How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Beleg85]

18 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

I don’t understand what strategic goal the shopping center represents. What is the point of wasting a valuable rocket on a civilian object? Probably the reason was a post on social networks a few DAYS before the missile strike. Do you think this is called effective target intelligence?

There were several military trucks reportedly in this mall earlier night, and I think one Gozdzik SPG if I remember (other suggestes Buk but no proof as I know). BTW. hitting such building for a target that unimportant is a joke.

Of course at the start of the war they did hit painfully obvious targets, like Yovoriv, Mikolaiev base, several airfields; they are also bombing military industry pretty heavy. But those are massive military or industrial complexes.

1 hour ago, panzermartin said:

No Ukraine is not on par (yet) with the long range capabilities of RA despite the HIMARS panic. 

If we talk about strategic- sure they are not, they would bomb Moskow by that time if they did, isn't it? But on operational and tactical level they are wrecking them masterfully, and it goes better every week.

Something to laugh. Public is thrilled, only VIP-s.

Edited July 22, 2022 by Beleg85

[FancyCat]

More akin to a almost pocket. interesting tho, Ukraine hasn’t been able to do actions like this in the south no? I would think if Ukraine massed the forces needed to create a partial pocket, Russia would simply blast the UKR massed units. That Ukraine can now move forces in such a fashion seems positive for Ukraine no?
 

 

 

[Grigb]

1 minute ago, Haiduk said:

Here captured Russian map, using by units, atatcking Kharkiv. it was issued in 1969: https://mil.in.ua/uk/news/pered-vtorgnennyam-vijskovym-rosiyi-vydaly-zastarili-karty-ukrayiny/

 

Sorry, but for the record I would like to provide an alternate view from CIT

Quote

Among the documents captured from the soldier of the 138 motorized rifle brigade, the SBU found and published maps of 1969. Despite the fact that even the marching order schemes are visible on these maps, we believe that in reality Russian soldiers did not use the maps (but they are required to have them for reporting).

 

[Artkin]

How about the base in Lyiv where volunteers were killed? 

[Vanir Ausf B]

Western intelligence agencies guesstimate Russian KIA @ 15,000 - 25,000.

 

[Haiduk]

3 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

Neither Russia nor Ukraine has the density and number of troops in arms to make it like prior WWII or WWI.

Russians do the same what did "granddads" in WWII, but in reduced scale. Just where Red Army used division, they use BTG, but with the same massing of arty and armor. Ok, they added more effective CAS, then they had in WWII. 

[Haiduk]

8 minutes ago, Grigb said:

Sorry, but for the record I would like to provide an alternate view from CIT

My friend told me, how Russian missiles and aviation devastated the north of Zhytomyr oblast, though there was nothing intersesting except small screen forces. Why? Because on old maps there were marked many SAM positions, military facilities and ammunitin stores of USSR times. No matetr, all this was abandoned and removed two dozens years ago, so on the place of ammo strore now is cottadge district - Russians anyway launched missiles there.  

Edited July 22, 2022 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

14 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

More akin to a almost pocket. interesting tho, Ukraine hasn’t been able to do actions like this in the south no? I would think if Ukraine massed the forces needed to create a partial pocket, Russia would simply blast the UKR massed units. That Ukraine can now move forces in such a fashion seems positive for Ukraine no?
 

 

 

DefMon reads Konstantin Mashovets

[Grigb]

 

11 minutes ago, Artkin said:

How about the base in Lyiv where volunteers were killed? 

 

38 minutes ago, Grigb said:

Yes, they have some agents. Yes, they hit something painful for UKR (at least few barracks few times for example). It is not like all their strikes are misses. But given that for a few weeks they are unable to track and hit such High Priority Target as HIMARS (operating not that far from LBS) I can guaranty you that their long-range strike capabilities are low. Like very low. Unbelievably low.

Those who live in glass houses shouldn’t throw stones.

 

[Beleg85]

3 hours ago, Haiduk said:

My familiar posted in own FB photos of M14 rifles, which got their TD unit, which fights somewhere in Kharkiv oblast. He said usually soldiers have not good opinion about this rifle because it more hard in mastering and firing, so they try to change it on some more useful, but he choose it because he was reenactor of Vietnam war ) 

Theese two rifles from different manufacturers - H&M s/n 913969 (likely 1962-63) and TRW s/n 1889492 (he can't found the year by number)

Some Ukrainians seem to love Vietnam War esthetics, it's quite common in movies from frontline, weapons and clothing as far I can tell. It was even fitting for battles over Siversky Donetsk river.

Btw, after this war, when Ukraine will recapture those territories, I'll need to visit those battlefields. Before the war had no idea Donbas has so many great parks, forests and rivers.

Edited July 22, 2022 by Beleg85

[Sojourner]

Speaking of Vietnam War esthetics, I'm anxiously waiting to see what they do with those riverine boats they got a few weeks back. Hopefully something more serious than water skiing.

