How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Los]

They are using Rocket toss, it allows them to fire off the rockets without getting as close as normal more-accurate rocket delivery. The downside is greater dispersion as opposed to the more accurate point delivery of rockets. Also implied on all this is that the main armament of the attack helo.

 

Right off the bat the main and most accurate weapon system available to Russian attack Helos, the ViKhr ATGM has been in almost no usage, (Again we have seen the Russians didn't have large stocks of expensive weapons) the next most accurate system, their 30mm autocannon requires getting in close. The rockets(s-13) are being used in a manner that results in the least risk (and the least amount of effectiveness). They are essentially using this weapon system as very expensive artillery.

[Machor]

An insider's perspective on the question of 'traitors':

Babushka Z: The woman who became a Russian propaganda icon

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61757667

"An elderly Ukrainian woman brandishing a red Soviet flag has become the unlikely face of Kremlin propaganda after a video of her encounter with Ukrainian soldiers went viral. The BBC tracked down "Babushka Z" to try to establish the truth behind the incident."

"The video shows her walking towards two Ukrainian soldiers holding a red Soviet flag.

The soldiers say they have arrived to help and offer her a bag of food. Then they take the flag off her, throw it on the ground and stamp on it. So the woman, feeling insulted, gives the food back to them. "My parents died for that flag in World War Two," she says, indignantly.

For the Kremlin, this was gold. Russian propaganda is rarely able to centre on individuals, and they saw this woman as a rare example of a Ukrainian who regretted the collapse of the Soviet Union and considered the Russians to be liberators."

"She has now been immortalised in murals, placards, postcards, sculptures and bumper stickers. Songs and poems have been dedicated to her. Russian officials even unveiled a statue of her in Mariupol, the Ukrainian city that has been bombed to the ground."

"Until recently, no one knew the true identity of Babushka Z. In fact, nobody was sure if she was even alive.

But she is a very real person. Her name is Anna Ivanovna and we tracked her down to Velyka Danylivka, a village near Kharkiv in north-eastern Ukraine where she lives with her husband, dogs, cats and rabbits.

The lively 69-year-old looks surprised when we show her pictures of the statue made in her image. "Do I really look so old?", she asks. "It's like a stranger is staring at me!"

But her story is very different from the image that the Russian media has been painting. She does not support the war.

"How can I support my people dying? My grandchildren and great-grandchildren were forced to go to Poland. We live in fear and terror."

So why did Anna greet soldiers with a Soviet flag? She says she has been misunderstood. She claims she confused the two Ukrainian soldiers offering her food with Russian soldiers.

"I was just happy that Russians would come and not fight with us. I was happy that we would unite again."

Anna did not put any political subtext into her act. The red flag, she says, is not the flag of the Soviet Union, not of Russia, but "the banner of love and happiness in every family, in every city, in every republic. Not of bloodshed. And whoever says otherwise, is wrong."

While Anna talked, the constant roar of artillery and fighting could be heard nearby. She didn't flinch once - she has become used to it.

"If I could speak to Vladimir Putin I would say, you've made a mistake. Us Ukrainian workers, what have we ever done to deserve this? We are the ones who are suffering the most."

But Anna is from the Soviet time, and reluctant to openly criticise the Russian leader.

"Putin is a president. A tsar, a king, an emperor.""

"Anna fears for her safety now. In Ukraine, she is being attacked online because she is seen as pro-Russian.

All her neighbours shun her. It's a small village and everyone knows each other.

"I'm not happy they've made me famous. Because in Ukraine, now they consider me a traitor."

But it's clear that the true scale of her fame only really becomes apparent to Anna at the end of our interview. As we say goodbye to her, she tries to give us her beloved red flag with the sickle and hammer.

"I don't want any trouble. I don't want people to ever use it against me.""

