How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Grigb]

8 minutes ago, IanL said:

What are the percentages like I wonder. Q-Anon believers (even only partial belief) seems to be under 15% (https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-its-so-hard-to-gauge-support-for-qanon/). What are the numbers like in Russia? I know polling is not very reliable so perhaps there is no way to know for sure. My question is, in the US (and other parts of the world) people have access to other points of view, how much access do Russian speakers in Russia have to other points of view and more accurate facts?

Much greater than we usually think. Internet is internet. Telegram is working. Fun fact - even though Telegram is enemy of RU state, RU Nats love it. Free speech is bad, but it is good. RU is not China. It is not completely blocked from the outside world.

Theoretically the main problem is language - apart from Giving thee people liberals not many people can read/listen foreign languages. In reality though you are dealing with people who chose not to believe heinous foreign or liberal (which is proxy for heinous foreign) information. So, even if you provide Russian language info you still will be stigmatized as heinous foreign disinfo.

Access is not the problem. Acceptance of reality is.

[Grigb]

13 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

Let me get this straight:  RU warhawk reporting offensives will begin out of the Kherson bridgehead.  This is hilarious.  The one supply route has just been shown to be vulnerable to destruction any time UKR chooses.  Of course, IMO this is great news.  Yes, RU, please place more stuff on the right bank. 

To even say such nonsense is really breathtaking.  this is a fascinating look at just how delusional folks can be.

On one hand it smells like dumb disinfo. On other hand RU is RU - Out of all courses of action chose the worst one as the most confusing for enemy. Art of RU War.

[Battlefront.com]

4 hours ago, panzermartin said:

Isn't a little truth in there.

Nope, no truth

4 hours ago, panzermartin said:

155 aren't the game changers that was hoped in those numbers provided to Ukraine.

Oh, but it absolutely was a game changer for three reasons:

1.  Ukraine was running out of 152mm shells, so the addition of 155s means it can keep up its artillery usage instead of it declining to nothing.  That right there is a "game changer".

2.  The quality of the new systems means that tactically Ukraine can engage targets at further ranges with more safety than with the legacy systems.  This might not be a "game changer", but it certainly is making a noticeable improvement.

3.  The systems can fire PGMs which their old 152mm systems could not.  This absolutely is a "game changer" because important targets that previously couldn't be reliably hit are now being struck.

4 hours ago, panzermartin said:

And I was wondering there are also Soviet guided MLRS that can hit warehouses and command posts already in extreme long ranges , what is so much special about Himars. 

Posts already made to show you what the difference is, so I won't repeat that stuff in detail.  Suffice to say there's a qualitative difference between Russia's ability to strike stuff and what HIMARS can do.  Russia tries to strike something and they generally hit something else, like a school or a shopping mall.  Ukraine doesn't have the same problems with HIMARS.  If they aim at something they hit it, almost guaranteed.  Plus, Ukraine only needs to fire one or a couple of HIMARS to destroy something, Russia has to saturate the target for even a hope of hitting.

And like the 152mm ammo, Ukraine has been running low on their own stocks of long range rockets so this is a substitute.  A vastly superior substitute.

Think about it this way.  In a couple of weeks Ukraine knocked out a dozen ammo supply dumps and a couple of HQs.  It did this with HIMARS and 155 weapons.  Don't you think it would have done this with it's previous weaponry if it could have?  That tells us that the new capabilities allowed them to do strategic level things which their previous weapons could not.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, akd said:

This seems problematic:

It seems so!  We've been focused on refuseniks, which definitely has been a widely seen problem for Russia, but now they seem to have a desertion problem.  Code 500... interesting.

Steve

[billbindc]

2 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Think about it this way.  In a couple of weeks Ukraine knocked out a dozen ammo supply dumps and a couple of HQs.  It did this with HIMARS and 155 weapons.  Don't you think it would have done this with it's previous weaponry if it could have?  That tells us that the new capabilities allowed them to do strategic level things which their previous weapons could not.

