How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[dan/california]

2 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

I would expect some raids over the Dnieper, perhaps even on Nuclear Plant or Kahkovka. Nature of the river seems perfect for such raids, especially during summer.

When detailed history of the use of Special Forces in this war will become known it will be undoubtedly epic, and probably influence thinking about such operation during conventional conflicts even in NATO armies.

Yep, I know, but even terrains around Zolotye looked very nice from hiker's perspective. Plus Donbas and Eastern/Southern Ukraine in general is actually very diverse from anthropological and historical side- my friends archeologists were always very  enamoured with the country's archeological remains.

one of the things that has really stuck with me was some Ukrainian soldiers digging a trench, and finding bits and pieces of gear from WW2, because the terrain hadn't really changed, and made sense to emplace their both times.

2 hours ago, Letter from Prague said:

With regards to EU unity. Right now, the pro-Russian voices are saying "Russia is still advancing, Ukraine is still losing, the best you can hope for is a stalemate, there is no point in extending this."

Ukraine succeeding in taking something significant back would do a lot to shut those up. This is another reason why Kherson is really important. I'm sure the Russians know as well, at least the ones that aren't stupid (Girkin might be a monster but he ain't dumb).

No Girkin is the smart, bitter kind who wants to write his name into the history books in blood. It is darkly amusing that he is named after a miniature pickle.

1 hour ago, Harmon Rabb said:

Disappointing news.

I clearly need to annoy my Congressperson and Senators AGAIN! 

31 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

We speculated on this way back - high resolution find, infiltrate, isolate and kill in detail…repeat.  Bite sized chunks, all the while hammering deep high value targets to disrupt logistics and dislocate reserves. 21st century manoeuvre through attrition, distributed mass, precision fires - fog eating snow.

Now let’s see how it works

The first effort at the northerly part of the Kherson from seems to be going well, or better than that. At a minimum the Russian in village unpronounceable are getting the experience of being shelled from three sides. In the best case scenario they really are cut off.

[Bearstronaut]

2 hours ago, Letter from Prague said:

With regards to EU unity. Right now, the pro-Russian voices are saying "Russia is still advancing, Ukraine is still losing, the best you can hope for is a stalemate, there is no point in extending this."

Ukraine succeeding in taking something significant back would do a lot to shut those up. This is another reason why Kherson is really important. I'm sure the Russians know as well, at least the ones that aren't stupid (Girkin might be a monster but he ain't dumb).

The western pro-Russians will come up with some other bull to explain away Ukrainian victories just like they did with the Battle of Kyiv. I’ve heard “oh it was just a feint to draw the Ukrainians away from Luhansk and Donetsk” so many times. It never gets any less ridiculous.

[theFrizz]

3 hours ago, Cederic said:

Cossacks don't surf!

 

+1 

[cesmonkey]

51 minutes ago, dan/california said:

I clearly need to annoy my Congressperson and Senators AGAIN! 

I wish Rob Portman was my Senator. Every week he speaks from the Senate floor urging the administration to do more for Ukraine by expediting the delivery of military aid they are requesting.

https://www.portman.senate.gov/newsroom/press-releases/portman-colleagues-ask-defense-department-expedite-critical-military-aid

As he points out, Congress authorized $20 billion for military assistance to Ukraine in late May, in addition to the lend-lease act which appears to still be unused.  The U.S. looks to delivering around $2 billion of military aid per month, and fairly reluctantly the weapons that Ukraine is requesting. 

[chrisl]

8 hours ago, panzermartin said:

OK I laughed at this. I still find it hard to believe a country with so much investment in space technology, military satellites etc doesn't have less primitive Intel gathering. 

The best info I've been able to find is that Russia launched their last film-drop satellite in 2015.  They currently have only two electro-optical satellites in orbit, both past their design lifetime, and which may or may not still be functioning.  They're literally 40 years behind - the US launched its first electro-optical satellite in 1976.  They also have no history of launching synthetic aperture radars, which would let them see through clouds.  When you see how few ISR assets they have in space, it's much more obvious why they did the anti-satellite "test" last fall that made a big mess of debris: they may have had nothing at all at risk if their two optical satellites aren't very effective.  And given that they don't seem to be able to make optical array sensors for their own UAVs, they probably aren't making them for their satellites and may have very marginal sensors on them.

