How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[akd]

40 minutes ago, sburke said:

According to Ukrainian Permanent Representative to the U.N. Sergiy Kyslytsya, more than 234,000 children had been transferred to Russia by early June.

This is a misleading statistic, at least the way it is sometimes presented.  This includes all children that crossed the border: voluntarily with family (displacement), involuntarily with family (forced deportation), and separated from legal guardians (kidnapping, e.g. of children removed from families or orphans in care of state / church / NGO).  The latter is of course the most egregious act of genocide now that Russia has announced these children will be placed with Russian families and “Russified” and includes at least 2,000 children.

Edited June 14, 2022 by akd

[Centurian52]

On 6/10/2022 at 11:52 AM, acrashb said:

On a more serious-than-Monty-Python note, I raise the data point of Canada. https://www.britannica.com/event/Canada-Act No-one in Canada feels oppressed by the British.  Well, maybe some people in Quebec, but that was over in 1763 and most other colonial / imperialist powers would not have accepted two founding nations, but rather would have tried to exterminate or run-off their less-preferred nation.

As much as I dislike the largely-useless occupation of arguing politics on the internet, your take on the British Empire, while not without some reality, is overall not well grounded.  As far as I am concerned it has left behind the most positive legacy of any imperial era and power, extending beyond cricket into more substantial things.  Throw out the bathwater, not the baby.

Having said that, I'll go back to scouring the web for rumours of Putin's health status

 

I'm of two minds on this. On the one hand, I really don't think it's good to whitewash our past. We probably shouldn't pretend that the British Empire were the good guys (you don't conquer a quarter of the globe by being nice). On the other hand, it isn't relevant to any discussion of who the good guys are today. No reasonable person should have any concern that the British will get up to their old habits.

[danfrodo]

Good write up today here by Markos (ex arty soldier).  Talks about the arty situation and some kharkiv w some good clarity, speculates on where & when the UKR heavy brigades will be employed.

LIBERAL SITE, ENTER AT OWN RISK.  

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/6/13/2104025/-Ukraine-Update-Ukraine-won-t-get-all-the-artillery-it-wants-but-it-doesn-t-need-to

 

[Centurian52]

On 6/10/2022 at 12:20 PM, Centurian52 said:

Why do I get the feeling that it might take a bit longer?

edit: Also, I'm only two days behind now! Y'all post fast, but I'm definitely gaining on this thread

four days (and 25 pages) behind now. *sigh* I'm still convinced I'll catch up eventually

[Huba]

A little update regarding the UA grain exports.

So in May, 1.5M tons of grain was moved by rail through Poland. Together with capacities offered by Romania, it equaled to more than 2M tons, around 40% of what is needed. I don't know much how the situation looks in RO, but just read an interview with the owner of the biggest intermodal terminal in Poland that is connected to UA broad gauge railway. Few interesting points:

- at the moment the biggest obstacle to move the grain speedily are various custom controls, first and foremost sanitary inspections. UA and PL sides see those problems and are working on them, progress is slow but steady.

- second biggest obstacle is the capacity of ports. Poland is not a huge grain exporter and Polish ports can't match even 10% of capacity UA ports have. Right now bulk of the grain is shipped through the Baltics and an increasing amount is being moved through Western European facilities.

- in the interviewee's opinion, if all delays created by customs would disappear completely, his and second biggest intermodal terminal in Poland could move up to 5M tons of grain alone, basically solving the problem. As of now those work at 20% capacity.

- Polish railways are making a killing on transit fares at the moment

In general it sounds quite uplifting, it's reasonable to believe that  the grain export crisis UA is facing will be solved without unblocking the ports. Suck on that Vlad

Article in Polish,

Edited June 14, 2022 by Huba

[Aragorn2002]

16 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

Good write up today here by Markos (ex arty soldier).  Talks about the arty situation and some kharkiv w some good clarity, speculates on where & when the UKR heavy brigades will be employed.

LIBERAL SITE, ENTER AT OWN RISK.  

