How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[mosuri]

29 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

First thing I thought of when I saw quotes of Lavrov was "gee, I wonder if the Israelis will think a bit harder about their relationship with Putin".

Steve

Kind of wish they gave more air time to Latrinov in the western media -- giving him more rope to hang himself with that is ...

[Vanir Ausf B]

42 minutes ago, akd said:

Ukrainian tank attacking, then taking a hit while withdrawing:

 

They screwed up by not keeping the turret rotated towards the enemy while in LOS.

[danfrodo]

Quick fanboy message to all the folks here that are enjoying this thread but haven't yet tried out Combat Mission Black Sea.  You will be absolutely shocked at how accurately the simulation matches what we see in the field from videos.  So pick up a copy and get to it! 

Last night I used precision artillery to knock out troublesome BTRs, while one of my javelin teams was spotted just before firing by a BTR and got chewed up by 30mm fire -- that is a deadly gun.  Ambush is easy w modern weapons, advancing is HARD!

[TheVulture]

4 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

So some advances toward Slovyansk by RU.  But as pointed out above, the terrain gets increasingly bad beyond Lyman, so would be even harder to keep going there. 

Meanwhile, there's report of big UKR advances NE of Kharkiv.  Any of you have any thoughts on what could be achieved NE/E of kharkiv to unhinge RU forces from Izyum and the Lyman fronts?  I am of course hoping for full Romanian collapse (ooops, donetz milita, not romanian collapse -- weird I keep making that mistake......)

NE of Kharkiv is sort of isolated from the rest of the Russian forces in that area. The Siversky Donets river is about 10-15km east of Kharkiv, and there's one major bridge and a few smaller ones there under Russian control inside the Ukrainian border. The big one is at Staryi Saltiv, which is where it was being reported that the Russians took heavy casualties yesterday (or was it the day before). I don't know of any corroboration of that report though, so it might just be RUMINT.

In the north of the region between Karkhiv and the Siversky Donest, one of the two main supply routes from Russia to Izyum runs within 2km of the river for a distance. I.e. a considerably stretch of it is within artillery range from the other side of the river, which could allow Ukraine to largely stop the Russians using one of the two supply lines for their main force concentration.

[Harmon Rabb]

https://thehill.com/policy/international/3473329-russia-ending-work-on-international-space-station-in-response-to-sanctions/

 

Russia says it is ending working on the International Space Station.

 

[danfrodo]

So TheVulture, you are thinking that the river obstacle will keep UKR from moving further east?   Bummer.  The site where I got this map says the bridge at Staryy Saltov is blown. 

 

[Der Zeitgeist]

11 minutes ago, Harmon Rabb said:

https://thehill.com/policy/international/3473329-russia-ending-work-on-international-space-station-in-response-to-sanctions/

Russia says it is ending working on the International Space Station.

 

Not so fast:

 

[danfrodo]

12 minutes ago, Harmon Rabb said:

https://thehill.com/policy/international/3473329-russia-ending-work-on-international-space-station-in-response-to-sanctions/

 

Russia says it is ending working on the International Space Station.

 

well, Russia, being a serial mass murderer is why you can't have nice friends.  Enjoy your isolation and poverty.

[Los]

 In case this isn't posted yet.

 

https://nypost.com/2022/05/02/vladimir-putin-to-undergo-cancer-surgery-transfer-power/

[Battlefront.com]

It's been awhile since I've talked about the possibility of strategic collapse of Russian forces.  I've been thinking about this a lot since the Easter Offensive started and so figured I'd share my thoughts.

Somewhere around the 2 week mark I said that, from my perspective, all the conditions had been met for the possibility of a sudden and systemic collapse.  Terrible morale, large amount of casualties, lack of faith in leadership, lack of faith (presumably) in their equipment, hunger, cold, and a total FUBAR all around them while at the same time making no noticeable gains against a determined enemy.  That sort of stuff.

A possibility, however, doesn't equate to certainty.  And so far a systemic collapse has not happened.

