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How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?


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1 minute ago, Seedorf81 said:

I still think that there is something very, very, weird going on. Putin either lost his sly, murderous and conniving ruthlessness, or he had something to do with this. 

If Putin did have something to do with this then his regime is hanging by a thread.  If he told Prig to conduct a large scale, public facing mutiny then he must have a) a huge problem he needed solved and b) absolutely no other way of getting it solved.

For example, he could have had Shoigu and Gerasimov removed by FSB on trumped up charges.  And if the MoD tried to stop this from happening, then have Prig's boys mutiny in defense of Putin.  The story would then be that Putin acted decisively against the people responsible for the war's failures, THEY tried to stage a coup, and Russia's loyal patriots came to her defense.  As an added bonus Putin would be able to see who was loyal, who wasn't, and who couldn't figure it out fast enough.

Situation A (what actually happened) went straight to armed conflict, Situation B (what I just laid out) might have avoided it without Prig.  In either case Prig could have been involved physically in the same way, but the PR story for Situation B is vastly superior to Situation A.

Steve

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It's interesting to see what Kadyrovs TikTok Army is going to do now. They were apparently sent to the Belgorod area to help against the Russian Freedom Army, or what they call themselves, but refused to do much more than take position behind the Russian soldiers that were there.

Utkin told the Chechen TikTok Army something that they possibly didn't like very much. So are they going to take this opportunity to proof that they are real men and good enough soldiers to fight the Wagners or are they going to remain the most well-known TikTok Army?

Edited by BornGinger
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31 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

 

This is so amazingly true, and at some point it has to make the country almost ungovernable, right?

10 minutes ago, Grigb said:

We do have several reports from RU Nats about it.

I thought they would go thru the drained reservoir, the floods disruption of the first belt or two of minefields might have trumped all other considerations.

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I am out of likes!  Shoigu!  Gerasimov!  Send more likes! 

Hopefully this bizarre escapade in near term will cause supply shortages and devastate RU morale at the front, and at home.  It also shows everyone that Putin is not omnipotent and omnipresent and that power is there for the taking.  Knives out, Comrades!

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The big question next is - aside from what Prig is actually going to do overnight and tomorrow - is how Gerasimov and Shoigu are going to react.  Do they reckon they hw d enough loyal military to refuse to be sacked? Are they prepared to fight their fate rather than go down quietly? How many people actually support Prig and how many loathe him?

There are other parties affected by the coup that haven't showed their hands yet.

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4 minutes ago, akd said:

7 aircraft down and Wagner out of Ukraine.  The Battle of Moscow was a resounding victory for Ukraine.

Poor Igor:

Putin is now puppet Tsar.

Looking at the potential upside, a complete collapse of the Russian front with forces being split 50/50 between loyalist and coupist to a more probable several days of bloody fighting, leaving command and supply to the war effort in disarray, I'd say this is among the worst outcomes. Especially now that there will be ruthless and more efficient killers in charge.

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Even if there was some back-room dealings prior to what we know about, things do seem to have spun out of any intended plan or control. The illusion of control is an ominous thing to project, until the wheels come off. These seems like very risky bets, all-around to declare such an end to the festivities.

Mortals, overestimating their abilities- everywhere I look lately.

Edited by benpark
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Other version of agreements

- Wagner and Prigozhyn will be deployed in Belarus under guarantees of Lukashenko to guard Ukrainian and Polish borders. "Kiev began to rejoice early - now they will get 50 000 groupment on own northern borders"

- Shoigu will be removed, more likely he will be presidental plenipotentiary in Syberian Federal District

- Governor of Tula oblast Aleksei Diumin was a main negotiatior and exactly he stopped advance of Wagners. He will be minister of defense.

Зображення

Edited by Haiduk
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Locals of Kherson and on the left bank of Dnipro in Antonivskyi bridge area don't confirm any active actions and river crossing and intensive UKR arty work as this claimed Russian sources, they say today is even more quiet, then in previous day.

Edited by Haiduk
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This is the thing we need to focus on IF the Prig deal is what it seems to be (and I have my doubts about that):

I do not see any way the average Russian, who thinks Alpha Male Dominance is the only thing that matters, will see Putin as anything other than a wet rag doll now.

"I will defend Russia from the traitors and go after them where they hide!"

"On second thought, I'm going to give the traitors everything they want and elevate them in importance.  Then I'm going to return to Moscow to continue making Russia strong and feared around the world!"

Nope, sorry, I don't see this as being a plausible or sustainable outcome.  Putin's done and Prig has got to know that.  Which means if he doesn't see this thing through someone else will.

Steve

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3 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

If Putin did have something to do with this then his regime is hanging by a thread.  If he told Prig to conduct a large scale, public facing mutiny then he must have a) a huge problem he needed solved and b) absolutely no other way of getting it solved.

For example, he could have had Shoigu and Gerasimov removed by FSB on trumped up charges.  And if the MoD tried to stop this from happening, then have Prig's boys mutiny in defense of Putin.  The story would then be that Putin acted decisively against the people responsible for the war's failures, THEY tried to stage a coup, and Russia's loyal patriots came to her defense.  As an added bonus Putin would be able to see who was loyal, who wasn't, and who couldn't figure it out fast enough.

Situation A (what actually happened) went straight to armed conflict, Situation B (what I just laid out) might have avoided it without Prig.  In either case Prig could have been involved physically in the same way, but the PR story for Situation B is vastly superior to Situation A.

Steve

I agree that Putin having a hand in all this is not logic or rational or even really understandable.

But on the other hand:

- you don't stay in power for so long without huge survival-instincts,

- as a bit of a paranoid figure, Putin could or would have been prepared for something like this I think,

- invading Ukraine was also not logical, rational or really understandable for "normal" people,

- he was a spy, and I suspect he still thinks as a spy,

- he and Prigozjin were always very close and during this strange mutiny neither attacked the other one directly, which I think is remarkable,

- there barely has been any serious fighting, which is even more remarkable,

- Prigozjin stops, just like that, after a ridiculous short conversation with Lukashenko? The same Lukashenko that was a total wreck at Victory day? Prigozjin listens to him??

- Prigozjin gets what he wants, just like that? In any real world I know off, mutineers are being shot, not rewarded!

- something had be done with the incompetence of the Russian High Command and that suddenly seems to happen because of Prigozjins action?

Questions without answers perhaps, but I still think there is something very strange.

 

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21 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Other version of agreements

- Wagner and Prigozhyn will be deployed in Belarus under guarantees of Lukashenko to guard Ukrainian and Polish borders. "Kiev began to rejoice early - now they will get 50 000 groupment on own northern borders"

If I were Lukashenko, I would NOT want Wagner to come "guard my borders".

But maybe this is all part of the Prig plan. To avoid direct confrontation with Putin but to take over Belarus.

I could imagine Putin under pressure would throw Belarus under the bus.

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2 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Nope, sorry, I don't see this as being a plausible or sustainable outcome.  Putin's done and Prig has got to know that.  Which means if he doesn't see this thing through someone else will.

Well what a weird day.  I agree and am highly skeptical as well.  Prig is a dead man if Putin remains in power.  No way Putin can retain an iron authoritarian grip after this demonstration if Prig and Wagner are still alive and active.  Unless this entire thing was a big clown show, which also makes no sense as the reputation damage alone is devastating.  Parking Wagner anywhere near Ukraine is a non-starter for Putin, hell anywhere near Russia is a bad idea.

Something else is going on here.

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