How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Zeleban]

Another development of the Russian military industry. Helmet KOLPAK-2. In fact, this is a steel helmet from the Second World War SSH-40, which was covered with fabric.

[Kraft]

16 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

Just when ya think the world is filled w idiots, someone puts together something of utter brilliance, like this.  Thanks for sharing, you restored my faith in humanity.

You might enjoy this album of 20 of these fine creations:

The Tapestry Tales of Muscovite's March and the Daring Defense

https://www.reddit.com/gallery/xx4kvt

Edited October 7, 2022 by Kraft

[NamEndedAllen]

8 hours ago, kevinkin said:

https://news.yahoo.com/russians-terrified-putin-bunker-mentality-080334874.html

Putin’s mentality increasingly resembles an eerie channeling of That Adolf.  Fantasy offensives with a crumbling army, living in a bunker, genocidal slanders and oversight of many war crimes. Most  deeply concerning - it’s a nuclear war bunker. 

[Taranis]

"Ukrainian soldiers atop a Ukrainian tank, near Borova, Friday, October 7, 2022. FRANCISCO SECO / AP"
* T-80BV


"Ukrainian soldiers, outside Svyatogirsk, October 7, 2022. ANATOLII STEPANOV / AFP"

[poesel]

1 hour ago, dan/california said:

Since France has sent less than fifty of them it is a case study in the way a lot of NATO militaries just running MUCH too lean on equipment and spares. Building production lines that can build five of something in a year isn't terribly wise.

Depends. If the most (by far) common reason for retirement for a piece of equipment is 'old age' (at least for European armies in the last 70 or so years), then a capacity of 'a few a year' is more than enough to replace stuff lost to accidents.

OTOH if you build an assembly line that can do 100s or 1000s a year, run it for a month and then mothball it - your taxpayers will kill you.

[Haiduk]

There is confirmation UKR troops liberated Makiivka village in Luhansk oblast on the crossroads Svatove -Terny -Yampli' - Lyman and Makkivka - Starobilsk (this was claimed two days ago, but with unclear footage). Russian on LostArmour write that recently in this willage HQ of 144th MRD "had a mess" (probably it was hit), when in was moved there to control defensive operaration and this caused additional chaos during withdrawal

[akd]

Brilliant!

[Taranis]

1 hour ago, danfrodo said:

YAY for France for sending more aid. 

On subject of ceasars -- what does he mean by this quote above?  Does he mean the gun systems require more training than the UKR soldiers currently have?

Maybe it's the translation that isn't very accurate. What he means is like most of our European armies (I am thinking of Germany), we are limited in the assistance we can provide to Ukraine. Our armies have endured years of economic restraint and need to expand rapidly. A CAESAR takes a long time to manufacture and that the manpower of the French army corresponds to precise objectives. Therefore, the fact of giving CAESARs to Ukraine penalizes our army which would be less able to face any potential attack or be less able to fulfill possible future missions. (as part of a possible NATO commitment for example)

[Haiduk]

@sburke

Lt.colonel Vladimir Bembeyev, unit and duty unknown. He was officer of FSB Border Guard Service. Killed on 1st October together with other Border guard officer captain Aleksey Kornilov. Both served in Rostov oblast.  

 

[Beleg85]

4 hours ago, danfrodo said:

Thanks for sharing these guys, Beleg, they are hilarious.  Some very smart humor.  

And I am glad to see my 2nd favorite ancient history expert is well and back on the forum again.  (sorry, my #1 ancient historian is neighbor here, town full of professors.  He keeps scolding me for reading greek/roman historical fiction when I haven't finished Herodotus or Plutarch)

But the comedy bit above does really hit a lot of very accurate points.  The maps are a good analogy to how Putin is changing the story of this war continuously, trying to find new justifications & moving the goalposts.  And the last bit is a good analogy about how this war is going to cost everyone in russia, whether it's through soldiers at the front or living in an economy well on its way back to 1970.

Most obliged, sir. We are dying breed in this brutal postmodern world. Herodotus and Plutarch are ok, but if you want something really entertaining I suggest Characters by Theophrastus. 2300 years passed but still comedy gold, Monty Python- style.

