How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[c3k]

8 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Most of the stuff I've been listening to and seeing is, thankfully, not saying we're in for mass starvation events.  Higher prices at a time when everything, including food, was going up is the primary problem.  However...

Food is one of those things which gets situations to go from bad to worse rather quickly.  I agree it's still a regional issue by-and-large, but we're all on the same ball of rock and water, so it's going to have some effect everywhere even beyond pricing.

There is a general, overall problem with the world we inhabit today... too many f'n people consuming way too much stuff.  As the pandemic clearly demonstrated, the entire world is to a large extent living day-to-day with little in reserve and limited ability to quickly ramp up production.  Oil prices are going up because suppliers are largely maxed out, fuel prices are going up because refinery capacity is less than product demand, food prices are soaring because excess production isn't practical any more, budgets are under strain from climate change, can kicking on major infrastructure replacement is at an end, etc.

It's never a good time to have a murderous war of aggression, but Putin's timing for launching this one definitely sucks.

Steve

Shutting down sources of US oil production helped worsen the supply imbalance of oil products...and raised the prices. 

Massive printing of money has led to inflationary pressures resulting in raised prices.

I'll ignore the statement about climate change and budgets. (But, if you'd like, you can venmo me some money and I'll apply it to carbon offsets in your name.)

Fiat currencies, politicians fueling the financial crisis, kicking the can down the road to future generations, deficit spending, short-sighted government policies...that is what is causing the current inflationary spiral.

But I'm not sure what that has to do with Ukraine kicking Russia's ass?

[chrisl]

3 hours ago, SteelRain said:

@dan/california

Roderich Kiesewetter says, that Scholz wanting Ukraine to lose the war by not delivering what Ukrainians want and instead offer stuff that is nice to have, but wasn't asked for by Ukrainians. To emphasize his claim he mentions the Gepard SPAAG. The Ukrainians never had the Gepards's on their list. They asked for IFV's and Tanks. The Gepard offer was made by the industry and picked up by the politics. He also mentions that 100 Marder IFV's and 100 Leopard Tanks are ready for delivery by the industry and additional 30 Marders could come from the Bundeswehr. 

One of the other Guests, Carlo Masala, says that the SPD and Scholz tried to protract the delivery of heavy weapons in fear of nuclear escalation until they were forced to deliver something, cause the rest of the world was already delivering too. He also notes that a part of the German government is paralyzed by the threat of nuclear escalation. 

*edit

Basically there is that hazy mood throughout the show that parts of the current administration, Scholz and parts of the EU would go back to the pre war status with Russia as soon as possible and that this is the case for all the half assed proposals.
Also noteworthy is the contribution by Jan van Aken from the "Die Linke", a Left wing party that is mostly known for its pro Russian politics, who says all the sanctions don't work as well as they should and that they are bypassed regularly. He says that in order to show real support for Ukraine, the EU can and should do much more to get independent of Russian resource delivery.

Hope this helps.
 

The note about part of the government being paralyzed by fear of nuclear escalation makes a lot of sense.  Germans older than about 50 grew up expecting their country (whether east or west) to become a nuclear battleground because of the USSR and the US.  Even in the US you could see or read analysis in the regular news about how many German towns and of what size would get obliterated by tactical nukes of various yields.  And then Chernobyl happened and heightened that anxiety.  It was big in the late 80s when I spent some time there shortly after Chernobyl, and that generation (my age and a bit older) is now in power.  It even is a major theme in the TV show Dark, where the AKW (nuclear power plant) is at the center of the supernatural happenings.  Germany made a deal with the devil (Russia) to be able to continue using fossil fuels while they develop renewables, rather than go full on nuclear like France, and now there's a faction that is still tied to the root nuclear fears that led to that deal. 

[Battlefront.com]

New video of Bilohorivka bridgehead and other stuff.  At the start of the drone footage you can see the staging area on the western bank, then the first bridge (my Yellow) already set up with tug still in place, dismounts and a BMP rushing over, then a strike somewhere near the crossing point, and then aftermath.

One interesting little detail is the very start of the drone footage shows a BMP traveling southward along the power lines beyond the embarkation trail that heads eastward.  Guarding the flank?

