How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Battlefront.com]

3 hours ago, billbindc said:

If you are coup curious, don't look towards the liberal end of the spectrum at this point.

Sadly, this was always the most likely situation to expect from Putin's removal.  However, the rather surprising degree of complacency of the population to how badly the war is going has made me think that there's no chance of a truly improved Russia even after whatever replaces Putin is itself replaced.

Steve

[hcrof]

39 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Not sure anything we are discussing here meets the "nationalistic" definition as no one nation is being represented, this is more a discussion on "what happens next" on a global scale.

It seems like every time I hear, or get into a discussion on China and the power contest with the current global order the usual suspects come out.  We get the ardent anti-Chinese paranoia ("they are in my plumbing") and what you pose here, "The Glass Dragon", the only thing missing is poking holes in property bubbles and demographics.

I do want to pull on one thread here that often comes out of the "Glass Dragon" sphere, I highlighted it in your post.  That has been the "get in line" strategy we have been basically relying upon for over 30 years.  The hope that China would see the error of its ways as we demonstrate the benefits of the current global order, while we try to contain its rapid expansion.  It is basically a version of the Cold War strategy, and it has not worked, nor is it likely to in my opinion.  And most of the 5EYEs Security and Defence strategies agree with me, so there is that. 

Finally, I am not sure what the definition of a "true superpower" is, but this gets thrown around a lot as well.  Are we talking the ability to leverage influence on a global scale?  Is it comparative to the US?  Is it marshalling collective will?  These terms get thrown around in what looks more like an attempt to make ourselves feel better than really looking at our environment (i.e. "well we are still a superpower and they aren't...oh look the Friends Reunion is on")

I think we are past "normalization hope" here, as this current war looks and feels like the opening of a new phase of this thing. 

I was at a defence conference way back in 2015 and it was largely boring old stuff one expects hear at these things.  There was a lot of focus on Russia because of the Crimea but it was the usual "we will win through teamwork and capitalism" type stuff.  Then this old guy was on a panel that made the whole room sit up and take notice.  He was in charge of covert action in Afghanistan back in the 80s, which was pretty impressive, but his points on Russia resonate to this day.  His position was that the future global competition, as it relates to Russia, was which sphere that nation was driven or pulled into.  We, the west, needed to pull Russia towards Europe, and that should be easy as gravity of history and culture was on our side.  If Russia were to be pulled into the Eastern sphere 1) shame on us for letting it happen and 2) that would be a very bad thing.

Here we are in 2022, this thing is not decided but it sure looks like it is sliding in the bad direction to me.  I frankly subscribe to the "who wins out of all this" as a metric, and right now China's position looks pretty solid. 

Fair point, to be honest my thoughts on China are not quite as glass dragon as my post implied but I am not sure they will escape the middle income trap and become a "true" us-style superpower. Certainly a major regional power and a local threat to the USA and its allies in the region but not the full spectrum of power across the globe. 

However, I am very worried about the increasingly nationalistic Chinese rhetoric we see now as well as the concentration of all power around one man. "Get in line" has failed and Russia is probably lost, but we need to avoid sleepwalking into another cold war (or worse a crazy and needless war like this one).

To your point about who wins, I agree China benefits by sitting out but I am not sure that is decisive. Their only major ally is tied to them closer but is weaker and even more resentful than before. The west has wasted a lot of money on a war but is more united at the end of it (hopefully). China learns a lot about modern war and US capabilities, but that also should give them pause to challenge the west in the near future.

Edited May 4, 2022 by hcrof

[Nicdain]

https://www.cityam.com/kremlin-on-high-alert-as-coup-rumours-grow-in-moscow-disgruntled-generals-join-fsb-looking-to-oust-putin-and-end-ukraine-war/

Coup rumors in Moscow according to City AM, a financial british newspaper. How reliable? 

[TheVulture]

Welcome to page 666 of the discussion, thus making this the thread of the beast.