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/6/13/2104025/-Ukraine-Update-Ukraine-won-t-get-all-the-artillery-it-wants-but-it-doesn-t-need-to

 

Great article, Dan. Thanks!

[Huba]

Take a look at this!

It was geolocated and the depot is on the southern (!) bank of Dnipro, around 55 km from nearest UA positions. So either:

- it is a (fortunate) accident

- work of SOF/ partisans

- an air/drone strike

- or UA artillery. Theoretically Excalibur launched from L52 gun, RAP from 2S7 or BM-30 or Tochka should be able to reach it, but it might as well mean that HIMARS has arrived - it is exactly 2 weeks since it was announced (training was to be 2-3 weeks). What is sure is that we can expect many more such sights in the upcoming future.

Edited June 14, 2022 by Huba

[Vanir Ausf B]

 

[Ultradave]

2 hours ago, danfrodo said:

Good write up today here by Markos (ex arty soldier).  Talks about the arty situation and some kharkiv w some good clarity, speculates on where & when the UKR heavy brigades will be employed.

LIBERAL SITE, ENTER AT OWN RISK.  

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/6/13/2104025/-Ukraine-Update-Ukraine-won-t-get-all-the-artillery-it-wants-but-it-doesn-t-need-to

 

I love Gen. Hertling, but his math is off. He went from saying that each battalion has 16-24 howitzers and 9 rocket systems to a whole division having 24 howitzers and 9 rocket systems. A division as 3 artillery battalions so for example an all gun, no rockets division would have 6 guns/battery x 3 batteries/battalion x 3 battalions per divarty = 54 guns.  So the whole active Army is about 500-ish guns and fewer rocket launch systems.  These 500 or so guns are a mix of M109s, M777s with a sprinkling of M102s (105mm) mixed in.

None of that corrected math changes the overall point however, in that 1000 guns aren't coming.  They don't exist, or not without totally stripping ALL of the artillery from the biggest NATO armies.  Of course it never hurts to ask for the moon and then maybe your benefactors will scrape together as much as they can, right?

BTW, though, Gen. Hertling IMO has done a masterful job in interviews providing realistic assessments, at least as far as the knowledge he has available, and the ability to put things in terms the average viewer, listener, or reader can easily understand with no military or technical background. I always thought he was an excellent officer, but he has really been shining, I think, as a military expert to call upon. Adm. Kirby, the DoD spokesman until just recently, has that same ability.  It's been my experience in general that flag officers in the US military have been outstanding. There are exceptions of course, but there is a HUGE weeding out that occurs first from O-5 to O-6  (LtC, to COL) and again from COL to BG. I have yet to meet a General who was not an outstanding individual, as an officer technically, and as a leader and a person.

Dave

Edited June 14, 2022 by Ultradave

[Beleg85]

9 hours ago, Huba said:

14 hours ago, danfrodo said:

Poland is arming!  This is a serious threat and provocation!  Putin must invade now before it's too late!  He is only doing this because he has no choice, since later he will be at the mercy of the culturally and ethnically aggressor-nation Poles! 

Everyone will stop buying gas, clothes and food for a few years, but the army will be really well equipped  What didn't make it into the list is also reconnaissance-strike system based on indigenous UAVs, that are to be purchased in huge numbers, called Gladius.

https://polskieradio24.pl/395/7784/Artykul/2952827,Poland-buys-modern-drones-for-army-amid-Russia’s-war-on-Ukraine

Edit: oh, and MoD wants to purchase 2 recce satellites as well!

Our MoD also announced that it in intends to raise number of active divisions from 4 to 6, and perhaps a number if brigades in each one... That would mean going back to conscription, no way we can fill those with contract soldiers or volunteers. There are also elections in next year and it will be the next government that will have to finance all of this. No more soy lattes, blood and iron for everyone...

