How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Kinophile]

1 hour ago, akd said:

Holocaust survivor who devoted her life to building modern Mariupol gives interview after evacuation:

 

I’d prefer to hear the actual intercepts, but interesting:

 

Interesting that he mentions an entire arny is combat ineffective. Implies that losses within high level formations are only being made up by other elements from that formation, entire armies eating themselves from the inside out attempting to maintain that external shell.

[BeondTheGrave]

1 hour ago, Kinophile said:

Interesting that he mentions an entire arny is combat ineffective. Implies that losses within high level formations are only being made up by other elements from that formation, entire armies eating themselves from the inside out attempting to maintain that external shell.

By my rough math there were, what, 11 CAAs assigned to the start of the war? If you assume ~30% overall casualties for the Russians thats 3.3 CAAe worth of manpower removed. Wouldn't surprise me that the northern armies and Kharkov axis armies are basically shot and that everything in the south is running by eating what they can from the other directions. I mean we basically saw confirmation of this with the Kyiv pullout, right? Northern army was beaten and so it was redeployed to feed its manpower into the south. 

[Battlefront.com]

The reading of the Russian pulling a pin on a grenade inside a BMP is believable to me.  Even in the US military, which screens for mental illness and instills positive aspects of being in the military, these sorts of things have been known to happen.  Rates of suicide are much higher in the military than the general populace, in large part due to prolonged combat.

So, take the average Russian soldier who is *NOT* screened for mental illness *AT ALL*, put him in a pressure cooker with others who have their own problems, all serving a military that continually emphasizes brutality instead of honor... then put them under immense stress and despair.  Yeah, it doesn't take a room full of qualified psychologists to conclude "yeah, that's not going to go well".

So did this incident happen or is it Ukrainian propaganda?  We'll likely never know for sure.  However, it's totally plausible.

Steve

[danfrodo]

15 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

The reading of the Russian pulling a pin on a grenade inside a BMP is believable to me.  Even in the US military, which screens for mental illness and instills positive aspects of being in the military, these sorts of things have been known to happen.  Rates of suicide are much higher in the military than the general populace, in large part due to prolonged combat.

So, take the average Russian soldier who is *NOT* screened for mental illness *AT ALL*, put him in a pressure cooker with others who have their own problems, all serving a military that continually emphasizes brutality instead of honor... then put them under immense stress and despair.  Yeah, it doesn't take a room full of qualified psychologists to conclude "yeah, that's not going to go well".

So did this incident happen or is it Ukrainian propaganda?  We'll likely never know for sure.  However, it's totally plausible.

Steve

yeah, we can't know if this happened.  But take some 19 yr old kid, throw him into a brutalized system, then present him w tons of casualties and a feeling of no escape from an inevitable death, and anything could happen.  The 'alleged' intercepts that UKR publishes always have someone talking about how they are being sent to slaughter by the system.

[MikeyD]

Unlike that Canadian guy a few pages back, the Ukraine translated intercepts don't usually feel like 'creative writing'. It does feel like they listened to 300 intercepts and cherry-picked the best.

[Offshoot]

I imagine alcohol also plays a big part in Russian soldiers' behaviour.

 

[Battlefront.com]

From today's ISW report:

Quote

The Ukrainian General Staff reported that elements of the 1st and 2nd Army Corps (forces of the self-proclaimed Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics), 8th, 58th, and 5th Combined Arms Armies, Pacific Fleet, 2nd and 41st Combined Arms Armies, 90th Tank Division, and unspecified VDV elements are regrouping to advance westward in the direction of Lyman and Slovyansk.

As I was reading this I was thinking exactly what followed in the report:

Quote

The large number of combined arms armies, divisions, and other organizations identified as contributing troops to this effort suggests that many if not most of the Russian units engaged on this axis are understrength and in ad-hoc organizations. That observation, if true, may help explain the slow and halting pace of the Russian advance.

Oh, it's true. 

I don't have a detailed list handy of what's presumed to be in each of the 8 aforementioned Corps/CCAs, but generally it should average to be at least 2 Divisions each plus 90th TD.  That's 17 Divisions.  Each Division should have a minimum of 3 Regiments (2x Mech + 1x Tank or 2x Tank + 1x Mech), which means there's 51 Regiments plus the 2 VDV.  Each Regiment should be able to put up at least 1 BTG, but technically 2 BTGs.  If we take 53 Regiments that means there should be a minimum of 53 BTGs and technically 106.  At 700 personnel per BTG that means Russia should have 37,000 minimum in this fight with a theoretical 74,000 available.

