How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Beleg85]

Sorry for slight offtop, but Russia trolling herself into oblivion is worth to be seen (check tires on the truck, general happy mood and public expressions. Oh, and USSR flag of course):

 

Edited July 24, 2022 by Beleg85

[Haiduk]

New strikes on Daryivka bridge...

... and at the bridge on the dam on Nova Kakhovka

Local pro-Russian "authorities" hasitly try to repair damaged bridges. This is Nova Kakhova

 

Also Russians are concentrating pontoon units - there was spotted moving of columns between Velyki Kopani and Radensk - total 22 pontoon and egineer vehicles. By some assesments Russsians prepare to establish pontoon crossing, heavy defended with AD, between Kozach Laheri and Nova Kakhovka.

Local collaborant administration, feared by level of locals, involved in resistance. issued recently two decrees: the first says that any, who involved in "extremists" activity (unloyality to occupants, sharing of proclamations, discreditation of RuAF) will be evicted from own homes out of territory of Kherson oblast (likely to Russia). The second one says, any who will be cought during sabotage or espionage, can be executed through shot out at the crime scene. Russian Rodgvardia and local collaborant police have been conducting total checkings in several villages aroud bridges

UKR General Staff claimed Russian S-300 battery was destroyed today near Zelenotropynske village, Kherson oblast. Thre are no photos yet, but FIRMS shows a fire in this place

  

 

Edited July 24, 2022 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

5 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Sorry for slight offtop, but Russia trolling herself into oblivion so painfully is worth to be seen (check tires on the truck and public expressions):

The same was on UKR positions during ATO/OOS. This is just what on Soviet "politruks" language called "events of moral and psychological support (MPS)". Despite in UKR army "politruks" were substituted on "deputy comamnders of MPS" the methods and visions of moral support remained almost the same, like in Soviet army. Soldiers mostly without any interest were forced under threaten of rebukes and salary fines to be present on such concerts of voiceless village artists with formulaik patriotic songs, written by mediocre authors. 

[Haiduk]

This night was HIMARSed the hotel building in Krasnyi Luch (Khrustalnyi), Luhansk oblast, occupied since 2014. As local wrote on the eve, to the town have been arriving groups of former Russian criminal convicts, which signed contracts with PVCs - per 150-200 for a day. Looks like there was information, they have been deploying in this hotel. But this can be also disinformation in order HIMARSes hit empty target.  

Russians hit the school in Kostiantynivka, Donetsk oblast (though if this was guided missiles, there is only close impacts). Russian command cocidered large public buildings like potential facilities, which can be used by UKR military

  

 

Edited July 24, 2022 by Haiduk

[Beleg85]

21 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

The same was on UKR positions during ATO/OOS. This is just what on Soviet "politruks" language called "events of moral and psychological support (MPS)". Despite in UKR army "politruks" were substituted on "deputy comamnders of MPS" the methods and visions of moral support remained almost the same, like in Soviet army. Soldiers mostly without any interest were forced under threaten of rebukes and salary fines to be present on such concerts of voiceless village artists with formulaik patriotic songs, written by mediocre authors. 

Yep, I suspected so. Such concerts are common in almost any army, we have them here as well. Still they didn't make it under USSR banners, right?

Music for some of those "garrison concerts" not look that bad. Szerokij Łan vocalist reportedly did them too, and he has very good voice:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mdag6WQR_zo&t=281s

His "Hymn of 30 Brigade" is frankly great, I wonder they don't put this music in their "tank busting" videos instead of common painfull techno dubsteps.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f9tw7vjYhP4

 

Ok, enough about music. A short thread about Kherson city, this account seem more legit than famous Canadian.

https://twitter.com/NLwartracker/status/1550755234061991942

Edited July 24, 2022 by Beleg85

[billbindc]

4 hours ago, panzermartin said:

But of course. It's like that from the beginning. All the official RU roars are empty threats. (Except maybe the final nuclear answer if they get cornered) Every time something bad happens to Russia from NATO intervention, they reply "the consequences will be severe" and nothing happens. This country was forced to fight a war nobody really wanted. It's really a tragedy what's unfolding. Can you imagine going to WW3 by mistake.