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

Yes, we have (though there are several versions of MRE and some w/o heaters), but Ukrainains are always Ukrainans - if situation allows to cook, soldiers prefer to eat "fresh home meal".  Also civil volunteers supply troops with home-made borshch in cans, varenyky and other food, which are cooking other volunteers. This is not big part of food supply, but soldiers have access to different sources of food, including "shtat" field kitchens

In this context, it is worth to look at video of this guy. He is True Bob Ross of military food:

He probably wanted to cheer up Ukrainians on the eve of invasion, so made this lengthly video highly praising its new (post-2014) military food. Beware, this channel is strangly addictive. It will probbaly open another 20-page discussion about MRE-s. But still better than discussing winter socks.

Edited October 7, 2022 by Beleg85

[Taranis]

11 minutes ago, akd said:

Brilliant!

In French, it would have looked good with something fun to do by saying "Embrasser" (kissing), "la Verge" (male genitalia). It would be a play on words with "la Vierge" (Virgin Mary).

[dan/california]

Too good to check. 

 

[Probus]

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

Yes, all coorect. Our soldier very angry on Russian and swears it in each word (English translation doesn't reflect all spectre of Russian filthy language  ), but anyway he says "we are not like you" and tried to free his leg.   

Thanks @Haiduk and @Grigb for the confirmation. 

[Haiduk]

New UKR units to Kherson offensive OOB:

Davydiv Brid - elements of 57th motorized infantry brigade and special purpose police battalion "Tsunami". I didn't hear about latter. I know only it from Odesa or Odesa oblast, where since 2014 was established special purpose police battalion "Shtorm"

Also interesting that usual place of tasks for 57th brigade was Donbas. This brigade fought hard since Day 1 and suffered there big losses.

 

Edited October 7, 2022 by Haiduk

[NamEndedAllen]

8 hours ago, Doc844 said:

I'm way behind on this thread again, work can suck at times, only on page 1485, but wanted to chip my 2 pence worth in on nukes and use of.  One thing to remember is that as people get older they move more away from the 'me' to their kids but even more importantly their grandkids.  They are their future, our future and humans are hardwired to that as part of the perpetuation of the species.  So yes you may have the man at the top, ala, Mr Putlin who may or may not give a ****, all is lost I'm gonna go the way of Hitler and take everyone with me.  But I can guarentee that most under him and even more so those who are further away from the levers of power do not agree and want a future for their families and relatives.  I strongly believe that if Putlin decides to drop a nuke there is a very high probability, even inevitability that someone will vacate his brain from his skull.

 

If I recall correctly what I stated above was one of the main reasons why Kruschev de-escalated and brought the world back from the brink.  Not saying that this position should be used as a hail Mary plan but I could see that being the way it would pan out.

  Putlin -  "**** the west, they ruined my glorious plan, **** Ukraine they didnt roll over and die, press the red button".  Loud bang and the next thing he sees is Lucifer standing with a big grin saying welcome.

This is certainly a more desirable outcome than…nukes. And it is the storyline we tell a lot when needing to replace the previous one, that Putin is too rational to risk blowing up various levels of his own country’s future and the world’s as well. It’s what we think we would do if we ourselves had the choice at the critical moment, in our own Western countries. But it relies entirely on hope as a war strategy. Here in the peanut gallery, we don’t have perfect knowledge of the protections and mindsets involved in protecting Putin. The former KGB guy.

In the Cuban Missile Crisis, we now know that just one rational and determined man stopped the besieged depth charged Fox Trot’s Captain from launching his “special weapon” nuclear war head torpedo at the USN, as per his orders.  Another ranking officer in the three sub flotilla was also aboard and blocked the captain’s given order at the critical moment. Talked the rattled captain down. And WWIII was averted. One guy. Could have not been there. Boom…

 

Question: do we know whether any of the Russian subs have nuclear-armed cruise, not ballistic  missiles that could be used in lieu of a land or air launch?

[womble]

45 minutes ago, poesel said:

Depends. If the most (by far) common reason for retirement for a piece of equipment is 'old age' (at least for European armies in the last 70 or so years), then a capacity of 'a few a year' is more than enough to replace stuff lost to accidents.

OTOH if you build an assembly line that can do 100s or 1000s a year, run it for a month and then mothball it - your taxpayers will kill you.

On top of this, you have to maintain the skills of the people operating the production line. That is a non-trivial ask. You can't keep a full crew for a "wartime production" line sitting there getting thumb-RSI when you only need a couple a year. And getting folk who've never built a thing before up to speed on a modern production line can also be problematic. We started producing an upgrade to one of our old models at the start of August, and the line still isn't above 2/3 velocity. Every day seems to upchuck a new problem. CESAR is significantly more complicated than what I help build.