The Russian space industry is good at making big things out of lots of metal and with lots of propellant - the Soyuz is one of the most reliable launch vehicles in history - but they've got nothing when it comes to electronics fab, and that's what enables the mass ISR capability.

[FancyCat]

5 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Оh, this is just patriotic legend Bohdana, of course participated, but Russians fled from island not because of single howitzer ) 

Oh certainly but the point stands, if Russia had a navy and air force worth of resisting NATO as all would assume before the invasion, certainly Snake Island should not have fallen.

ATACMS, didn't we stop production of it? And if Ukraine starts using it, it would look bad if we suddenly have to cut off supply mid way thru the war.

[MikeyD]

Moscova and its S-300F missiles was Snake Island's (and much of the Black Sea's) air defense umbrella. It hurt them a LOT to lose that ship.

[Suleyman]

I’m going to go on record and say this war is gonna end as a stalemate. Wish it would be over already, a few HIMARs is not going to finish this war. Either go all in with the support or don’t, we’re already indirectly at war with Russia if our weapons have killed them. 

If there is a diplomatic way to end this war I think now would be the time, no more people have to die. If it continues going like this it’s just gonna be minor Russian gains in Donbas, heavy attrition and more civvies dead. Just some thoughts

[dan/california]

58 minutes ago, Suleyman said:

I’m going to go on record and say this war is gonna end as a stalemate. Wish it would be over already, a few HIMARs is not going to finish this war. Either go all in with the support or don’t, we’re already indirectly at war with Russia if our weapons have killed them. 

If there is a diplomatic way to end this war I think now would be the time, no more people have to die. If it continues going like this it’s just gonna be minor Russian gains in Donbas, heavy attrition and more civvies dead. Just some thoughts

!00% disagree, Himars has nearly shattered Russian logistics. Their forces on the west side of the Dnipro are half a step from being hostages as opposed to a military force, and the Russians are stalled and bleeding everywhere else. The Ukrainians are just getting revved up to start pushing them back. The Russians can choose to stop dying at any time, just leave. If they try to stay they get to bleed, and bleed, and bleed, until they give up and go home after all. The only thing Putin is getting out of this is zinc coffins and debt.

Edited July 23, 2022 by dan/california
dropped a word

[Taranis]

Hi guys. Just a quick reminder to invite you to look FIRMS. Under the last 24 hours, we clearly see that the Kherson sector is the focal point and that Donbass is much less subject to Russian fire than before. Many shootings take place in the areas occupied by the Russians south of the Dnieper

https://firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/map/#d:2022-07-22..2022-07-23,2022-07-22;@35.2,47.6,7z

[MikeyD]

With the heat wave rolling across Europe its hard to tell which of those read dots are, you know, fires. Unless there are battles raging along the Ukraine Romania border that we don't know about.

[Taranis]

5 minutes ago, MikeyD said:

With the heat wave rolling across Europe its hard to tell which of those read dots are, you know, fires. Unless there are battles raging along the Ukraine Romania border that we don't know about.

Yes, I agree, you have to take all this with grain of salt and that each point is not necessarily a bombardment but I personally think that the presence of so much fire in these areas (Kherson area) represents a kind of duel of artillery that is underway.

And another proof that the russian Donbass offensive is nearly dead (actually)

Edited July 23, 2022 by Taranis

[Grigb]

6 hours ago, The_Capt said:

We speculated on this way back - high resolution find, infiltrate, isolate and kill in detail…repeat.  Bite sized chunks, all the while hammering deep high value targets to disrupt logistics and dislocate reserves. 21st century manoeuvre through attrition, distributed mass, precision fires - fog eating snow.

Now let’s see how it works

Yes, I just wanted to add that we have now almost official confirmation of UKR plans. And also wanted to repeat that initially it will not look like much. I believe we will have discussions in future that nothing is happening. So, I am going to reference this my post.

[FancyCat]

1 hour ago, Suleyman said:

I’m going to go on record and say this war is gonna end as a stalemate. Wish it would be over already, a few HIMARs is not going to finish this war. Either go all in with the support or don’t, we’re already indirectly at war with Russia if our weapons have killed them. 

If there is a diplomatic way to end this war I think now would be the time, no more people have to die. If it continues going like this it’s just gonna be minor Russian gains in Donbas, heavy attrition and more civvies dead. Just some thoughts

Meh, the USSR and China both contributed way more to proxy conflicts than the U.S. AA batteries, pilots fought in Korea and Vietnam and we can quite well argue they were not at war due to direct evidence of Soviet pilots manning aircraft in Korea.