Steve

 

[Vacillator]

4 hours ago, fireship4 said:

I swear one of my Panthers did it once in the Red Thunder demo

You mean 'Pop smoke'?  Various German tanks have this in-game, saved my bacon (well Panther actually) in Barkmann's Corner Re-visited recently.  Or do you mean you were surprised the TacAI did it?

[dan/california]

11 hours ago, billbindc said:

 

The article Krugman linked is quite interesting on the economics of Russia sanctions but the thread gets at something more interesting. Well worth reading.

Worth the read, both the thread and the article.

[sburke]

1 hour ago, billbindc said:

India is responsible for less than 1% of global wheat exports. Yes it's going to be a tough year but it is one factor among many

Agreed was just noting to your point there is other stuff going on regarding food prices that has nothing to do with Ukraine.

[Battlefront.com]

43 minutes ago, c3k said:

Shutting down sources of US oil production helped worsen the supply imbalance of oil products...and raised the prices. 

There's a lot of factors involved in this.  However, the bottleneck at the moment is refinery capacity and not supply capacity.  The folks who are returning to "Drill Baby Drill" mentality seem to overlook this rather important aspect of supply and demand.

Here is a very recent article in Forbes talking about the US fuel price issues:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/rrapier/2022/05/18/why-5-a-gallon-gasoline-looks-inevitable/?sh=7b21cc013e04

43 minutes ago, c3k said:

But I'm not sure what that has to do with Ukraine kicking Russia's ass?

Mostly a counter argument to the weasels that are advocating that we should make peace with Putin so that everything will go back to the way things were.  The way things were wasn't great and was already headed towards worse even without Putin's war.  50+ years of short sighted economic systems is finally catching up with everybody.

Steve

[LongLeftFlank]

As is my wont, I periodically browse various pro-Russian feeds for notable items that may not be total fabrication.  My purpose here is neither alarmism nor defeatism. Simply put,  complacency costs lives.

Nobody expects everything to go UA's way at all times in a high intensity war, of course, but I do continue to worry about their ability to mount mechanised offensive operations (as opposed to infantry attacks). And I've been eyeing that Zaporizhe front too.

Newsweek (not pro-Russian AFAIK although I haven't read it for news since, like, high school), 14 May:

https://www.newsweek.com/russian-troops-destroy-2-battalions-ukrainian-tanks-mid-preparation-1708306

The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) said the attack took place near the village of Vishnevoe in the south-eastern Ukrainian region of Zaporizhzhia Oblast.

The MoD said Russian troops destroyed two mechanized battalions of tanks and infantry fighting vehicles with artillery fire and drones as well as incoming fire from tanks and armored vehicles.

The Russian MoD said as a result of the attack, they destroyed 26 Ukrainian tanks, 12 infantry fighting vehicles, and killed around 100 soldiers.

The Russian military also said that the attack was launched due to the work of reconnaissance troops using drones.

(Did they mention enough times that this is Russians claiming this, lol?) 

...Maybe battalions aren't the size they used to be or sumfink?  But while this isn't exactly Kasserine Pass, still, it's a black eye for one UA battalion, even if inflated (e.g. all hits claimed as kills).

Edit:  ooh, even better, video from the Sun! Where's the Page Three Girl? 

 

 

Edited May 23, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[panzermartin]

1 hour ago, akd said:

Russia’s wheat exports are not banned.  Try again.

Yes indeed. I thought, almost everything was sanctioned but there is still significant trade still going on, even with their rival enemies US.  

[FancyCat]

29 minutes ago, c3k said:

Shutting down sources of US oil production helped worsen the supply imbalance of oil products...and raised the prices. 

Massive printing of money has led to inflationary pressures resulting in raised prices.

I'll ignore the statement about climate change and budgets. (But, if you'd like, you can venmo me some money and I'll apply it to carbon offsets in your name.)

Fiat currencies, politicians fueling the financial crisis, kicking the can down the road to future generations, deficit spending, short-sighted government policies...that is what is causing the current inflationary spiral.

But I'm not sure what that has to do with Ukraine kicking Russia's ass?

