How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[fireship4]

20 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I didn't see anybody else on the tank, but I did miss the apparently flaming tank commander bailing out, so it does seem the three crew did get out.  There's too many jump cuts and passage of time to conclude much more than that.

Three can be seen escaping in the same shot as the burning tank, but at 1:33 two approach two standing and an apparent third sitting.  We have no conclusive proof, but the video suggests these 5 are at least from the same engagement.

[kraze]

4 hours ago, Machor said:

A schoolgirl in Dagestan protested against the war during the last day of high school ceremony: "No to war!" "Freedom for Ukraine!" "Putin is a devil!" According to a tweet in the replies, her and her mother [Where's the father? This is Dagestan, not Canada.] have since released a video where they fully apologize.

Also of note is the very fact that this video was uploaded and began circulating on social media. Remember that Dagestan has a very large share of the Russian personnel losses in Ukraine [Where's the girl's father?], and is one of Russia's poorest regions, its GDP per capita by PPP equal to Azerbaijan, whereas Moscow is equal to the Netherlands, and St. Petersburg to South Korea [This was in 2009; it had probably gotten better since then, but will now fall down again.]:

I confess when @LongLeftFlank started speculating that the war may lead to the Russian Federation's dissolution some two months (?) ago, I was reading it with a smirk. I'm taking it seriously now.

Moscow and Petersburg GDP PPPs are just as paper weight as their army. Netherlands? South Korea? Lol no. Dagestan most likely has it even worse than states on paper.

Remember - dollar is 62 rubles now. Lowest since 2014. In reality it's 300.

[chuckdyke]

16 minutes ago, kraze said:

South Korea?

South Korea would be extremely well prepared. Lot of the daily life in Seoul takes place at their subway system Every station is linked to a subterranean shopping district. Frankly, I have never seen anything before like it in my life. The place is a timecapsule. That's fifty years into the future seen through a Dutch Australian's eyes. I won't say anything about your comments about the Netherlands, the weakness of the Ukraine in this conflict. Diplomacy is not one of your strong points. 

Edited May 23, 2022 by chuckdyke

[Combatintman]

2 hours ago, fireship4 said:

I agree with Mr. Telenko here:

https://nitter.net/TrentTelenko/status/1528521329275768832#m

The video was posted here some pages back (it's the video of a T72B3 on the run being hit in the rear for those that don't follow the link) and it's the first time I've seen an RU tank use smoke - not pop smoke, since it's apparently using diesel injection.  Why?  Are all the RU smoke launchers broken?  No grenades?  Poisonous?

Injecting fuel into the exhaust to generate smoke has been standard fare on Russian tanks for years.  Having smoke dischargers is just an added bonus.  I wouldn't read too much into this.

[chuckdyke]

1 minute ago, Combatintman said:

Injecting fuel into the exhaust to generate smoke has been standard fare on Russian tanks for years.

Their Diesel Engines could run on marine-diesel. The smoke generated looks a little familiar. 

[kraze]

46 minutes ago, chuckdyke said:

South Korea would be extremely well prepared. Lot of the daily life in Seoul takes place at their subway system Every station is linked to a subterranean shopping district. Frankly, I have never seen anything before like it in my life. The place is a timecapsule. That's fifty years into the future seen through a Dutch Australian's eyes. I won't say anything about your comments about the Netherlands, the weakness of the Ukraine in this conflict. Diplomacy is not one of your strong points. 

I was commenting on stats that Moscow has a GDP of South Korea and Petersburg has GDP of Netherlands, which they most certainly do not have.

So friendly fire.

Edited May 23, 2022 by kraze

[chuckdyke]

53 minutes ago, kraze said:

GDP of South Korea

1.702 trillion USD (2021)

 

53 minutes ago, kraze said:

GDP of Netherlands,

1.012 trillion USD (2021) For what it is worth. 21st century is going to be the Asian century. Europe is doing what it is doing best imploding once again. Russia GDP is below that of South Korea. 

Edited May 23, 2022 by chuckdyke

[LongLeftFlank]

42 minutes ago, chuckdyke said:

1.702 trillion USD (2021)

 

1.012 trillion USD (2021) For what it is worth. 21st century is going to be the Asian century. Europe is doing what it is doing best imploding once again. Russia GDP is below that of South Korea. 

Your last few posts gave me a chuckle.

But note we are already entering the 4th decade of the Pacific century, if you count, as I do, from GHW Bush vomiting into the lap of the Japanese PM in 1991.

As you'll recall, back then the Imperial Palace grounds were assessed as being worth more than all of California or Canada, and Sony and Lexus were redefining their technologies.

...America came back during the tech/web revolution of course, but then promptly used it to de-job/offshore about 2/3 of the Western middle classes.

So in addition to the reclaiming by China of its historical proportion of about 1/3 of humanity's GDP, you also have the South Asian diaspora flooding the world with low cost, high quality technical talent.

