How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Kraft]

1 hour ago, purpheart23 said:

Yes, thank you.

1 hour ago, purpheart23 said:

Yeah that's all it was. Not just the 40B, any bill really. I digress though. You'll do you in this forum. Thanks for the engagement.

1 hour ago, purpheart23 said:

Thank you for chiming in.

52 minutes ago, purpheart23 said:

Thanks for chiming in.

48 minutes ago, purpheart23 said:

 

You're not done, you don't get to try to character assassinate me because you disagree with me and just walk away, that's what's known as a coward, you shouldn't let your effeminate emotions cloud your soft judgement.

47 minutes ago, purpheart23 said:

..l..

It is obvious theres no discussion to be had with purpheat23.

Now may I ask everyone not to spam another 3 pages with this, it is hard enough to keep up to date.

[Sequoia]

On 5/8/2022 at 9:44 AM, danfrodo said:

 

1.  Yet more utterly pointless discussions of "who was worse", Hitler or Stalin.  Please, just stop.  It's about as useful as arguing Superman vs Dr Strange (note, when I die and go to hell, these gawd awful superhero movies will be playing non stop, I am sure, which will be infinitely more punishing to me than burning in an eternal lake of fire)

 

 

Still much too good for you. You will be subjected to watching  Eurovision contests over and over again.

[BFCElvis]

@Phantom Captain @danfrodo @purpheart23 and anyone else that needs to hear it.....Enough. This will be the only warning.

[Harmon Rabb]

Some news from the Black Sea.

[akd]

1 hour ago, akd said:

Not sure if this is an elaborate fake…

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=5195940497095131&set=pcb.5195940560428458&type=3&theater

For comparison:

Some further analysis:

 

Edited May 13, 2022 by akd

[dan/california]

10 minutes ago, akd said:

For comparison:

Some further analysis:

 

Assuming it is a real image..... Maybe they made a last ditch attempt to swim/snorkel them, and figured if it didn't work it was better than donating the Ukrainians most of a tank company in working oder? Maybe??

Edited May 14, 2022 by dan/california
dropped a word

[chuckdyke]

7 hours ago, Centurian52 said:

But it seems that American politics has never been more united.

putin has sympathizers in high places in the US government seems to me. At best they are old term isolationists. Even when you oppose something at the end of the day people should support the majority in the government. At least for now the American people has the last say.  

[chuckdyke]

1 hour ago, akd said:

Not sure if this is an elaborate fake…

Name of the game on FB, YT and some more is to get likes. Not to publish what is good, true and beautiful. 

[akd]

28 minutes ago, chuckdyke said:

Name of the game on FB, YT and some more is to get likes. Not to publish what is good, true and beautiful. 

Already confirmed as likely real based on SAR imagery.  Try to keep up and not litter thread with empty comments.

Edited May 14, 2022 by akd

[chrisl]

So in post 12-13 of the @Danspiun thread, the third picture shows some interesting things if you look close.

To the left of the "C9K" box and just above the No 17 box, it looks like there's another fully submerged hull that's missing a turret.  It also looks like there may be a few more fully submerged IFVs as you go down and to the left from No17, based on the bright bumps that show up along the bank, probably including one to the left of the No17 box, too.

Also, in the first pic of his 8-11 post, there's something he calls "#A Building" that looks like it might be an old pier from a bridge that may have existed there in the past.  Given the presence of the power line roads, possibly some other fire roads, the shape of the banks, plus the structures on both sides, I'd guess that some time in the past there was a bridge there that was eventually abandoned and mostly removed except for some of the concrete piers.  The power lines might even have been initially run when the bridge was there to make it easier to install and service them.  Those might also show up more clearly on the SAR images.

Edit to add: And you have to wonder how they motivate more guys to drive their vehicles into that disaster area when there's not a sign of a single Ukrainian who did that to them?  This was entirely action at a distance from the friendly Ukrainian artillery who had that spot zeroed and clearly had eyes to know when to shoot.

(and wishing a little that I was in radar instead of optics...)

And more edit - if @Danspiun has the count right, and he seems close enough, that's pretty close to a complete set of vehicles for two full strength BTGs plus the bridging equipment (full bridging Btn?)

Edited May 14, 2022 by chrisl

[sburke]

Back to Ukraine and modern military transformation.  There is this guy Andrew Prokop who does a lot of SIP oriented blog stuff on the Avaya platform.  He has regular contributions discussing various facets of technology.

This is from this week and the subject can be seen in the link.