No offense but everyone seems to have forgotten COVID, and while Western countries have to robust healthcare systems and vaccines aplenty, that does not apply universally, so for the duration of the pandemic, many countries with lower wealth were forced into economically devastating lockdowns to preserve their medical systems, and the lives of their citizens while inflicting much economic damage. This continues with China, recall the amount of things made in China, then recall their lockdowns which essentially freeze entire metropolitan regions for a decent period of time,

Supply shock shortages are the cause of inflation. Always has been since COVID began. You cannot expect the world to maintain Just in time logistics and not see increased costs from the massive disruptions in shipping, manufacturing, transit. The fact that seemingly inflation is rising despite the "end of covid" ignores the fact China literally still have Shanghai locked down, so all that disruption of shipping, logistics, manufacturing is still ongoing.

Active oil production was not impacted by the Biden administration. Our oil industry is privately owned, not controlled by the government. That means what's good for the government (lower oil costs) isn't good for oil companies. Oil industry isn't drilling, isn't capitalizing on expanding oil production in order to ensure higher oil prices stay for longer, ensuring more profit. A auction of land for oil production exploration expired with no bidders.

Food prices, I don't think many here appreciate the situation, increasing food costs affect the poor the most and after the economically dire impact of COVID on many poorer countries, rising food costs and the production of food will only pile more burden on them. Arab Spring comes to mind.

100% the west needs to reopen Ukraine and ensure it's victory, not in the least to support global stability.

[Battlefront.com]

5 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

The MoD said Russian troops destroyed two mechanized battalions of tanks and infantry fighting vehicles with artillery fire and drones as well as incoming fire from tanks and armored vehicles.

The Russian MoD said as a result of the attack, they destroyed 26 Ukrainian tanks, 12 infantry fighting vehicles, and killed around 100 soldiers.

Putting aside the obviously flawed source of this information, it isn't even internally consistent   This is ONE battalion's worth of tanks and IFVs, not TWO.  But then again, Russia thinks 13 guys is a company, so there is that.

Steve

[FancyCat]

Mind you, American oil companies were hammered the last time oil prices fell hard, the reluctance to increase capital expenses therefore increasing production can trace back to needing to pay off debt and look good for investors.

There are foreign factors that may result in lower oil prices anywho, Biden is racing to open up Venezuela, and normalize with Iran. Those two factors could see significant drops of oil production. China continues to do lockdowns that significantly hit oil demand, so production may be freed for elsewhere.

But there are also actors who wish for higher prices to remain, most countries have state owned oil companies, Saudi Arabia, OPEC is literally a cartel, asking Biden why he can't lower oil prices when he can't force oil companies to drill, as a literal cartel controls much of the world's oil reserves....and dictates pricing accordingly is just ignoring reality.

[Harmon Rabb]

This can't be real because the Russians destroyed Ukraine's entire air force. 

Must be leaked footage from the new Top Gun movie.

[Battlefront.com]

Some NYT charts to put US' aid to Ukraine into some context:

 

 

I am surprised by the Jordon comparison.  I didn't realize how much we sent over there.  The others don't surprise me at all.

This why any US politician claiming we should put the breaks on Ukraine aid because of spending concerns is either dishonest or ill informed or both.

Steve

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/05/20/upshot/ukraine-us-aid-size.html?campaign_id=29&emc=edit_up_20220523&instance_id=62158&nl=the-upshot&regi_id=77867169&segment_id=93110&te=1&user_id=06eb42ecc9056dd32ea63af0c30707b6

[FancyCat]

The good thing about Germany, while yes they are being so useless, Ukraine can mobilize public opinion and the opposition and coalition partners of the SPD to push on the chancellor. Hopefully this results in Germany being less useless soon.

[danfrodo]

(As per Steve, above "dishonest or ill informed" -- the answer is "dishonest")

Meanwhile, NYTimes (full disclosure, I am subscriber) editorial board says Ukraine should negotiate away territory and it's bad to upset Putler and that UKR can't take back all it's territory anyway.  That is a disgraceful editorial.  UKR might, in the end, have to concede to some of Russia's thievery, but why would they do it before it becomes a necessity?   Would Putin negotiate away territory if he didn't have to -- hell no!