Btw given the claimed bad state of Russian weapons I was surprised that no missile landed in Poland by malfunction. (Lviv is very close to the border) So they must be doing something right

"This country was forced to fight a war nobody wanted" is about as persuasive as Hitler's claims that the German people had to fight to avoid "racial annihilation". This was a war of choice by ambitious old men running a kleptocracy who don't want to be known as broken old men who used to run a kleptocracy. 

Edited July 24, 2022 by billbindc

[mosuri]

On 7/22/2022 at 11:06 PM, poesel said:

You can say what you want about Germans, but we honor contracts. Finland will soon be in NATO and there is also an EU defense pact. There is no doubt that both countries would come to help Finland.
I also like to add that Germany historically has quite a good track record for helping Finland vs the Russians.

It's not that much about contract obligations, but what would you send? We have over 200 Leopards -- roughly the same number as Germany, and we're a much smaller nation economically and by population! Luftwaffe has about 200 fighter jets and one third of those are ancient Tornados -- Finland has 60+ and again that is not in proportion to the size of the economy and population.

Not to say that the situation could be such that Germany would have need to keep its equipment within Germany for strategic reasons -- would be completely understandable.

So I would not bet the house on the hope that you'd come to help --does not seem realistic.

(And let's not start discussing about how 3rd Reich honored contractual obligations, that will not lead to anywhere good. Besides, we've not forgotten we Ribbentrop et al. sold us to the Russians in exchange for a slice of Poland either)

 

[Haiduk]

1 hour ago, Beleg85 said:

Music for some of those "garrison concerts" not look that bad. Szerokij Łan vocalist reportedly did them too, and he has very good voice:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mdag6WQR_zo&t=281s

His "Hymn of 30 Brigade" is frankly great, a pitty they don't put this music in their "tank busting" videos instead of this painfull techno dubsteps.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f9tw7vjYhP4

Hymn of 30th brigade is outstanding! I never head about this group ) Tough medieval rock rythm matches  to this brigade, named after prince Konstantyn Ostrozhskyi, famous Ruthenian warlord of glory times of PLC knightship, fought with Moskovia. Thouhg, theese songs continue a good trend, started several years ago - the new generation of musicians, part of which came from military (like Riffmaster) or from active patriotic environ, began to create new miliitary motivation music, based on rock or medieval rock style (like 30th hymn ) instead of Soviet-type pathetic. This trend was launched as far as by since 2014 by Azov - their normanic-vicings aesthetic attracted to them such rock groups like "Shadow of the Sun" and "Perun's axe"  

Here is also good example of modern UKR miltary music - the hymn of 10th mountain assault brigade "Edelveis" from Kozak System group, also rock, but some softer and with some Ukrainain folk tunes ) Also you can see pre-war equipment of brigde %)

 

Edited July 24, 2022 by Haiduk

[panzermartin]

21 minutes ago, billbindc said:

"This country was forced to fight a war nobody wanted" is about as persuasive as Hitler's claims that the Germany people had to fight to avoid "racial annihilation". This was a war of choice by ambitious old men running a kleptocracy who don't want to be known as broken old men who used to run a kleptocracy. 

History is not linear. We have talked about the deeper reasons fascism was nurtured in post WW1 Germany. The British empire monopoly, the capitalist anatagonism, the global anti communist phobia, the humiliation of a defeated great power and the economic misery, that sunk them into this illness. They didnt wake up on day and said we are going to rule the world. It's the conditions that make the characters not vice versa. Watch how fascism will rise again in Germany and Europe once it sinks into poverty or is neglected its cheap energy from the East. Oh, and they are building a big army I heard.

Russia is heading the same way Germany was unfortunately. And it's not in the steering wheel no matter what. The most powerful  and the monopolies of this world are always the moving force. 

[akd]

HIMARS said “HI!” to a S-300 battery S of Kherson:

 

[billbindc]

30 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

History is not linear. We have talked about the deeper reasons fascism was nurtured in post WW1 Germany. The British empire monopoly, the capitalist anatagonism, the global anti communist phobia, the humiliation of a defeated great power and the economic misery, that sunk them into this illness. They didnt wake up on day and said we are going to rule the world. It's the conditions that make the characters not vice versa. Watch how fascism will rise again in Germany and Europe once it sinks into poverty or is neglected its cheap energy from the East. Oh, and they are building a big army I heard.

