How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[chuckdyke]

IDown right ridiculous what passes as a broadcast. Plenty of Lend Lease from WW2 here. lol

Edited October 7, 2022 by chuckdyke

[Der Zeitgeist]

1 hour ago, chuckdyke said:

A good analysis by a German colonel. The translator in settings does a decent job. Title Ukraine offensive operations, Russia under pressure.  

 

I'm always amazed about how well the Google AI translation seems to handle this typical "Bundeswehr speech". I mean, for normal people, this kind of talk with its weird expressions and sentence structure is barely comprehensible in German. 

[chuckdyke]

5 minutes ago, Der Zeitgeist said:

for normal people, this kind of talk with its weird expressions and sentence structure is barely comprehensible in German.

Oh I thought it was me. I am fairly conversational in German but at times I must at least switch on the German Subtitles. Thank you, I can sleep more easily tonight. 

[kevinkin]

https://news.yahoo.com/russians-terrified-putin-bunker-mentality-080334874.html

[Grigb]

RU annotated map of Railroad communications at North

Quote

Red Line - front until September 7
Yellow line - the front on October 5 (approximate)

Railway infrastructure:
1 - Powerful electric. Balashovsky course (Samara [RU] - Penza [RU] - Valuyki [RU] - Kupyansk - Kharkiv), which was controlled until September 15 by the Russian army and was used to supply the entire group
2 - Near rockade [along frontline] road - Debaltseve - Popasnaya - Svatovo - Kupyansk-Uzl., now under the fire of the AFU
3 - Distant rockade road - Lugansk - Starobilsk - Valuiki. In the operational rear so far
4 - Moscow - Rostov - Kavkaz Highway/Crimea

Circles mark the key stations on the rockades: Svatovo and Starobilsk.
A thick line is a two-track, a thin line is a single-track. Diesel locomotive lines are marked in gray.

 

As you can see RL communication of RU is already screwed at North but once UKR reaches the eastern border and cuts major RL road N4, whole RU grouping in UKR is in world of heart hurt.

Edited October 7, 2022 by Grigb
spelling:(

[Grigb]

RU reports new UKR push at Dudchani right now.

[Huba]

1 minute ago, Grigb said:

RU annotated map of Railroad communications at North

 

As you can see RL communication of RU is already screwed at North but once UKR reaches the eastern border and cuts major RL road N4, whole RU grouping in UKR is in world of heart.

Yup, IMO it's like this since the fall of Kupyansk, more or less. Line through Starobilsk has enough bridges/ overpasses to make it's use problematic already (not to mention it is a single track).
Apart from the line nr4, after 2014 Russians built a bypass further to the east, that does not cross UA territory, but it's close enough to be hit with Excaliburs/ attacked by DRGs.
After that, it's all the way around through Volgograd.

[Grigb]

On political-separatist front from Kavkaz

Quote

Both federal and regional elites have been pulled out of anabiosis ("we pretend that nothing is happening") and are involved in both mobilization and political games around the war. Not just by talking anymore. The regions are forced to deal with their mobiks, lobby for the recall of unsuitable ones, the allocation of equipment and time for training. The population has been awakened and taken from the sofas by mobilization – they [and their actions] need to be considered [by everyone else].

Representatives of the North Caucasus at various venues (in Ukraine, Turkey, Europe and the USA) are intensively discussing the future of the region. According to my information, there are agreements between Chechens, Dagestanis and Circassians on joint political and military-political projects, and Caucasian groups within the AFU and the Foreign Legion in Ukraine are beginning to take shape politically.

 

[Grigb]

UKR probing Svatove

 

[Doc844]

I'm way behind on this thread again, work can suck at times, only on page 1485, but wanted to chip my 2 pence worth in on nukes and use of.  One thing to remember is that as people get older they move more away from the 'me' to their kids but even more importantly their grandkids.  They are their future, our future and humans are hardwired to that as part of the perpetuation of the species.  So yes you may have the man at the top, ala, Mr Putlin who may or may not give a ****, all is lost I'm gonna go the way of Hitler and take everyone with me.  But I can guarentee that most under him and even more so those who are further away from the levers of power do not agree and want a future for their families and relatives.  I strongly believe that if Putlin decides to drop a nuke there is a very high probability, even inevitability that someone will vacate his brain from his skull.

