How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[kraze]

Zakharova: "it won't be something that Israeli politicians that started this info campaign, would want to hear [...] that Israeli mercenaries are fighting back to back with "Azov".

 

Oh god, they aren't stopping.

 

[Huba]

Peskov denies that Russia will mobilize on 9th. Still believing they'll  'win' without it, or just plainly lying?

 

[billbindc]

6 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Assessment of what the deal is with Girkin:

I totally agree with this.  As I said weeks ago when we started getting Girkin rants translated, he's unlikely saying critical things without some degree or reassurance that he's not straying from FSB's messaging for whatever their primary purpose is.  However, as I noted this last rant specifically went after Putin and his inner circle.  That wasn't in any of his previous rants at all (one hint one time from what I saw).  So either he has strayed from his handler's messaging or... the messaging parameters have  changed.

If there's something brewing against Putin, and the FSB is involved, then Girkin's change of messaging might be an indication that things are progressing.

Steve

It will be a faction led by Sergei Patrushev most likely. He is a hardliners hardliner and someone Putin would have had trouble crossing before this all began. Now? He's an elder FSB statesman in an excellent position to criticize how this 'special operation' was conducted. If you are coup curious, don't look towards the liberal end of the spectrum at this point. Russians are still in the delusional phase of the process and the important components of the system are far more likely to gravitate towards a hardliner who can putatively get it right than a liberal saying Russia's blown it as a system and a country.

[Der Zeitgeist]

5 minutes ago, Huba said:

Peskov denies that Russia will mobilize on 9th. Still believing they'll  'win' without it, or just plainly lying?

Even more plainly: He simply doesn't know himself.

[Haiduk]

5 hours ago, Offshoot said:

Has Starlink now been distributed en masse to units?

Starlink had plans to come in Ukriane as far as month before a war. Now about 10 000 terminals already brought to Ukraine by USAID. Not for militarues only, but also for critical infrastructure, hospitals, local authorities etc. Azov fighters in Mariupol also received Starlink terminal, when was possible to bring supply with helicopters to the port. 

Reportedly for militiaries more appropriate old version of terminal with round antenna, because it has Ethernet port, when the new and more compact terminal with square antenna has only Wi-Fi connection which cab be detected by Russian EW and ELINT units.

 

UKR mech.battalions have satellite communication terminal SSZ, based on commercial VSAT terminal TooWay of our local DataGroup company. But I read theese terminals in combat conditions often had some problems with stable and fast connection even without enemy EW impact.

On the photo two variants of SSZ

Edited May 4, 2022 by Haiduk

[c3k]

14 hours ago, Harmon Rabb said:

Good news for Ukraine if true.

Would this be the same strike "near Kherson" that killed so many officers a few days ago?

Not the one that wounded Gerasimov...the other one.

(Speaks to Ukraine's abilities that there can be confusion over these.)

[Haiduk]

1 hour ago, c3k said:

Would this be the same strike "near Kherson" that killed so many officers a few days ago?

Not the one that wounded Gerasimov...the other one.

(Speaks to Ukraine's abilities that there can be confusion over these.)

No, this is new one. And this could be even company HQ.

"Strike on Kherson, killing many officers" - looks like this is another fairy tail of Arestovich based on information from Kherson citizens, that building of one of city enlistment offices was set fire by molotov coctails or even blew up. And as if several officers were lost or injured.

Though, our artillery and MLRS often strike at Chornobaivka airfield, so maybe there also some HQ was hit once again

Edited May 4, 2022 by Haiduk

[gnarly]

A Russian (video says Wagner PMC) infantry squad surround, suppress with grenades and capture some Ukranian infantry.... From about the 12 minute mark

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ov7pC4Jcn7w&t

Edited May 4, 2022 by gnarly

[The_Capt]

9 hours ago, BeondTheGrave said:

By my rough math there were, what, 11 CAAs assigned to the start of the war? If you assume ~30% overall casualties for the Russians thats 3.3 CAAe worth of manpower removed. Wouldn't surprise me that the northern armies and Kharkov axis armies are basically shot and that everything in the south is running by eating what they can from the other directions. I mean we basically saw confirmation of this with the Kyiv pullout, right? Northern army was beaten and so it was redeployed to feed its manpower into the south. 