[dan/california]

Ukr is firing Brimstone missiles off the back of pick ups, too. or maybe five ton trucks. Seems to work brilliantly. And it is just a better hellfire, which drones seem to do just fine. And even the really big drones don't cost anymore than an Apache. If I may toot my own horn, I have been advocating ground based hellfires on this forum since about ~2010. The APS on the new Panther has to be exceptional for it to be an even vaguely viable concept. No top tier army is ever showing up without enough small missiles and PGMs again. That lesson has been taught.

 

Edit: I forgot to quote in the post from Los  above was replying too, sorry.

Edited June 15, 2022 by dan/california

[dan/california]

 

12 minutes ago, Machor said:

An insider's perspective on the question of 'traitors':

Babushka Z: The woman who became a Russian propaganda icon

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61757667

"An elderly Ukrainian woman brandishing a red Soviet flag has become the unlikely face of Kremlin propaganda after a video of her encounter with Ukrainian soldiers went viral. The BBC tracked down "Babushka Z" to try to establish the truth behind the incident."

"The video shows her walking towards two Ukrainian soldiers holding a red Soviet flag.

The soldiers say they have arrived to help and offer her a bag of food. Then they take the flag off her, throw it on the ground and stamp on it. So the woman, feeling insulted, gives the food back to them. "My parents died for that flag in World War Two," she says, indignantly.

For the Kremlin, this was gold. Russian propaganda is rarely able to centre on individuals, and they saw this woman as a rare example of a Ukrainian who regretted the collapse of the Soviet Union and considered the Russians to be liberators."

"She has now been immortalised in murals, placards, postcards, sculptures and bumper stickers. Songs and poems have been dedicated to her. Russian officials even unveiled a statue of her in Mariupol, the Ukrainian city that has been bombed to the ground."

"Until recently, no one knew the true identity of Babushka Z. In fact, nobody was sure if she was even alive.

But she is a very real person. Her name is Anna Ivanovna and we tracked her down to Velyka Danylivka, a village near Kharkiv in north-eastern Ukraine where she lives with her husband, dogs, cats and rabbits.

The lively 69-year-old looks surprised when we show her pictures of the statue made in her image. "Do I really look so old?", she asks. "It's like a stranger is staring at me!"

But her story is very different from the image that the Russian media has been painting. She does not support the war.

"How can I support my people dying? My grandchildren and great-grandchildren were forced to go to Poland. We live in fear and terror."

So why did Anna greet soldiers with a Soviet flag? She says she has been misunderstood. She claims she confused the two Ukrainian soldiers offering her food with Russian soldiers.

"I was just happy that Russians would come and not fight with us. I was happy that we would unite again."

Anna did not put any political subtext into her act. The red flag, she says, is not the flag of the Soviet Union, not of Russia, but "the banner of love and happiness in every family, in every city, in every republic. Not of bloodshed. And whoever says otherwise, is wrong."

While Anna talked, the constant roar of artillery and fighting could be heard nearby. She didn't flinch once - she has become used to it.

"If I could speak to Vladimir Putin I would say, you've made a mistake. Us Ukrainian workers, what have we ever done to deserve this? We are the ones who are suffering the most."

But Anna is from the Soviet time, and reluctant to openly criticise the Russian leader.

"Putin is a president. A tsar, a king, an emperor.""

"Anna fears for her safety now. In Ukraine, she is being attacked online because she is seen as pro-Russian.

All her neighbours shun her. It's a small village and everyone knows each other.

"I'm not happy they've made me famous. Because in Ukraine, now they consider me a traitor."

But it's clear that the true scale of her fame only really becomes apparent to Anna at the end of our interview. As we say goodbye to her, she tries to give us her beloved red flag with the sickle and hammer.

"I don't want any trouble. I don't want people to ever use it against me.""

I hope Putin's propaganda machine likes her enough to find her an apartment on the outskirts of Moscow...

[LongLeftFlank]

2 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

On human cost of the war (perhaps it was posted in this thread):  today occupiers killed Roman Ratushnyi. The guy was just 24 and known Kyiv anti-corruption and historical activists. His beating at Maidan was one of the sparks for whole Revolution of Dignity. Served in 93rd Brigade.