Steve

I was making this point in a discussion elsewhere yesterday: Russian masses of dumb arty being fired out of increasingly worn out tubes is an incredibly inefficient way to project combat power and getting more inefficient by the round. Ukrainian HIMARS/155 with American ISR is an incredibly efficient way to project combat power and is getting even more efficient by attacking the supply and command structure of the Russian Army. It is a different war without those systems. 

[sburke]

28 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

So, yeah, practically without the superior intel US provides the difference wouldn't be that big. I'm not sure RU sat are that primitive though, they have been tracking weapon delivery from Poland to Ukraine and hitting them with Kalibr for months now.  

Can you show some data on that as it is a frequent unsubstantiated claim.  We do know about the damage to civilian infrastructure that Russian claims as military installations. As to the state of Russia's army I think that speaks for itself.  They have an army it just isn't very good and getting worse.  If you want a little proof that intel is making a difference.

Confirmed dead

Andrei Sukhovetsky, Deputy Commander of the 41st Combined Arms Army
MG Vladimir Frolov, deputy commander of 8th Guard CAA, Southern military district
LTG Kutuzov. He was shadow commander of DPR "army" (1st Army Corps of DPR People's miltia)

Claimed Dead

MG Andrey Kolesnikov, Russia’s 29th Combined Arms Army commander
Major-general Oleg Mitiayev, commander of 150th motor-rifle division 
LTG Yakov Rezantsev, Russia’s 49th CAA commander, in Chornobaivka near Kherson
Major General Simonov Deputy chief of Electronic Warfare Troops of Armed Forces of Russian Federation
Major-General Nasbulin, Chief of Staff of Russia’s 22nd Army Corps 

Lieutenant General Roman Berdnikov Commander of the Russian Federation’s 29th Army

Seriously wounded

Major General Serhiy Nirkov Chief of Staff - Deputy Commander of the 35th Combined Arns Army
Major General Andriy Serytsky Chief of Staff - Deputy Commander of the 36th Combined Arms Army 

Edited July 22, 2022 by sburke

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, The_Capt said:

The AD problem with the HIMARS as I understand it is the high trajectory.  The ATACMS has a altitude ceiling of 160,000 feet according to wiki (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MGM-140_ATACMS).  And I have it an some authority that the GLMRS goes above 60,000 feet.  Trying to hit what is a basically a high trajectory ballistic missile on the way down is very difficult - an 80% intercept rate is pretty dubious.  I suspect the Russians have not bagged any GMLRS or Russian social media would be all over it.  In fact, have we seen faked HIMARS intercepts yet?  If the Russians were capable of intercepting at 80% there should be GMLRS missile parts all over the countryside. 

As to 57mm guns...good luck.  A quick calc here (https://www.omnicalculator.com/physics/terminal-velocity#:~:text=How do I find terminal,drag coefficient and projected area.) has the terminal velocity of a 500kg GMLRS (warhead is 500lbs alone so guessing on additional body weight minus fuel) in and around mach 2.4 (used streamlined shape and area of about .3m based on listed diameter of 24 inches - it is like they designed the thing to come in really fast).  More here, but I am always careful with these: https://jaesan-aero.blogspot.com/2022/03/few-ballistic-missile-analysis-w_18.html 

So basically you have (for ATACMS, GLMLRS is going to be slightly different) a very small diameter streamlined missile coming down from over 18-50kms up at a very high trajectory, and they want to try and hit it with another bullet.

And more importantly... Russia doesn't have such systems on hand, therefore talk about what they might be able to do about HIMARS is all academic.  For all that it matters, they could simply say this...

[Beleg85]

 

Haiduk

That was the strike we talked about. Look how they are running, really nice destruction for 2 small kamikaze drones. Unforrunatelly missed several meters. Overall- not great, not terrible (given the circumstances).

 

Edited July 22, 2022 by Beleg85

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, Grigb said:

Murz is preparing for the possibility of visiting a prison due to the recent complaint. What is really interesting is his link to the report about LDNR armies state he wrote with his colleague in 2019. FYI @Battlefront.com here is the page and link.

Quote regarding tanks (and why RU Nats in fact expected big tank losses)

Great post!  Thanks.

Nice to see admission of all the losses suffered by the Russian/DLPR side at Debaltsevo.  I said at the time the battle was happening that it was a sign of things not going well for Russia.  It was, in fact, one of the major influences on my thinking that if Russia invaded in full that it would be defeated. 

In fact, Debaltsevo was similar to Severodonetsk/Lysychansk.  In both the Russians invested a lot of time and energy to gain very little ground.  It suffered massive casualties and yet did not defeat the enemy's forces, which were able to withdraw in relatively good order (more so Lysychansk than Debaltsevo).

Steve

[Grigb]

2 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Great post!  Thanks.

Nice to see admission of all the losses suffered by the Russian/DLPR side at Debaltsevo.  I said at the time the battle was happening that it was a sign of things not going well for Russia.  It was, in fact, one of the major influences on my thinking that if Russia invaded in full that it would be defeated. 

In fact, Debaltsevo was similar to Severodonetsk/Lysychansk.  In both the Russians invested a lot of time and energy to gain very little ground.  It suffered massive casualties and yet did not defeat the enemy's forces, which were able to withdraw in relatively good order (more so Lysychansk than Debaltsevo).

Steve

Yet it was celebrated as great Victory...

[mosuri]

8 hours ago, poesel said:

 But it is simply too expensive for each state to have a universal modern army with all the branches.

You can call me a cynic and a pessimist, but Finland for sure needs to have an independent army. I don't believe for a moment that any French or German soldier would make an appearance here if Putain decided to come over for a visit.

With the "anglo-protestant" countries I have a bit of hope.

[Grigb]

15 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

So, yeah, practically without the superior intel US provides the difference wouldn't be that big.   

Except it is huge regardless of ISR. Maybe I should that RU MLRS are unguided. They claim they have guided versions, but it looks like they exist only at exhibitions. 

 

15 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

 I'm not sure RU sat are that primitive though

Interfax 2014

According to Russian media reports, the Cobalt-M satellite with a mass of 6.6 tons and a period of active existence in orbit for 120 days drops the captured films to Earth in small containers that land in the Orenburg region. Special groups are engaged in the search for containers on the ground. The footage is then sent to the space intelligence center.

At the same time, the interval between photographing and landing a capsule with a photographic film reaches up to a month, which reduces the value of images for operational intelligence.

 

15 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

they have been tracking weapon delivery from Poland to Ukraine and hitting them with Kalibr for months now. 

And in the last few weeks they were tracking and hitting 4 HIMARS + 1 loader. And bought 1 from UKR...

 

15 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

 Unless they more rely on spies for up to date info.  

Girkin once said - around middle of 2000s (when working as FSB counter-intelligence officer and not paramilitary commander) he asked his colleagues what about buying UKR [meaning buying agents there]? We already bought everything was the answer.

After 2014 UKR cleaned a lot of Ru agents. But no doubt a significant amount is still there. 

 

15 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

Its a mystery though if all those thousand of strikes did anything, as Ukraine never reveals anything of storaged destroyed equipment. 

This is the core of the issue - if we start discussing RU capabilities based on RU claims, not knowing whether they really tracked and hit anything, we will end up where many experts were 24 of February. 

[Calamine Waffles]

1 hour ago, panzermartin said:

So, yeah, practically without the superior intel US provides the difference wouldn't be that big. I'm not sure RU sat are that primitive though, they have been tracking weapon delivery from Poland to Ukraine and hitting them with Kalibr for months now. Unless they more rely on spies for up to date info. Its a mystery though if all those thousand of strikes did anything, as Ukraine never reveals anything of storaged destroyed equipment. If hypothetcally it was Ukraine hitting for months with all these weapons aided by US intel, Russia would have no army left.      

