How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Grigb]

Small digest of RU Nats

• Looks like RU Nats  have sudden interest in Odessa (which is stated goal of new RU operation)
• Propagandists started to trash Krab specifically (looks like Krabs hit something really important)

Discussion regarding the effect of bridges hits on RU side

Quote

So, let's talk about bridges again.

The expected happened today, which we predicted in our previous post - after the shelling of the Antonovsky Bridge, the AFU attacked other possible crossings over the Dnieper: the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power station and the Daryevsky Bridge over the river. Ingulets. Why is this so important?

In case of critical damage to the Antonovsky Bridge, supply columns will have to be driven through the Kakhovskaya HPP. Then the distance of ~60 km from the fork on the M-17 Kherson - Dzhankoy highway to the center of Kherson, which the cargo column needs to overcome, will turn into ~120 km. But this is not the most important thing.

In order to get to Kherson through the Kakhovskaya HPP, the column will need to overcome another river - Ingulets, through which the Daryevsky Bridge leads, also shelled today. In case of critical damage to this bridge, the RU AF will have to establish pontoon crossings over the Dnieper and Ingulets, which the AFU will be even easier to destroy due to the weakness of their surface in comparison with capital bridges.

The problem needs to be solved.

 

[The_Capt]

15 minutes ago, Letter from Prague said:

 

Capt, where can I learn more about this? Could you point me to something? I'm a corporate IT strategy dude and I'm sure it would make me way better at my job  

This is all pretty much stuff I have built up over years.  It is a surface level framework really, each one of those components has a lot to unpack.  I am sure there is stuff out there on it.  I built it on professional observations and looking at history over the years; most of them based on the mistakes we made at the institutional level and  in places like Afghanistan - we sought positive decision in a place built on negative/null ones.

Heh, well I guess it gives me something to do when I finally do retire.

[danfrodo]

I continue to be astounded at how incredibly stupid RU has been on the international propaganda.  The correct way to run this war is to say this is an internal conflict since Ukraine is part of Russia.  Repeat it over and over and over and over.  Continually say how RU is not a threat to anyone.  continue to say how RU can be trusted in business dealings by keeping gas flowing. 

Instead Putin has taught us that he is a rabid dog that will never stop trying to take more territory and undermine democracies.  After Ukraine, they have stated they will conquer Poland, the Baltics, they will make Finland and Sweden pay for joining NATO, along w nuking the UK.

It's really just incredibly stupid.  The western pro-RU factions, which should be working to undermine the war effort (Tucker Carlson, et al), don't have a leg to stand on once RU starts talking about invading and nuking all of the EU.

[Beleg85]

1 hour ago, panzermartin said:

The rules of this western dominated world are set by the most powerful. Russia is not there among them, it's actually the underdog. Their friends are Iran and North Korea ffs. Underdogs don't set the rules and don't have the initiative that's why I don't agree with the thought that Russia had some grande world domination plan apart from securing its national interests NEXT to its borders and in mostly russian dominated areas. We ll see how the energy powerplay will unfold, I think it's their only serious leverage, as their military is so backwards as you all agree. 

I truly admire such zen mind disconnected from morallity, knowing what we know at this stage of the war. The problem with Machiavellian wannabies is that they suddenly gets very uneasy when actually confronted with reality. Maershaimmer unexpected fall as alpha and omega of large part of security establishment is a good example of that.

Yeah, Russia doesn't have a world domination plan. Just reliving USSR, turning ca. 160 mln people into its subjects/tributaries/"neutrals", facing off several statehoods from face of the earth (Ukraine, Moldova, Belarus, Balts if possible), turning Baltic Sea back into contested lake, braking all written pacts from last 30 years, maybe even doing small Ribberntropp-Molotov again, etc...just normal realization of somebody's national interests, business as usual (and mind you, all of these are communicates of top RUS officials).

Because let's remember West is also somewhat guilty...ehh, what was it...Palestine? Mate, you listen too much of Pope Francis.