Russia is heading the same way Germany was unfortunately. And it's not in the steering wheel no matter what. The most powerful  and the monopolies of this world are always the moving force. 

That isn’t anything more than a way for a political class or party to deny complicity in or responsibility for atrocity. It wasn’t any more persuasive when it was said by Die Sturmer in 1939 than when it is said by Jacobin in 2022.

Arthur Koestler wrote a little book about it.

[Butschi]

45 minutes ago, mosuri said:

And let's not start discussing about how 3rd Reich honored contractual obligations

Yes, let's not because implying that the Bundesrepublik Deutschland of 2022 would somehow not honour their obligations because the 3rd Reich didn't either is such utter BS that its bot worth discussing. I mean, seriously, why did Finland want to join NATO in the first place? UK and France didn't help Poland, either, after all.

Really, I've said it before this is not the time for pet peeves and bashing each other, this is just making Putin's work easier.

[Butschi]

5 minutes ago, billbindc said:

That isn’t anything more than a way for a political class or party to deny complicity in or responsibility for atrocity. It wasn’t any more persuasive when it was said by Die Sturmer in 1939 than when it is said by Jacobin in 2022.

Arthur Koestler wrote a little book about it.

You may not agree with @panzermartins opinion but it is far from being anywhere near to "Der Stürmer".

[billbindc]

7 minutes ago, Butschi said:

You may not agree with @panzermartins opinion but it is far from being anywhere near to "Der Stürmer".

I don’t know nearly enough about @panzermartin to call him either a fascist or a bolshevik. I’m saying accurately that he’s using the same cynical and ahistorical arguments they did in order to justify their atrocities. Is that uncomfortable? Well, I suppose I hope it is.

[OldSarge]

Its that time of the week again and another relevant topic for conversation is available from Perun.

 

Edited July 24, 2022 by OldSarge

[FancyCat]

On 7/23/2022 at 7:59 AM, panzermartin said:

Forced because Ukraine was slipping away from them each passing day and was cleary not possible to reverse the situation with political intervention. NATO presence in Ukraine would be a direct threat to the existance of the current status quo in Russia. And ironically, its NATO aid and intel thats killing most russians right now.  

With a heavy heart, because they mistakenly hoped Ukraine will collaspe by a sudden show of force. I dont think anyone wished for a prolonged bloody war , one that would cost them thousands of losses. They still call this a "special operation" and are reluctant to mass mobilize. Apart from the extremists, I don't think the army had much will to do this. The first days with massed abandoned equipment were a clear indication.

Unprepared because they could never match the aid of a coalition of the most advanced western military powers in the long term. 

 

23 hours ago, panzermartin said:

What dominant and shallow media you are talking about. You mean the ones have been bombarding us with the evil Russia thing since forever. The ones that were claiming that Russians sold their fuel for vodka or they are running out of missiles or tires since week 1. Or that Russia executed the heroic defenders on snake island. Because these make the 95% of mainstream World news. Yes, thats shallow. 

I mostly rely on info here, some Twitter accounts and surprisingly some pro russian places . Sometimes, among their blatant propaganda, they have more accurate info on what's going on the battlefield like in 2014. They quickly proved the 2000 russian encriclement that circulated here, was not true, as Haiduk confirmed. 

The rules of this western dominated world are set by the most powerful. Russia is not there among them, it's actually the underdog. Their friends are Iran and North Korea ffs. Underdogs don't set the rules and don't have the initiative that's why I don't agree with the thought that Russia had some grande world domination plan apart from securing its national interests NEXT to its borders and in mostly russian dominated areas. We ll see how the energy powerplay will unfold, I think it's their only serious leverage, as their military is so backwards as you all agree. 