Now, we only need now to find  miraculously survivng heir of Czarist throne (Romanovs perhaps, but other can do), some ambitious girl to seduce him, and we can go for Russian collapse...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/False_Dmitry

Edited June 14, 2022 by Beleg85

[FancyCat]

5 minutes ago, Ultradave said:

I love Sen Hertling, but his math is off. He went from saying that each battalion has 16-24 howitzers and 9 rocket systems to a whole division having 24 howitzers and 9 rocket systems. A division as 3 artillery battalions so for example an all gun, no rockets division would have 6 guns/battery x 3 batteries/battalion x 3 battalions per divarty = 54 guns.  So the whole active Army is about 500-ish guns and fewer rocket launch systems.  These 500 or so guns are a mix of M109s, M777s with a sprinkling of M102s (105mm) mixed in.

None of that corrected math changes the overall point however, in that 1000 guns aren't coming.  They don't exist, or not without totally stripping ALL of the artillery from the biggest NATO armies.  Of course it never hurts to ask for the moon and then maybe your benefactors will scrape together as much as they can, right?

BTW, though, Gen. Hertling IMO has done a masterful job in interviews providing realistic assessments, at least as far as the knowledge he has available, and the ability to put things in terms the average viewer, listener, or reader can easily understand with no military or technical background. I always thought he was an excellent officer, but he has really been shining, I think, as a military expert to call upon. Adm. Kirby, the DoD spokesman until just recently, has that same ability.  It's been my experience in general that flag officers in the US military have been outstanding. There are exceptions of course, but there is a HUGE weeding out that occurs first from O-5 to O-6  (LtC, to COL) and again from COL to BG. I have yet to meet a General who was not an outstanding individual, as an officer technically, and as a leader and a person.

Dave

 

Goddamn I did not realize Ukraine was asking for essentially the entire artillery of the U.S x2.

 

[fireship4]

4 hours ago, Billy Ringo said:

On multiple occasions I've tried to find the % of Russian military by region both serving and KIA/WIA and can't find it.  I've seen numerous articles stating that Russian casualties are significantly higher for ethnic minorities and remote regions than that from more populated and progressive Western areas.   But nothing definitive.

In addition to those links provided by @cesmonkey there is this picture also linked by Kamil Galeev:

EDIT: You can use this site to help translate the text (you might want to use this version of the image as it is bigger without the English notation).

Edited June 14, 2022 by fireship4

[Combatintman]

18 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Somebody did something to a Russian temporary base near Bryansk (at least that's the suspected location), no details:

 

The meta data says Bryansk but that appears to have been user defined because the ground at the grid plot looks nothing like what we're seeing in the video and seems to be the default setting for anything tagged Bryansk.  The imagery, according to the metadata, was captured on 13 June so it is definitely recent.

[Centurian52]

On 6/10/2022 at 11:43 PM, Ts4EVER said:

Some of you here have a weird impression of Germany, I have to say...

You know what the Germans, at the end of the day, wanted in WW2? A nice, cozy, USA-type lifestyle.

What did WW2 teach them? You don't get that by war, you get it by selling everybody cars and cheating on the occasional emissions test. This is basically the German modern mindset summed up.

They don't want to pay good money for weapons, especially considering that if there is a WW3 involving NATO, it would probably be the end of the world anyway. And while the current media blitz was quite effective, they don't REALLY care about some eastern european country that they ultimately view as backwards and corrupt. At best they view those people as possibly cheap labour, just make sure to keep an eye on that family silver great-grandpa got for cheap from the Jews!

For Germany the whole affair is a big inconvenience. Except for the sanction effects and some refugees, the only real way it would massively hurt Germany is if someone annoys the Russians enough to end the world, which is what Scholz wants to avoid. Other than that, what mostly changes is that they have to get their gas from elsewhere now and are more dependent on the US than on Russia. Which is fine for now, but just wait until the next election, when there is a good chance that the borderline subhuman rednecks, who don't believe in evolution because they are at the beginning of it, vote someone into office who may as well be Putin.

And as for paying for weapons: As I said, history has taught them that this is ultimately a fool's errand and it is easy to come to the conclusion that the only thing you get by buying, let's say, a bunch of new fighter jets, is a better view of the mushroom clouds once things kick off.

So, in conclusion, I don't know why people are so shocked by Germany's stance.