Schlottman puts the BTGs in this area at 46, which is below the minimum by quite a bit and more than 50% less than what technically should be in the field.  At "full strength" this should equate to about 32,000.

It's impossible to say what the real strength of Russia's forces are in the area.  Using a depleted strength of 500 per BTG (70% full strength) means Schlottman's count produces about 23,000 soldiers available for frontline service.  With 260km frontage that's just shy of 90 soldiers per KM.  A number that is fairly consistent with a calculation I did a few days ago for the front as a whole.

This is a mess for Russian command and control.  This means entire Armies are directing maybe 5 or 6 battalion sized units each, yet there are still divisional and regimental staffs in the mix.  Talk about inefficiency.

Steve

[chuckdyke]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

The reading of the Russian pulling a pin on a grenade inside a BMP is believable to me. 

You know the difference between 'The Kremlin' and a psychopath asylum? Answer: There is none. Their politics are starting to make sense now. 

[Battlefront.com]

7 minutes ago, Offshoot said:

I imagine alcohol also plays a big part in Russian soldiers' behaviour.

Crap, I can't believe I forgot to omit alcohol and drugs from my post on the grenade incident.  Yeah, lots of survivor stories make heavy mention of Russians being under the control of substances.  Which is reflective of Russian society in general.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

Assessment of what the deal is with Girkin:

I totally agree with this.  As I said weeks ago when we started getting Girkin rants translated, he's unlikely saying critical things without some degree or reassurance that he's not straying from FSB's messaging for whatever their primary purpose is.  However, as I noted this last rant specifically went after Putin and his inner circle.  That wasn't in any of his previous rants at all (one hint one time from what I saw).  So either he has strayed from his handler's messaging or... the messaging parameters have  changed.

If there's something brewing against Putin, and the FSB is involved, then Girkin's change of messaging might be an indication that things are progressing.

Steve

[danfrodo]

5 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Assessment of what the deal is with Girkin:

I totally agree with this.  As I said weeks ago when we started getting Girkin rants translated, he's unlikely saying critical things without some degree or reassurance that he's not straying from FSB's messaging for whatever their primary purpose is.  However, as I noted this last rant specifically went after Putin and his inner circle.  That wasn't in any of his previous rants at all (one hint one time from what I saw).  So either he has strayed from his handler's messaging or... the messaging parameters have  changed.

If there's something brewing against Putin, and the FSB is involved, then Girkin's change of messaging might be an indication that things are progressing.

Steve

Definitely one or the other, as Steve said.  He certainly can't be saying what he's saying w/o permission from Putin et al or protection from folks Putin doesn't want to cross.  And if he's criticizing Putin that probably means he has protection.  'course, one day he might just decide to do a murder-suicide.  Dangerous games being played in Russia these days.

[Battlefront.com]

Looks like someone had a good day yesterday.  This is from the American volunteer's unit after a specific mission to go get this stuff.  My guess is they got intel on a supply unit that wasn't making much progress and they decided it was a good time to go shopping.  Lots of ammo, grenades, a bunch of AT-4? ATGM reloads, and some small arms.

 

[Offshoot]

He also has a tweet about Starlink indicating he got it recently. I just saw another tweet where a Ukrainian commander thanks Musk for Starlink. Has Starlink now been distributed en masse to units? And how susceptible to Russian jamming will Starlink be (having read Ukrainian comments about the prevalence of jamming)?

 

 

[Battlefront.com]

These Russians must be pretty tired after all this running.  Looks like some amount of time passed between the edits (BTR next to shelter/bunker there for a bit then absent for later clips).  The direct hit to the shelter/bunker seems didn't seem to do major casualties to the guys within.  Sheesh, looks like a whole platoon was in there.  Eventually it seems like the Russians decided to just run to another town instead of going back and forth within this one:

 

[FancyCat]

UKR General Staff, is reporting fighting in the area of Tomyna Balka, ISW's map shows it as deep in Russian territory right now.

Quote

On the Pivdennyi Buh front, Russian troops fired on Ukrainian troops from artillery, multiple-launch rocket systems and tanks along the entire line of contact in order to destroy the fortification equipment of Ukrainian positions. Russian troops intensified hostilities near the town of Tomyna Balka.