 

This is some high grade apologia to defend Russian imperialism. One, "Ukraine slipping away from Russia", aside from denoting Ukraine as Russian owned, entitled to, "slipped" is a funny way of saying for punishment for seeking closer relations with the EU, Ukraine gets invaded and it's citizens killed and economy damaged in 2014, (not to mention the current invasion) it's "slipping away", Russia has done far more to give Ukraine reasons to run for EU and NATO membership by acting as violently (genocidal) as it has to Ukraine seeking NATO membership that does nothing to threaten Russia proper, and EU membership that is democratic, and peaceful and only threatens Russia via making the Russian people ask why they live like this when the EU lives like that.

"National interests" "next to it's borders" "Russian dominated areas" horse****. Russia before the invasion, demanded as part of ensuring it's "protection from NATO" that was driving supposedly it's reasons to invade Ukraine, that NATO withdraw forces back to 1997

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prelude_to_the_2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine#NATO–Russia_security_talks

Meaning the withdrawal of NATO defense from Poland, the Baltics, the Balkans, the map below shows it, so your saying Russia has the right to consider Belarus to be part of its borders? Ukraine? I guess Russia owns Serbia and Bosnia too considering they wanted the withdrawal of NATO from all neighboring states. "National interests" "next to it's borders" "Russian dominated areas" bull****. Let's not even get into the bull**** that is Russia thinking NATO is going to invade Russia. There is no national interests being secured via the withdrawal of NATO from Poland, much less Czechoslovakia, Romania, etc, etc.

I understand the need to be critical, but realize that Russian demands for preventing the invasion of Ukraine were maximal as hell, and sure as hell not emblematic of a Russia seeking security, but emblematic of Russia seeking imperial domination it once had.

 

[Haiduk]

Novobohdanivka village, Zaporizhzhia ovlast, 22 km north from Melitopol. Strike or diversion on railroad. Here two railroad branches converge - from Melitopol to Vasylivka and from Novobohdanivka to Tokmak on the east.

  

 

[Aragorn2002]

1 hour ago, mosuri said:

It's not that much about contract obligations, but what would you send? We have over 200 Leopards -- roughly the same number as Germany, and we're a much smaller nation economically and by population! Luftwaffe has about 200 fighter jets and one third of those are ancient Tornados -- Finland has 60+ and again that is not in proportion to the size of the economy and population.

Not to say that the situation could be such that Germany would have need to keep its equipment within Germany for strategic reasons -- would be completely understandable.

So I would not bet the house on the hope that you'd come to help --does not seem realistic.

(And let's not start discussing about how 3rd Reich honored contractual obligations, that will not lead to anywhere good. Besides, we've not forgotten we Ribbentrop et al. sold us to the Russians in exchange for a slice of Poland either)

 

On the other hand Germany played an important role in the Finnish independence war in 1918. The Germans need some time but will become a military powerhouse again. In the mean time countries like the US, UK, Sweden, Denmark, Norway and the Netherlands can and will come to your aid if needed. Are you personally in favor of NATO membership?

[akd]

@sburke @Kinophile

Col. Anatoly Stasyukevich, (as of 2020) 1st Deputy Commander, 1st Guards Composite Aviation Division:

Maj. Sergey Gorin, unit unknown:

 

Maj. Roman Grovich, Mi-26 pilot, wing commander in 17th Guards Army Aviation Brigade:

Chechen police Lt. Col. Zaur Dimaeva, Deputy Commander, 4th Battalion, Special Police Regiment "Akhmat":

 

[cesmonkey]

Boris Johnson tags along with the training of Ukrainian soldiers:

 

[danfrodo]

42 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

 

This is some high grade apologia to defend Russian imperialism. One, "Ukraine slipping away from Russia", aside from denoting Ukraine as Russian owned, entitled to, "slipped" is a funny way of saying for punishment for seeking closer relations with the EU, Ukraine gets invaded and it's citizens killed and economy damaged in 2014, (not to mention the current invasion) it's "slipping away", Russia has done far more to give Ukraine reasons to run for EU and NATO membership by acting as violently (genocidal) as it has to Ukraine seeking NATO membership that does nothing to threaten Russia proper, and EU membership that is democratic, and peaceful and only threatens Russia via making the Russian people ask why they live like this when the EU lives like that.