Your evidence of this is...?

[Grigb]

34 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

 

Haiduk

That was the strike we talked about. Look how they are running, really nice destruction for 2 small kamikaze drones. Unforrunatelly missed several meters. Overall- not great, not terrible (given the circumstances).

 

There is though one potentialy very good thing - RU setup their shop at nuclear power plant believing UKR cannot hit them there safely. UKR showed they can surgically hit targets there. That will greatly discourage RU from using nuclear power plant as cover.

 

[FancyCat]

53 minutes ago, Grigb said:

On one hand it smells like dumb disinfo. On other hand RU is RU - Out of all courses of action chose the worst one as the most confusing for enemy. Art of RU War.

Tbh out of decisions to ease the way for a UKR offensive, launching a offensive using 3 supply lines easily able to be cut, maybe the Russian government does have some Ukrainian sympathisers......

Also thank God for Poland. A bit surprising for Russia probably, hoping Polish-Ukrainian enmity would win out over hatred of Russia but thankfully buried and hopefully permanently with gusto and reflection on both sides.

This is a lot of money for defense needs, Poland getting some monies from US or EU (in the form of paying for shipments to UKR?) ?

While NATO ISR is amazing, let's not underscore UKR underground networks.

 

[Harmon Rabb]

Putin added some more names to his naughty list.

Looks like most European countries are on it.

Edited July 22, 2022 by Harmon Rabb

[Grigb]

3 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

While NATO ISR is amazing, let's not underscore UKR underground networks.

Quote from Murz report

Quote

The enemy's successes in subversive activities at railway junctions in the DPR were not advertised and practically did not get into the media. The explosion of the bridge on the Lugansk - Krasny Luch road on May 21, 2018, very sharply indicated both the presence of skilled enemy saboteurs on the territory and the absence of any possibility for the Republics to cover all important infrastructure facilities with permanent effective protection.

In March 2019, the transfer to the side of the enemy of the captain of the NM DNR S.Dryuk, the call sign “Breeze”, clearly demonstrated the level of work of the enemy's intelligence service.

It is obvious that the enemy has a very extensive intelligence network in the Republics, is aware of the location of all military facilities, routes of transport to the front line and back, is aware of personnel issues and issues of combat readiness of our units. Once again, we have reason to believe that the enemy is aware of all the facts and patterns given in the report, otherwise we would not have considered their open publication possible.

The most hilarious part

Quote

The enemy's agents, embedded in the command staff of the NM corps, more than a year ago managed to place specialized software on the computer of the head of the intelligence of the 2nd AK NM LNR, which gave the enemy the opportunity to get acquainted with the current documentation of the intelligence of the 2nd AK, including the work of the UAV company of the 2nd AK, almost in real time. Some of this information, including photos of Russian UAVs at a “demonstration” held on the territory of the Transpele complex in Lugansk, was posted to the public.

Both sides have extensive networks in the region. 

[FancyCat]

On one hand, Greens have the worst stance on nuclear power, on the other hand, their stances on Ukraine are quite hawkish, but looks like they can bend dogma towards reality.

On one hand, I dislike strongly the need by Germany to slow approach their Ukraine military assistance, on the other, as long as they keep the UKR economy and government afloat with money at least, and maintaining some sort of anti-Russia, pro-UKR stance, letting them get their gas from Russia is fair enough. Russian money is worthless if it can't buy them military equipment and it cannot be underscored that the UKR economy is wrecked completely, and that EU funds are essential for keeping the country afloat economically while they fight the Russians.

 

 

[Grigb]

For alternative view here is CIT assessment that Operational Pause is not finished yet

• In comparison with April and May, Russia's offensives look less large-scale
• we do not know how many combat-ready reserves both sides have.
• RU is forming third army corps at the Mulino and volunteer battalions in all regions of Russia
• There is no indication that Russia has somehow moved globally to the next stage of the attack

Quote

We agree that in comparison with April and May, Russia's offensives look less large-scale. However, we do not know how many combat-ready reserves both sides have. We see the formation of the third army corps at the Mulino training ground in the Nizhny Novgorod region and the gathering of volunteer battalions in all regions of Russia. At the same time, there are calculations by the Ukrainian side that Russia spent about 60% of the missiles, but this is unconfirmed information. Ukraine also continues to receive weapons.

We are inclined to believe that the operational pause has not ended yet. There is some progress in certain areas, for example, in Seversky, but we do not see that Russia has somehow moved globally to the next stage of the attack. We also doubt that Russia will ever be able to capture the entire Donetsk region, up to the administrative borders. On the other hand, we are not yet ready to assert that Ukraine is now capable of a large-scale counteroffensive.

 

[Haiduk]

1 hour ago, Beleg85 said:

 

Haiduk

That was the strike we talked about. Look how they are running, really nice destruction for 2 small kamikaze drones. Unforrunatelly missed several meters. Overall- not great, not terrible (given the circumstances).

 

On the photos, which I posted yesterday were seen soft fuel tanks near the burned canteen. Looks like explosion of the drone set fire one of theese tanks. Also at least damaged Grad (direct hit in the cabine, but no fire). 

[panzermartin]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

Nope, no truth

Oh, but it absolutely was a game changer for three reasons:

1.  Ukraine was running out of 152mm shells, so the addition of 155s means it can keep up its artillery usage instead of it declining to nothing.  That right there is a "game changer".

2.  The quality of the new systems means that tactically Ukraine can engage targets at further ranges with more safety than with the legacy systems.  This might not be a "game changer", but it certainly is making a noticeable improvement.

3.  The systems can fire PGMs which their old 152mm systems could not.  This absolutely is a "game changer" because important targets that previously couldn't be reliably hit are now being struck.

Posts already made to show you what the difference is, so I won't repeat that stuff in detail.  Suffice to say there's a qualitative difference between Russia's ability to strike stuff and what HIMARS can do.  Russia tries to strike something and they generally hit something else, like a school or a shopping mall.  Ukraine doesn't have the same problems with HIMARS.  If they aim at something they hit it, almost guaranteed.  Plus, Ukraine only needs to fire one or a couple of HIMARS to destroy something, Russia has to saturate the target for even a hope of hitting.

And like the 152mm ammo, Ukraine has been running low on their own stocks of long range rockets so this is a substitute.  A vastly superior substitute.

Think about it this way.  In a couple of weeks Ukraine knocked out a dozen ammo supply dumps and a couple of HQs.  It did this with HIMARS and 155 weapons.  Don't you think it would have done this with it's previous weaponry if it could have?  That tells us that the new capabilities allowed them to do strategic level things which their previous weapons could not.

Steve

Yes I understand the change that brought and the unseen before capabilities they bring to the Ukrainians. Russians really felt it no doubt. But I was thinking that so far it's still like the German wunderwaffe equivalent. Me 262, V2 were unmatched but not in sufficient numbers to alter the actual strategic balance. In my opinion Ukraine faces a gigantic challenge of training and shifting its army in a few months from Soviet to NATO, while constantly under russian harassment and manpower bleed. I think this hasn't happened before in history? But you could probably prove me wrong. 

Russia is still firmly occupying a large part of Ukraine, its still destroying UA assets and infrastructure each passing day, and every new territory gained is hard to take back with no proper combined arms units. Important :The only side that has demonstrated ability to conduct a successful (albeit a costly one) combined arms offensive and grab land is Russia. The Himars are great but they feel like partisan actions and the tactical plan on which they are presumably connected (Kherson offensive) is not yet in sight. Russia will find some workarounds with the storage ultimately unless they utter competent and living in a different planet, the one that noone has long range missiles to hit them back. I guess they were living in that planet for some months now. 

I disagree though that every russian strike so far is spray and pray. They have fired thousands of Kalibrs, Iskanders, airborne missiles etc with (not US/NATO standard) but very decent accuracy . Apart from the dumb mass arty they love so much for its simplicity, they still do have a superior ability to accurately reach long range targets compared to Ukraine with a variety of air, ground and naval platforms. 

Edited July 22, 2022 by panzermartin

[panzermartin]

1 hour ago, Grigb said:

According to Russian media reports, the Cobalt-M satellite with a mass of 6.6 tons and a period of active existence in orbit for 120 days drops the captured films to Earth in small containers that land in the Orenburg region. Special groups are engaged in the search for containers on the ground. The footage is then sent to the space intelligence center.

OK I laughed at this. I still find it hard to believe a country with so much investment in space technology, military satellites etc doesn't have less primitive Intel gathering. 

[Zeleban]

3 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

Да, я понимаю те перемены, которые они принесли, и невиданные прежде возможности, которые они приносят украинцам. Русские это действительно почувствовали, без сомнения. А я то думал, что пока это еще как немецкий аналог вундерваффе. Me 262, V2 не имели себе равных, но не в достаточном количестве, чтобы изменить фактический стратегический баланс. По моему мнению, перед Украиной стоит гигантская задача по обучению и переводу своей армии за несколько месяцев из советской в натовскую, в то время как Россия постоянно подвергается преследованиям и потери живой силы. Думаете, такого еще не было в истории? Но вы, вероятно, могли бы доказать, что я ошибаюсь. 

Россия по-прежнему прочно оккупирует большую часть Украины, каждый день уничтожает активы и инфраструктуру ВСУ, и каждую новую завоеванную территорию трудно вернуть без надлежащих общевойсковых подразделений. Химары молодцы но ощущаются как партизанские действия и тактического плана на котором они предположительно связаны (Херсонское наступление) пока не видно. Россия найдет какие-то обходные пути с хранилищем в конечном счете, если только они не скажут компетентно и живут на другой планете, той, что ни у кого нет ракет большой дальности, чтобы нанести им ответный удар. Думаю, они жили на этой планете уже несколько месяцев. 

Однако я не согласен с тем, что до сих пор каждая российская забастовка — это распыление и молись. Они выпустили тысячи «Калибров», «Искандеров», бортовых ракет и т. д. с (не стандартом США/НАТО), но с очень приличной точностью. Помимо тупой массы, которую они так любят за простоту, у них все же есть превосходная способность точно поражать дальние цели по сравнению с Украиной с различными воздушными, наземными и морскими платформами. 

in order to effectively hit something in the far rear of the enemy, effective reconnaissance of the target is needed. Apparently, the entire intelligence network of Russia is a corrupt mechanism for stealing the funds invested in it. Look at top-level agents like Medvedchuk

[danfrodo]

38 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

On one hand, Greens have the worst stance on nuclear power, on the other hand, their stances on Ukraine are quite hawkish, but looks like they can bend dogma towards reality.

On one hand, I dislike strongly the need by Germany to slow approach their Ukraine military assistance, on the other, as long as they keep the UKR economy and government afloat with money at least, and maintaining some sort of anti-Russia, pro-UKR stance, letting them get their gas from Russia is fair enough. Russian money is worthless if it can't buy them military equipment and it cannot be underscored that the UKR economy is wrecked completely, and that EU funds are essential for keeping the country afloat economically while they fight the Russians.

 

 

reduction of speed limit is the compromise they chose?   Wouldn't increased investment in solar/wind/other have been a better tradeoff?  seems rather odd, small effect.

We're between rock & hard place.  If we need to displace fossil fuels ASAP, nuclear is probably req'd.  

[panzermartin]

1 hour ago, Calamine Waffles said:

Your evidence of this is...?

No concrete proof and I wouldn't trust the numerous Russian claims . The only one who could reveal concrete evidence (Ukraine) will never do so. But Russians must be hitting something these months apart from schools and supermarkets.