In my view the most important reason why the collapse didn't happen a month ago is because Russia withdrew the sizeable forces from the northern part of the front (Kyiv to Kharkiv).  This achieved four very important counters to a pending systemic collapse:

• the most over extended, casualty riddled, poorly supplied (in some cases), and demoralized forces were withdrawn before they mutinied.  I am 100% convinced that had Russia not withdrawn them within a week of when they did those forces would have collapsed and likely caused a domino effect.  I am equally convinced that Russian leadership felt the same way.
• although these forces were in rough shape at the time of withdrawal, they hadn't all gone into the combat ineffective category.  Even though they were not given adequate time to rest and refit, their situation improved relative to how it was before.
• the survivors of the first month of combat are probably, on average, better than the forces that went into Ukraine.  Darwin likely sorted out the ones least capable or interested in fighting.  Better forces are less likely to revolt than poorer ones.
• taking spent forces and putting them together with other spent forces gives each the sense of relative improvement.  Couple this with a "plan" to stick it to the Ukrainians where it hurts the most and you give these guys hope that things will work out.

The combination of all these elements bought Russia some time.  However, that's all it did.

In this time Russia has suffered significant casualties for very little gain.  It's obviously run out of trained manpower and is now resorting to untrained conscripts hastily rounded up from occupied lands.  This is going to make the situation worse, not better.

While I think all the conditions for a systemic collapse still exist, and have in some ways returned to a late March state of affairs, it seems to me that the most significant element needed to push Russia over the edge is large loss of territory in a fairly short period of time.  I'm not seeing the potential for that this month, though I think Ukraine will make further gains in the Kharkiv area at least.

Steve

[billbindc]

4 minutes ago, Los said:

 In case this isn't posted yet.

 

https://nypost.com/2022/05/02/vladimir-putin-to-undergo-cancer-surgery-transfer-power/

Be wary of the story and the source but in case it's true, Nikolai Patrushev is exactly who you don't want in power in Moscow. In character and paranoia, he's another Andropov.

[Battlefront.com]

6 minutes ago, Los said:

 In case this isn't posted yet.

 

https://nypost.com/2022/05/02/vladimir-putin-to-undergo-cancer-surgery-transfer-power/

Thanks for that, Los.  It's been in the rumor mill for some time and we've recently discussed it.  NY Post is not unreliable as as news sources go (see how I phrased that?), but I think we won't know for sure until an Intel service comes out and confirms it.

Steve

[Haiduk]

56 minutes ago, TheVulture said:

I don't know of any corroboration of that report though, so it might just be RUMINT.

Looks like this is true, but not confirmed officially yet. Our Genral Staff made a warning to influence bloggers don't tell about libarated settlements until this will be done officially. 

About Stary Saltiv, yesterday evening there was information about "enemy sufferd losses after strike at Staryi Saltiv". As if locals write actually in Staryi Saltiv was deployed small unit of LPR conscripts. UKR hit building, where they lived, so about dozen of them or more were KIA/WIA, rest just ran away and UKR forces took the settlement without a fight, but this is rumors. Maybe our forces conduct some actions (and maybe on eastern bank of Siverskyi Donets so far, who knows), which not finished yet, so official corraboration can be during next day or two. 

Edited May 2, 2022 by Haiduk

[danfrodo]

Just saw that US says first batch of 200 UKR finished training on M777 artillery.  I suppose another thing that could speed collapse is when RU's one big advantage, artillery, starts getting destroyed or has to flee the scene.  And then all those NATO guns open up on you.  I'd definitely want to flee from that. 
 

 

[Battlefront.com]

Ukraine is saying that full mobilization is coming on May 9:

 

[MikeyD]

I'll be interested to see what happens May 9 a week from now. My guess, parade footage intercut with shots of Putin standing there in 2021.

[Battlefront.com]

Did someone say Orlan-10?  Well, one less of them:

 

[Bearstronaut]

1 hour ago, danfrodo said:

Quick fanboy message to all the folks here that are enjoying this thread but haven't yet tried out Combat Mission Black Sea.  You will be absolutely shocked at how accurately the simulation matches what we see in the field from videos.  So pick up a copy and get to it! 