[Huba]

2 minutes ago, hcrof said:

To your point about who wins, I agree China benefits by sitting out but I am not sure that is decisive. Their only major ally is tied to them closer but is weaker and even more resentful than before. The west has wasted a lot of money on a war but is more united at the end of it (hopefully). China learns a lot about modern war and US capabilities, but that also should give them pause to challenge the west in the near future.

This is crucial from from the global perspective really. In the aftermath of this war, (eastern) Europe should be in a position to counter Russia by itself, freeing US to shift it's attention wherever it is needed.

[sross112]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

This also sets up for further economic incursion into Europe as there is nothing illegal with Chinese owned oil and gas, coming out of Russian soil, being bought by Europe.  Our sanctions are against Russian corporations.  As this thing expands and intensifies, I am starting to see a Chinese long-game emerge as Russian and Western world drive whatever is left of Russia into the Eastern orbit.  I personally would have thought this impossible given culture and history but here we are.

Very interesting insight. I hadn't thought of China being an economic proxy for Russia, but it does make a lot of sense for them. They could come out of this profiting very nicely. Everyone has talked about Russia being a gas station for China but this makes more sense. Logistically it doesn't work for China to be fueled by Russian gas and oil as there aren't the pipelines and such in place for shipping and building thousands of miles of that is very expensive and takes a lot of time. But the infrastructure is already there for Europe and I'm sure the market will be there for some time. Germany can just buy it from China instead of Russia and circumvent the sanctions. No idea what the profit margins for Russia were but China can gobble those up and leave just enough for Russia to make a profit but nothing close to what they are getting now.

No idea on the actual numbers but if Russia was selling gas to Germany for $3 a gallon and their cost for extraction and shipping was $1 a gallon China can step in and buy it in the ground for $1 and pay $.50 for shipping. China pockets 75% of the profit. Russia still makes money from it's gas and oil but nowhere near what it did before. Big winner is China, big loser is Russia either way. Same thing could be done with the other mineral wealth that Russia has. 

The other possibility would be Chinese firms buying out the Russian firms like Gazprom, but I would think they would be pretty hesitant after watching the nationalization of foreign companies the last couple months.

[akd]

3 minutes ago, TheVulture said:

Welcome to page 666 of the discussion, thus making this the thread of the beast.

This should help:

 

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, billbindc said:

https://twitter.com/JominiW/status/1521700041601302529/photo/1

Makes me want to find my copy of Dupy's book!  The QJM still doesn't seem to be a great analytical tool to me, but the historical data is excellent for getting a sense of where things might be headed.

Steve

[Der Zeitgeist]

4 minutes ago, akd said:

This should help:

Have any of these supposedly intercepted phonecalls ever been confirmed independently? A lot of them are so completely over the top (like the one where a Russian Soldier's girlfriend gave him permission to rape Ukrainian women) that I have my doubts about how many of these are simply Ukrainian psyops.

[Huba]

Meanwhile:

 

[akd]

13 minutes ago, Der Zeitgeist said:

Have any of these supposedly intercepted phonecalls ever been confirmed independently? A lot of them are so completely over the top (like the one where a Russian Soldier's girlfriend gave him permission to rape Ukrainian women) that I have my doubts about how many of these are simply Ukrainian psyops.

That one specifically was verified by journalists.  Also:

I think it is extremely difficult to fake phone conversations between friends and family, but that is lost just reading transcripts (which often omit the confusing bits of natural conversation for clarity).

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

Here we are in 2022, this thing is not decided but it sure looks like it is sliding in the bad direction to me.  I frankly subscribe to the "who wins out of all this" as a metric, and right now China's position looks pretty solid. 

I agree that China is watching this war between the second biggest autocratic bad boy and the West with great interest.  However, for now I'm looking at this as a glass half full thing.

Russia thought it was strong enough to take on the West.  Militarily, economically, and politically.  Russia was wrong on all three counts, as far as we can tell (i.e. the war isn't over yet).  Every single important thing Russia thought would happen has not.  Every single important thing that Russia though wouldn't happen has. 