This tracks.  I cannot recall where I picked it up but a CAA is supposed to run with about 300 logistics vehicles and right now they are down just over 3 CAA’s worth based on Oryx visual confirmations.  So +30% of original invasion force makes sense.

It also makes sense that the RA did not have enough time to integrate replacements as there was only about 3 weeks between withdraw from the North and this Donbas operational.  So the very likely glued broken formations together and stuffed whatever they could find (contractors/ mercs, etc) plus anything they had left into this push.  If the rumours of “mobilization” on 9 May are true that is a signal that this second phase of the war is not working for the Russian military, while it continues to bleed.

Now here the math adds up for the RA…

[Nicdain]

2 hours ago, Huba said:

Peskov denies that Russia will mobilize on 9th. Still believing they'll  'win' without it, or just plainly lying?

 

In the days preceding February 24, they perjured that they would not carry out any invasion of Ukraine ...
how can we trust russian statements?

[sross112]

Driving down the Dnepr for Kherson? Looks like they might be at the first bridge. Might get interesting down south.

[billbindc]

https://twitter.com/JominiW/status/1521700041601302529/photo/1

[Haiduk]

Russians have a lack of fresh infantry - after losses in Ukraine, probably many contractors, which stayed in Russia, have a low motivation and reject to go at war. So, their General Staff and MoD try to involve volunteers either for contract service or even by esteblishing of volunteer units. Russia has many patriotic and paramilitary (like cossacks) and veterans organisations, so they theoretically can reinforce their army. Our intelligence claimed Russian MoD demanded from each Federal region 200 enlisted per week, except large cities.

Two examples of such volunteer units:

Cossack volunteer detachment "Don", armed with upgraded BMP-2M. Established in the mid of April. Sinse 26th of April involved in fight on Izium axis. As I can recall this unit was formed in Orenburg, so BMP-2M obviously were handed over to cossacks from the park of 21st motor-rifle brigade (heavy), which armed with these IFVs. BMP-2M of this brigade already was spotted somewhere in NE direction in March/April. Either cossacks formally signed contracts with this brigade and some unit was formed from them, or they are just volunteer unit subordinated to some "Izium group HQ", I don't know. 

 

One more volunteer unit "Sever" ("North") - it was formed probably from citizens of Russia, members of Donbas Volunteers Union (DVU) or similar veteran organizations.  DVU leader Boroday claimed in 2015 this orgainzation can have more that 30000 members of those, who fought on Donbas, but much later he told his organization has 1500 members

"Sever" is subordinated to 1st Army Corps of DPR.

Edited May 4, 2022 by Haiduk

[The_Capt]

15 minutes ago, Nicdain said:

In the days preceding February 24, they perjured that they would not carry out any invasion of Ukraine ...
how can we trust russian statements?

There is a seed of a very important point here - No, we cannot trust anything Russia is saying...because they are the enemy.  I am not sure it has sunk in yet within the western world but at some point -some argue from the very beginning- this whole thing has become a war between Russia and the Western Global Order.  If the May 9th things happens or not, we are already in an undeclared war between Russia, its allies, and the western world.  Ukraine gets the unfortunate distinction of being the battleground but this thing does not end if either Russia takes the entire nation, or is kicked out of the entire nation of Ukraine; this is a violent collision of irreconcilable certainties as to how the world will be ordered into the latter half of the 21st century.

I strongly suspect that we are seeing orders of magnitude proxy happening here.  Ukraine is one, Russia is the other.  And I am not going all "conspiracy theory" here but the other great world power is watching this all in the background and seeing a lot of wins as outcomes.  China is not only tacitly supporting Russia and, it is grabbing up all that US intel - a brilliant move to beat Russia to the punch, but risky in its exposure to China, a risk I am sure the US was aware of.  It could be argued that China is staying on the side lines because it has the most to gain in this collision, and it is likely in its interests to keep it going until Russia is burned out and pulled into its sphere further as a weakened and dependent partner.