It's one reasons countries like to have a thriving arms export business. With the whole world to sell to, they can keep their tank-founders and helmet-dishers gainfully employed and in practice for when the balloon goes up and your own army needs to expand/replace significant losses quickly.

[Beleg85]

He who invented these cartoons deserves Nobel prize, forget guys from click chemistry.

Edited October 7, 2022 by Beleg85

[sburke]

47 minutes ago, Taranis said:

Maybe it's the translation that isn't very accurate. What he means is like most of our European armies (I am thinking of Germany), we are limited in the assistance we can provide to Ukraine. Our armies have endured years of economic restraint and need to expand rapidly. A CAESAR takes a long time to manufacture and that the manpower of the French army corresponds to precise objectives. Therefore, the fact of giving CAESARs to Ukraine penalizes our army which would be less able to face any potential attack or be less able to fulfill possible future missions. (as part of a possible NATO commitment for example)

yep that is the big concern for France...someone is going to attack.  I've heard rumblings from Luxembourg.  They are violently aggressive. 

[NamEndedAllen]

6 hours ago, Der Zeitgeist said:

Since everyone seems to be going crazy about nukes these days, this article by Timothy Snyder about how the war might actually end is especially worth reading:

https://snyder.substack.com/p/how-does-the-russo-ukrainian-war

TLDR: It's probably not by nuclear war, but by a gradual shift in Russian perceptions about the war led both by setbacks on the battlefield and political crisis at home.

Snyder is a smart guy. And this is certainly a well written projection combining several of the many scenarios explored in these 1,500+ pages. But he makes a ton of assumptions, “if this, then that…and if that, then this other, and if that other, then this…”  becomes a gradual relatively smooth winding up of the war. Nice!

But nations’ crises also result in sudden, abrupt radical change. In evolution this is called “punctuated equilibrium.” In the moment of the crisis, it is certainly difficult to foresee the ultimate outcome.  
 

 

[FancyCat]

5 hours ago, acrashb said:

 

That's so wrong on so many levels.  Let's take a high-level look.  Until recently, the US was (for the first time in a long time) energy self-sufficient and had the option to improve energy flows from its friendly, democratic neighbour - Canada.

Now, the US faces shortages that have driven up energy costs, disproportionally impacting the poor; is going to reduce sanctions on a brutal autocracy and strategic competitor - Venezuela - to reduce the cost of energy; has been gravely depleting strategic reserves to reduce the pump cost; is considering blocking off-shore drilling; and so is once again at the mercy of OPEC.

Sounds kind of like - not an exact parallel - Germany, and we all know where that has led.  

Love fossil fuels, hate them, either way they are necessary in the mid term, and no solution that includes confiscation of corporations and/or their assets - that's what nationalization means - to put them in the hands of disinterested government controllers is going to improve things.  If anyone think nationalization works, the most recent blindingly obvious counter-example is ... Venezuela, which is now a living hell.

 

And yet, President Biden just mooted exactly that: https://nationalpost.com/news/biden-nuclear-armageddon-risk-highest-since-62-crisis

I don't know if it's strategic messaging or just a gaffe.

 

One, I recall a ton of complaints about the restriction of drilling permits by the Biden administration but it turns out that oil and gas companies had tons of existing permits without any use of the land.

If your gonna complain about drilling permits being needed for production, use up the existing permits you already have and haven't done anything with.

I mean oil and gas has its up and down markets like all commodities, that's why OPEC exists, it's a cartel to prevent market competition.

So a American oil and gas company isn't just competing domestically, the price of oil and gas is dependent on worldwide factors, like potential recession lowering demand (which I could strongly see OPEC's actions to be in response to global decline in demand to keep the price steady, not just supporting Russia), if I were them, why take on more expenses like drilling, rather than coast on existing production and earn some money with a bolstered oil price due to OPEC? If I drill, I might well just lower the price and lose out.