 

Yeah, and some of those beautiful girls in camo are dying for their country as well. 

 

[FancyCat]

23 minutes ago, Machor said:

An insider's perspective on the question of 'traitors':

Babushka Z: The woman who became a Russian propaganda icon

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61757667

"An elderly Ukrainian woman brandishing a red Soviet flag has become the unlikely face of Kremlin propaganda after a video of her encounter with Ukrainian soldiers went viral. The BBC tracked down "Babushka Z" to try to establish the truth behind the incident."

"The video shows her walking towards two Ukrainian soldiers holding a red Soviet flag.

The soldiers say they have arrived to help and offer her a bag of food. Then they take the flag off her, throw it on the ground and stamp on it. So the woman, feeling insulted, gives the food back to them. "My parents died for that flag in World War Two," she says, indignantly.

For the Kremlin, this was gold. Russian propaganda is rarely able to centre on individuals, and they saw this woman as a rare example of a Ukrainian who regretted the collapse of the Soviet Union and considered the Russians to be liberators."

"She has now been immortalised in murals, placards, postcards, sculptures and bumper stickers. Songs and poems have been dedicated to her. Russian officials even unveiled a statue of her in Mariupol, the Ukrainian city that has been bombed to the ground."

"Until recently, no one knew the true identity of Babushka Z. In fact, nobody was sure if she was even alive.

But she is a very real person. Her name is Anna Ivanovna and we tracked her down to Velyka Danylivka, a village near Kharkiv in north-eastern Ukraine where she lives with her husband, dogs, cats and rabbits.

The lively 69-year-old looks surprised when we show her pictures of the statue made in her image. "Do I really look so old?", she asks. "It's like a stranger is staring at me!"

But her story is very different from the image that the Russian media has been painting. She does not support the war.

"How can I support my people dying? My grandchildren and great-grandchildren were forced to go to Poland. We live in fear and terror."

So why did Anna greet soldiers with a Soviet flag? She says she has been misunderstood. She claims she confused the two Ukrainian soldiers offering her food with Russian soldiers.

"I was just happy that Russians would come and not fight with us. I was happy that we would unite again."

Anna did not put any political subtext into her act. The red flag, she says, is not the flag of the Soviet Union, not of Russia, but "the banner of love and happiness in every family, in every city, in every republic. Not of bloodshed. And whoever says otherwise, is wrong."

While Anna talked, the constant roar of artillery and fighting could be heard nearby. She didn't flinch once - she has become used to it.

"If I could speak to Vladimir Putin I would say, you've made a mistake. Us Ukrainian workers, what have we ever done to deserve this? We are the ones who are suffering the most."

But Anna is from the Soviet time, and reluctant to openly criticise the Russian leader.

"Putin is a president. A tsar, a king, an emperor.""

"Anna fears for her safety now. In Ukraine, she is being attacked online because she is seen as pro-Russian.

All her neighbours shun her. It's a small village and everyone knows each other.

"I'm not happy they've made me famous. Because in Ukraine, now they consider me a traitor."

But it's clear that the true scale of her fame only really becomes apparent to Anna at the end of our interview. As we say goodbye to her, she tries to give us her beloved red flag with the sickle and hammer.

"I don't want any trouble. I don't want people to ever use it against me.""

Tbh it’s just a flag being waved, I hope her village recognizes her regret and isnt too harsh on her. Tho I saw Ukraine has been investigating pro-Russian social media postings by Ukrainians. On one hand, on the other, you do need to ensure they aren’t stirring the pot. War always make these questions impossible to answer vs in peace. 

4 minutes ago, dan/california said:

 

I hope Putin's propaganda machine likes her enough to find her an apartment on the outskirts of Moscow...