This also sets up for further economic incursion into Europe as there is nothing illegal with Chinese owned oil and gas, coming out of Russian soil, being bought by Europe.  Our sanctions are against Russian corporations.  As this thing expands and intensifies, I am starting to see a Chinese long-game emerge as Russian and Western world drive whatever is left of Russia into the Eastern orbit.  I personally would have thought this impossible given culture and history but here we are.

As to the current fight, this is very much us vs them and will be long after the shooting stops in Ukraine itself.  Welcome to the Complicated War 1.

  

[Haiduk]

UKR position under heavy mortar or artillery fire. Interesting bastion-like position

 

 

Edited May 4, 2022 by Haiduk

[akd]

 

[hcrof]

23 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

There is a seed of a very important point here - No, we cannot trust anything Russia is saying...because they are the enemy.  I am not sure it has sunk in yet within the western world but at some point -some argue from the very beginning- this whole thing has become a war between Russia and the Western Global Order.  If the May 9th things happens or not, we are already in an undeclared war between Russia, its allies, and the western world.  Ukraine gets the unfortunate distinction of being the battleground but this thing does not end if either Russia takes the entire nation, or is kicked out of the entire nation of Ukraine; this is a violent collision of irreconcilable certainties as to how the world will be ordered into the latter half of the 21st century.

I strongly suspect that we are seeing orders of magnitude proxy happening here.  Ukraine is one, Russia is the other.  And I am not going all "conspiracy theory" here but the other great world power is watching this all in the background and seeing a lot of wins as outcomes.  China is not only tacitly supporting Russia and, it is grabbing up all that US intel - a brilliant move to beat Russia to the punch, but risky in its exposure to China, a risk I am sure the US was aware of.  It could be argued that China is staying on the side lines because it has the most to gain in this collision, and it is likely in its interests to keep it going until Russia is burned out and pulled into its sphere further as a weakened and dependent partner.

This also sets up for further economic incursion into Europe as there is nothing illegal with Chinese owned oil and gas, coming out of Russian soil, being bought by Europe.  Our sanctions are against Russian corporations.  As this thing expands and intensifies, I am starting to see a Chinese long-game emerge as Russian and Western world drive whatever is left of Russia into the Eastern orbit.  I personally would have thought this impossible given culture and history but here we are.

As to the current fight, this is very much us vs them and will be long after the shooting stops in Ukraine itself.  Welcome to the Complicated War 1.

  

I hear you, but as far as I can see the Chinese are completely caught by surprise by this war, have realised that they know practically nothing about the region and are scrambling to avoid committing to any position that might come to bite them later.

 

It seems that for all their great power pretentions they have realised their diplomatic/intelligence corps is lacking, the western alliance has teeth and the Russian army they admired so much has feet of clay. I imagine their worldview is being challenged quite hard right now and I really hope this results in them playing more nice in the future - they have a long way to go before they are a true superpower and it would benefit everybody to tone down all the nationalistic stuff. 

[Haiduk]

20 minutes ago, akd said:

 

Russians claim they bombed and destroyed bridge today. The bridge was unseen for Russians about a week until DefMon3 wrote about this yesterday and today Russians already destroyed it (maybe). Damned "experts". 

Edited May 4, 2022 by Haiduk

[The_Capt]

54 minutes ago, hcrof said:

It seems that for all their great power pretentions they have realised their diplomatic/intelligence corps is lacking, the western alliance has teeth and the Russian army they admired so much has feet of clay. I imagine their worldview is being challenged quite hard right now and I really hope this results in them playing more nice in the future - they have a long way to go before they are a true superpower and it would benefit everybody to tone down all the nationalistic stuff.

Not sure anything we are discussing here meets the "nationalistic" definition as no one nation is being represented, this is more a discussion on "what happens next" on a global scale.