Edited July 22, 2022 by Sojourner

[Haiduk]

1 minute ago, Beleg85 said:

Btw, after this war, when Ukraine will recapture those territories, I'll need to visit those battlefields. Before the war had no idea Donbas has so many parks, forests and rivers.

This is northern part of Donbas, but hystorically this is so-called Slobozhanshchyna or Slobidska Ukraina. "Classical" pre-industrial Donbas is steppes, sometimes cutted with gulches (ukr. "balka") and small rivers.

[Grigb]

Interview of UKR Reserve Colonel, military expert Roman Svitan

Part 3

A turning point in the war

• After Ukraine started using HIMARS, a turning point in the war came
• UKR counteroffensive is already happening. it is carried out by small counteroffensive actions. This mode is called pushing
• End of the war can end by the end of the year
• With the current pace of arms supplies and training it is realistic to liberate the entire territory of Ukraine by the end of the year.

Quote

- A turning point in the war - when can it take place and what will it look like?

- After Ukraine started using HIMARS, a turning point in the war came. When we started blowing up their logistics chains, blowing up almost all the divisional warehouses and control points, after that there was a turning point in the war. They stopped advancing. The only place where they are all trying to attack is the section from Seversk to Bakhmut.

And this turning point is irreversible. We have an increasing number of HIMARS, missiles and their nomenclatures. We're going to burn out their logistics now. When missiles with a range of up to 300 km appear, it will be possible to strike the Kerch Bridge or the Sevastopol Bay. And then the Russians will only be able to intimidate us and build up [their] defense.

- What about the counteroffensive?

- It's already happening. As soon as HIMARS entered Ukraine, we launched a counteroffensive, which is carried out by small counteroffensive actions. This mode is called pushing. And we will continue to do so. As such, there will be no powerful counteroffensive, which everyone is talking about.

- Do you agree with the leadership of Ukraine that the war can end by the end of the year?

- Yes, I agree, but only the hot phase. The war will end only after the collapse of the Russian Federation. Until then, we must always be on alert. Ukraine will not be able to break up Russia by itself, only the world community can do it. It is necessary to repeat the set of measures that was taken for the collapse of the USSR.

The issue of de-occupation of the entire Ukrainian territory, including Crimea and Donbass, may be resolved by the end of the year.

- Sounds optimistic. They usually talk about the withdrawal of our troops to the borders as of February 24.

- The narrative "to the borders as of February 24" is Russian. It is important for them that we leave this boundary in our heads in order to manipulate it. For a military man, there is no such border "on February 24," he has an oath to protect the sovereignty of Ukraine and its territorial integrity.

With the current pace of arms supplies and training of the Armed Forces, it is realistic to liberate the entire territory of Ukraine by the end of the year. And now this process will be avalanche-like: with the arrival of a new batch of HIMARS, an increasing effect on the front line will be visible.

If a decision is made to start entering Donetsk and not to tell a "fairy tale" about February 24, then the Russians' front will crumble. In addition, the Russian political leadership will have problems linking their "operation" into something unified when they lose Donetsk. All their agreements will collapse, because Donetsk is the key point in this whole war. What would be the point of keeping Mariupol if Donetsk is lost? So I think we'll be done with most of the things by the end of the year. But! – provided that the current pace of arms supplies is maintained.

Important point regarding counter offensive:

• Military expert Roman Svitan - It's already happening. As soon as HIMARS entered Ukraine, we launched a counteroffensive, which is carried out by small counteroffensive actions. This mode is called pushing. And we will continue to do so. As such, there will be no powerful counteroffensive, which everyone is talking about
• Military observer Konstantin Mashovets - advice to all do not expect WWI or WWII scale operations with massing of armor, infantry, huge artilelry bombardments and human-wave assaults. He said this is model of past wars and despite Russia continue to stick on them, but UKR rejected this and will try to play in modern methods of warfare. He named this "gradually softening" of enemy defense, using advantage in ISR and precise striking assets. Ground operations will have tactical purposes...

So, no deep maneuvers but softening the enemy (including deep operational strikes) with tactical pushes. 

[Haiduk]

13 minutes ago, Sojourner said:

Speaking of Vietnam War esthetics, I'm anxiously waiting to see what they do with those riverine boats they got a few weeks back. Hopefully something more serious than water skiing.

Probably this for Dnieper flotilia. I've seen three boats some time ago on Dnieper, but too far, I can't recognize what exactly.  Now we use some armed vessels - tugs, fire boats and even passenger boat.

I think, they can be useful in future operations on the south - on Kakhovka water reservoir. 

 

Edited July 22, 2022 by Haiduk

[Cederic]

11 minutes ago, Sojourner said:

Hopefully something more serious than water skiing.

Cossacks don't surf!

 

[Beleg85]

3 minutes ago, Sojourner said:

Speaking of Vietnam War esthetics, I'm anxiously waiting to see what they do with those riverine boats they got a few weeks back. Hopefully something more serious than water skiing.