I believe the soldier who stomped on the flag in the video wished that she won’t be too socially punished for her actions. Also, apparently they made up in a sort of way after the incident, but the video spread out anyway. 

https://meduza.io/en/feature/2022/05/16/maybe-the-lord-himself-sent-me

 

[dan/california]

12 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Yeah, and some of those beautiful girls in camo are dying for their country as well. 

 

There is a reason they are screaming their heads of for more artillery.

Edited June 15, 2022 by dan/california

[LongLeftFlank]

10 hours ago, danfrodo said:

Good write up today here by Markos (ex arty soldier).  Talks about the arty situation and some kharkiv w some good clarity, speculates on where & when the UKR heavy brigades will be employed.

LIBERAL SITE, ENTER AT OWN RISK.  

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/6/13/2104025/-Ukraine-Update-Ukraine-won-t-get-all-the-artillery-it-wants-but-it-doesn-t-need-to

 

Outstanding summary, both of the all-important artillery war and of the war in general. Never mind the site's politics.

[The_MonkeyKing]

one of the indirect fire helicopter missions:

I must say I am surprised how effective it looks. Like a micro MLRS. We need this in CM.

[Aragorn2002]

5 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

On human cost of the war (perhaps it was posted in this thread):  today occupiers killed Roman Ratushnyi. The guy was just 24 and known Kyiv anti-corruption and historical activists. His beating at Maidan was one of the sparks for whole Revolution of Dignity. Served in 93rd Brigade.

 

He won't be forgotten. Nor his killers.

[Aragorn2002]

3 hours ago, Machor said:

An insider's perspective on the question of 'traitors':

Babushka Z: The woman who became a Russian propaganda icon

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61757667

"An elderly Ukrainian woman brandishing a red Soviet flag has become the unlikely face of Kremlin propaganda after a video of her encounter with Ukrainian soldiers went viral. The BBC tracked down "Babushka Z" to try to establish the truth behind the incident."

"The video shows her walking towards two Ukrainian soldiers holding a red Soviet flag.

The soldiers say they have arrived to help and offer her a bag of food. Then they take the flag off her, throw it on the ground and stamp on it. So the woman, feeling insulted, gives the food back to them. "My parents died for that flag in World War Two," she says, indignantly.

For the Kremlin, this was gold. Russian propaganda is rarely able to centre on individuals, and they saw this woman as a rare example of a Ukrainian who regretted the collapse of the Soviet Union and considered the Russians to be liberators."

"She has now been immortalised in murals, placards, postcards, sculptures and bumper stickers. Songs and poems have been dedicated to her. Russian officials even unveiled a statue of her in Mariupol, the Ukrainian city that has been bombed to the ground."

"Until recently, no one knew the true identity of Babushka Z. In fact, nobody was sure if she was even alive.

But she is a very real person. Her name is Anna Ivanovna and we tracked her down to Velyka Danylivka, a village near Kharkiv in north-eastern Ukraine where she lives with her husband, dogs, cats and rabbits.

The lively 69-year-old looks surprised when we show her pictures of the statue made in her image. "Do I really look so old?", she asks. "It's like a stranger is staring at me!"

But her story is very different from the image that the Russian media has been painting. She does not support the war.

"How can I support my people dying? My grandchildren and great-grandchildren were forced to go to Poland. We live in fear and terror."

So why did Anna greet soldiers with a Soviet flag? She says she has been misunderstood. She claims she confused the two Ukrainian soldiers offering her food with Russian soldiers.

"I was just happy that Russians would come and not fight with us. I was happy that we would unite again."

Anna did not put any political subtext into her act. The red flag, she says, is not the flag of the Soviet Union, not of Russia, but "the banner of love and happiness in every family, in every city, in every republic. Not of bloodshed. And whoever says otherwise, is wrong."

While Anna talked, the constant roar of artillery and fighting could be heard nearby. She didn't flinch once - she has become used to it.

"If I could speak to Vladimir Putin I would say, you've made a mistake. Us Ukrainian workers, what have we ever done to deserve this? We are the ones who are suffering the most."

