How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[danfrodo]

1 minute ago, Beleg85 said:

We discussed 300 pages ago about events of Great Smuta and its mark on collective Russian psyche; or rather we should say on Kremlin's ideology of sacred tsarist power. Unfortunatelly, we probably underappreciated desolation made by popculture of Putin's era in the mind of average Russian nationalist- normally events from XVII cent. would long be forgotten, but Putin's version of history needs as much "cannibalic" external powers invading Mother Russia as it can only find.

On the other side, it's kind of flattering those two Polish mercanary brigades scarred them so much. Almost like they would remember their beating at Klushino:  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Klushino

(sorry for historical paralels, just couldn't resist).

I actually would like to find out that we've been deceived and that RU propaganda is correct for once.  Meaning I WISH there were 2 Polish brigades fighting there!  W NATO air cover.  yeah yeah yeah I know that's crazy & an escalation but jeebus that would be one fun CMBS module.  Poles finally get to punch back at Russian oppressors.  

[NamEndedAllen]

4 hours ago, Probus said:

Except when you need it

(see “Florida Governor DeSantis”

[Vanir Ausf B]

9 hours ago, Grigb said:

DPR fighter reports about RU army personnel issues:

• Moto Rifle unit - 2,200 men
• Participates in SMO from the beginning. Actively took part in the offensive at Northeast
• Killed by September - around 90
• Wounded by September - around 260
• Total personnel by September - 900
• [Refuseniks - 950]
• Most affected - officers. They have soldiers but no officers
• Currently they are training distinguished privates and sergeants to give them lieutenant straps and fill vacant command positions

2.9 killed/wounded ratio.

Interesting that refuseniks outnumber casualties, by a lot.

[Twisk]

9 minutes ago, NamEndedAllen said:

Some context. The USA is already the largest oil producer in the world. Even with compromises to avoid the worst damages that occur. And we cannot keep up with the demand from other countries besides our own. This does not include or reference NATURAL GAS PRODUCTION. USA also Numero Uno. See  at bottom. Using up even more of what USA has remaining in the ground plays into OPEC (and Russia?) hands. In grander strategy, USA needs to find multi pronged means to address demand. While still able to be largest energy producer.
Top 10 Oil-Producing Countries (barrels per day):

Country	Monthly Production	Reference Month
United States	11,567,000	12/2021
Russia	10,503,000	11/2021
Saudi Arabia	10,225,000	02/2022
Canada	4,656,000	11/2021
Iraq	4,260,000	02/2022
China	3,969,000	11/2021
United Arab Emirates	2,954,000	02/2022
Brazil	2,852,000	11/2021
Kuwait	2,610,000	02/2022
Iran	2,546,000	02/2022

Top 10 Countries that Produce the Most Natural Gas (Cubic Meters, 2020):

1. United States — 914.6 billion
2. Russia — 638.5 billion
3. Iran — 250.8 billion
4. China — 194 billion
5. Qatar — 171.3 billion
6. Canada — 165.2 billion
7. Australia — 142.5 billion
8. Saudi Arabia — 112.1 billion
9. Norway — 111.5 billion
10. Algeria — 81.5 billion

Top 10 Countries that Consume the Most Natural Gas (Cubic Meters, 2020):

1. United States — 832 billion
2. Russia — 411.1 billion
3. China — 330.6 billion
4. Iran — 233.1 billion
5. Canada — 112.6 billion
6. Saudi Arabia — 112.1 billion
7. Japan — 104.4 billion
8. Germany — 86.5 billion
9. Mexico — 86.3 billion

 

It is impressive size of Russian production. Also important that Russia has larger surplus than United States. Almost double surplus to trade. Gives good idea of shortfalls that can happen. If I am understanding nordstream 1 is destroyed so all or most natural gas flow to Europe from Russia is now ended?

German consumption alone is nearly all U.S. surplus!