To those saying that we don't want to humiliate Russia w total defeat, I say that's absurd.  Have they learned nothing?  Letting Putin off the hook just means he will immediately start planning his next nefarious criminal adventures.  Small stuff like assassinating every critic and outspoken ex-pat who fled Russia.  Then bigger stuff, like stirring up fight in Moldova.  He'll use Russian minorities in Baltic states to ratchet up ethnic/political tensions.  Then maybe steal some more land from Georgia or wherever.  Politically/militarily annex Belarus.  Continue to poison the political processes in democracies.  Buying off powerful politicians and influencers in democracies. 

And that's not even mentioning the physical sabotage he might decide to perform against those that helped Ukraine, like  Cyber attacks, arson at critical infrastructure. 

Solidly defeating Russia matters to the future of the world's democracies a lot more than NYTimes editorial staff seems to understand.  He's a rabid dog and need to be as weakened as possible.  If Russia removes Putin, then they've got a chance to be part of the civilized world again, but that is the minimum step one.  And the worse they are defeated the better the chance he is removed.

[FancyCat]

And no, things like tax cuts or less regulation and cheaper costs of production that Biden could do, wouldn't help. It would just be nationalizing the oil industry's debt, while letting them keep the profits. Nothing about cutting taxes or shredding regulations can tell a oil company to drill. And nothing American oil companies can do, outweighs the ability of OPEC to set prices to a certain level via controlling production. The American oil boom ended cause Saudi Arabia stepped on the gas pedal and dropped prices hard by increasing production, causing a cascade of mergers and cutting of expenses for oil companies operating in the U.S.

The cost of extracting oil from the U.S will always be higher than the cost of extracting oil from Saudi Arabia, and the oil company extracting from the Arabian desert is literally owned by the royal family of Saudi Arabia.

I mean the U.S could nationalize the oil industry and like many members of OPEC, provide oil domestically at a discount but that's not realistic.

I mean the most realistic options for lowering oil prices isn't tax cuts or less regulations, and since Saudi Arabia's crown prince hates America being all fussy over the dead journalist, the only option is forging ahead with opening up Venezuela and Iran.

[danfrodo]

oh, forgot link that discussed the NYT editorial.  There's a great UA soldier music video near the end, by the way. 

NOTE:  LIBERAL SITE, ENTER AT YOUR OWN PERIL

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/5/22/2099655/-Ukraine-Update-Ukraine-is-not-interested-in-compromise-or-concessions-nor-should-it

 

 

[Battlefront.com]

OK, let's back away from the oil political stuff.  People who think that the entire world revolves around one person aren't worth arguing with, so no need to establish a counter point.

Steve

[LongLeftFlank]

Again, browsing pro-Russian feeds for stuff that isn't prop...

1.  Bombardment of Liman town. That distinctive round reservoir appears on the left, so I think this is still the western outskirts

2. Popasna salient:  'Assault on the outskirts of Kamyshevakhi by  Russian Marine Corps'  Note tactical use of transport (?) helos. 

3.  As several have noted here, in drone world, open trenches = prefab graves. No really, at least one guy gets buried....

 

Edited May 23, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[Battlefront.com]

Graphic language, but I think we are all old enough to handle it.  "Campfire" rant by a Wagner soldier that they are really waging a race war to preserve a dominant white Russia.  Why he thinks waging a war against a largely white nation using Asiatic forces is going to help the cause any... well... racist nationalists don't tend to be very deep thinkers

 

[dan/california]

1 hour ago, LongLeftFlank said:

As is my wont, I periodically browse various pro-Russian feeds for notable items that may not be total fabrication.  My purpose here is neither alarmism nor defeatism. Simply put,  complacency costs lives.

Nobody expects everything to go UA's way at all times in a high intensity war, of course, but I do continue to worry about their ability to mount mechanised offensive operations (as opposed to infantry attacks). And I've been eyeing that Zaporizhe front too.

Newsweek (not pro-Russian AFAIK although I haven't read it for news since, like, high school), 14 May:

https://www.newsweek.com/russian-troops-destroy-2-battalions-ukrainian-tanks-mid-preparation-1708306

The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) said the attack took place near the village of Vishnevoe in the south-eastern Ukrainian region of Zaporizhzhia Oblast.