The final piece of the puzzle is whether Ukraine can mount a offensive and retake territory. If one wants a short-term answer, I think the deadline is the Fall mud/rain? I don't remember the term for it but Kherson needs to be retaken by then to substantially indicate it's ability to mount offensive actions and regain all of Ukraine.

[Aragorn2002]

2 hours ago, Suleyman said:

I’m going to go on record and say this war is gonna end as a stalemate. Wish it would be over already, a few HIMARs is not going to finish this war. Either go all in with the support or don’t, we’re already indirectly at war with Russia if our weapons have killed them. 

If there is a diplomatic way to end this war I think now would be the time, no more people have to die. If it continues going like this it’s just gonna be minor Russian gains in Donbas, heavy attrition and more civvies dead. Just some thoughts

I agree this war will end as a stalemate, but not this year and perhaps not even next year. And I don't believe in a diplomatic solution. The Russians want to destroy the Ukraine, or at least weaken it so much that they can destroy it anytime they want in the future. That's no peace, that's postponed execution for the Ukrainian nation. As long as the Ukrainians want to fight, we must support them with all we can and make the Russians suffer. At the same time Ukrainians will also suffer, but that's their call. They are not fighting for a piece of land where the majority is Russian or for their right to belong to the West, but they are fighting for their very survival as a people and a nation. That's what folks who are talking about a diplomatic solution don't seem to understand. This is a fight to the death. And it must be the death of many Russian soldiers and with that the death of Russia's ability to wage war and inflict terror upon their neighbours. I agree that our support must be intensified, even if that means taking risks with our own safety. Ukraine must hold on, at ALL costs. The costs for the West don't interest me at all. Economical crisis, inflation, energy shortage? Welcome to the new reality, where finally the bill for all those cheap words about democracy, environment and freedom is presented to us all. Personally I would gladly give up my holidays, my second car and all of my luxury to get rid of the Russian menace once and for all. The price of facing an encouraged and vengeful 'Novorussiya' will be far greater than all that. So, yes, keep the Russians bleeding and the Ukrainians fighting. They have bloody good reasons for that. Remenber the Holodomor for instance. And let us keep our cheap Western lamenting for peace at all costs to ourselves. If I was an Ukrainian soldier, fighting in a destroyed and suffering country, I would vomit on that.

In the mean time and I'm ashamed to say it, Ukraine is buying us precious time to rearm and prepare for war, that will come in some form or shape. We must consider Ukraine to be part of the West, which it is, and act accordingly. By the end of this year Western Europe can't be blackmailed by Russian oil or gas anymore and we can go to the next level. Unlimited support and weapons for Ukraine and unlimited sanctions against Putin. Payback time.

Edited July 23, 2022 by Aragorn2002

[Aragorn2002]

25 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

Meh, the USSR and China both contributed way more to proxy conflicts than the U.S. AA batteries, pilots fought in Korea and Vietnam and we can quite well argue they were not at war due to direct evidence of Soviet pilots manning aircraft in Korea.

 

Exactly. That's why the West is far too cautious as far as I'm concerned. More NATO involvement will show Putin that we will never accept his plans for Ukraine. His lies won't change and the stupid Russian masses are already convinced they are fighting NATO anyway. So send those pilots. And send heavy tanks and jet fighters. And promise Ukraine NATO membership. 

[Grigb]

1 hour ago, Suleyman said:

If there is a diplomatic way to end this war I think now would be the time, no more people have to die. If it continues going like this it’s just gonna be minor Russian gains in Donbas, heavy attrition and more civvies dead. Just some thoughts

Except murdering of UKR people would not stop. As soon as fighting stops new RU appear and a lot of UKR on occupied will either die or will heavily regret that they are not dead. 

This is how it was in 2014. 

Quote

Torture conveyer

- the only documented "crucified boy" [infamous meme of that war - RU propagandists created fake that AFU soldiers executed a Russian kid in underwear by crusification]  of the summer of 2014 is again the work of Pan ataman [Kozytsin]

, who in early May, having pissing himself out of fear (after Putin's appeal on the topic of postponing the referendum) tortured the local population in the Anthracite Regional State Administration in a conveyer way for literally just a suspicious word said on the street. Typical for the militia of that period, espionage mania got not only a truly Cossack [big] scope, but also, so to speak, reached new depths of thoroughness. I watched this torture conveyor with beatings, "burying alive" and the continuation of fun in the basement, just at the moment when Pan ataman decided that I am a Ukrainian spy.