This all adds up to an explanation, not a justification, of Germany's lackluster response. If anything, it is just about the most damning explanation that could have possibly been provided. "Germany isn't helping much because they don't really care about Ukraine and view the whole situation as an inconvenience" is not an explanation that is going to make me sympathetic to Germany. I was far more sympathetic to explanations that leaned on the assertion that the modern Bundeswehr is in fact very weak and doesn't have much to give.

[Centurian52]

On 6/10/2022 at 11:59 PM, fireship4 said:

and that the idea that people can be subhuman is more problematic than Trumpism

I think the main problem with Trumpism is that the idea that people can be subhuman comes packaged with it.

[dan/california]

10 hours ago, Huba said:

Everyone will stop buying gas, clothes and food for a few years, but the army will be really well equipped  What didn't make it into the list is also reconnaissance-strike system based on indigenous UAVs, that are to be purchased in huge numbers, called Gladius.

https://polskieradio24.pl/395/7784/Artykul/2952827,Poland-buys-modern-drones-for-army-amid-Russia’s-war-on-Ukraine

Edit: oh, and MoD wants to purchase 2 recce satellites as well!

Our MoD also announced that it in intends to raise number of active divisions from 4 to 6, and perhaps a number if brigades in each one... That would mean going back to conscription, no way we can fill those with contract soldiers or volunteers. There are also elections in next year and it will be the next government that will have to finance all of this. No more soy lattes, blood and iron for everyone...

That list really would equip an army that could TAKE Moscow, instead of merely discouraging it.

[Grigb]

4 minutes ago, Combatintman said:

The meta data says Bryansk but that appears to have been user defined because the ground at the grid plot looks nothing like what we're seeing in the video and seems to be the default setting for anything tagged Bryansk.  The imagery, according to the metadata, was captured on 13 June so it is definitely recent.

It should be at Klintzi (Клинцы) town, next to village Zaimishche (Займище) in Bryansk Oblast. 

[Huba]

6 minutes ago, Grigb said:

It should be at Klintzi (Клинцы) town, next to village Zaimishche (Займище) in Bryansk Oblast. 

That is a second case of something blowing up 55+ km from the Russian lines - I linked tweet with explosion in Nova Kakhovka few posts up. I'd expect many more such incidents in next days and weeks 

[Huba]

15 minutes ago, dan/california said:

That list really would equip an army that could TAKE Moscow, instead of merely discouraging it.

Minsk will do for now, security setup in Eastern Europe would be much better with Belarus on the right side. Oh, and nobody wants Moscow, it's full of Russians.

Edited June 14, 2022 by Huba

[Centurian52]

On 6/11/2022 at 12:16 AM, dan/california said:

So we COULD admit that the only likely opponent for a land war in Europe is currently wrecking itself in eastern Ukraine, and send Ukrainians everything they actually need, so they can finish wrecking it without losing a whole generation of fighting age men. What they need is about a third of the hardware in Europe. If the Russians leave Ukraine just beaten they are not coming back for a while. So unless you anticipate shipping most of your army to Taiwan sometime soon, The only real limit on how much hardware you can send them is how much you have. And if the Russians do completely lose their minds and attack Poland or the Baltics, it is Pretty clear their air force wouldn't last a day, and the rest of their army wouldn't last two more when GBUs started raining down in quantity. There is just no rational reason not send the Ukrainians everything they can physically use. Starting with the entire artillery park.

In fact I do anticipate that we'll be needing to ship a lot of equipment to Taiwan sometime soon. But I anticipate that a war over Taiwan is still a few years out, and we will have time to replace stocks we send to Ukraine. Ukraine is the more urgent need. But I do think we should take a few lessons from how difficult it is to hastily ship off equipment to Ukraine only when it's needed, and start ramping up shipments to Taiwan right now before they are needed. But I also don't think Europe needs to spare anything for Taiwan. Europe should give all it can to Ukraine. The US has plenty of equipment in it's inventory to supply its fair share to Ukraine and have plenty left over to start ramping up shipments to Taiwan as well.