But Anna is from the Soviet time, and reluctant to openly criticise the Russian leader.

"Putin is a president. A tsar, a king, an emperor.""

"Anna fears for her safety now. In Ukraine, she is being attacked online because she is seen as pro-Russian.

All her neighbours shun her. It's a small village and everyone knows each other.

"I'm not happy they've made me famous. Because in Ukraine, now they consider me a traitor."

But it's clear that the true scale of her fame only really becomes apparent to Anna at the end of our interview. As we say goodbye to her, she tries to give us her beloved red flag with the sickle and hammer.

"I don't want any trouble. I don't want people to ever use it against me.""

Yeah, great symbol for all Russia stands for. Old, ugly and living in the past.

[Letter from Prague]

7 hours ago, Harmon Rabb said:

Welcome aboard Letter from Prague!

Don't know if you are from Prague but I visited that city a few years back. Truly beautiful city.

Yeah.

I should note that this place was occupied by Russia and they only left in 1991, which is relatively recently (god I'm old). We can't match the hatred Ukraine or Poland has for Russia, because nobody can, but I think we're not far behind.

...

As for Taiwan. Since this is my area, I can say that anything happening to Taiwan is bad news for the whole world. China bloodlessly taking over Taiwan is bad, because it would put a lot of modern microprocessor fabs under their control. Imagine China deciding countries or companies that "insulted it", whatever that means this week, aren't getting any modern electronics?

Anything else than China taking Taiwan peacefully is worse. There' been talks about "how is Russia going to cope with not getting laptops and phones anymore, due to sanctions". If the fabs get blown up, this is everybody in the world not getting laptops, phones, cameras, drones, servers (so businesses can't grow as that often requires new infrastructure) and other things. (*) For about ten years or so, maybe more.

And if the US defends Taiwan and trade breaks between West and China ... that something I can't even begin to estimate, other than "nobody gets anything".

So China ****ing around with Taiwan is one of the worst thing that can happen other than nuclear war and doing nothing about climate change, in my eyes.

Lots of new fabs are being built in US and EU, but those take years and are there to serve demand and not as a replacement - so anything happening to Taiwan few years from now is still bad news.

(*): The "chip shortage" that cause people to be unable to buy cars was caused more by supply chain optimization shenanigans and is a lesson in fragility and antifragiity - Taiwan mostly makes the high end stuff, so it would impact computers and not cars. As for industrial machines, I'm not much of an expert here, but I think they typically use slightly older high end stuff, but the longer lifetimes would protect them somehow.

Edited June 15, 2022 by Letter_from_Prague
Less aggressive maybe.

[Grigb]

8 hours ago, Machor said:

And Buryatia, Kostroma, and the Jewish Oblast were among the top five for Ukraine searches as per Google Trends data that I posted about. 

Incidentally, while in my original post I hypothesized that the high ranking of Belgorod and Bryansk is due to bordering Ukraine, I am now wondering if the ranking reflects searches by Russian troops waiting to enter Ukraine - my data reflected the sum of the last three months.

Kostroma is interesting because it is somewhat different from Buryatia or Jewish Oblast or Dagestan. It is a deep province, but it is not as "bad" as these three. Furthermore it is hometown of 331st VDV Regiment.

[G.I. Joe]

1 hour ago, Letter_from_Prague said:

Yeah.

I should note that this place was occupied by Russia and they only left in 1991, which is relatively recently (god I'm old). We can't match the hatred Ukraine or Poland has for Russia, because nobody can, but I think we're not far behind.

...

As for Taiwan. Since this is my area, I can say that anything happening to Taiwan is bad news for the whole world. China bloodlessly taking over Taiwan is bad, because it would put a lot of modern microprocessor fabs under their control. Imagine China deciding countries or companies that "insulted it", whatever that means this week, aren't getting any modern electronics?

Anything else than China taking Taiwan peacefully is worse. There' been talks about "how is Russia going to cope with not getting laptops and phones anymore, due to sanctions". If the fabs get blown up, this is everybody in the world not getting laptops, phones, cameras, drones, servers (so businesses can't grow as that often requires new infrastructure) and other things. (*) For about ten years or so, maybe more.

And if the US defends Taiwan and trade breaks between West and China ... that something I can't even begin to estimate, other than "nobody gets anything".

So China ****ing around with Taiwan is one of the worst thing that can happen other than nuclear war and doing nothing about climate change, in my eyes.

Lots of new fabs are being built in US and EU, but those take years and are there to serve demand and not as a replacement - so anything happening to Taiwan few years from now is still bad news.

(*): The "chip shortage" that cause people to be unable to buy cars was caused more by supply chain optimization shenanigans and is a lesson in fragility and antifragiity - Taiwan mostly makes the high end stuff, so it would impact computers and not cars. As for industrial machines, I'm not much of an expert here, but I think they typically use slightly older high end stuff, but the longer lifetimes would protect them somehow.

Welcome aboard! Always good to have another perspective in the discussion.

Regarding feeling old, it sounds like you'll fit right in - I have the sneaking suspicion that as a soon-to-be 41-year-old as of next week, I might actually be bringing the average age here down a bit. It's definitely not the stereotypical computer game forum in that regard...

Excellent points regarding Taiwan. I certainly hope there is enough sanity among the PRC leadership to dissuade provoking such a disaster. Hopefully the "Economic Mutually Assured Destruction," coupled with the prohibitive difficulty of actually carrying out an invasion that @sburke outlined a few pages ago will help discourage anyone from attempting such a no-win move.

I have also been taking a brief look at the terrain, and to my admittedly untrained eye, Taiwan does look a bit like an attacker's worst nightmare in that regard. @Combatintman is far better qualified to comment on such matters than I am, and I do recall him posting something more or less to that effect over in General Discussion not too long ago...

[Aragorn2002]

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-14

"The Russian military leadership continues to expand its pool of eligible recruits by manipulating service requirements. Russian milblogger Yuri Kotyenok suggested that Russian authorities are preparing to increase the age limit for military service from 40 to 49 and to drop the existing requirement for past military service to serve in tank and motorized infantry units.[5] If true, the shift demonstrates the Kremlin's increasing desperation for recruits to fill frontline units, regardless of their poor skills. Kotyenok echoed calls made by other milbloggers to reduce the health requirements for those serving in rear and support roles.[6] Kotyenok additionally noted that while Russian recruits must have clean criminal records to serve, private military companies such as the Wagner Group will allow those with “mild misdemeanors” into service and that many of these low-level offenders have been mobilized into combat with Wagner in Donetsk and Luhansk. The Russian military leadership will likely continue efforts to expand the pool of eligible recruits, even at the cost of high-quality military personnel."

No surprises there...

[G.I. Joe]

6 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

Kotyenok additionally noted that while Russian recruits must have clean criminal records to serve, private military companies such as the Wagner Group will allow those with “mild misdemeanors” into service and that many of these low-level offenders have been mobilized into combat with Wagner in Donetsk and Luhansk. The Russian military leadership will likely continue efforts to expand the pool of eligible recruits, even at the cost of high-quality military personnel."

No surprises there...

No surprises indeed. Given Wagner's track record, I half expect them to quietly consider a criminal record a sign of the kind of people they're looking for...

(I'm having trouble not picturing the scene in Blazing Saddles where Hedley Lamar is recruiting new henchmen... )

Edited June 15, 2022 by G.I. Joe

[G.I. Joe]

7 hours ago, Calamine Waffles said:

There was an optionally manned A-10 programme at one point...

https://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news/defense/2012-02-24/unmanned-10-studied-future-close-air-support

Thanks! Yes, that rings a bell now that you mention it. Hasegawa even did a "what-if" special edition release of their venerable 1:72 scale A-10 model kit in a hypothetical UAV configuration .