"National interests" "next to it's borders" "Russian dominated areas" horse****. Russia before the invasion, demanded as part of ensuring it's "protection from NATO" that was driving supposedly it's reasons to invade Ukraine, that NATO withdraw forces back to 1997

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prelude_to_the_2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine#NATO–Russia_security_talks

Meaning the withdrawal of NATO defense from Poland, the Baltics, the Balkans, the map below shows it, so your saying Russia has the right to consider Belarus to be part of its borders? Ukraine? I guess Russia owns Serbia and Bosnia too considering they wanted the withdrawal of NATO from all neighboring states. "National interests" "next to it's borders" "Russian dominated areas" bull****. Let's not even get into the bull**** that is Russia thinking NATO is going to invade Russia. There is no national interests being secured via the withdrawal of NATO from Poland, much less Czechoslovakia, Romania, etc, etc.

I understand the need to be critical, but realize that Russian demands for preventing the invasion of Ukraine were maximal as hell, and sure as hell not emblematic of a Russia seeking security, but emblematic of Russia seeking imperial domination it once had.

 

the NATO expansion as excuse for Russian serial mass murder & conquest is hilarious.  Free, sovereign nations joined NATO because they were terrified of Russia.  Russia then proves all those nations wrong by performing serial mass murder and a war of conquest on Ukraine, solely because it was the most valuable free, sovereign nation that hadn't joined NATO. 

Really, a fantasy writer couldn't dream up this stuff any better.. 

[Harmon Rabb]

Not the brightest idea in the world.

[Beleg85]

2 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Hymn of 30th brigade is outstanding! I never head about this group ) Tough medieval rock rythm matches  to this brigade, named after prince Konstantyn Ostrozhskyi, famous Ruthenian warlord of glory times of PLC knightship, fought with Moskovia. Thouhg, theese songs continue a good trend, started several years ago - the new generation of musicians, part of which came from military (like Riffmaster) or from active patriotic environ, began to create new miliitary motivation music, based on rock or medieval rock style (like 30th hymn ) instead of Soviet-type pathetic. This trend was launched as far as by since 2014 by Azov - their normanic-vicings aesthetic attracted to them such rock groups like "Shadow of the Sun" and "Perun's axe"

In the first week of the invasion, we organized with several friends a small help-center for Ukrainian refugees and cheer them up by playing among others "30 Brig hymn" on large stereos. Psychologists slightly whined, but we prove them wrong- our tent was most flooded among ca.40 others NGO's, really listening this song bring those poor people more joy and shivers down their spines than even official Ukrainian antheim (which is also very nice and played constantly, btw). We broke more copyrights laws those days than even Russia broke the treaties.

Patrons of many Ukrainian brigades really speaks about our common history. Their signs (54th, 57th and 58th particulary) are actually emblems coming from knighted/princely families or cities with King's privilages way into Polish-Lithuanian (in fact:Ruthenian) Commonwealth. Kniaz Konstanty Ostrogski (as he is known here) was considered one of those great Commonwealth historical figures. Later I met with Belarussians, Lithuanians and Ukrainians and they all also think his heritage was "theirs". Good times when smashing Muscovite invasions was so fashionable everybody in Central Europe wanted to have their part.

 

Op, Ukriane will have another Bayraktar. Cool, but they are probbaly less useful now than 2 months ago.

https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-society/3535862-polish-fundraiser-aimed-to-buy-bayraktar-drone-for-ukraine-sees-success.html

48 minutes ago, cesmonkey said:

Boris Johnson tags along with the training of Ukrainian soldiers

Tactical Boris... It's curious how memory of heritage in the future will probbaly be much milder due to last months and his resolve on Ukraine issue.

 

PS>Some day we will need small UI CMBS Mod just with these emblems.

 

Edited July 24, 2022 by Beleg85

[Grigb]

2 hours ago, panzermartin said:

Russia is heading the same way Germany was unfortunately. And it's not in the steering wheel no matter what. The most powerful  and the monopolies of this world are always the moving force. 

And if I tell you that RU is not heading there because it was already there from the beginning? You do know that they had concentration camps simultaneously with Germans?

[Taranis]

"An armored convoy of Russian troops drives through the part of the Zaporizhia region held by Russia, in Ukraine, July 23, 2022. ALEXANDER ERMOCHENKO / REUTERS"

*BMD-2

Edited July 24, 2022 by Taranis