Anyway, off topic....

[Huba]

More Scholz bashing. Bild allegedly accessed internal  German MoD document that states that they had 32 ready Marders that are no longer in use and could be delivered straight away. Also already in march Rheinmetall declared that it could get another 100 Marders ready in 6 weeks, but still didn't even started the preparations cause it's blocked by the chancellery:

https://www.bild.de/politik/inland/politik-inland/seit-ueber-vier-wochen-ampel-blockiert-marder-lieferung-fuer-die-ukraine-80175356.bild.html#fromWall

[Haiduk]

11 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

DLPR do not have internal defensive lines as far as I know, so if Ukraine sneaks around the side it should be nothing more than terrain and improvised defenses.  In 2014 Ukraine made very good progress in the middle part of Donestsk, which is why Russia went over the border and smashed them.  This time, though, the Russians are already on that side of the border.  If Ukraine can break through then Donetsk should be vulnerable from the rear.

Of course, they had own defense lines - it' impossible not to have it, when you have position warfare sinse 2015. Though, many Russian sources all time criticized quality of most of theese fortifiacations in comparison with Ukrainian.  

PS. about video with two tanks - "Zirkuni" = Tsyrkuny

[fireship4]

3 hours ago, Combatintman said:

Injecting fuel into the exhaust to generate smoke has been standard fare on Russian tanks for years.  Having smoke dischargers is just an added bonus.  I wouldn't read too much into this.

I am aware (I swear one of my Panthers did it once in the Red Thunder demo), what I am saying is why have we never seen the smoke dischargers in use: is it just uncommon, some statistical effect of the type of video coverage, or something else?  You would have thought we would have seen them in use given the number of times we've seen 'tanks in distress'.

Furthermore, smoke injection is more defensive compared to dischargers which I suppose can be either - and at least in some cases for the Russians they are designed to be used offensively (during the attack) as I understand.

 

[Haiduk]

In nearest 1-2 weeks we will see culmination of Russian offensive. Their pressure now is unprecedent. Lyman and Avdiivka today were shelled severly during several hours almost with all calibers and systems. Siverodonetsk and Bakhmut also under fire. Russian use own usual "burned earth" tactic. 

Russian penetrating around Popasna stabilized by elements of 80th air-assault brigade, but heavy clashes are ongoing. Villages Viktorivka, Oleksandropillia, western part of Komyshuvakha still a grey zone and arena of clashes. Russians are digging in Volodymyrivka and in 1,5..2 km south from Vasylivka - Lypove villages. Locals wrote in twitters - the endless stream of Russian armor and concentration of troops in Alchevsk, Kadiivka, Pervomaisk town. Reportedly at least 18 BTGs now on Popasna - Bakhmut axis

Russian commander of "Popasma group", mayor general Avdeev is relatively young general and he uses more flexible tactic, than direct assaults after artillery fire. He use HUGE amount of artillery and aviation support to supress resistsanse but instead direct assaults he uses outflanking and infiltrations of relativelly big number of small combat groups (1-2 reinforces platoons), consisting of mix of 76th VDV division  and PMC units. Our soldiers point that PMC have many experienced troopers, which passed many wars - they are dangerous enemy, which never surrender and never take prisoners. This actions and lack of troops on Popasna-Bakhmut axis (as well as retreating of some TD units) forced our command to pull our right flank. 

Today UKR troops on Svitlodarsk bulge destroyed the bridge through reservoir of Luhan' river and abandoned Myronivskyi settlement. Looks like we will retreat soon also from Svitlodarsk beyond the river and all efforts will be concentrate on defense of Bakhmut area. 

Destroyed bridge near Myronivskyi

Russian occupants (PMC?) in Myronivskyi

And hypothetical solution...

Edited May 23, 2022 by Haiduk

[poesel]

59 minutes ago, Huba said:

 

https://www.bild.de/politik/inland/politik-inland/seit-ueber-vier-wochen-ampel-blockiert-marder-lieferung-fuer-die-ukraine-80175356.bild.html#fromWall

Bild is trash. I wouldn’t believe them if they reported that the sky is blue and grass is green. 

[chuckdyke]

1 hour ago, LongLeftFlank said:

1991.

Collapse of the Soviet Union, the reason I marked the end of the 20th century. It started with the assassination of Franz Ferdinand before it was still the 19th century. A short but for Europe a disastrous century, just when they picked up the pieces along came putin. I don't print that name with a capital. 

[Huba]

11 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Yes, in the immediate frontline area that is true.  But where I'm envisioning Ukraine attacking is many KMs to the rear of those positions.

I'd appreciate that too! 

My impression is this:

Ukraine always expected Russia to renew the offensive into Ukrainian territory.  Ukraine fortified a number of places well to the rear, including Slavyansk and Kramatorsk.