As for the strategic reserve, I dunno, a conflict where Russia is using every tool including energy to inflict damage on the west sounds like a great time to deplete the reserve.

https://www.poynter.org/fact-checking/2022/biden-9000-unused-oil-drill-permits/

As for nationalization, I have no opinion on it, I just like noting that state owned companies literally take marching orders from their governments, Biden can't order companies to drill. It would be just as bad as nationalization for Biden to order the producers to do so disregarding their need to make profit, and historically only due to instances like war or other conflicts. (Maybe we can say so now due to Russian conflict but I don't think most people will share that sentiment just yet)

And the U.S is still energy sufficient but again, global market, I don't blame the companies for seeking profit, but I just find it silly people think Biden controls the market like a lever. The Saudi heir apparent has a more visible lever than Biden by far.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/rrapier/2022/03/08/surprise-the-us-is-still-energy-independent/

 

[Beleg85]

400 years and they still remember False Dmitry?...Jesus, Putin's propaganda movies like "1610" apparently left some marks.

[Jiggathebauce]

2 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

400 years and they still remember False Dmitry?...Jesus, Putin's propaganda movies like "1610" apparently left some marks.

What a bunch of nerds. LOL

[NamEndedAllen]

5 hours ago, akd said:

Government is not currently restraining short-term oil production in the U.S.

Terrible thing to even think to suggest, but maybe possibly we back in the cheap seats might have to actually suffer a bit too. And pay higher prices. War is expensive in many ways. Ukraine is paying in lives and entire cities.

[Beleg85]

1 minute ago, Jiggathebauce said:

What a bunch of nerds. LOL

We discussed 300 pages ago about events of Great Smuta and its mark on collective Russian psyche; or rather we should say on Kremlin's ideology of sacred tsarist power. Unfortunatelly, we probably underappreciated desolation made by popculture of Putin's era in the mind of average Russian nationalist- normally events from XVII cent. would long be forgotten, but Putin's version of history needs as much "cannibalic" external powers invading Mother Russia as it can only find.

On the other side, it's kind of flattering those two Polish mercanary brigades scarred them so much. Almost like they would remember their beating at Klushino:  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Klushino

(sorry for historical paralels, just couldn't resist).

[NamEndedAllen]

5 hours ago, Twisk said:

Yes it looks that much of the frontline is sparsely populated. Much less combat density than in your average combat mission. I also don't see much evidence of Russian using their ATGM and i do not know if this is because of lack of supply or lack of video.

But if enemy primary counter is artillery fire then even light armor will be good.

 

Wouldn't U.S. industry need to produce enough for both internal consumption and external consumption becuase of the free market? U.S. field production for June (all types) is 533,000 (in thousands of barrels) but then exports 300,000.  February U.S. exports 50,000 fewer barrels (all types).

I think this show problem possible due to Russian violence in Ukraine as markets become unstable and must cope with high intensity war. Others have said but providing Ukraine with best means to end war seems like best way to return markets to stability. Issue will become worse over winter so it is important that Ukraine has battlefield success to show world.

Some context. The USA is already the largest oil producer in the world. Even with compromises to avoid the worst damages that occur. And we cannot keep up with the demand from other countries besides our own. This does not include or reference NATURAL GAS PRODUCTION. USA also Numero Uno. See  at bottom. Using up even more of what USA has remaining in the ground plays into OPEC (and Russia?) hands. In grander strategy, USA needs to find multi pronged means to address demand. While still able to be largest energy producer.
Top 10 Oil-Producing Countries (barrels per day):

Country	Monthly Production	Reference Month
United States	11,567,000	12/2021
Russia	10,503,000	11/2021
Saudi Arabia	10,225,000	02/2022
Canada	4,656,000	11/2021
Iraq	4,260,000	02/2022
China	3,969,000	11/2021
United Arab Emirates	2,954,000	02/2022
Brazil	2,852,000	11/2021
Kuwait	2,610,000	02/2022
Iran	2,546,000	02/2022

Top 10 Countries that Produce the Most Natural Gas (Cubic Meters, 2020):

1. United States — 914.6 billion
2. Russia — 638.5 billion
3. Iran — 250.8 billion
4. China — 194 billion
5. Qatar — 171.3 billion
6. Canada — 165.2 billion
7. Australia — 142.5 billion
8. Saudi Arabia — 112.1 billion
9. Norway — 111.5 billion
10. Algeria — 81.5 billion

Top 10 Countries that Consume the Most Natural Gas (Cubic Meters, 2020):

1. United States — 832 billion
2. Russia — 411.1 billion
3. China — 330.6 billion
4. Iran — 233.1 billion
5. Canada — 112.6 billion
6. Saudi Arabia — 112.1 billion
7. Japan — 104.4 billion
8. Germany — 86.5 billion
9. Mexico — 86.3 billion