[Haiduk]

1 hour ago, Huba said:

Take a look at this!

It was geolocated and the depot is on the southern (!) bank of Dnipro, around 55 km from nearest UA positions.

 

Nova Kakhovka. Yesterday there was a video of recon group, which claimed they are already in 10 km from Kherson. But actually our forces are in 15-18 km from NW outskirts of the city 

Edited June 14, 2022 by Haiduk

[Huba]

16 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Nova Kakovka. Yesterday there was a video of recon group, which claimed they are already in 10 km from Kherson. But actually our forces are in 15-18 km from NW outskirts of the city 

If it was indeed the work of UA artillery, it's more likely they were shooting from around Davydiv Brid I think? Either way UA is gaining an ability to reach far and hit where it really hurts. Tables are about to turn...

Edit: I just the tweet below, before he also mentioned Tomina Balka being contested. It looks like ZSU is closing on Kherson, soon the bridges will be inside artillery fire!

 

Edited June 14, 2022 by Huba

[danfrodo]

4 minutes ago, Centurian52 said:

In fact I do anticipate that we'll be needing to ship a lot of equipment to Taiwan sometime soon. But I anticipate that a war over Taiwan is still a few years out, and we will have time to replace stocks we send to Ukraine. Ukraine is the more urgent need. But I do think we should take a few lessons from how difficult it is to hastily ship off equipment to Ukraine only when it's needed, and start ramping up shipments to Taiwan right now before they are needed. But I also don't think Europe needs to spare anything for Taiwan. Europe should give all it can to Ukraine. The US has plenty of equipment in it's inventory to supply its fair share to Ukraine and have plenty left over to start ramping up shipments to Taiwan as well.

China attacking Taiwan is an utterly insane, self destructive choice for China.  They are dependent on trade and world is dependent on them.  Attacking Taiwan wrecks all that.  There is simply no cost-benefit that is in 1000 miles of making sense.

And so maybe China will actually do that.  considering it was insane for Putin to make this move.  Actually Putin's move was less insane than Taiwan attack would be -- Putin was staging a coup that went sideways.  China would be full on war.  I guess insane cost-benefit ratio doesn't really mean a dictator won't do actually pull the trigger.

[sburke]

4 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

China attacking Taiwan is an utterly insane, self destructive choice for China.  They are dependent on trade and world is dependent on them.  Attacking Taiwan wrecks all that.  There is simply no cost-benefit that is in 1000 miles of making sense.

And so maybe China will actually do that.  considering it was insane for Putin to make this move.  Actually Putin's move was less insane than Taiwan attack would be -- Putin was staging a coup that went sideways.  China would be full on war.  I guess insane cost-benefit ratio doesn't really mean a dictator won't do actually pull the trigger.

I'm not in the grouping that expects China to do anything soon about Taiwan, but the rationale for doing so may be more dependent on how much the state feels it is at risk.  China has some major demographic issues that are going to be due before too long.  States that feel they are at risk tend to make decisions that are more desperate than rational. 

[Huba]

8 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

And so maybe China will actually do that.  considering it was insane for Putin to make this move.  Actually Putin's move was less insane than Taiwan attack would be -- Putin was staging a coup that went sideways.  China would be full on war.  I guess insane cost-benefit ratio doesn't really mean a dictator won't do actually pull the trigger.

I'm sure you know how many times such words were uttered just before some crazy invasion started? (rhetorical question ) It might make sense if they were able to capture all the FABs intact, which is not possible in face of determined defense. Or they might deem it worth it as a stepping stone for huge invasion of all of the near abroad IJN style, which is crazy. Or it (most possibly) be just an ego trip of Xi or his successor.

If the UA war goes the way we expect, US will be able to pivot to Asia fully during this decade, and maybe even hope on some token reinforcements there from the European partners if called for. There is talk of "Asian NATO" that has to form to counter China. It seems difficult politically at this point, but there's is enough countries that have very tense relations with Beijing to maybe make it happen.

Edited June 14, 2022 by Huba