Bulletpoint Posted August 1, 2022 Share Posted August 1, 2022 1 minute ago, Butschi said: Well, I'll let the military experts make predictions here. No offense meant but why should a stock market analyst have more expertise in that regard than my hairdresser? I'm not saying that he should have. I just wondered if his "realpolitik" argument had any military merit. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Butschi Posted August 1, 2022 Share Posted August 1, 2022 4 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said: I'm not saying that he should have. I just wondered if his "realpolitik" argument had any military merit. I thougt so, sorry, just edited my original post to clarify what irritates me. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan/california Posted August 1, 2022 Share Posted August 1, 2022 6 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said: I'm not saying that he should have. I just wondered if his "realpolitik" argument had any military merit. It had a lot of merit right up until the Russian state/army demonstrated that is as about as rational and trustworthy as a rabid dog. It doesn't matter what you thought of the dog last week, there is only one solution now. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bulletpoint Posted August 1, 2022 Share Posted August 1, 2022 7 minutes ago, dan/california said: It had a lot of merit right up until the Russian state/army demonstrated that is as about as rational and trustworthy as a rabid dog. It doesn't matter what you thought of the dog last week, there is only one solution now. I'm sure most of us can agree they are not trustworthy, but the question is whether they will be able to prevent Ukraine from retaking the ground they lost? The general feeling I get from reading this forum is "no", but I always like to challenge my own assumptions. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seedorf81 Posted August 1, 2022 Share Posted August 1, 2022 (edited) Very interesting article on available ammo for Himars.. https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/are-there-enough-guided-rockets-for-himars-to-keep-up-with-ukraine-war-demand Edited August 1, 2022 by Seedorf81 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sburke Posted August 1, 2022 Share Posted August 1, 2022 35 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said: I'm sure most of us can agree they are not trustworthy, but the question is whether they will be able to prevent Ukraine from retaking the ground they lost? The general feeling I get from reading this forum is "no", but I always like to challenge my own assumptions. UKR doesn't have to take the ground. Between just keeping killing Russians and the sanctions, Russia will have to eventually decide this isn't worth it, or things at home get so bad the troops just pullout. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DesertFox Posted August 1, 2022 Share Posted August 1, 2022 3 hours ago, Beleg85 said: Ukraine has 4 more HIMARS. Nice, it brings up their number to 16 (?). Also, interesting article about Medvedev transformation from fake moderate to even more fake hawk: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/aug/01/dmitry-medvedev-journey-liberal-anti-west-hawk-russia And additional 3 MARS II Systems from Germany: 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Letter from Prague Posted August 1, 2022 Share Posted August 1, 2022 (edited) 10 minutes ago, sburke said: UKR doesn't have to take the ground. Between just keeping killing Russians and the sanctions, Russia will have to eventually decide this isn't worth it, or things at home get so bad the troops just pullout. Yes, and that's why Russia will focus on trying to get the sanctions removed by fake "ceasefire". edit: probably - we still don't know if Putin is able to see that domestically. I'm not sure how that would work for them, though. From EU end, bunch of nations will heavily fight for keeping the sanctions as long as possible and as harsh as possible. US seems to be the same. And as for some nations cutting support to Ukraine, as Perun said, Ukraine can probably fight as long as just Poland and US support it - and those two are unlikely to stop even if "league of fascist / realpolitik / business first EU nations" asks them to. Maybe it is hype, butiIt almost feels that as long as US can supply GMLRS, Ukraine will keep hurting the Russians and keep making their position less and less sustainable. Edited August 1, 2022 by Letter from Prague 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akd Posted August 1, 2022 Share Posted August 1, 2022 (edited) LPR solution to a serial rapist / murderer on the loose: wait until the current RF unit rotates out and problem will be solved. Edited August 1, 2022 by akd 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danfrodo Posted August 1, 2022 Share Posted August 1, 2022 15 minutes ago, DesertFox said: And additional 3 MARS II Systems from Germany: what was once a trickle is now a flood. RU is getting more & more outgunned operationally. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DesertFox Posted August 1, 2022 Share Posted August 1, 2022 38 minutes ago, danfrodo said: what was once a trickle is now a flood. RU is getting more & more outgunned operationally. Which is a good and much needed thing to blast the orcs off the country. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grigb Posted August 1, 2022 Share Posted August 1, 2022 Evening Donbass Map 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Markus86 Posted August 1, 2022 Share Posted August 1, 2022 Some scenes from Mariupol: Hard to understand, how it is possible to conquer a city. Fighting from room to room, floor to floor, building to building, underground, limited possibilities for artillery/air support. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holien Posted August 1, 2022 Share Posted August 1, 2022 3 hours ago, Erwin said: Russia will be left in charge of valuable Ukraine resources. It is likely that after a suitable pause to allow the west to forget about Ukraine, Russia will continue to nibble around Ukraine's edges making it less and less a viable state These likely scenarios/possibilities are far more likely to occur in the short term than any dissolution of Russia. Erwin why are they more likely? What evidence have you seen and can share with us? (Hold on while I open a fresh packet of popcorn and sit back...) 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huba Posted August 1, 2022 Share Posted August 1, 2022 Moar 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_MonkeyKing Posted August 1, 2022 Share Posted August 1, 2022 1 minute ago, Huba said: Moar These are the norm now. When we stop seeing these every couple of weeks the US has stopped maintaining the Ukraine in this conflict. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteelRain Posted August 1, 2022 Share Posted August 1, 2022 19 hours ago, asurob said: Can a quiet observer get a ballpark estimate as to what you think could happen should that trouble go hot? I know Kosovo has a very small army, but I imagine with NATO troops and air on the ground there and given the fact that Serbia's neighbors aren't big fans that could be the start of a domino that inflames the region...yet again. Those thugs will get harfft again! In 1999 the German Troops marching into Kosovo were lead by Helmut Harff, known for his sharp remarks by his men who named the process getting harfft. While on the move into Kosovo he noticed that a Serbian unit didn't want to leave their position as agreed prior to the invasion, so he told them to leave within 30 Minutes. The Serbian commander tried to stall the timetable of the withdrawal. Harff replayed that it was not a discussion but an order and they had 28 Minutes left to leave. His short discussion with the Serbian commander was randomly recorded by AP news. https://youtu.be/C4USPAU3yEc?t=41 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted August 1, 2022 Share Posted August 1, 2022 (edited) Skirmish somewhere in Kharkiv oblast, 92nd mech.brigade. Fragments of video for some reason edited incosistently. You can see a skirmish looks like without firm visual contact with the enemy. Machinegunner with PKM, filming with GoPro, got wounded. Edited August 1, 2022 by Haiduk 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akd Posted August 1, 2022 Share Posted August 1, 2022 @sburke @Kinophile Lt. Col. Andrey Lutsko, unknown unit (probably an aviation support unit?): 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aragorn2002 Posted August 1, 2022 Share Posted August 1, 2022 52 minutes ago, DesertFox said: Which is a good and much needed thing to blast the orcs off the country. Careful, DF, you might shock the sensitive Gutmenschen among us. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akd Posted August 1, 2022 Share Posted August 1, 2022 Presumably this is US-supplied "Phoenix Ghost" loitering munition strike, followed by mortars: 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FancyCat Posted August 1, 2022 Share Posted August 1, 2022 The importance of factories in NATO countries supplying further ammo to Ukraine cannot be understated to their war effort. There was a explosion at a Bulgarian depot that was being prepped to hold ammo, if it was Russia behind it, it's probably a warning shot before they start blowing up actual filled in depots. It may be time to restrict visa access for Russians if nothing else than to prevent Russian agents bombing factories in the EU. https://www.rferl.org/a/bulgaria-gebrev-ammunition-depot-explosion/31967824.html 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted August 1, 2022 Share Posted August 1, 2022 (edited) Russian Tunguska, spotted by drone of National Guard, was destroyed afetr artillery strike. Kharkiv oblast Edited August 1, 2022 by Haiduk 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billbindc Posted August 1, 2022 Share Posted August 1, 2022 Worth noting: a significant proportion of the economic pain associated with the Russian invasion of Ukraine is about speculation rather than scarcity. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan/california Posted August 1, 2022 Share Posted August 1, 2022 (edited) 48 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said: Careful, DF, you might shock the sensitive Gutmenschen among us. What I said yesterday that made twitter mad was considerably harsher than that.... Edited August 1, 2022 by dan/california 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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