 

[dan/california]

17 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

We discussed 300 pages ago about events of Great Smuta and its mark on collective Russian psyche; or rather we should say on Kremlin's ideology of sacred tsarist power. Unfortunatelly, we probably underappreciated desolation made by popculture of Putin's era in the mind of average Russian nationalist- normally events from XVII cent. would long be forgotten, but Putin's version of history needs as much "cannibalic" external powers invading Mother Russia as it can only find.

On the other side, it's kind of flattering those two Polish mercanary brigades scarred them so much. Almost like they would remember their beating at Klushino:  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Klushino

(sorry for historical paralels, just couldn't resist).

Can you recommend a book on this little episode, because I think I am a history nerd, and I am clueless on this one. Comments that folks think I am clueless on everything are unnecessary, I know how you feel, you are only right half the time, and I am a stunning genius about socks. 

[poesel]

18 minutes ago, NamEndedAllen said:

Top 10 Countries that Consume the Most Natural Gas (Cubic Meters, 2020):

1. United States — 832 billion

...

1. Germany — 86.5 billion

 

(the numbering is off due to quoting - Germany is 8th)

A bit off-topic, but at 4x the size, the US uses 10x the gas compared to Germany. I thought we were squandering the stuff. What is the US doing with it?

[chuckdyke]

Tactical nuclear warheads? This technology is knocking on the door. 

 

[Artkin]

20 minutes ago, poesel said:

(the numbering is off due to quoting - Germany is 8th)

A bit off-topic, but at 4x the size, the US uses 10x the gas compared to Germany. I thought we were squandering the stuff. What is the US doing with it?

Living large. My grandfather told me when Khrushchev (IIRC) visited, he called America a "paradise". I can't find this quote, but my grandfather is no slouch.

Edited October 7, 2022 by Artkin

[Ultradave]

23 minutes ago, poesel said:

What is the US doing with it?

Well, I heat my home (as do many). Hot air gas heat. Cheaper than oil or electric here.

Dave

[chrisl]

1 hour ago, Beleg85 said:

400 years and they still remember False Dmitry?...Jesus, Putin's propaganda movies like "1610" apparently left some marks.

There's a blast from the past.  About 10% of those 400 years ago I did a report on False Dmitry in a high school Russian History class.

[Bennie]

https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/natural-gas/use-of-natural-gas.php

38% electric power

33% industrial

15% residential

11% commercial

3% transportation

[acrashb]

5 minutes ago, Artkin said:

Living large. My grandfather told me when Khrushchev (IIRC) visited, he called America a "paradise". I can't find this quote, but my grandfather is no slouch.

Pancakes for breakfast, every day. 

I think there are more areas that need more heating in winter than Germany; also more areas that need cooling (requiring among other things natural gas generation) in summer: Köppen climate classification - Wikipedia

Otherwise, standard of living appears about the same on average: File:Map of countries by GDP (PPP) per capita in 2022 by IMF.png - Wikipedia

 

[NamEndedAllen]

29 minutes ago, poesel said:

(the numbering is off due to quoting - Germany is 8th)

A bit off-topic, but at 4x the size, the US uses 10x the gas compared to Germany. I thought we were squandering the stuff. What is the US doing with it?

Cooking with gas! Gas central heating!  Crank it up! Gas Turbines!
We in the USA have been very good for a long time at using tons of energy without too much thought about it efficiency until recently. I think efficiency here has been improving in recent years, with a bunch of tax rebate incentives and regulatory changes. But nothing here or in most places has really changed the huge appetite of modern civilizations for stuff that requires lots of fuels.

[danfrodo]

xxxx

Edited October 7, 2022 by danfrodo
unneeded

[Artkin]

3 minutes ago, acrashb said:

Pancakes for breakfast, every day. 

I think there are more areas that need more heating in winter than Germany; also more areas that need cooling (requiring among other things natural gas generation) in summer: Köppen climate classification - Wikipedia

Otherwise, standard of living appears about the same on average: File:Map of countries by GDP (PPP) per capita in 2022 by IMF.png - Wikipedia

 

Is that before or after taxes?