Maybe he liked my branded Leatherman [knife], a gift from my future wife, maybe a Runbo X5 [rugged phone], maybe something else from the gear. I do not know the reaction of the ataman to the word "brunzuletka". Of course, they didn't show me any incriminating evidence, they just started beating me, and when it turned out that I didn't react to the beatings in any way, I didn't even scream, unlike mirnyak [civilian], who screamed a good obscenity from blows to the ribs with boots, apparently they decided that I was "under drugs" and came up with the idea of crucifying me on the window grate leaning against the wall. Right in the hallway. Next to the armory, so as not to put an additional sentry to look after me.

[Removed description of torture]

Photos of the consequences, taken about a week after, already in Moscow, I then posted. The left arm suffered less, it was "saved" by the fact that the left knee took over part of the weight, the right arm was very bad, but more or less recovered, although not without relapses. I'm gradually losing my left knee, but these are just details.

This whole story is actually about the fact that there was a lot of tortures that summer and then in many places and by many men and of many people, but if someone from the propagandists just wants "antichrists" and any visual inferno [as propaganda sample], then they need to pay attention not to [UKR] right-wingers, but to the native Orthodox Cossacks of ataman Kozitsyn. And only after that to the [UKR] "Tornado Battalion".

Mass Murder

By the way, "the well with corpses" is also a story about Kozitsin. We found at least one such in the "places of military glory", of the now seems dead  [torture] craftsman who served the Ataman and loved to use in a drill [for torture] in his basement. Apparently, they didn't dare to drill my knee after I didn't say anything like that at the crucifixion. It was then, probably, that the thought flashed [through their heads] that I had real documents with a Moscow residence permit on Rublevka [famous Moscow area], and in general it was better to "hand me over to the authorities." Of course, since not everyone was lucky like me, rather the opposite, I, as a Russian, and "a Muscovite who might be searched for," became one of several exceptions. Perhaps also because the ataman, checking on me, decided to call my future wife, and this was the trail that would lead to him. The rest, who are not Muscovites and not Russians... Have I already mentioned the well? Well.

 

You remember this?

This is how it happened in UKR

Quote

- in addition to expropriations of everything that is bad for those who were immediately accused of being scapegoats and further see the previous paragraph, Kozitsyn's Cossacks established a tight "protection" of the entire non-coal economy of the district, which survived the summer of 2014. Even bakeries that baked bread for the banal survival of the remaining population were also protected. The scum acted f*cked to such an extent that one day civilians came to us in "August" asking for help - guys, they say, do something, you have tanks. It turned out that when humanitarian aid (for survival of the poor) arrived to the area the Cossacks showed up at the point of its issuance and ... asked for half of the products for the right to distribute the rest to the poor on their territory. "Otherwise..."
 

 

And you know why RU, like my Buddy, does not like to discuss him? Because the guy was not lone rotten apple. He was an authorized representative of RU state but with plausible deniability of just private person with gang.

Quote

I don't count intra-Cossack "coal wars" as an item, worth mentioning separately, if you don't count random victims.

In general, Ataman collected the whole bouquet [of crimes]. What happened to Pan ataman, who crossed all possible boundaries of infamy, cowardice and fanatic cruelty towards civilians who collaborated with the enemy and so on, so on, so on? Was he shot as Batman [Alexander Bednov] or Mozgovoy?

And no, he was not. He, fearing that some local embittered amateur would shoot him, was taken to the Russian Federation. Where he lives safely, without any criminal cases from the Russian State. Formally, of course, my description [of why I as there] (given after the Russian border guards found me in a closed border zone on May 17) is the reason for the criminal case in the Russian Federation against Kozitsyn and co. In reality, the case will not begin and will not move until I submit an application. And I won't submit it. As I have repeatedly written, I will try to "solve" it out myself.