Reality is:

1.Russia was among 3 top superpowers still until 2020's if only because of its size and energy connections. Putin hubris brought it down.

2.Russia borders are where Russia want them to be- everything is malleable and negotiable. That's why they genuinly convinced themselves they are on a crusade and defend themselves- no kidding, analyze their speeches or comments in the net.

3.So called "Russian world" is a modern concept devised by Putin's spin doctors. It's stiff as Breznev's walk and dead as Lenin's body. Still useful to misguide people around about their "rights" to intervene in other nation's well being. Russia has as much right to meddle into countries with Russian minority as III Reich had with "securing" sudettendeutch in Czechoslovakia.

4. Russian propaganda for western audience is actually very postmodern- it actively encourage our minds to believe in nothing and question everything. It perfectly know where weaknessess of open societies lies.

 

So, in the end- do not believe RU propaganda mate. And yes, Ukrainian/proNATO sources and accounts are also doing their own, but that proves literally nothing except that info wars are innate to any military effort.

 

PS. Oh, Russia just stated it has nothing to do with strike at Odessa port. You guys feel old yet ?

Edited July 23, 2022 by Beleg85

[Grigb]

6 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

I continue to be astounded at how incredibly stupid RU has been on the international propaganda. 

RU propaganda has the same issues as Armed Forces. Incompetence and stupidity (for loyalty reasons) + rampant corruption sprinkled with drugs (due to vodka is not elite enough for RU gov officials).

 

[akd]

This video gives a much better look into how forward observation with commercial quadcopters works on the front than the cut together clips we usually see:

Another massive secondary behind Russian lines:

 

Edited July 23, 2022 by akd

[Bulletpoint]

6 hours ago, poesel said:

Neither will Russia occupy Ukraine nor will Ukraine march into Moscow.
Anything but that is a stalemate.

I think it would count as a clear win for Ukraine if they gain back all the territory lost in the east.

[chrisl]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

Holy crap that is some precise work.

What Ukraine is doing to key bridges is some horror movie level messaging to Russia.

"Watch, while we draw dotted lines on all the bridges you need for your supplies or your retreat"

It's actually a kindness, because they'd probably let Russia retreat if they wanted to.  Watch out for when they start actually spelling things out with 155 mm craters.

[Zeleban]

2 hours ago, panzermartin said:

What dominant and shallow media you are talking about. You mean the ones have been bombarding us with the evil Russia thing since forever. The ones that were claiming that Russians sold their fuel for vodka or they are running out of missiles or tires since week 1. Or that Russia executed the heroic defenders on snake island. Because these make the 95% of mainstream World news. Yes, thats shallow. 

I mostly rely on info here, some Twitter accounts and surprisingly some pro russian places . Sometimes, among their blatant propaganda, they have more accurate info on what's going on the battlefield like in 2014. They quickly proved the 2000 russian encriclement that circulated here, was not true, as Haiduk confirmed. 

The rules of this western dominated world are set by the most powerful. Russia is not there among them, it's actually the underdog. Their friends are Iran and North Korea ffs. Underdogs don't set the rules and don't have the initiative that's why I don't agree with the thought that Russia had some grande world domination plan apart from securing its national interests NEXT to its borders and in mostly russian dominated areas. We ll see how the energy powerplay will unfold, I think it's their only serious leverage, as their military is so backwards as you all agree. 

 

Interesno, v chem natsionalʹnyy interes rossii ryadom s yeye granitsami? Kakovy tseli rossiyan? Kakim putem oni pytayut·sya ikh zashchishchatʹ? YA ne poseshchayu prorossiyskiye forumy i mne budet interesno, chto vy tam uslyshali na etot schet

I wonder what is the national interest of Russia near its borders? What are the goals of the Russians? How are they trying to protect them? I do not visit pro-Russian forums and I will be interested in what you heard there on this matter.

[Grigb]

Found interesting UKR Russian speaking youtube tank channel. @Battlefront.com

T-64BV, what the gunner sees from the inside.

Comment and answer:

• That is, he sees nothing, and triplex for him not to get bored and do not feel lonely
• Well, in fact, yes, only to look out through the sight. Otherwise, the side triplex, which is shown...well, you see for yourself.

Eyepiece and AZU [T-64]

This is about how the gunner can look into the eyepiece, and without taking his forehead off the forehead plate, look with his left eye at the AZU [turret direction indicator - video shows that this aspect of T-64 is superior to T-72B3]. 

Comment and Answer

• A question, is it possible to change the color filter of the sight? And why it was made yellow (or is it night mode), I'm not an expert in sights. The complaint is that it hurts the eyes to look at it, is there a mode without color correction?
• No, this is a basic filter. It's actually not as poisonous [painful] as the camera shows it.

The mechanic 's night observation device.

 

• 00:00 It is dark
• 00:03 Even the sky is not visible
• 00:07 Sasha [name] shine a flashlight ahead
• 00:09 It's dark out there
• 00:11 Turn it off
• 00:16 What a beauty
• 00:18 Shine a flashlight ahead
• 00:20 Cool
• 00:23 Content!

Comment and Answers

• And what is the generation of NVD? Is he in passive mode or is there option to turn on the IR backlight?
• It is in passive
• This is a TVN-4BUM from YUARPA.Thanks to them, for 4-5 years, almost all the mechanized vehicles of the BT [tanks] AFU received similar vision. NVD generation 3+/4

[Grigb]

9 minutes ago, chrisl said:

It's actually a kindness, because they'd probably let Russia retreat if they wanted to.  Watch out for when they start actually spelling things out with 155 mm craters.

I would say it is kindness toward civilians. As i understand, there is significant civilian traffic there as well (including food). 

[Aragorn2002]

6 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

I think it would count as a clear win for Ukraine if they gain back all the territory lost in the east.

I think few people realize how dangerous the situation is and how much worse it will get. Can anyone imagine Putin withdrawing from the occupied territory? I certainly can't. This is not Afghanistan where you can withdraw when it suits you and pretend that life goes on. This war will be the making or breaking of the Putin regime and he will do absolutely everything to survive. Even if Ukraine can turn the tide (which I personally doubt, but I'm not as smart as some people on this forum) the future looks very grim and dangerous. What will be the response of the West when a desperate Putin starts to use tactical nukes against an advancing Ukraine army or against Ukrainian cities? That's the question nobody dares to ask, but we better have an answer. I'm not implying we should go nuclear as well, but will we have the stomach to face such an escalation? I don't have the answers, but from which side you look at it, we're also in deep sh*t. Putin may be bluffing, but so are we. At least, that's how I see it. At the same time I think we can't back down and should go all in. Until the bitter end or until, as Frederic the Great put it, 'one of my cursed enemies gives up in desperation'. Which in his case were the Russians, if I'm not mistaken.

[Grigb]

TDA [Thermal smoke equipment] vs thermal imager.

• 00:12 As you can see, the TDA is not visible at all in the thermal imager. Absolutely.
• 00:18 All in smoke
• 00:19 And here everything is visible
• 00:23 There's the stern of the tank, here it is

Comments and Answers

• And how much exhaust gases are visible in the thermal imager? On a number of combat vehicles, the exhaust is located in front or on the side, for example, Merkava and Stryker. Does this prevent the use of a thermal imager?
• If you look at the stern, they interfere, but this is if the diffuser is not lowered down.

• It's a T-64, right?
• the first upgrades of 2017, judging by the field of view of the TVP [thermal imaging sight]. The later ones were slightly changed. Corrections were introduced for air temperatures, charge, barrel wear. The rangefinder scales and the choice of the type of shot were changed.

[Haiduk]

20 minutes ago, Grigb said:

Found interesting UKR Russian speaking youtube tank channel. @Battlefront.com

T-64BV, what the gunner sees from the inside.

Comment and answer:

• That is, he sees nothing, and triplex for him not to get bored and do not feel lonely
• Well, in fact, yes, only to look out through the sight. Otherwise, the side triplex, which is shown...well, you see for yourself.

Eyepiece and AZU [T-64]

This is about how the gunner can look into the eyepiece, and without taking his forehead off the forehead plate, look with his left eye at the AZU [turret direction indicator - video shows that this aspect of T-64 is superior to T-72B3]. 

Comment and Answer

• A question, is it possible to change the color filter of the sight? And why it was made yellow (or is it night mode), I'm not an expert in sights. The complaint is that it hurts the eyes to look at it, is there a mode without color correction?
• No, this is a basic filter. It's actually not as poisonous [painful] as the camera shows it.

The mechanic 's night observation device.

 

• 00:00 It is dark
• 00:03 Even the sky is not visible
• 00:07 Sasha [name] shine a flashlight ahead
• 00:09 It's dark out there
• 00:11 Turn it off
• 00:16 What a beauty
• 00:18 Shine a flashlight ahead
• 00:20 Cool
• 00:23 Content!

Comment and Answers

• And what is the generation of NVD? Is he in passive mode or is there option to turn on the IR backlight?
• It is in passive
• This is a TVN-4BUM from YUARPA.Thanks to them, for 4-5 years, almost all the mechanized vehicles of the BT [tanks] AFU received similar vision. NVD generation 3+/4

Yes, I posted some videos from this channel several months ago, thanks that you  reminded, there are some new videos appeared

Edited July 23, 2022 by Haiduk

[The_MonkeyKing]

3 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

I think few people realize how dangerous the situation is and how much worse it will get. Can anyone imagine Putin withdrawing from the occupied territory? I certainly can't. This is not Afghanistan where you can withdraw when it suits you and pretend that life goes on. This war will be the making or breaking of the Putin regime and he will do absolutely everything to survive. Even if Ukraine can turn the tide (which I personally doubt, but I'm not as smart as some people on this forum) the future looks very grim and dangerous. What will be the response of the West when a desperate Putin starts to use tactical nukes against an advancing Ukraine army or against Ukrainian cities? That's the question nobody dares to ask, but we better have an answer. I'm not implying we should go nuclear as well, but will we have the stomach to face such an escalation? I don't have the answers, but from which side you look at it, we're also in deep sh*t. Putin may be bluffing, but so are we. At least, that's how I see it. At the same time I think we can't back down and should go all in. Until the bitter end or until, as Frederic the Great put it, 'one of my cursed enemies gives up in desperation'. Which in his case were the Russians, if I'm not mistaken.

The west has the escalation dominance. We just don't realize it.

Only card Russia has is MAD(Mutually Assured Destruction). And they cannot play that card.

 

[Grigb]

3 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Yes, I posted some videos from this channel several months ago, thanks that you  reminded, there are some new videos appeared

Great! Have you posted T-64BV, long-range thermal imager?

[Letter from Prague]

12 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

I think few people realize how dangerous the situation is and how much worse it will get. Can anyone imagine Putin withdrawing from the occupied territory? I certainly can't. This is not Afghanistan where you can withdraw when it suits you and pretend that life goes on. This war will be the making or breaking of the Putin regime and he will do absolutely everything to survive. Even if Ukraine can turn the tide (which I personally doubt, but I'm not as smart as some people on this forum) the future looks very grim and dangerous. What will be the response of the West when a desperate Putin starts to use tactical nukes against an advancing Ukraine army or against Ukrainian cities? That's the question nobody dares to ask, but we better have an answer. I'm not implying we should go nuclear as well, but will we have the stomach to face such an escalation? I don't have the answers, but from which side you look at it, we're also in deep sh*t. Putin may be bluffing, but so are we. At least, that's how I see it. At the same time I think we can't back down and should go all in. Until the bitter end or until, as Frederic the Great put it, 'one of my cursed enemies gives up in desperation'. Which in his case were the Russians, if I'm not mistaken.