 

If I recall correctly what I stated above was one of the main reasons why Kruschev de-escalated and brought the world back from the brink.  Not saying that this position should be used as a hail Mary plan but I could see that being the way it would pan out.

  Putlin -  "**** the west, they ruined my glorious plan, **** Ukraine they didnt roll over and die, press the red button".  Loud bang and the next thing he sees is Lucifer standing with a big grin saying welcome.

[Grigb]

RU Nats are noticing RU public mood has changed

Quote

The impression is the turbo-patriotic frenzy was replaced by some strange feeling of caution and decadence. And both in strict isolation from reality...

 

 

[Beleg85]

Girkin slowly turning into stand-uper. Perhaps finally we have a undisputed proof that "Diablo" type games actually have negative impact on player's psyche:

Also, Pushilin awarding Ramzan Kadyrov with a medal. Given how tense were relations between Chechens and locals from Donbas one can assume LDPR "authorities" try to position themselves closer to "hawks" in slowly emerging new power system.

 

Edited October 7, 2022 by Beleg85

[Grigb]

DPR fighter reports about RU army personnel issues:

• Moto Rifle unit - 2,200 men
• Participates in SMO from the beginning. Actively took part in the offensive at Northeast
• Killed by September - around 90
• Wounded by September - around 260
• Total personnel by September - 900
• [Refuseniks - 950]
• Most affected - officers. They have soldiers but no officers
• Currently they are training distinguished privates and sergeants to give them lieutenant straps and fill vacant command positions

[Grigb]

7 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Also, Pushilin awarding Ramzan Kadyrov with a medal. Given how tense were relations between Chechens and locals from Donbas one can assume LDPR "authorities" try to position themselves closer to "hawks" in slowly emerging new power system.

 

Yes, Prigozhin-Kadyrov hardline block is wining currently. Internally most numerous RU centrist public hopes some sort of victory or at least draw will help them avoid any responsibility for RU crimes. That further fuels hardline block popularity.  

[Grossman]

Mainstream media. BBC reports

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-63160354

 

[LongLeftFlank]

2 hours ago, Grigb said:

once UKR reaches the eastern border and cuts major RL road N4, whole RU grouping in UKR is in world of heart.

1.  Minor amendment bro: it's the *UA* who is in a world of Heart (covered here, with full Fire for Effect, by a fantastic Ukrainian band)

If the real thing don't do the trick!

you better make up something quick!

You gonna burn, burn, burn, burn, burn to the wick!

2.  RU, on the other hand, for their sins, gets Hurt (one of those songs that sounds even more despondent in Russian)

(P.S. Strelkov wants his cat back)

(some maps to pore over while you listen)

Bakhmut topo.

 

 

Edited October 7, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[Probus]

The same tweet as before but translated. Can someone @Haiduk verify the translation?

Edited October 7, 2022 by Probus

[Grigb]

CIT summary on two mutinies incidents with mobilized (that train and Bryansk)

Quote

Volunteer summary on mobilization in the Russian Federation for October 5-6

The story of the so-called "riot of the mobilized" made a great [public] resonance. Initially, on October 5, a video appeared in which an unknown person, while in the tambour of the train, reads out information on a piece of paper that many people on the train are ill with acute respiratory diseases, and there is no medical support. Later, a video of the first ever "partial" mobilization strike (originally published by the telegram channel "Rybar") spread on the network. The video was shot against the background of a train near the village of Livenka, Belgorod region. In it, the servicemen say that there are about 500 of them, all with weapons, but they are not assigned to any of the units. The military complain that they have lived in "bestial conditions" for a week, eat what they buy for themselves, and the issued weapons are not assigned to them legally [felony]. Many of them are sick at the same time. The same mobilized wrote a statement with a request to conduct an official trial. Later, several more videos appeared on the network, filmed in the same place, and some in parallel with the first recording. At one of them, a military man who introduced himself as Artem Alekseevich Kovrizhnykh said that he was sent to the 1st Taman Division (in fact, the honorary name "Taman" was assigned to the 2nd Motorized Rifle Division, part of the 1st Tank Army), to the 1st tank battalion, 3rd motorized rifle company, and for six days he and the other mobilized had to live in trenches and dugouts that they dug themselves.

One of the videos shows the face of the author of the first video. As Radio Liberty journalist Mark Krutov writes, this is Sergey Surkov (pseudonym). Last week Surkov published another video – that the mobilized "1st Tank Regiment" (indeed there is such unit in Taman division) are being sent to Kherson without exercises. On Wednesday afternoon, Sergei Surkov wrote to an Agency [RIA Novosti] journalist that "there was no training, we have been living in bestial conditions for a week, near Belgorod, the village of Livenka." "Now we do not understand what we are, where we are and what we should do next," Surkov wrote.

The next day, additional videos were distributed, in which, in addition to a number of persons from the first series of videos, there is a local authorized police captain, as well as officers of the armed forces with the rank of captain and, according to the author of the video, a lieutenant colonel. Most of these two records are devoted to a soldier who is intoxicated, from whom his colleagues took away a weapon.

The authorities had to respond to this incident. An RIA Novosti source in the Western Military District reported that a unit of 299 people was sent to the training center at the Mulino training ground, the issued small arms were assigned [properly] to the personnel and accounted for, they have food and a medic in the team. And the head of the administration of the Belgorod governor, Ivan Budlov, said that "the responsible persons promptly dealt with the problem" and "the fighters are in safe hands."

Similar messages come from the Bryansk region. More than 100 Bryansk men refused to go to fight in Ukraine. The mobilized had to train in Klintsy for a month, and then go to guard the border of the Bryansk region. But they were taken to the Belgorod village Soloti. According to the interlocutor of the SOTA news, the men are going to be sent to recapture the Donetsk Lyman. Bryansk men want to return to the military unit in Klintsy, because they had little training for combat operations, and some "do not know how to shoot." Another description of this incident can be attributed to an audio recording that appeared on October 5, in which the girl reports similar information...

 

[Grigb]

11 minutes ago, Probus said:

The same tweet as before but translated. Can someone @Haiduk verify the translation?

They talk in RU. Yes, it is correct.

[FancyCat]

 

[Billy Ringo]

If Putin is looking for an exit strategy, would Prigozhin be the most likely suitor that could replace Putin and provide him with some level of confidence that he could live out the rest of his life in relative calm?  Access to money to live in luxury, not be extradited for war crimes and/or hung from a lamp post?  Or is someone else the most likely candidate?

Seems like internal Russian politics and positioning is really heating up, maybe Putin realizes the gig is up and he better start looking for a soft landing.

 

[Der Zeitgeist]

Since everyone seems to be going crazy about nukes these days, this article by Timothy Snyder about how the war might actually end is especially worth reading:

https://snyder.substack.com/p/how-does-the-russo-ukrainian-war

TLDR: It's probably not by nuclear war, but by a gradual shift in Russian perceptions about the war led both by setbacks on the battlefield and political crisis at home.

[Harmon Rabb]

30 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

 

Imagine becoming a POW because of some free to play game.

Never played World of Tanks but if it is anything like War Thunder they would have to pay me to play that game.

[Grigb]

6 minutes ago, Billy Ringo said:

If Putin is looking for an exit strategy, would Prigozhin be the most likely suitor that could replace Putin and provide him with some level of confidence that he could live out the rest of his life in relative calm?  Access to money to live in luxury, not be extradited for war crimes and/or hung from a lamp post?  Or is someone else the most likely candidate?

Yes, so far it looks like Prigozhin is the best bet for Putin. The other is candidate is Patrushev but publicly he is nobody and unlike Prigozhin he is a man of the System which is very unpopular now.

[LongLeftFlank]

1.  Night squad level tactical action, Level 4 in CM.  As usual, the jump cuts mean you have to watch a couple of times to figure out what's happening. But worth a look.

2. Mech column ambush at crossroads.  Again, annoying edits but still worth a couple of views.

3.  I hope to see these young people back in school, where they belong.  May they end this war soon, on their terms. 

 

 

Edited October 7, 2022 by LongLeftFlank