Edited June 15, 2022 by G.I. Joe

[Huba]

8 hours ago, G.I. Joe said:

Yes, CAS in general is very likely going over to drones. I think the odds are excellent that the A-10 replacement will be a UCAV of some sort.

AFAIK USAF got the memo on CAS a looong way back, but their solution is to drop GBUs from high above, beyond the range of most threats. With a combination of stealth aircraft/ drones and powerful SEAD capabilities, it sounds like way to go for the US. I wonder how smaller countries that operate F-35 would do against RU air defences - thinking specifically about CAS here, which if done by GBU tossing allows aircraft to stay away from the line of contact. 

I recall the idea of ground launched JDAM somebody was advocating a while back, basically a GBU mounted on top of rocket engine with 10km+ range - now that sounds like something I think would be a great solution to many problems, and could easily have a cluster and thermobaric variants too. And if introduced in 1000 or 2000 lbs varieties, would make TOS-1 look like a toy.

Edited June 15, 2022 by Huba

[kraze]

49 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

Russian recruits must have clean criminal records to serve

Even that is not true. One of commanders of the infamous 64th that did warcrimes in Bucha got his data leaked and he did jail time for robbery. What is written on paper in Russia often differs from how it really is - as we learned by now.

In fact I wouldn't be surprised if that's far from a lone example and convicted guys have little problems getting into army as they are the ones who will be more willing to go an extra mile in doing what russians do best.

Edited June 15, 2022 by kraze

[Huba]

This kind of talk can be heard a bit from the US (former) officials lately. I find it unlikely to happen, but I bet it makes Putler feel uneasy. Although presenting Russia with reversed MiG Alley would be so cool...

 

Edited June 15, 2022 by Huba

[Huba]

Stoltenberg's press conference is on right now, he said precisely what the tweets below claim. He dodged question about Western tanks, but didn't deny the possibility of those being in the pipeline either. 

 

Edited June 15, 2022 by Huba

[Ultradave]

8 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Hmmm.  Mac versions should be "signed" when released to the public.  We pay for the certification, so would be silly if we don't use it!  I'll poke around to double check.

Steve

I'm not sure if I'm using the correct term. Perhaps not.

Mac users always get a message that the software can't be checked for viruses when attempting to install, and the default response is to move it to the trash (this is if you double click on the installer). The only other response is Cancel, which aborts. 

If we use the right-click, Open method, then the same or similar message appears but it asks if we want to open anyway. 

These happen when unpacking the installer, and again when running the installer.

A lot of Mac users new to Battlefront question this and have to be told how to go about the installation because many aren't even familiar with semi-bypassing that check by right-click Open.  

Hope that helps figure it out. It would save some questions if it worked like most other software.

Dave

[Grigb]

Murz published another rant. Interesting part is his discussion of conversation between Girkin and Kvatchkov (another infamous nationalist). Both of them are former officers. And considered wise men. Well, Kvatchov is a crazed antisemite but calm one. 

According to them federal mobilization is not called because it would show dramatic degradation of RU military system. [As if it was not apparent 20 years ago]. Current LDNR are idiotic and showed dramatic lack of many things.  

The specific example - there is no plan to provide PCs and MF printers to HQs of reserve formations. So, officers either have to buy everything themselves (but the prices are hiking due to sanctions) or fight using pen and paper. It is worse than in WW2 because there are no typewriters. Back to WW1 for LDNR reserve formations.

Nice Murz quote about the System I talked about (I will write about when I have little bit more time):

Quote

But no. The brain is not needed. As people had nothing, so nothing will happen. Because no one needs the brain and nervous system in working condition. Let the clumsy pedestrians run through puddles to attack. "There is no war without losses" and all that...

We need our battalions and regiments to have headquarters, the "brain of the army". But those who thought through the mobilization - no. And if there is no brain, there will be nothing but corpses taking the dead and wounded from the front. With any desperate heroism of soldiers, both "contract workers" of the NM LNR and OTHERS, and republican "mobs"...

BTW, it was always like this even during SU period. Especially during SU period. 

another interesting quote 

Quote

And now we are engaged in straining the remnants of our combat-ready infantry against the Ukrainian defense. So far, these remnants are somehow saved from the final extermination by the work of the gunners, but the losses are coming, and to compensate them with diabetics and disabled people is simply ridiculous.

As you can see the one way to collapse RU army is to kill/degrade artillery. It holds everything in place.

[Grigb]

Another post with interesting tidbits.

Lisichansk "neck" manpower

Quote

Let's be correct, at least in the area of the "neck" of the Lisichansk boiler, which still is not being closed, even the combined forces of the LPR and the DPR simply do not have the strength to "beat their foreheads" against something...

 

Why Donetsk is not covered by arty

Quote

As I have already written, the artillery that was supposed to cover Donetsk from what is happening now has been moving to the neck of the "Lisichansk boiler" for some time. Together with the most combat-ready units of 1 AK. When trying to personally organize another attack, General Kutuzov was killed. So this whole strategic maneuver for the APU is absolutely no secret...

 

Drone applicability

Quote

Since gasoline-powered Orlan-10 UAVs, capable of hanging for hours over the enemy's near rear, or similar machines for counter-battery warfare are critically lacking, the artillery of the 1st NM Corps was decided to be used with the greatest efficiency - to support the offensive. When you need to take out fortifications on the very front line or in the second line, there are quite enough "toy" maviks. Actually, only today I handed over another "Mavic 3" to the Donetsk people there. Of course, this does not solve the problem of undelivered enemy batteries in the rear, which wake up during the attack, but it is at least some efficiency...

 

Avdiivka manpower

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Kassad, who is raving about the frontal assaults of Avdiivka, allegedly being an alternative to what is happening, is recommended to let go and look at the same Ukrainian map in the area of Avdiivka. There, too, people have run out for frontal attacks in the style of February-March-April, and our people have been climbing around Avdiivka for a long time through Verkhnetoretskoye-Novobakhmutovka.

 

Donetsk - but I do not know. This one smells fishy (and could be fishy). 

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Well, the APU, of course, are interested in pulling artillery from the neck of the "boiler", and therefore they are arranging "Lugansk-2014" in Donetsk. I do not exclude, by the way, that, as Strelkov writes, the AFU may try to take some positions near Donetsk so that both artillery and infantry are returned there. Actually, if I were in their place, I would be transferring forces for this right now, watching how the Donetsk infantry flows further and further around Vrubovka and how they bypass the Golden through Kamyshevakha. If such an attack by the APU succeeds, it will "freeze" the front for a long time, and in a configuration that is not the most advantageous for us. Well, that is, another general may go and kill himself on the Ukrainian map before that, but then the front will "freeze".

 

Why Ukraine debacle is NOT just Putin delusion.

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And now, as Grubnik quite correctly noted, the civilian population of Donetsk pays with their blood for the long-term stories of Russian generals and their plainclothes singers about how everything is fine in our army, everything is there and "we beat Ukrainians with one left hand."

 

[Beleg85]

6 hours ago, Aragorn2002 said:

He won't be forgotten. Nor his killers.

His father was also Maidan-era activist and local historian, they both standed together on barricades despite generational differences in viewing Soviet Union. Both were interviewed many times, you can read their very interesting stories in Marci Shore's book The Ukrainian Night. A good read for western readers explaining "hidden mechanics" behind Ukrainian revolution and their stuborness in this war.

The additional tragic side is that he is another of many victims from Maidan generation that willfully created civil society in Ukraine, rejecting this passive post-soviet mentality. If you think the guy was just 16 when beaten by Berkut in 2014... and there are of course others. This is truly "citizens in uniforms" phenomenon on their side. Russians are sending their worst, while Ukrainians the best and brightest (and basically everybody else, too)- and here Steve is right, this fact will play strongly for Ukraine side in longer term.

Edited June 15, 2022 by Beleg85