But Putin does not retreat. His soldierw do retreat once their situation gets to a place where thry see it as the only option - and when that happens Putin can choke to death with anger in his bunker but h's not goong to be able to do a thing about it.

So we better have answer to what escalations and further bull**** Putin will come with.

[Haiduk]

1 minute ago, Grigb said:

Great! Have you posted T-64BV, long-range thermal imager?

Even if I posted this, it was too long time ago ) I glad all ok with this guy and he continues to post own outstanding videos. I see he posted some videos about features of captured T-72B3 - translate it please here, if you have a time )  

[Letter from Prague]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

This is all pretty much stuff I have built up over years.  It is a surface level framework really, each one of those components has a lot to unpack.  I am sure there is stuff out there on it.  I built it on professional observations and looking at history over the years; most of them based on the mistakes we made at the institutional level and  in places like Afghanistan - we sought positive decision in a place built on negative/null ones.

Heh, well I guess it gives me something to do when I finally do retire.

So positive, negative and null decidion space is something you defined? I'm not succeeding googling it.

[Aragorn2002]

Just now, Letter from Prague said:

But Putin does not retreat. His soldierw do retreat once their situation gets to a place where thry see it as the only option - and when that happens Putin can choke to death with anger in his bunker but h's not goong to be able to do a thing about it.

So we better have answer to what escalations and further bull**** Putin will come with.

That's my point exactly. What will he do when his front starts to freeze or even collapse? This guy will stop at nothing. What will the West do if he goes nuclear or chemical against Ukraine? 

[Grigb]

Last video here. I think I will create separate topics and will put translated videos there. 

T-64BV, long-range thermal imager

The city is 10 kilometers away

Ranges

• 00:12 - 00:18 around 3.5 km to 2 white spots (possibly cars)
• 0:49 250-300 m

It all depends on the size and temperature contrast of the target. A tank [with] working [engine] is visible from five kilometers. Recognition [is possible] from four-three and a half km.

It is 2017 system [possibly T-64 modification 2017]

[chrisl]

7 hours ago, panzermartin said:

What is left for us who want to challenge the dominant narrative line here? 

I 80% rely on this thread to get my info about the war. I'm not so prone to russian propaganda as @Grigb says . Yes I sometimes visit some pro russian forums as well , but guess what, I challenge them the same way and get bashed "don't listen to UKR Nazi propaganda" . They are much worse than here to be honest

 

I think the difference here is that people actually want to know when they're wrong so they can make better assessments in the future.  It's not about the "narrative", it's about understanding what's happening, going to happen, and how either side can/will achieve a particular outcome.

7 hours ago, panzermartin said:

UA has definitely hurt RU logistics with newly acquired hardware no doubt. And it's much easier to do that when your opponent is on the offensive and in a hurry with predicted routes and command hubs. RU has demonstrated the ability to hit long range targets but I never claimed their effectiveness is on par with western standards. They have caused some serious damage though, the Mikolayev and Lviv barrack attacks comes to mind among others. 

But it's true Ukraine is still in the fight despite monthly everyday raids. AA is still up, Artillery is very much active, even UAF is active and this is a loud failure of RU. Lot of this has to do that UA has the huge advantage of having a big supermarket of NATO weaponry that can freely roam and pick what they want most of the times. RU can't compete on this but who can? 

But the actual degree RU has degraded UKR ability to fight is not clearly evident yet Imo. What we know is that most Soviet era stuff has been put out of action or is already expended. Some of it has to do with RU hitting targets deeply in UKR territory for those months. 

The moment of truth of whether the RU has inflicted a serious blow to UA ability to conduct major operations will soon come. Some  are overly confident that they will inevitably degrade and push back the occupiers but I guess we'll have to wait and see. 

Ukraine is arguably better equipped and trained now than they were on Feb 24. They've been getting a steady supply of materiel from protected areas.  First it was old Warsaw Pact stuff compatible with what they started with, and it underwent a transition to NATO stuff where the WP stuff is is running out and it's been possible to do the cross training.  Russia burned all their best forces and equipment in the initial tank rush and have been struggling to recover ever since. Finally reverting to just walking artillery slowly over the ground and trying to bring in troops behind it.

And back to the technical capabilities of the two forces - it started out as an interesting controlled experiment with essentially the same Soviet equipment and training on both sides, with one side augmented by a steady moderate level supply of NATO training for ~7 years, an assortment of fancy modern (and very effective) ATGMs, and the best air and spaceborne ISR money can buy.  We've seen the results, and it tilts heavily toward Ukraine in the long run as long as the west keeps up the spending and ISR.

As far as USSR/Russia spending all kinds of money to maintain parity, they blew a few major chances that left them decades behind in technology and have now set themselves up to not ever be able to catch up without a drastic change in how the country operates. Steve or Grigb or someone who studies history can probably tell you why, but I can point out the gaps and when they happened.  In the late 60s/early 70s, VLSI started ramping up in the west and at the time the USSR likely could have done the same - they had no shortage of very intelligent people and the country was rich in natural resources.  For whatever reasons, they never really had the electronics revolution that you see in the US/Western Europe/Asia.  As noted earlier - they were still launching film capsules that take a month to return in 2015 (even the early US dropped capsules got caught in-flight by planes, James Bond style), while the US had digital cameras in space on 2.4 m telescopes with real-time return in 1976. In 2010, the NRO was giving away telescopes that size to other agencies, presumably because they're mostly obsolete.  The USSR did have good optical capability, but mostly through the East German client state and not as part of the union.  When the USSR collapsed, it left Russia with some excellent capability on access to space and a lot of really smart people.  Had Russia made a strong effort towards joining the west and ramped up knowledge-based industries they might have had a chance.  They didn't do it hard enough for long enough, and enormous numbers of their scientists and engineers went to the west.  I've worked (and still work) with many, many scientists and engineers who were educated in and often started their careers in the USSR who are now very American (and still very smart).  And with the latest mess they're facing another brain drain.  So Russia really no longer stands a chance of ever catching up in the technology world.

For evidence of this on the ground: how many of Russia's tanks/planes/helicopters have GPS receivers in them?  How many of those are western made consumer devices (almost all).  Why aren't they using GLONASS receivers (LOL)?  Where do the cameras in their Orlan drones come from (Japanese consumer cameras)?  Why aren't we seeing effective APS on RU tanks (they don't actually have them)?  Why does Ukraine still have an Air Force (RU can generate radar signals but have 1970s processing of the return signal)?  How did Ukraine hit a ship at sea that has a sophisticated AD radar/missile system (it's not sophisticated enough to deal with even a few simultaneous targets effectively)? What about RU PGMs (see the note about GPS - RU PGMs mostly navigate by dead reckoning, and even if they have GPS it's probably being degraded over Ukraine by the US)?  

Basically, they don't have the tech and won't in your lifetime.  Some of the historians can explain why.  I can only give really simplistic answers (an 8008 chip looks kind of lame in a parade full of tanks?).  The USSR and Russia had the opportunities and blew them in favor of maintaining an extraction-based economy rather than a value-added based economy.

[akd]

Best part:

 

[OldSarge]

42 minutes ago, Letter from Prague said:

So positive, negative and null decidion space is something you defined? I'm not succeeding googling it.

The_Capt defined his terminology in his post way, way, back in April.  Hard to keep up with all of the excellent information in this thread!

 

[Combatintman]

2 hours ago, The_Capt said:

We can build assumptions but they have to remain on speaking terms with the facts.  Once an assumption becomes a fact we are in trouble. 

Decision-making and intelligence doctrine disagrees with you on that point.  Any assumptions in planning should be covered by an IR/RFI to confirm/deny said assumption.

Otherwise ... a very interesting post.  In broad terms I work on the principle of "if it looks right then it probably is" and move from there by looking to prove/disprove the assertion.  The point that you make about what is not seen is well-made and an-oft forgotten element of intelligence trade craft - I continue to be surprised at the insights that can be derived from applying this principle.