Artificial Intelligence and Video Analysis | Tao, Zen, and Tomorrow (wordpress.com)

It has interesting implications for ISR.  You run the video image through an AI enhanced program to look for exactly the type vehicles you want to see.  The UAV goes an autonomous route sending back imagery, when it spots what you are looking for it kicks out a time stamp, imagery and GPS coordinates.

[Vet 0369]

4 hours ago, purpheart23 said:

Whole lot of conjecture, thanks for chiming. Next!?

 

Please stop feeding the troll. He is craving attention, and if everyone just ignores him, he’ll eventually become so vitriolic that he’ll get a “vacation.”

[purpheart23]

1 minute ago, Vet 0369 said:

Please stop feeding the troll. He is craving attention, and if everyone just ignores him, he’ll eventually become so vitriolic that he’ll get a “vacation.”

I was told to stop it, please do the same. Thanks.

[The_Capt]

So something to think about here.  I have been wondering in the question of Crimea.  If the UA can effectively translate its methods to operational offensive, and the actions around Kharkiv suggest they can.  While at the same time the RA is nearing a form of collapse.  Then what happens when/if the UA decides to re-take the Crimea by force?  That is, from a Russian POV, Russian territory and Sevastopol, the port of the Black Sea Fleet, and major economic hub.  They, according to their doctrine, could justifiable employ WMDs in it defence.

It looks like the Russian may be signalling that they are thinking about doing the same with the current occupied territories via annexation:

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-annexation-occupied-ukraine-putin’s-unacceptable-“-ramp”

Now ISW is not perfect, they got it wrong on the May 9th mobilization but there is a lot here that matches what we have been seeing.

[LongLeftFlank]

On 5/5/2022 at 7:41 PM, LongLeftFlank said:

As expected, Ukraine withdrew from #Yampil to positions along the Seversky Doniets River, the main defense line of the northern #Donbas near the cities of #Sloviansk and #Kramatorsk.

I continue to think this is the Russian intended stop line for their "Potemkin Offensive" as well.

But I guess we'll know in another week.

Further (unconfirmed) RA crossing of the river, to break into the more open countryside between Siversk and Sloviansk. 

Interesting, if true.... 

At #Izyum, the front has died down, artillery duels are underway, fighting continues NW from #Lyman. A lot of Russian equipment has been seen withdrawing towards #Donbas in #Borova. The Russians seem to have abandoned this line of attack. 

The Sviatohirsk monastery and wooded hills have taken a terrible pounding, but the Russians don't appear to have the wherewithal to assault it. 

 

 

Edited May 14, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[MikeyD]

About assaulting Crimea. The water obstacle is so significant along the Dnieper (Dnipro) that I wonder if it would be more efficient for Ukraine to just roll down the east side of the Dnieper above Melitopol rather try to force a river crossing at Kherson. They certain aren't going to attempt that any time soon.

[dan/california]

21 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

So something to think about here.  I have been wondering in the question of Crimea.  If the UA can effectively translate its methods to operational offensive, and the actions around Kharkiv suggest they can.  While at the same time the RA is nearing a form of collapse.  Then what happens when/if the UA decides to re-take the Crimea by force?  That is, from a Russian POV, Russian territory and Sevastopol, the port of the Black Sea Fleet, and major economic hub.  They, according to their doctrine, could justifiable employ WMDs in it defence.

It looks like the Russian may be signalling that they are thinking about doing the same with the current occupied territories via annexation:

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-annexation-occupied-ukraine-putin’s-unacceptable-“-ramp”

Now ISW is not perfect, they got it wrong on the May 9th mobilization but there is a lot here that matches what we have been seeing.

I don't think the Russians will use WMD over Kherson, it just doesn't pass even the expanded version of the crazy test. They haven't had it for three months yet, whatever BS propaganda they come up with. Crimea might be different. The following is one hundred percent my opinion. Ukraine should let Crimea go in return for Nato and EU membership with Russian acquiescence. I don't say this because I think Putin deserves anything, other than some of his own polonium tea. I say it because Ukraine will be a far happier, far easier to run country without taking in that much hostile population. Crimea is just not as Ukrainian as the rest of Ukraine. The little green men trick wouldn't have worked if it was. In Mariupol the little green men got their buts kicked. And this was before close to a decade of strongly encouraged Russian immigration. They can't run the place with the willing consent of the populace, and their European support won't let them use less pleasant methods. Living well is the best revenge, just let it go.

[dan/california]

9 minutes ago, MikeyD said:

About assaulting Crimea. The water obstacle is so significant along the Dnieper (Dnipro) that I wonder if it would be more efficient for Ukraine to just roll down the east side of the Dnieper above Melitopol rather try to force a river crossing at Kherson. They certain aren't going to attempt that any time soon.

I keep thinking they should drop the bridges that supply Kherson, there is video of the Russians rigging them to blow, it isn't likely they can take them intact.

Edited May 14, 2022 by dan/california
added a word just for variety in my mistakes

[LongLeftFlank]

Polish scholar evaluates the overall operation and the debacle at Bilohorivka, from RU sources, with maps. Translated below.... 

 

How was it under #Bilohorivka? Two days ago, you could read an excerpt from the action thanks to @ kms_d4k

The Russians are shocked by the development of accidents and the losses. Today you can see the full version of the events from the Russian point of view

2. The entire operation lasted from May 2 to 10, but battles with the Russian survivors are still ongoing. A massive forcing operation that is not over yet

3. On May 2-3, Russian forces crossed Seversky Donets near Shipilovka [break 1].

After the crossing, the Russian army joined the battle with the garrison of the settlement. There were no troops ready to fight in Shipilovka, the garrison withdrew towards Privolye. 

4. Russian units dispersed in small groups around the area. The fighting started near Novodruzhsk, on the outskirts of Privolye and #Bilohorivka. Until the occupation of Shipilovka, a relatively small calculation of forces and resources was involved, which was less than half the BTG

5. On May 4, the bridgehead near Shipilovka [crossing 1] was lost. It happened most likely due to the underestimation of enemy forces in the surrounding settlements. A full-fledged battalion of the Armed Forces of Ukraine was stationed in Privolye, which was soon reinforced by Novodrużesk and #Lysychansk.

6. On the night of May 4-5 and in the afternoon of May 5, on the left bank of the Donets Siewierski from Serebrianka to Privolye, massive artillery preparations began [yellow arrows]. According to reports from local chats, the coast and the vicinity of Shipilovka "were littered with the corpses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine".

7. On May 5, Russian forces crossed Donets near Serebrianka [crossing 2].

It was not possible to get a bridgehead on the opposite bank: the combat-ready units from Siewiersk were transferred to Serebrianka.

8. Seversk itself included newly rotated units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine from #Sieverodonetsk, which were replaced by territorial defense units and national battalions. Artillery preparations at the positions of the #Ukraina Armed Forces continued for a few more days.

9. On 7-8 May, Russian troops crossed Donets Siewierski, near #Bilohorivka.

The Russian troops managed to occupy the dominant hills near the coast (the so-called Shipilovsky Mountains) and to capture the outskirts of Belogorovka along Pervomajska Street. 

10. Subsequently, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation met fierce resistance from Ukrainian units. The fortified area of the #Ukraine Armed Forces was in a residential area and near the Cretaceous quarry

11. On May 8, the Allied forces began a full-fledged pontoon crossing [crossing 3] across Donets Seversky near #Bilohorivka to introduce armored vehicles into the battle. Ukrainian artillery began to operate along the passages

12. Before the failure of the first pontoon, several pieces of equipment were transferred to the opposite shore. Russian forces continued their offensive on #Bilohorivka, where the Ukrainians transferred their reserves from Siewiersk.

At Sipiłowka, the Ukrainian troops were again thrown back to Privolye

13. On May 9, the pontoon crossing at #Bilohorivka [crossing 4] was restored. The transfer of up to 100 units of equipment began to the occupied bridgehead.

14. The approximate plan was to consolidate the success in #Bilohorivka and Shipilovka from Privolye, as well as prepare for the storming of  Seversk.

15. For an unknown reason, the equipment was not put into combat and was left near the headland on the other side of the Shipilov Hills. Presumably, on the night of May 10, the Armed Forces of #Ukraine conducted air reconnaissance and discovered a huge accumulation of equipment near the crossing.

16. Ukr. artillery launched a massive artillery attack on the outskirts of the Shipilov Hills. Most of the equipment moved to the eastern shore of the Dońca Siewierski (with the exception of the BTG equipment used in the battles of Shipilovka and #Bilohorivka) was disabled.

17. On May 11-12, Russian troops from #Kreminna and #Rubizhne were handed over to the assault on Privolye by the Russian forces remaining on the west bank of the river. Fighting in this area continues.

... 

4. A complicated situation under #Bilohorivka. Some of the Russian troops managed to survive (a lot of them had to be crossed) and are attacking the NE along #SiverskyiDonets. The Russians tried to evacuate them or send reinforcements, but the next crossing was destroyed by the Ukrainians.

5. Ros. They are gathering crossing equipment on the #SiverskyiDonets bend and will cross the river from the side of the captured #Rubizhne to connect with the unit from #Bilohorivka and go to the rear of the #Lysychansk defense. It is a very difficult place to defend due to possible attacks from 3 sides .

Edited May 14, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[FancyCat]

17 minutes ago, dan/california said:

I don't think the Russians will use WMD over Kherson, it just doesn't pass even the expanded version of the crazy test. They haven't had it for three months yet, whatever BS propaganda they come up with. Crimea might be different. The following is one hundred percent my opinion. Ukraine should let Crimea go in return for Nato and EU membership with Russian acquiescence. I don't say this because I think Putin deserves anything, other than some of his own polonium tea. I say it because Ukraine will be a far happier, far easier to run country without taking in that much hostile population. Crimea is just not as Ukrainian as the rest of Ukraine. The little green men trick wouldn't have worked if it was. In Mariupol the little green men got their buts kicked. And this was before close to a decade of strongly encouraged Russian immigration. They can't run the place with the willing consent of the populace, and their European support won't let them use less pleasant methods. Living well is the best revenge, just let it go.

 Crimea was taken in 2014, in less than 10 years (8 to be exact), they make out like a bandit by being able to claim a region as worth risking nuclear war and getting it legitimated? Hell no. Might as well just declare the same for Donbas. Hell, why not heartened them to hold Kherson while your at it? Same principle applies, just ethnic cleanse the hell outta it and claim ignorance 3 months down the line. 

[acrashb]

Everyone here is surprised by this war and is (mentally) preparing to fight the next as though it will look like this one - just as this one was supposed to look like the last one.  Yes the Russians are incompetent, but there's more going on and the revolution will continue.

In this war the CM group-mind is thinking hard about ISR.  Just found an article by Robert Zubrin from 2015 on space supremacy, which we see here to some degree in the ISR from commercial and 'spy' satellites.  Zubrin takes it a step further into the LEO, MEO and GEO domains with destruction and defence of space-borne ISR and GPS assets.  While I don't know Zubrin his credentials are interesting (e.g., he invented the awesome nuclear salt-water rocket).

And he includes this prescient line: "Eastern and Central Europe is now so weakly defended as to virtually invite invasion."  And here we are.

U.S. Space Supremacy Now Critical (spacenews.com)

[acrashb]

4 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

 Crimea was taken in 2014, in less than 10 years (8 to be exact), they make out like a bandit by being able to claim a region as worth risking nuclear war and getting it legitimated? Hell no. 

This issue here is that, if slice-and-hold works again, Russia will keep doing it.  Might as well give up now and give them everything - which isn't acceptable.  The big question if Putin does what ISW is suggesting: will the nuclear threat again be a bluff, or this time be real?

[Machor]

This thread starts off with the contrarian argument that the reason Soviet tanks blow up so catastrophically is not the ammo carousel under the turret, but ends with the underwhelming conclusion that the real culprit is the ammo stored unsafely outside the carousel, the detonation of which causes the detonation of the carousel. I highly recommend the thread for the detailed look into ammo stowage on Soviet tanks, and will post three graphics from the thread below:

First, I didn't know that the T-72/T-90 and T-64/T-80 had very different autoloaders:

Here's a picture of the commander's and gunner's seats atop the T-72B carousel:

And here's what that risk-taking gives you: T-72 and Abrams side-by-side:

[Machor]

Girkin had lately been silent, leading to rumors that he had been 'silenced'. He's come back with a bang: Addressing Putin, he publicly accuses Shoigu of 'in the very least' criminal negligence, suggesting that he would prefer a charge of 'treason' [in Russian]:

 

[Calamine Waffles]

21 minutes ago, Machor said:

This thread starts off with the contrarian argument that the reason Soviet tanks blow up so catastrophically is not the ammo carousel under the turret, but ends with the underwhelming conclusion that the real culprit is the ammo stored unsafely outside the carousel, the detonation of which causes the detonation of the carousel. I highly recommend the thread for the detailed look into ammo stowage on Soviet tanks, and will post three graphics from the thread below:

This has been known since the Chechen Wars. Once they removed spare ammunition, the survivability significantly improved.

T-64s and T-80s also have very few rounds stowed in the turret crew compartment.