NamEndedAllen

Important to keep in mind the role of the third leg of the dynamic. The Joker here is the odd polarity reversal from the Nixon-China-Soviet triangle, where Nixon undercut the Soviets by opening up to China. Today, we have Trump-Russia-China where Trump embraces Putin and the Russian criminal state model, while at least verbally jumping all over China in his usual mouthy manner. The former case seemed rather a brilliant coup. It favorably altered the Cold War dynamic for Team USA. If Trump returns to the Presidency, the current case seems at best ominous.

A prelude to some sort of pause in the war? Especially as Putin could conceivably make the case that they, the Russian army, are currently “winning”, on the march, etc. Yes, quite a long stretch, but so much of this terrible war had been bizarre. Adding to this extreme speculation, the time frame for such a series of moves towards a cessation of hostilities lies within the outcome of the USA’s fraught Presidential election. Where once upon a time we did see an “October Surprise”. Rather a rickety conspiracy-type speculation, but I got tired of reading the massive number of recent opinions about a Ukrainian kid in Canada….

Thanks for the background. So, does this add another war crime to the Russian list? Or are the reports insufficient for further legal investigation?

No! It’s THE OIL CANS!

Steve, apologies. I wasn’t clear enough at the top to say the connection in my opinion is the impact on Ukraine’s hard-pressed airdefenses. Shortages are already an issue of course, and the heavy expenditures in both the Houti/USN engagements and now this much larger sequence represent a significant expenditure of missiles in the region. Patriot launchers and missiles are in short supply in Ukraine and I doubt this event will make expanding Ukraine’s supply any easier. I hope I am wrong, and this proves to be a case of (twisted?) honor restored and the situation simmers down a bit.

Mark Hertling CNN talking about the potential for a well-coordinated attack stretching the stocks of ABMs to take out the missile attack, then followed by the drone attack soon after, making that effort more difficult. His concern is whether other bad actors like Hamas and the Hutis and Hezbollah (?) also launching attacks timed to add to and try to overwhelm Israeli air defenses. USA naval assets are likely to augment those air defenses. Realizing that this may be off topic, I am thinking that the need to restock ALL combatant nations is ramping up the free world’s scarce resource of all the various missiles necessary for air defenses. Ukraine of course already facing a daily drain on its stocks. edit - would seem highly likely that a ton of money could be made investing in the several companies that produce the various components of these missiles.

Waiting for the first ballistic missile strikes and the wave of 100 drones launched earlier at Israel, from Iran. Missiles announced moments ago, after this link. https://www.cnn.com/middleeast/live-news/israel-hamas-war-gaza-news-04-13-24/index.html

House Democrats are continuing to suggest they’ll have Speaker Johnson’s back if he will put a vote on aid to Ukraine on the Floor. The bill has already been passed by the Senate. “The head of the House Democratic Caucus suggested Wednesday that Democratic lawmakers stand ready to rescue Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) from a potential GOP coup — if he ushers Ukraine aid through the lower chamber and on to President Biden’s desk. Rep. Pete Aguilar (D-Calif.) stopped short of saying he would vote personally to save Johnson from a motion to vacate resolution. But echoing an earlier message from House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.), Aguilar noted a number of Democrats are already on record saying they’d help keep Johnson in power if he stages a vote on the Ukraine package that passed through the Senate in February. That willingness by Democrats to cross the aisle, Aguilar suggested, should be enough to overcome the number of Republicans who might try to topple Johnson. “The Speaker needs to put that bill on the floor,” Aguilar said during a press briefing in the Capitol. “You have also heard me say, you have also heard Leader Jeffries say — and he has pointed out that it was an observation, not a declaration — that we feel that if the Speaker does the right thing that he is in a good position. “But look, we’ve got to do the right thing. We’ve got to pass these bills. We’ve got to have some sanity under this dome. And that means putting bills on the floor that have 300 votes.” “ https://thehill.com/homenews/house/4585578-aguilar-johnson-speaker-ukraine/

Not really in play: Several Dems, including Jamie Rankin, and several others have publicly pledged to support Johnson and NOT vote for their own Jeffries. This is extraordinary only in these times when Party and self interest practically always “trump” the Oath, the Constitution and the best interests of the USA https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-house-democrats-offer-protect-republican-johnson-ukraine-aid-2024-03-22/ Similar but more general declarations from moderate Democrats go back to January of this year.

Facing death has a way of changing a person.

Sometimes these events may be only the tip of the iceberg. We don’t know whether or not things in a personal life have piled up or exploded. One contributing factor can be enormous loss and grief. And/Or substance abuse stemming from other problems. Or just bad acid! And a person turns to the familiar confines of this forum. What follows is not much more than a stream of consciousness series of rants. Regardless, it’s pretty clear after the first few posts that he isn’t in Kansas any longer. I may be wrong, but feeding these sorts of posts after that never seems to serve either the forum or the person in whatever form of distress or bad humor. Instead, we have to plough through a heap of turgid nonsense for pages. Perhaps wiser use of everyone’s time and lives to cut them loose from further replies after the obvious is clear.

Any evidence that sfhand and MTG are NOT the same person?

This!

Simply - because you were sure it would be too difficult for Putin/FSB to carry out this as a false flag. Pretty clear that yes, he was able to do such a thing, possibly multiple times in the past. Period. A factual reference. Not claimed as evidence of guilt but clearly as evidence that such acts are in his modus operandi, his experience and his ruthlessness. That is all. BTW, our understanding of his actions and rationales is obviously incomplete and speculative.

Yes, the young audience may well be apathetic at best? Pretty sure Putin cares very little for young Moscow partying liberals and their rock band(s). Expendables. Like the mobiks. Doesn’t prove any guilt of Putin, FSB only that those attacked are of lttle consequence emotionally and politically to his government. Yet their violent deaths certainly serve the purpose of propping up increased “security” laws and calls for enlarging the security forces. So there are upsides for the government’s social controls. Even if they had nothing to do with the attack.