of Ukraine, minding their own business, living in an independent country w a lot of freedom & culture & history.

[arkhangelsk2021]

2 hours ago, BeondTheGrave said:

If we follow the Soviet doctrine model, as I recall failing attacks were supposed to get starved to support the more successful axis. I would wonder if Kiev has been deemed the successful axis and is now getting the bulk of resupply and reserves, while Kharkov is starved and forces there have moved into a holding pattern. 

It's too early in the game to reallocate. My guess would be that Kiev was the priority all along, and Kharkov is there to force Ukraine to commit forces to its defense (since Ukraine can't exactly lose Kharkov, either).

[melm]

4 hours ago, Bulletpoint said:

Putin doesn't want world war 3. If he wanted that, he could just have pushed the button, or at least attacked the Baltics or Poland. He wants Ukraine because he thinks it's historically part of Russia, because he wants to leave a legacy, and because he's an intelligent sociopath who realises that Ukraine is an unguarded chess piece since they are not in NATO. I think that's all. Not digging a bunker just yet.

Fully agree.

[Butschi]

Long time forum lurker here. Very interesting discussion and also a good source for informations, thank you for that.

I too wonder what Putin's end game could be. A week ago I would have been willing to bet good money on that Putin is just bluffing. Not even that, so far I actually had the impression that he is more into Chess than Poker. More or less everything he did so far was rather rational or calculated. Georgia and Eastern Ukraine were obvous consequence of both countries being considered NATO candidates by some. Keeping some kind of frozen conflict going is an "easy" way to prevent a country from joining NATO. The intervention in Syria meant the West had to talk to Russia again, meaning it was a major power again not some regional power as Obama once called the country. And because NATO and especially the US did not exactly behave like saints during the last decades, Putin had made good progress in deviding Europe and the US along several fault lines.

Now this... I don't know. Playing a bit smarter Putin would certainly have been able to gain a lot of concessions. So it seems, gaining anything via negociations seems to never have been his goal. What I find really disturbing is this: If he is really playing poker and still seeks to destroy or at the very least severly weaken NATO, he could go all in. Attacking Poland is out of the question, I think. But the Baltic states... Having Ukraine and Belarus, Russia would be in a very good position to cut off reinforcments for the Baltic or at least make the effort costly. Combined with a threat that any intervention would immediatly be answered with all out nuclear war (remember also, the latest generation of Russian nuclear missiles is causing NATO some headache), the ball would be firmly in NATO's court: Risk nuclear annihilation for waging war that would be difficult to win even if the war stayed conventional? Mourir pour Dantzig (or Riga, for that matter)? Of course, what would NATO be worth, then?

Sounds way too Tom Clancy or Larry Bond, I would have said a week ago, but now...

[Probus]

Ran out of reactions today. +1 to what many of you are saying.