hcrof

I think anyone asking Ukraine to rely on drones for victory has missed that the gap in drone use efficiency has closed considerably . They are still better but the Russians have got competent, and have greater numbers. Even if they crack drone autonomy I hope they are able to take advantage of it quick because the Russians might not be far behind. I believe the Ukrainian path to victory is now 100% on the russian home front, not victory on the battlefield. Unfortunately it won't be quick...

You might be right tbh, when drones become mature enough. But I would hedge if I were purchasing right now, maybe that drone counterswarm arrives? Or better counter-ai camouflage? But then hedging would also mean not purchasing that fancy new mortar! I'm glad I don't have to make those decisions...

I agree, but snipers don't make machine guns obsolete! Sometimes you have an "oh crap" moment where you need a lot of fire very quickly, and mortars do that very well. I think there is space for both, although in the modern battlefield the mortar may need to be attached to a vehicle of some kind so it can displace quickly. It doesn't all have to be an 8x8 either (although those are great), there are lighter versions like scorpion. My vote though, would be a ugv version, to make it even smaller and easier to hide. Like a pair of universal carrier sized vehicles: one with a mortar on the back and the other with the crew and extra ammo.

The big advantage of a mortar is the rate of fire, so a small number of mortars can potentially do a lot of damage. But the rest of your points are valid. There are some interesting videos of the British army mortar teams being very creative with camouflage. For example hiding it in a dumpster or inside a wrecked building, so when the drones come hunting they can't find it. Whether that works in practice remains to be seen.

The way I see it is that if you bombard and area with artillery then everything in an ellipse of hundreds of meters is at risk of dying. I don't see much difference in designating a killbox for drones and letting them go for it. In fact a killbox is better since it can be defined more precisely and the stroke can be closer to your own troops.

Since this discussion doesn't seem to be stopping I want to say that both sides need to cut each other some slack. What consenting adults do with each other is none of my business and if my friends or family have a same-sex relationship it does not harm me in any way. On the other hand some people are uncomfortable with that and they are not going to change their mind by your disapproval. They just need time and space to realise the whole country isn't going to burn down because some man decides to wear a dress or something.

Just found this thread. The Ukrainian government has been able to put off difficult decisions for too long because of the stalemate at the front. It's not like the russian narrative of the male population has been emptied from the country, it's more like trench warfare is dangerous and unglamorous so no-one wants to do it. But there isn't an existential sense of crisis in the country so the can is kicked down the road. If the Russians actually made meaningful gains I wouldn't be surprised if there was a rush to the recruitment offices.

Quality content as always from Anders Puck Nielsen

Russia is spending over 6% of it's GDP on the military right now, which is a very heavy burden. A handful of NATO countries spent a comparable amount of money in Afghanistan every year for 20 years without much effort. I have not got the numbers to hand but NATO is not breaking a sweat right now financially, so even if big players like the US pulled out (doubtful, even with trump in charge IMO) they still have the resources to keep going. In a few years industry will catch up to the financing and then NATO can supply Ukraine indefinitely.

Depends on if you isolate the war away from the west's support of Ukraine. Lots of Russia supporters don't/can't grasp that even if Ukraine can't win outright, it won't lose as long a even a few western countries keep the flow of supplies going. I don't think Russia has a plan for that.

Yeah, he obviously doesn't know the history of Afghanistan or Czechoslovakia/Hungary or he would be making that comparison not Iraq 2003. He kinda says that if war was a computer game you could save-scum your way to a flawless victory against impossible odds. But he doesn't say how. War is about mistakes - you can't run a "what if" scenario based on your side running a flawless campaign with perfect knowledge of both thr enemy and yourself

https://meduza.io/en/feature/2024/04/04/pro-kremlin-telegram-channels-share-propaganda-video-featuring-u-s-city-councilor-who-joined-russian-army-after-fleeing-child-pornography-charges No suprise that he is on the run from US law enforcement...

Agreed. The wider the radius Ukraine can strike, the area Russia needs to cover with air defence goes up by that number squared. If nothing else it is an expensive distraction having to defend such an enormous area. It is a puzzle to me why Ukraine chooses not to increase the number of strikes. Maybe they think that money is better spent elsewhere, maybe they don't want to mobilise russian society, or maybe the Americans told them not to do it. I am sure we will find out in time...

I'm not sure actually, I don't think production of those things requires much sophisticated equipment so I imagine production could begin again fairly soon (6 weeks?) unfortunately. But as a cheap demonstration it is still a valuable strike.

I am going to try one more time here... Your posts come off sounding extremely confused. You make multiple statements without any logical connection between them and you seem to know they are controversial but you do not back them up with evidence. You keep citing Plato's cave but in a way that sounds like you are copying what someone else said without understanding it. Please offer simple and direct answers to people's questions. Imagine you are a professional writing a report for a client. You are not going to persuade anyone with long, poorly focused posts with no evidence. Because my finger is hovering over the ignore button and you only have yourself to blame.