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/05/4/7343874/

 

 

[Battlefront.com]

Sometimes its the attention to detail that wins wars.  Ukraine not willing to let a Russian flag hang on one of its recently liberated border towers still under sniper fire from the Russian side:

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarRoom/comments/uhm112/in_the_sumy_region_border_guards_destroyed_the/

 

[JonS]

Between autoplaying videos, and disallowing hotlinks, reddit is the ****ing worst. I mean, /maybe/ if they had paid writers creating content, but this treatment of someone else's words provided for free is bs.

Edited May 4, 2022 by JonS

[TheVulture]

1 hour ago, JonS said:

Between autoplaying videos, and disallowing hotlinks, reddit is the ****ing worst. I mean, /maybe/ if they had paid writers creating content, but this treatment of someone else's words provided for free is bs.

Reddit is indeed the cesspit of the internt (if you stay away from 4chan, and never wandered in to the Peng threads here). But with the rate at which companies and groups are shifting to using Discord as their primary communication, it won't be long until you are pining for the comparative usability and friendliness of reddit.

[Huba]

Something burning in Russia again. I don't know how to precisely compare it, but I'm under the impression that outside of the front zone, Russia has suffered more infrastructure damage then Ukraine in last week.

 

[TheVulture]

EU discussing military support for Moldova.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/eu-says-considering-more-military-support-moldova-2022-05-04/

Quote

 

The European Union is considering additional military support to Moldova, EU Council President Charles Michel said on a visit to Chisinau on Wednesday.

The 27-nation bloc is looking into how it can provide more military support to Moldova, including more help in building up the country's forces, Michel told a joint news conference with Moldovan President Maia Sandu.

He said this would come on top of help in the fields of logistics and cyber defence that the EU had already agreed. Michel refused to give any details but said it was extremely important to avoid any escalation.

 

On the Moldovan front, the Ukraine General Staff says that the Russian Army is making preparations for evacuating officers families from transnistria

https://t.me/censor_net/12131

 

Edited May 4, 2022 by TheVulture

[TheVulture]

2 minutes ago, Huba said:

Something burning in Russia again. I don't know how to precisely compare it, but I'm under the impression that outside of the front zone, Russia has suffered more infrastructure damage then Ukraine in last week.

Even non-military stuff in Russia keeps catching fire. At least this one probably isn't Ukraine, and is probably just an accident (or crazy anarchists)

 

 

[Huba]

Just now, TheVulture said:

EU discussing military support for Moldova

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/eu-says-considering-more-military-support-moldova-2022-05-04/

 

 

I understand that EU official diplomatic language has to be dovish, but I think that preventing escalation at the moment is only in Russian interest. For Ukraine, EU and Moldova, solving the Transnistria issue would be most appreciated I think, like cutting open and cleaning a nasty boil - a bit of pain but a long term relief.

[Der Zeitgeist]

13 minutes ago, Huba said:

I understand that EU official diplomatic language has to be dovish, but I think that preventing escalation at the moment is only in Russian interest. For Ukraine, EU and Moldova, solving the Transnistria issue would be most appreciated I think, like cutting open and cleaning a nasty boil - a bit of pain but a long term relief.

I just hope we're ready for whatever comes if this thing escalates any further.

In Germany, a lot of the discourse right now (especially in SPD circles) is still about preventing us being drawn into the war ourselves. I don't think people have realized that this might eventually happen anyway.

[LongLeftFlank]

4 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Looks like someone had a good day yesterday.  This is from the American volunteer's unit after a specific mission to go get this stuff.  My guess is they got intel on a supply unit that wasn't making much progress and they decided it was a good time to go shopping.  Lots of ammo, grenades, a bunch of AT-4? ATGM reloads, and some small arms.

 

LOL, these snakeeaters HALOed into the Ugly Forest and hit every branch on every tree lol.

[full disclosure: I resemble that remark! And I swear I recognize a few of them from Burgos pubs]

[Huba]

26 minutes ago, Der Zeitgeist said:

I just hope we're ready for whatever comes if this thing escalates any further.

In Germany, a lot of the discourse right now (especially in SPD circles) is still about preventing us being drawn into the war ourselves. I don't think people have realized that this might eventually happen anyway.

I still fail to see how this escalation would happen exactly. Woulds TS invade Moldova? This has no chance of success, even with Moldova's puny army. Apart from that, any escalation would have to come from UA or Moldovas side (which I'm sure will happen if Russia is beaten badly enough, it's just inconceivable that TS status would remain unchanged after this war)