I would expect some raids over the Dnieper, perhaps even on Nuclear Plant or Kahkovka. Nature of the river seems perfect for such raids, especially during summer.

When detailed history of the use of Special Forces in this war will become known it will be undoubtedly epic, and probably influence thinking about such operation during conventional conflicts even in NATO armies.

8 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

This is northern part of Donbas, but hystorically this is so-called Slobozhanshchyna or Slobidska Ukraina. "Classical" pre-industrial Donbas is steppes, sometimes cutted with gulches (ukr. "balka") and small rivers.

Yep, I know, but even terrains around Zolotye looked very nice from hiker's perspective. Plus Donbas and Eastern/Southern Ukraine in general is actually very diverse from anthropological and historical side- my friends archeologists were always very  enamoured with the country's archeological remains.

[FancyCat]

The bridges over the Dnipro in central Ukraine are still up. Why?

Why did Snake Island get abandoned due to a single 155mm mobile gun firing from a beach?

And UKR aircraft bombing a island that should have been covered by CAP from Crimea?

Why does Odessa still have Harpoon sites?

Why is UKR AA still up? How has Russia not destroyed the roads being used to launch aircraft?

 

[Letter from Prague]

With regards to EU unity. Right now, the pro-Russian voices are saying "Russia is still advancing, Ukraine is still losing, the best you can hope for is a stalemate, there is no point in extending this."

Ukraine succeeding in taking something significant back would do a lot to shut those up. This is another reason why Kherson is really important. I'm sure the Russians know as well, at least the ones that aren't stupid (Girkin might be a monster but he ain't dumb).

[Haiduk]

12 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Yep, I know, but even terrains around Zolotye looked very nice from hiker's perspective. Plus Donbas and Eastern/Southern Ukraine in general is actually very diverse from anthropological and historical side- my friends archeologists were always very  enamoured with the country's archeological remains.

Yeah, at least the same Kamyana Mohyla (Stone Grave) - the rock outcrop in Zaporizhzhia steppes near Melitopol with 4000 BC pertoglyphs or 5500 years "Ukrainian Stonehenge", found in 2021 near Dnipro in Novooleksandrivka village

 

Edited July 22, 2022 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

13 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

Why did Snake Island get abandoned due to a single 155mm mobile gun firing from a beach?

Оh, this is just patriotic legend Bohdana, of course participated, but Russians fled from island not because of single howitzer ) 

[Beleg85]

5 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Yeah, at least the same Kamyana Mohyla (Stone Grave) - the rock outcrop in Zaporizhzhia steppes near Melitopol with 4000 BC pertoglyphs or 5500 years "Ukrainian Stonehenge", found in 2021 near Dnipro in Novooleksandrivka village

Waht a coincidence, I knew a guy who did a dig there (not at this exact site but just opposite). There also plenty Sarmatian kurhans near by and generally in Pontic region. I always think of Southern Left-Bank Ukraine as a place when first Indo-Europeans probably originated, succeeded by generations of Scythians, Sarmatians, Cumans, Tartars,later Ruthenians but even small pockets of Greeks and Croats- they all lived there.

Like in Iraq, it was really a stupid place to wage war, probably many of those sites are subjected to war now.

12 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Оh, this is just patriotic legend Bohdana, of course participated, but Russians fled from island not because of single howitzer ) 

They did it because of this cat they lately rescued...

 

Back to business- rumours of Russian cauldron seem to divide the net, now Mark Hertling is spreading the good news but we probably should be very cautious.

[Harmon Rabb]

Disappointing news.

[Calamine Waffles]

Probably still negotiating I imagine.

[G.I. Joe]

5 minutes ago, Calamine Waffles said:

Probably still negotiating I imagine.

My thoughts exactly...I very much doubt if that is a final answer.

[The_Capt]

1 hour ago, Grigb said:

• Military expert Roman Svitan - It's already happening. As soon as HIMARS entered Ukraine, we launched a counteroffensive, which is carried out by small counteroffensive actions. This mode is called pushing. And we will continue to do so. As such, there will be no powerful counteroffensive, which everyone is talking about
• Military observer Konstantin Mashovets - advice to all do not expect WWI or WWII scale operations with massing of armor, infantry, huge artilelry bombardments and human-wave assaults. He said this is model of past wars and despite Russia continue to stick on them, but UKR rejected this and will try to play in modern methods of warfare. He named this "gradually softening" of enemy defense, using advantage in ISR and precise striking assets. Ground operations will have tactical purposes...

We speculated on this way back - high resolution find, infiltrate, isolate and kill in detail…repeat.  Bite sized chunks, all the while hammering deep high value targets to disrupt logistics and dislocate reserves. 21st century manoeuvre through attrition, distributed mass, precision fires - fog eating snow.

Now let’s see how it works