After the war. During the war, I could have once, if we hadn't missed each other literally for a few hours at Vergulevka [village] during the Debaltseve operation, but alas. I found there only a flock of gray-haired old-timers of the Cossack movement with wide stripes, unsuccessfully searching for "Nikolai Ivanovich" [Kozytsin] in the improvised forward headquarters of 2 AK [Army Corps]. I even walked a little behind them, holding my already more or less revived right hand on the safety of the "Ksyukhi" [AKSU] - in case they find him after all. I walked until I heard how the military officials suggested to the grandfathers, in the most tactful form, of course, to follow Nikolai Ivanovich, whom they had already sent f*ck off a little earlier and he left back to Russia. [His departure] somehow did not caused any complaints at all from the LNR Prosecutor's Office, whose special forces, according to official statements of the LNR authorities, shot Batman [for far less crimes].

   

Now that you know what RU do in real life think about your good intentions. You are actually helping RU. They are suffering because they are not warfighters. They are a bunch of war criminals who prefer murder civilians, robbery and looting. And now they have to fight a real war. The war they never planned to have. Now their victims are killing them. And all they want now is for somebody like you to help them get away from this war back to what they like - murder, torture and robbing.

RU propaganda that inflates their capabilities is dumb but it works duping people like you or @panzermartin into believing in unstoppable RU Juggernaut that you can escape only through surrender. 

[G.I. Joe]

25 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

I agree this war will end as a stalemate, but not this year and perhaps not even next year. And I don't believe in a diplomatic solution. The Russians want to destroy the Ukraine, or at least weaken it so much that they can destroy it anytime they want in the future. That's no peace, that's postponed execution for the Ukrainian nation. As long as the Ukrainians want to fight, we must support them with all we can and make the Russians suffer. At the same time Ukrainians will also suffer, but that's their call. They are not fighting for a piece of land where the majority is Russian or for their right to belong to the West, but they are fighting for their very survival as a people and a nation. That's what folks who are talking about a diplomatic solution don't seem to understand. This is a fight to the death. And it must be the death of many Russian soldiers and with that the death of Russia's ability to wage war and inflict terror upon their neighbours. I agree that our support must be intensified, even if that means taking risks with our own safety. Ukraine must hold on, at ALL costs. The costs for the West don't interest me at all. Economical crisis, inflation, energy shortage? Welcome to the new reality, where finally the bill for all those cheap words about democracy, environment and freedom is presented to us all. Personally I would gladly give up my holidays, my second car and all of my luxury to get rid of the Russian menace once and for all. The price of facing an encouraged and vengeful 'Novorussiya' will be far greater than all that. So, yes, keep the Russians bleeding and the Ukrainians fighting. They have bloody good reasons for that. Remenber the Holodomor for instance. And let us keep our cheap Western lamenting for peace at all costs to ourselves. If I was an Ukrainian soldier, fighting in a destroyed and suffering country, I would vomit on that.

+1 (out of reactions again)

Indeed...as in World War II and the Cold War, this is a fight to the finish between democracy and totalitarianism. And for the sake of all of humanity, democracy must win.

[Haiduk]

Huge missile strike this morning on Kirovohrad oblast. 8 Kalibrs and 5 Kh-22 were launched at airfield Kanatove and "Ukrainian Railroad" company power supply facility. There is no information how much missiles could reach targets, reportedly on airfield one serviceman was killed and nine wounded. Also two securities were killed on railroad facility. The part of Kropyvnytskyi city without elecricity now

Edited July 23, 2022 by Haiduk

[Grigb]

RUMINT from unanimous RU commander regarding current CB

 

Quote

The accuracy of the UKR arty in the KBB (counter-battery warfare) mode is really better than ours. This is due to the fact that the AFU massively received and have already been mastered by personnel American KBB AN/TPQ-36 and AN/TPQ-48 radars. This thing is very harmful to us. The radar sees our projectile or mine [mortar] in flight. According to its trajectory, it immediately calculates the coordinates of our firing position from which the projectile was fired. The data is immediately transmitted to the UKR battery via the data transmission network. 30-50 seconds after our first shot, a response is flying to us. Very accurate. We are fighting these KBB. Either we physically destroy them or try to suppress them [implying EW]. It is difficult to suppress them, because it is difficult to get into their directional pattern. For KBB, we use drones. [It] equalizes the odds a little. But not completely. The stations themselves are very compact:

He continues with comments about RU similar equipment

 

Quote

Zoopark-1M - inanimate ****. Rostec has been pushing it for several years. Couldn't push it through. The military blocked it to death. Penicillin is not so unambiguous. Therefore, I will not write about it. The fact is troops have neither one nor another. And compare the dimensions:

You can't drag such a fool [big thing] onto the roof and hide it in the bushes. In the current war, she will live a day or two. Not more. Any small fragment in the mirror and it becomes useless hardware.

By the way, RU sorrow state of CB radars was confirmed by Naval "Girkin" (Klimov) he said [checking my notes]:

• [Klimov] Claim USSR had difficulty making CB radar capable of detecting artillery shell (not mortar one) [in flight]. The majority were detecting explosions (splash) so were useful only for fire adjustment.
• Normal CB radar USSR produced only before collapsing (Zoopark 1 in RU, Zoopark 2 in UKR). However, according to real world experience, it is considered a failure. 

It is so bad that Klimov said that the only quick solution is to modify radars of Tor and Pantsir.

P.S. RU military power is comparable to West only in RU propaganda and minds of naive ignorant people (see my description of how RU propaganda dupe people)

[poesel]

4 hours ago, Suleyman said:

I’m going to go on record and say this war is gonna end as a stalemate.

Technically, you will be right. Neither will Russia occupy Ukraine nor will Ukraine march into Moscow.
Anything but that is a stalemate.

The big question is _when_ is this war going to end. 'When' as in 'under which conditions'.
Currently, neither side is under enough hurt to accept the enemy's conditions. So both sides hurt each other (UA bombing depots, RA bombing buildings) in the hope to crush the other's spirit.
Other option is to occupy enough territory to declare a victory (RA Donbass & Crimea, for UA, not sure what would be enough) and making sure to keep it.

Another non-military option would be a coup d'état in Moscow. My personal favorite as it would be the fastest way to end this war.

[Aragorn2002]

19 minutes ago, poesel said:

Technically, you will be right. Neither will Russia occupy Ukraine nor will Ukraine march into Moscow.
Anything but that is a stalemate.

The big question is _when_ is this war going to end. 'When' as in 'under which conditions'.
Currently, neither side is under enough hurt to accept the enemy's conditions. So both sides hurt each other (UA bombing depots, RA bombing buildings) in the hope to crush the other's spirit.
Other option is to occupy enough territory to declare a victory (RA Donbass & Crimea, for UA, not sure what would be enough) and making sure to keep it.

Another non-military option would be a coup d'état in Moscow. My personal favorite as it would be the fastest way to end this war.

I don't see that happen, to be honest. Putin has an iron grip on the Russian society and will murder any conspirator before he even starts to think about conspiring. Even more important is that he's more popular than ever.

This is a war of attrition in all respects. And a game of patience. Patience to see the tables turn at the front, patience to see the effects of the sanctions on the Russian economy and patience to adjust ourselves to the new reality of a Cold War. Attrition and patience, those are the key words. It will get a lot worse, before it gets better.

Edited July 23, 2022 by Aragorn2002

[chuckdyke]

2 hours ago, Aragorn2002 said:

I agree this war will end as a stalemate,

Armistice and a generation from now they will finish it. Like WW1 the cause Europe imploded history repeats always. 

[panzermartin]

12 hours ago, The_Capt said:

It is an incoherent video with a bunch of weirdly disconnected shots from 21 Mar - about the time the entire Northern Russian front collapsed.  That was a BM-21 as far as I can tell and that last hit on the shopping mall was a ballistic missile of some sort.  The ability of Russian missile to strike targets they can pull from Google Earth is not a clear indicator of superiority in anything.  Yes, they have a lot of long range missiles that can hit static target the size of the building...so what?  How does that lend to leap in logic that the Russians and Ukraine have deep strike parity somehow?

Type in "Russian Ammo Dump explosion" into You Tube and see what comes up.  Type it into Google and you get this:

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukrainian-military-strikes-with-western-arms-disrupt-russian-supply-lines-2022-07-14/

I could post this and reference stuff posted on this thread all day long.

So let's talk "grounded in reality".  We have reports of over 30 operational high value targets being hit in Russian depth over the last couple weeks.  The Russians are being forced to react.  Their offensive operations are slow and small gains, and very costly - to the point they had to invoke a week+ long operational pause after taking a few acres in the Donbas.  UA c-btty seems to be working.  The Russian offensive has the hallmarks of stalling, just like it did in phase 1, and now we are hearing speculation on a UA Kherson offensive - after they hammered that bridge with PGM, to the point the Russians have to restrict traffic.

We have debated Russian morale and are looking for indicators one way or the other as to where it is pointing.  None of it is pointing to "good news" for the Russian system.  In fact it appears kinda sick, if these trends in desertion keep going.  The RA can still attack so they are not out of it yet but getting a weird vibe.  

Look, you want to be "the counter-thinker", cool we definitely need them.  However, come with facts.  We have been pulling assessments in from everywhere and adding our own, if you indeed have one then lay it out.  Right now I am seeing a lot of opinion and one grainy video that is running counter to about the last 200 pages.  Some questions to consider:

- How has Russian deep strike affected the UA operational system?

- How has that erosion supported the achievement of Russian operational and strategic goals.

- How has Russian deep strike affected Centers of Gravity as different levels?

- Have the Russians achieved any operational level superiority beyond massed artillery fires?  Have they eroded UA superiority.

- How has Russian deep strike opened up strategic options spaces?  (it sure as hell has for the UA).

- How has deep strike affected each sides Will?

Now if you can answer those, with some facts or even a credible professional assessment then lets hear em.

 

Look, I find your posts interesting and well thought most of the time and I appreciate your contribution here. But a lot of times you all get carried away. As Haiduk noted its not a grainy video that proves nothing, they were actually multiple MLRS launchers hiding there and were destroyed. (there was also a tiktok video that revealed that before the strike iirc) This is somewhat insulting to the counter argument that some don't even accept a filmed and proven fact. What is left for us who want to challenge the dominant narrative line here? 

I 80% rely on this thread to get my info about the war. I'm not so prone to russian propaganda as @Grigb says . Yes I sometimes visit some pro russian forums as well , but guess what, I challenge them the same way and get bashed "don't listen to UKR Nazi propaganda" . They are much worse than here to be honest

On your points I can't answer in a professional way as I'm not a military pro, as many people here. 

UA has definitely hurt RU logistics with newly acquired hardware no doubt. And it's much easier to do that when your opponent is on the offensive and in a hurry with predicted routes and command hubs. RU has demonstrated the ability to hit long range targets but I never claimed their effectiveness is on par with western standards. They have caused some serious damage though, the Mikolayev and Lviv barrack attacks comes to mind among others. 

But it's true Ukraine is still in the fight despite monthly everyday raids. AA is still up, Artillery is very much active, even UAF is active and this is a loud failure of RU. Lot of this has to do that UA has the huge advantage of having a big supermarket of NATO weaponry that can freely roam and pick what they want most of the times. RU can't compete on this but who can? 

But the actual degree RU has degraded UKR ability to fight is not clearly evident yet Imo. What we know is that most Soviet era stuff has been put out of action or is already expended. Some of it has to do with RU hitting targets deeply in UKR territory for those months. 

The moment of truth of whether the RU has inflicted a serious blow to UA ability to conduct major operations will soon come. Some  are overly confident that they will inevitably degrade and push back the occupiers but I guess we'll have to wait and see. 

[panzermartin]

7 hours ago, chrisl said:

The best info I've been able to find is that Russia launched their last film-drop satellite in 2015.  They currently have only two electro-optical satellites in orbit, both past their design lifetime, and which may or may not still be functioning.  They're literally 40 years behind - the US launched its first electro-optical satellite in 1976.  They also have no history of launching synthetic aperture radars, which would let them see through clouds.  When you see how few ISR assets they have in space, it's much more obvious why they did the anti-satellite "test" last fall that made a big mess of debris: they may have had nothing at all at risk if their two optical satellites aren't very effective.  And given that they don't seem to be able to make optical array sensors for their own UAVs, they probably aren't making them for their satellites and may have very marginal sensors on them.

The Russian space industry is good at making big things out of lots of metal and with lots of propellant - the Soyuz is one of the most reliable launch vehicles in history - but they've got nothing when it comes to electronics fab, and that's what enables the mass ISR capability.

Thanks, that's some very interesting info. If the Russians were indeed in trajectory to clash with NATO all these years they should have invested more in this department. This is a deadly disadvantage if accurate. 

From the state of their army to the sat thing, I have come to the conclusion that there was no actual desire to challenge US/EU hegemony and the Ukrainian coup caught them unprepared. Even this war caught them unprepared and they were clearly forced to conduct with a heavy heart.