I won't dive too deep, but I believe Germany pays a few more % than the US does per the same income.

[sburke]

man this is tangent ville thread.  C'mon AFU, we need more info or next we'll start talking about whether americans should wear knit caps indoors for those places with cold winters to save on heat.....

[chrisl]

Just now, sburke said:

man this is tangent ville thread.  C'mon AFU, we need more info or next we'll start talking about whether americans should wear knit caps indoors for those places with cold winters to save on heat.....

Large wool socks can do double duty as caps in the winter.

[sburke]

2 minutes ago, Artkin said:

Is that before or after taxes?

I won't dive too deep, but I believe Germany pays a few more % than the US does per the same income.

but you have national health care... oh my god what have I done?!!!!  Sorry Elvis!!!

[Artkin]

3 minutes ago, sburke said:

but you have national health care... oh my god what have I done?!!!!  Sorry Elvis!!!

Good work contributing.

[acrashb]

10 minutes ago, Artkin said:

Is that before or after taxes?

I won't dive too deep, but I believe Germany pays a few more % than the US does per the same income.

Good question, curiosity got the better of me and here's the answer: apparently it's before: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_tax_revenue_to_GDP_ratio

And, to keep this a bit more war-oriented, apparently the Switchblades made in part with natural-gas created energy and possibly natural gas-created plastics are doing good work in Ukraine:

 

Edited October 7, 2022 by acrashb

[Artkin]

3 minutes ago, acrashb said:

Good question, curiosity got the better of me and here's the answer: apparently it's before: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_tax_revenue_to_GDP_ratio

Unfortunately these appear to just be averages for all people. If you want the real number you have to compare the tax brackets (And then add state for everyone in the US). There could be a disproportionate amount of wealthy individuals in the US as opposed to Germany which would skew the statistics.

And with that, I'm finished.

[sburke]

2 minutes ago, Artkin said:

There could be a disproportionate amount of wealthy individuals in the US as opposed to Germany which would skew the statistics.

And with that, I'm finished.

silly boy, rich people don't pay taxes..   

[acrashb]

Newsweek is certainly feeling impending victory.  The assessment is related to control of water on the Crimea, chokepoint being Nova Kakhovka.

Headline "Ukraine Close to Controlling Crimea as Russia's Southern Front Collapses"

https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-russia-southern-front-crimea-water-nova-kakhovka-1748811

 

Edited October 7, 2022 by acrashb

[Battlefront.com]

Trying to catch up after a few days offline.  I really don't think I want to catch up on any more tax and natural gas production discussions, so I'm hoping that's run its course

My take on the last 20 pages or so is that nothing overly dramatic has happened at the front.  Kherson continues to go well, with the northeastern salient having to withdraw as we figured they would (Russians do not want to die in place).  But no details yet on how that went.

Things are still evolving in the Lyman-Svatove line, but we're either waiting for Ukraine to do a short regroup and push before weather turns too bad or they are going to consolidate and leave the pushing to January.

The discussion about various groups within the Kremlin more openly jockeying for position is interesting!  But still nothing much new so far, just movement inline with some of the predictions we've made.

All good stuff

Steve

[sross112]

1 hour ago, Vanir Ausf B said:

2.9 killed/wounded ratio.

Interesting that refuseniks outnumber casualties, by a lot.

So with the new laws/decrees or such in Russia that will no longer allow service members to refuse to serve that number should start translating into POWs. Or at least a certain percentage of it probably will. Another chunk will be deserters and the remaining number will be very poor soldiers. If that is translated across the rest of the RA units it is at least 40% basically ineffective/unreliable personnel prior to contact. Throw in the new round of mobiks and probably a bunch of conscripts now that Russian thinks the occupied oblasts are Russian soil and I just can't see how the RA survives. They sucked as a pretty much all volunteer force so going forward it ought to be a real flustercluck.