Many of these same assumptions probably have analogs within China's long standing calculus for war with the West.  In particular that quantity can easily win over quality (military), economic impact to self can be minimized (economic), and influence purchased over many decades can be relied upon (political).  They also likely see that these failures compelled Russia to bang on the nuke drum pretty early in the war and yet the West isn't flinching.

China is looking at all of Russia's abject failures and has one of two conclusions it can draw from it:

1. Russia didn't do overt Evil well enough, so the solution is to do overt Evil better
2. Overt Evil isn't likely going to prevail and keep the homefront secure, so the solution is to maintain covert Evil and be happy with an intact homefront

Never underestimate an autocratic state's capability for making the wrong choice, however so far China has shown itself to be vastly more pragmatic and capable than Russia.

The West's approach to China has not worked out the way it wanted in regards to having China convert itself to a more-or-less Western style of governance.  However, I do think it's worked in the sense that China sees benefit in keeping the current relationship with the West more-or-less intact.  Unlike Russia, China has a lot to lose by damaging the economic relationship with the West.  China needs Western markets to exploit in order to get its revenue, not just petro dependency like with Russia. 

I'm not saying I'm optimistic, exactly, but I do think there's a very good possibility that China is looking at all of this and thinking "maybe we should just keep doing what we're doing for another 10-15 years and reassess at that point".

Steve

[sburke]

6 minutes ago, akd said:

That one specifically was verified by journalists.  Also:

I think it is extremely difficult to fake phone conversations between friends and family, but that is lost just reading transcripts (which often omit the confusing bits of natural conversation for clarity).

and after the stuff coming out from Bucha, none of this seems far-fetched.  Why is it so hard to believe they'd talk like this after what they actually did?

[Vanir Ausf B]

 

[Battlefront.com]

7 minutes ago, akd said:

I think it is extremely difficult to fake phone conversations between friends and family, but that is lost just reading transcripts (which often omit the confusing bits of natural conversation for clarity).

Occam's Razor test also supports that the majority, including the jaw dropping ones, are likely true.  First, we know for sure from many sources that Russians in Ukraine are using unsecured means of communicating with each other, not to mention back home.  This has been demonstrated since 2014.  Also demonstrated since 2014 is Ukraine's ability to document these conversations over and over and over again.  Ukraine has also routinely put intercepted communications out for public scrutiny and they've been repeatedly shown to be truthful.

So there's that.

Add to this all that we know about Russian control of media, politics, organizations, and individual liberties.  In particular the 24/7 propaganda campaign to groom average Russians to support state thinking.  We can clearly see what their messaging is by looking at their propaganda.  In short, Ukraine is Russian territory that is temporarily populated by a subhuman race that is backed by the West in its quest to destroy everything Russian.

Then there's one more thing...

We've seen the brutality of Russians towards Ukrainian civilians.  I'm not even going to bother elaborating on that.

So, is it unexpected that a bunch of brutal, mind controlled people say things over known tapped lines that are then put out for the public to evaluate?  Or is more likely that none of these things are producing phone calls like Ukraine claims and that they are instead being faked?

Pretty obvious answer to me.

Steve

[Huba]

A lengthy thread by Kamil Galeev arguing against a possibility of mass mobilization and declaration of war by Russia. Quite convincing if you ask me:

 

[sburke]

 

"They laughed at us: Do you say that you are suicide bombers?" Conversation of the military from South Ossetia and the head of the republic Anatoly Bibilov (zona.media)

 

[The_Capt]

25 minutes ago, hcrof said:

Fair point, to be honest my thoughts on China are not quite as glass dragon as my post implied but I am not sure they will escape the middle income trap and become a "true" us-style superpower. Certainly a major regional power and a local threat to the USA and its allies in the region but not the full spectrum of power across the globe. 

However, I am very worried about the increasingly nationalistic Chinese rhetoric we see now as well as the concentration of all power around one man. "Get in line" has failed and Russia is probably lost, but we need to avoid sleepwalking into another cold war (or worse a crazy and needless war like this one).

To your point about who wins, I agree China benefits by sitting out but I am not sure that is decisive. Their only major ally is tied to them closer but is weaker and even more resentful than before. The west has wasted a lot of money on a war but is more united at the end of it (hopefully). China learns a lot about modern war and US capabilities, but that also should give them pause to challenge the west in the near future.

Middle income traps...western world, to your own house look.  I am not sure where this leaves the west.  We have definitely united but the divisions are still there, just watch the news. 

I am almost convinced we are already in a version of a Cold War, but nothing like the last one.  Maybe more like pre-WWI competition to be honest.  The lines are definitely drawn and I do not think we come out of this "normal".

I think China is paying very close attention to this war, but are going to take away different conclusions other than "fear us".  My bet is that they will note how "not to" take on the west but also "how to better".  I too, do not believe China is an unstoppable power that is simply going to roll us over; however, their trajectory is as impressive as the global rise of the US during the end of the 19th century.  

I disagree on Chinese global power.  Not militarily but economically they are stretching out very far, the evidence on this is significant.  Further, I am not at all convinced that China was surprised by this, we have no idea what their intelligence apparatus really looks like or what they knew or did not.  Considering the US was pushing out so much, I doubt they did not have internal intel validation as well. 

So what? Well to be honest the one area that concerns me the most with respect to China's rise and this emerging conflict/competition - "confletition?", is that if all war is: vision/certainty, communication, negotiation, and sacrifice, who has the sacrifice advantage?  Based on the state of the west right now, I am coming to the uncomfortable conclusion that it is not us.  We talk about the middle-class trap in China, our western societies are so entitled right now that we are seeing mass protests on public health mandates, all the while if anyone gets sick at these things they had better have free healthcare to take care of them.  The west is at least 2 generations from having to actually fight for itself on the scope and scale we are seeing in Ukraine, maybe 3 and we have become highly entitled.  We will not willingly sacrifice much, even in the face of a global pandemic, let alone a greyish global power competition.  China, I strongly suspect, is playing on a different field entirely when it comes to what they are willing to sacrifice to continue to expand, and that is something to be very concerned about.

   

[danfrodo]

1 hour ago, Nicdain said:

https://www.cityam.com/kremlin-on-high-alert-as-coup-rumours-grow-in-moscow-disgruntled-generals-join-fsb-looking-to-oust-putin-and-end-ukraine-war/

Coup rumors in Moscow according to City AM, a financial british newspaper. How reliable? 

I think it's pretty safe by this point to assume that just about everyone in FSB and military wants Putin dead ASAP.  The trick is getting to him (and then getting out).  Classic autocratic bureaucracy where no one trusts anyone else so it's hard to form cabals.  General A is scared Putin will kill him at some point, but when General B says "let's kill Putler" General A turns General B in, thinking Putin will then trust him more take him off the death list. 

I agree most likely outcome is some kind of right wing fascist oligarchy, followed by another dictatorship once one of the oligarchs manages to get a monopoly on power.  but they still might decide to focus inward instead of outward, which would mean ongoing hell for russians but at least they'd leave the world alone.

[akd]

They already got one:

 

Edited May 4, 2022 by akd

[Suleyman]

Although I know Russians as well as other major powers commit atrocious war crimes on innocent people during war, it does seem off that they would almost brag about it to their family. I don't know if those phone calls are real, but I know there are war criminals on the Russian side that commit evil acts. If those phone calls are real, it means there's psychos enlisted within their ranks. Which is not good for anyone, like how crazy do you have to be to brag about it to your family? Disgusting. 

I read the Russians use 2S7s for counter battery roles. I wonder if the M777s will get into duels with those systems, since the Ukrainians are good at firing and changing positions. It's funny how the Russians don't even want to attempt complete air superiority, they're content with strong AD bubbles, and low sortie rates. Good for the Ukrainians though. 

[akd]

Wrapped up in a bunch of propaganda, Russia confirms loss of Staryi Saltiv:

 

[FancyCat]

37 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

In short, Ukraine is Russian territory that is temporarily populated by a subhuman race that is backed by the West in its quest to destroy everything Russian.

Not exactly, Ukrainians are Russians who have fallen/been infected for/by the West, turned their back on Russia, so they are subhuman, but due to being traitors accepting the devil's bargain.

If you want to rejoin Russia, you can! If not the filtration camps will determine whether rehabilitation is possible (if not, the mass graves are your ending)  and gulags will turn you back into a Russian via torture over a prolonged period of time.

So that the phone call is real matches pretty well with their dehumanizing rhetoric. One thing to utterly emphasize this is not rogue elements, this is state policy. It is state policy to deploy their dehumanizing rhetoric, it is state policy for their filtration camps and mass graves, and it is state policy to inflict terror on the civilian population to force compliance.

[Suleyman]

9 minutes ago, akd said:

They already got one:

 

That's their best tank too. I don't see an open LOS to them for Javelins, must have been TB-2 or arty? 

[BeondTheGrave]

56 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I agree that China is watching this war between the second biggest autocratic bad boy and the West with great interest.  However, for now I'm looking at this as a glass half full thing.

Russia thought it was strong enough to take on the West.  Militarily, economically, and politically.  Russia was wrong on all three counts, as far as we can tell (i.e. the war isn't over yet).  Every single important thing Russia thought would happen has not.  Every single important thing that Russia though wouldn't happen has. 

Many of these same assumptions probably have analogs within China's long standing calculus for war with the West.  In particular that quantity can easily win over quality (military), economic impact to self can be minimized (economic), and influence purchased over many decades can be relied upon (political).  They also likely see that these failures compelled Russia to bang on the nuke drum pretty early in the war and yet the West isn't flinching.

China is looking at all of Russia's abject failures and has one of two conclusions it can draw from it:

1. Russia didn't do overt Evil well enough, so the solution is to do overt Evil better
2. Overt Evil isn't likely going to prevail and keep the homefront secure, so the solution is to maintain covert Evil and be happy with an intact homefront

Never underestimate an autocratic state's capability for making the wrong choice, however so far China has shown itself to be vastly more pragmatic and capable than Russia.

The West's approach to China has not worked out the way it wanted in regards to having China convert itself to a more-or-less Western style of governance.  However, I do think it's worked in the sense that China sees benefit in keeping the current relationship with the West more-or-less intact.  Unlike Russia, China has a lot to lose by damaging the economic relationship with the West.  China needs Western markets to exploit in order to get its revenue, not just petro dependency like with Russia. 

I'm not saying I'm optimistic, exactly, but I do think there's a very good possibility that China is looking at all of this and thinking "maybe we should just keep doing what we're doing for another 10-15 years and reassess at that point".

Steve

The one thing I would add to this is that Russia was clearly betting that the West would not react, or if it did would do it so slowly as to not obstruct the invasion. They clearly bet right re: Germany, but had assumed that would be the dominant European narrative. Not a bad bet given recent history, Germany's leading role in the EU, and generally Europe's dependence on Russia economically. In many ways the West and the US are more fragmented and scattered than they ever have been. Atlantic-skepticism on both sides of the pond is at all-time highs. And without the west's blank check, who knows how things would have gone. But Russia also bet against history. No country in the world has done a better job of uniting Europe and the United States than Russia, and it was obvious the moment word of the invasion leaked that Europe would be in not out. Honestly I had thought at the time the biggest win for Putin possible would have been to extend his wargame an extra two weeks, threaten war, then pull back and demobilize. "look" he could have crowed "the west is pining for us to attack them, fabricating justifications for a war we never planned. The west hates us for doing exactly what they do." Instead he went all in. Idiot. 

Anyways regarding the fires: