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How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?


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1 minute ago, Butschi said:

Well, I'll let the military experts make predictions here. No offense meant but why should a stock market analyst have more expertise in that regard than my hairdresser?

I'm not saying that he should have. I just wondered if his "realpolitik" argument had any military merit.

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6 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

I'm not saying that he should have. I just wondered if his "realpolitik" argument had any military merit.

It had a lot of merit right up until the Russian state/army demonstrated that is as about as rational and trustworthy as a rabid dog. It doesn't matter what you thought of the dog last week, there is only one solution now.

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7 minutes ago, dan/california said:

It had a lot of merit right up until the Russian state/army demonstrated that is as about as rational and trustworthy as a rabid dog. It doesn't matter what you thought of the dog last week, there is only one solution now.

I'm sure most of us can agree they are not trustworthy, but the question is whether they will be able to prevent Ukraine from retaking the ground they lost?

The general feeling I get from reading this forum is "no", but I always like to challenge my own assumptions.

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35 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

I'm sure most of us can agree they are not trustworthy, but the question is whether they will be able to prevent Ukraine from retaking the ground they lost?

The general feeling I get from reading this forum is "no", but I always like to challenge my own assumptions.

UKR doesn't have to take the ground.  Between just keeping killing Russians and the sanctions, Russia will have to eventually decide this isn't worth it, or things at home get so bad the troops just pullout.

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3 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

Ukraine has 4 more HIMARS. Nice, it brings up their number to 16 (?).

Also, interesting article about Medvedev transformation from fake moderate to even more fake hawk:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/aug/01/dmitry-medvedev-journey-liberal-anti-west-hawk-russia

And additional 3 MARS II Systems from Germany:

 

 

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10 minutes ago, sburke said:

UKR doesn't have to take the ground.  Between just keeping killing Russians and the sanctions, Russia will have to eventually decide this isn't worth it, or things at home get so bad the troops just pullout.

Yes, and that's why Russia will focus on trying to get the sanctions removed by fake "ceasefire". edit: probably - we still don't know if Putin is able to see that domestically.

I'm not sure how that would work for them, though. From EU end, bunch of nations will heavily fight for keeping the sanctions as long as possible and as harsh as possible. US seems to be the same.

And as for some nations cutting support to Ukraine, as Perun said, Ukraine can probably fight as long as just Poland and US support it - and those two are unlikely to stop even if "league of fascist / realpolitik / business first EU nations"  asks them to.

Maybe it is hype, butiIt almost feels that as long as US can supply GMLRS, Ukraine will keep hurting the Russians and keep making their position less and less sustainable.

Edited by Letter from Prague
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3 hours ago, Erwin said:

Russia will be left in charge of valuable Ukraine resources.  It is likely that after a suitable pause to allow the west to forget about Ukraine, Russia will continue to nibble around Ukraine's edges making it less and less a viable state  These likely scenarios/possibilities are far more likely to occur in the short term than any dissolution of Russia.  

 

Erwin why are they more likely? What evidence have you seen and can share with us?

 

(Hold on while I open a fresh packet of popcorn and sit back...)

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19 hours ago, asurob said:

Can a quiet observer get a ballpark estimate as to what you think could happen should that trouble go hot?  I know Kosovo has a very small army, but I imagine with NATO troops and air on the ground there and given the fact that Serbia's neighbors aren't big fans that could be the start of a domino that inflames the region...yet again.

Those thugs will get harfft again!

In 1999 the German Troops marching into Kosovo were lead by Helmut Harff, known for his sharp remarks by his men who named the process getting harfft.
While on the move into Kosovo he noticed that a Serbian unit didn't want to leave their position as agreed prior to the invasion, so he told them to leave within 30 Minutes. The Serbian commander tried to stall the timetable of the withdrawal. Harff  replayed that it was not a discussion but an order and they had 28 Minutes left to leave. His short discussion with the Serbian commander was randomly recorded by AP news. 

https://youtu.be/C4USPAU3yEc?t=41

 

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Skirmish somewhere in Kharkiv oblast, 92nd mech.brigade. Fragments of video for some reason edited incosistently. You can see a skirmish looks like without firm visual contact with the enemy. Machinegunner with PKM, filming with GoPro, got wounded. 

 

Edited by Haiduk
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The importance of factories in NATO countries supplying further ammo to Ukraine cannot be understated to their war effort. There was a explosion at a Bulgarian depot that was being prepped to hold ammo, if it was Russia behind it, it's probably a warning shot before they start blowing up actual filled in depots. It may be time to restrict visa access for Russians if nothing else than to prevent Russian agents bombing factories in the EU.

https://www.rferl.org/a/bulgaria-gebrev-ammunition-depot-explosion/31967824.html

 

 

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