It seems like every time I hear, or get into a discussion on China and the power contest with the current global order the usual suspects come out.  We get the ardent anti-Chinese paranoia ("they are in my plumbing") and what you pose here, "The Glass Dragon", the only thing missing is poking holes in property bubbles and demographics.

I do want to pull on one thread here that often comes out of the "Glass Dragon" sphere, I highlighted it in your post.  That has been the "get in line" strategy we have been basically relying upon for over 30 years.  The hope that China would see the error of its ways as we demonstrate the benefits of the current global order, while we try to contain its rapid expansion.  It is basically a version of the Cold War strategy, and it has not worked, nor is it likely to in my opinion.  And most of the 5EYEs Security and Defence strategies agree with me, so there is that. 

Finally, I am not sure what the definition of a "true superpower" is, but this gets thrown around a lot as well.  Are we talking the ability to leverage influence on a global scale?  Is it comparative to the US?  Is it marshalling collective will?  These terms get thrown out in what looks more like an attempt to make ourselves feel better than really looking at our environment (i.e. "well we are still a superpower and they aren't...oh look the Friends Reunion is on")

I think we are past "normalization hope" here, as this current war looks and feels like the opening of a new phase of this thing. 

I was at a defence conference way back in 2015 and it was largely boring old stuff one expects hear at these things.  There was a lot of focus on Russia because of the Crimea but it was the usual "we will win through teamwork and capitalism" type stuff.  Then this old guy was on a panel that made the whole room sit up and take notice.  He was in charge of covert action in Afghanistan back in the 80s, which was pretty impressive, but his points on Russia resonate to this day.  His position was that the future global competition, as it relates to Russia, was which sphere that nation was driven or pulled into.  We, the west, needed to pull Russia towards Europe, and that should be easy as gravity of history and culture was on our side.  If Russia were to be driven into the Eastern sphere 1) shame on us for letting it happen and 2) that would be a very bad thing.

Here we are in 2022, this thing is not decided but it sure looks like it is sliding in the bad direction to me.  I frankly subscribe to the "who wins out of all this" as a metric, and right now China's position looks pretty solid. 

Edited May 4, 2022 by The_Capt

[Haiduk]

UKR troops hit oil depot in Makiivka city, Donestk oblast (occupied since 2014). DPR representatives told four reservoirs per 5000 tons each destroyed. Also several refueler trucks were destroyed by fire

Edited May 4, 2022 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

Odd... Fleet Ka-27 escorting combat pair of Ka-52 and Mi-28N (second video)

 

[Battlefront.com]

5 hours ago, TheVulture said:

Even non-military stuff in Russia keeps catching fire. At least this one probably isn't Ukraine, and is probably just an accident (or crazy anarchists)

Or failed businesses looking to do insurance fraud?  I don't know how insurance works in Russia, but if their insurance doesn't have exceptions for "acts of terrorism" then maybe someone thinks "I know, I'll burn my business down, blame it on Ukrainians, and collect the insurance money".  Considering how half arsed everything in Russia seems to be, insurance systems not properly designed to handle such fraud wouldn't surprise me at all.

Steve

[benpark]

That pontoon bridge is very interesting. Both in location - just in front of an area of the forested band that looks to be clear enough for vehicular passage and directly threatening Russian supply lines, and in the implicit message that the Ukrainian forces in the area aren't looking to merely absorb Russian attacks in the area still.

[benpark]

AND the fact that they could engineer up a pontoon bridge, unnoticed for a week apparently. The Russian intelligence game is proving to be very, very behind.

[Battlefront.com]

4 hours ago, kraze said:

Zakharova: "it won't be something that Israeli politicians that started this info campaign, would want to hear [...] that Israeli mercenaries are fighting back to back with "Azov".

Oh god, they aren't stopping.

Russia is very good at making enemies where they could otherwise make friends in order to short cut their way towards something.  Which is the worst thing about Russia.  If they weren't so Hell bent on destroying everybody else so they can feel better about themselves they really would have power and influence.

Steve