The MoD said Russian troops destroyed two mechanized battalions of tanks and infantry fighting vehicles with artillery fire and drones as well as incoming fire from tanks and armored vehicles.

The Russian MoD said as a result of the attack, they destroyed 26 Ukrainian tanks, 12 infantry fighting vehicles, and killed around 100 soldiers.

The Russian military also said that the attack was launched due to the work of reconnaissance troops using drones.

(Did they mention enough times that this is Russians claiming this, lol?) 

...Maybe battalions aren't the size they used to be or sumfink?  But while this isn't exactly Kasserine Pass, still, it's a black eye for one UA battalion, even if inflated (e.g. all hits claimed as kills).

Edit:  ooh, even better, video from the Sun! Where's the Page Three Girl? 

 

 

To the extent Russian video/and or claims have ANY bearing on reality, what this demonstrates is why Zelensky spends all day every day screaming for better anti aircraft systems. You simply cannot conduct mechanized offensive operations when the other side has drones up and communicating with effective artillery. If we want the Ukrainians to be able to actually win this thing they need more help with this. If the systems are so bloody complicated that they need to be run Lockheed/Raytheon contractors that "volunteered for the Ukrainian foreign legion" then get it DONE. If there are anti drone systems where the only four working vehicles are at the Yuma proving grounds, get the bleeping things on a C-5/17 and I am sure the Ukrainians and the aforementioned "foreign legion volunteers" will right up a lovely report when it is all over.

 

[scarletto]

I have spent just over a week in Medyka  and in the Ukraine, with an Aid Agency, been back a few weeks now. Besides the crossing being busy, but well organised id say, where we went to deliver aid/pick up refugees, the one soldier i spoke to, was adamant that they would beat the Russians. Not casual bravado, but a real chest beater.  The area we were in had been liberated by the Ukraine Army. If i was a scrap dealer id be heading south   Saw a lot of damage, shot down Russian plane, came under Russian shell fire (2-300 metres away) still felt like the countryside was still in 1941 with a homage in places to 2022.

[Battlefront.com]

I am curious why Ukraine seems to be unable or unwilling to commit new units into the fight in Donbas.  Shifting forces around and using TD forces beyond their capabilities is not enough.

Russia has gone over on the defensive in Kherson, so that allowed (apparently) two battalions of the 80th Air Assault Brigade to be deployed to Kharkiv and Popasna bulge.  But that's a piecemeal approach to what is definitely an operational level threat.  The situation there calls for a more substantial counter attack or, at a minimum, more forces to bottle the Russians up like in Izyum.

As for Severodonetsk, it's amazing they've held out for as long as they have and losing it isn't of strategic importance, especially because defensive lines improve by withdrawing over the river.  Evacuating the forces there before they can't reasonably retreat seems to be prudent at this point if there's no cavalry riding to the rescue.

The big question still is... how much force does Russia have to invest into the Popasna bulge?  One source said they are assembling 18 BTGs for the push, but that's a load of horsecrap.  Russia doesn't have even 8 to put into that fight, not to mention 10.  And I'm talking 8 very depleted and beat up BTGs, not even full strength ones.

The overall situation is not great, but Russia has a knack of taking something "not great" for Ukraine and transforming it into "disaster" for Russia.  I have faith that Ukraine can still turn this around, but they'd better get a move on it soon or it a counter attack won't be relevant.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

8 minutes ago, scarletto said:

I have spent just over a week in Medyka  and in the Ukraine, with an Aid Agency, been back a few weeks now. Besides the crossing being busy, but well organised id say, where we went to deliver aid/pick up refugees, the one soldier i spoke to, was adamant that they would beat the Russians. Not casual bravado, but a real chest beater.  The area we were in had been liberated by the Ukraine Army. If i was a scrap dealer id be heading south   Saw a lot of damage, shot down Russian plane, came under Russian shell fire (2-300 metres away) still felt like the countryside was still in 1941 with a homage in places to 2022.

Thanks for taking the time to post.  A deep bow and tip of my hat to you for doing what you did.  Soldiers are needed for fighting, but all the rest of it falls onto civilian shoulders.  Thank you for taking up some of that burden.

Steve