Last night I used precision artillery to knock out troublesome BTRs, while one of my javelin teams was spotted just before firing by a BTR and got chewed up by 30mm fire -- that is a deadly gun.  Ambush is easy w modern weapons, advancing is HARD!

Yeah, I’m playing a PBEM right now on a huge map trying to cut a highway as the Russians. My opponent is playing as Ukraine and I’m having a hard time advancing even against Spigots.

[Haiduk]

2 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Did someone say Orlan-10?  Well, one less of them:

 

Clouds our allies ) Operators of Orlans forced to go down and here we can reach them with MANPADS, Strela-10 and Osa 

[akd]

Looks more like this bridge was attacked than demoed:

 

[Haiduk]

@sburke @Kinophile @akd

Mayor Andrey Kunakov, chief of the staff, 153rd separate SOF detachment of 346th separate SOF brigade, Special Operations Command. Killed 19th of March in Mariupol

This is interesting unit. This is not usual "Spetstaz" brigade, this is exactly SOF. 

Since 2013 in Russia were established own Special Operations Command (first attempt was in 2009), which has under own comamnd two SOF centers "Senezh" and "Kubinka-2". 346th brigade was established in 2012 as a part of "Kubinka-2" center (Moscow oblast), but later was moved to Caucasian Kabardino-Balkaria Republic before Sochi-2014 Olympic Games.  

They participated in occupation of Crimea, snipers of this brigade were spotted on Donbas in 2016

 

[Vacillator]

41 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

M777 artillery

BBC News showing M777s being loaded on planes...  So probably happened a day or two ago .

[Battlefront.com]

This is a long but interesting read.  It's a diatribe from Girkin posted today May 2.  This gives a clear vision of how the ultra-nationalists view Ukraine and how Girkin (and likely those similar to him) view the war.  But here's the new twist on Girkin's rants.  While he has been critical of the ruling elite of Russia and the Army leadership, he's so far been careful to not tie them to Putin.  This time is different.  He makes it very clear he holds Putin ultimately responsible for what is going on.  That's something to note.

Here's the short version:

1.  Russia is in a state of arrested development between being a great nation and being a failed state.  Last 30 years has been treading water somewhere in the middle.

2.  Ukrainians are occupying Russian land and they need to be expelled (he jokes to Canada), though he prefers them to be hanged instead.

3.  The Russian government is sending the wrong message to its citizens and the world by saying this is about "denazification".  He says the government should be honest that this war is taking back the land that should be Russia's already.  All of it or most of it, not just the bits to the east. 

4.  With the right messaging (i.e. retaking Russian land, not liberating it for Ukrainians) the Russian government can rally the people to wage a holy war against the Western backed Nazi puppets.

5.  The only two choices for Russia now is total war or total surrender.  Nothing else.

In many respects Girkin is spot on and quite insightful.  Yes, he's a murderous fanatic, but even he is able to assess the Kremlin's ineptitude and corruption as accurately as anybody.  It's just that Girkin fits into the camp of "we're losing the war because we're being too nice".

Steve

 

[Taranis]

Question on Le Monde :
"Are there female soldiers in the russian army?
 

Yes. In 2020, the Center for Strategic & International Studies (CSIS) published an article on the subject, titled Women in the Russian Military. The article explains that “Women were authorized to enlist from November 1992 by presidential decree. In May 2020, Defense Minister Shoygu said that there are about 41,000 enlisted in the Russian Armed Forces, which is about 4.26% of the total active duty forces, according to official figures. They “are not allowed to occupy front line combat roles”. They are excluded from aircraft, submarines and armored vehicles."

[Battlefront.com]

7 minutes ago, Vacillator said:

BBC News showing M777s being loaded on planes...  So probably happened a day or two ago .

Some are apparently already in Ukraine.  70 out of 90 are already in Ukraine and over 200 Ukrainians have completed an intensive 2 week training course.  This is according to US DoD:

Steve