Despite all of Russia's bluster about Ukraine attacking into Donbas, I don't think they ever really believed that would happen and Russia is both cheap and lazy when it comes to warfare.  I've assumed that means Russia didn't insist on there being defenses in depth like Ukraine.

Steve

That's what I had in mind mostly. Not an insurmountable problem, but a problem nonetheless, compared to advancing in open country without pre-prepared defenses.

More on Crimea, here's a new article by RUSI arguing that it is the one region that if threatened, could lead to nuclear crisis. I'm not sure if I agree with the premise that the peninsula should be treated differently than any other occupied UA territory. Allowing nuclear blackmail brings the obvious implications to whole world order and shouldn't be allowed. If that was to happen, I wonder if it would be the West or Russia who would blinks first.

Edited May 23, 2022 by Huba

[SteelRain]

12 hours ago, dan/california said:

Is there a chance in bleep of getting the entire transcript in English? I flunked German comprehensively in high school and was too traumatized to ever try again.

@dan/california

Roderich Kiesewetter says, that Scholz wanting Ukraine to lose the war by not delivering what Ukrainians want and instead offer stuff that is nice to have, but wasn't asked for by Ukrainians. To emphasize his claim he mentions the Gepard SPAAG. The Ukrainians never had the Gepards's on their list. They asked for IFV's and Tanks. The Gepard offer was made by the industry and picked up by the politics. He also mentions that 100 Marder IFV's and 100 Leopard Tanks are ready for delivery by the industry and additional 30 Marders could come from the Bundeswehr. 

One of the other Guests, Carlo Masala, says that the SPD and Scholz tried to protract the delivery of heavy weapons in fear of nuclear escalation until they were forced to deliver something, cause the rest of the world was already delivering too. He also notes that a part of the German government is paralyzed by the threat of nuclear escalation. 

*edit

Basically there is that hazy mood throughout the show that parts of the current administration, Scholz and parts of the EU would go back to the pre war status with Russia as soon as possible and that this is the case for all the half assed proposals.
Also noteworthy is the contribution by Jan van Aken from the "Die Linke", a Left wing party that is mostly known for its pro Russian politics, who says all the sanctions don't work as well as they should and that they are bypassed regularly. He says that in order to show real support for Ukraine, the EU can and should do much more to get independent of Russian resource delivery.

Hope this helps.
 

Edited May 23, 2022 by SteelRain

[Huba]

So is this Excalibur or what? I'm not sure if the news was posted here, but I just found out that Canada allegedly sent a batch of Excaliburs together with it's M777s, back in April.

 

[Haiduk]

Russians now assaulting Lyman. Reportedly they captured northern part of the town

Edited May 23, 2022 by Haiduk

[Huba]

Just now, Haiduk said:

Russians now assaulting Lyman. Reportedly they captured northern part of the town

Here's a video from a few minutes ago. Looks like hell:

 

[LongLeftFlank]

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

he uses outflanking and infiltrations of relativelly big number of small combat groups (1-2 reinforces platoons), consisting of mix of 76th VDV division and PMC units. Our soldiers point that PMC have many experienced troopers, which passed many wars - they are dangerous enemy, which never surrender and never take prisoners. This actions and lack of troops on Popasna-Bakhmut axis (as well as retreating of some TD units) forced our command to pull our right flank. 

I like the little 'orc' icons.

(this may be coincidence, but in the pre Peter Jackson era, AD&D depicted orcs as 'pig men').

May it go for the Wagnerites as Khrushchev said of a different battle:

The next three days will be terrible. Either we hold out, or the Germans take Kursk. They are staking everything on one card. It's a matter of life and death for them. We must ensure that they break their necks.

Edited May 23, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[BornGinger]

On 5/21/2022 at 9:52 PM, Battlefront.com said:

No less than 17,247 men have died fighting as members of the LPR military, and another 8,931 were wounded.

 

This must be the number of dead and wounded since they decided to go independent in Luhansk. It seems a bit too large number if counted since the Rus invasion in February.

[Huba]

Apparently UK is sending M119 guns to Ukraine. Nice to have for sure, but rather puny compared to anything else shooting there. I'm really hoping for much more concrete being announced today on Ramstein-2.

 

[Haiduk]

The driver, who evacuates civilians from Lyman runs away from the town under shelling

 

Edited May 23, 2022 by Haiduk

[LongLeftFlank]

2 hours ago, poesel said:

Bild is trash. I wouldn’t believe them if they reported that the sky is blue and grass is green. 

Reuniting the 'Axis of Weasels?'

 

And as usual, Galeev has these kinds of weak people zeroed....

 

Edited May 23, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[akd]

@sburke @Kinophile

Possibly the Su-25 shot down yesterday had a Major-General (Kanamat Botashev) at the controls: