mosuri

Court politics -- everyone is corrupt, but it's only made an issue for those that are to be removed. Someone wants to be rid of him, and he doesn't have a protector.

Whoa. A very bold claim that Ukraine struct a russian ship in Kaliningrad: https://www.kyivpost.com/post/30778 That would be something if true.

The twitter post above also claims "several strategic aviation pilots among the dead" which is an excellent addition. I do not know which resource is more under pressure, the bears or their pilots, but whittling down both of those hard to replace assets is great news. Waiting for Peskov to start claiming that attacks on russian strategic aviation are a nuclear strike red line in 3, 2, 1...

Well, I can't tell whether those are part of infrastructure that's wholly internal to russia, or whether they are part of international pipelines, but in this strange war russian natural gas still flows through pipelines over Ukraine to countries like Hungary and Austria, even today. Agreement continues until end of this year, at least: https://carnegieendowment.org/politika/91649 It probably isn't in the best interests of Ukraine to rock that particular boat and cause worsening relations with EU members, even if they are led by characters like the toad orban (although to be fair, toads have a spine, and a heart) or Slovakia's fu.., I mean, fico.

I admit I couldn't believe russians would be so cavalier as to park numerous strategically important aircraft on an airstrip so close to front and thought it must be just a collection of scrap aluminum. Factory would be harder to relocate, but surely anything flyable that was worth protecting would have already flown out. But happy to be wrong about that.

Footage claimed to be from onboard tsezar kunikov that was submarine-converted last month:

These are some funny (as in strange) vids. Well, it's true that people act in funny ways when in an unexpected situations, if they act at all, but still -- they clearly see the drone close by, they see and hear traces flying relatively close, and think nothing of it. And it seems more sloth and stupidity than sang froid. No seeking of cover until sparks really start flying, no alarming anyone on the boat they are on that there are explosives swimming in the waters around them, not to even mention doing something active like finding a spotlight to illuminate the drone with... well, good for Ukraine. As is the absolutely pathetic defense the target put up.

It's torpedo boats and quick firing guns all over again... more dakka seems like the solution. Still, the Tarantul that was sunk before (Ivanovets) did have turreted 30mm gatling guns for close in defence and it didn't help -- that system is maybe suited for aerial targets only in automatic mode but per Wikipedia it has manual operation mode as well, but again, didn't help. Either the targeting system doesn't work with sea targets, guns don't depress enough, gunners were drunk, or somefink. Heck, maybe someone sold the ammo in port for vodka money.

Something brewing in Ingushetia?

I'm leaning towards these being rotting hulks, or maybe something that could be restored, but not operational at the moment. More of the same can be found by panning the current google map image a bit SE ... Quick googling shows that there's a Beriyev facility that's been hosting various airframes. E.g. this stock photo from 2007 https://www.alamy.com/stock-photo-tu-95-strategic-bombers-at-the-taganrog-based-beriyev-scientific-and-22922065.html

There's also two what looks like Tu-95 to my untrained eye, plus two other four-engine planes (Il-76?) Taganrog is what, barely 100 miles from the front? This seems sus to me. Would love it to be yet another "not even russians are that stupid" situation but 2 strategic bombers and AWACS parked right next to each other, seems too good to be true.

If so, it's a good day today!

Yes but no but -- Hungarian president still needs to sign, it can take a number of days, and in principle the president can refuse to sign and return the proposal back to the parliament. Unlikely, perhaps, but the fat lady sings only when the instrument is delivered to NATO.

As usual with these questionnaires, the further you are removed from the Evil Empire, the less pressing the matter seems. I don't think the Mediterraneans have been fully on board before, either. I do get your point. But over here next to the leningrad oblast I think we understand giving up is the worst option.

Another equipment counting video, this time on artillery. Russia has drawn deeply from storage depots, although much still remains.

Re the illustration in the article, that toad will never become a prince no matter how many times you kiss it. But if it took French-Italian diplomacy to get Orban to finally stop blocking the aid, kudos to Meloni and Macron.

This has potential to be huge: https://www.kyivpost.com/post/26885 Ukranians reaching leningrad by drone means they can strike ust-luga and primorsk, two out of three big oil export terminals on the western side of russia. Third being novorossisk, which, well ... Ukraine might decide to go sanctions schmanctions at some point and truly bork russian exports for good. At the very least russia needs to dedicate some resources to guard against careless smoking at the oil terminals, which is away from other uses ...

The gnome from hell threatens Chechen dissidents' relatives with government-executed vendetta (google translated article in the link): https://www-hs-fi.translate.goog/ulkomaat/art-2000010094965.html?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp&_x_tr_hist=true Seems like symptoms of a shaky throne to me, though I don't know how regular such threats are over there.

Sorry Haiduk, but this is just plain wrong. That may have been Stalin's intent but ADD was not up to the task. The February bombings caused a small amount of damage only. They did manage to completely demolish their own embassy though. The bricks of that building were recycled and used in student accommodaton buildings in the 50s. I spent a couple of years in that campus myself as well... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bombing_of_Helsinki_in_World_War_II

Step by step this war gets more unpleasant. CNN claims russians are now using tear gas: https://edition.cnn.com/2023/12/19/europe/ukraine-soldiers-russia-frontlines-cmd-intl/index.html While "only" tear gas, having to scramble for your mask and having to wear it hampers observation and defending your trench for sure.

Should install the whitewash mod.

Continuing on the sanctions topic, this can be rather significant if it becomes more than just words: Denmark might start inspecting russian tankers passing Storebaelt: https://maritime-executive.com/article/denmark-may-begin-checking-russian-tankers-insurance-in-baltic If it came to altogether blocking primorsk as an oil terminal, russia could maybe divert some pipeline oil to arctic direction. But I don't know if that route would have comparable capacity. primorsk is pretty major. My crystal ball says that if EU really throttles the Baltic route for russian oil, some of those poor old vessels will have an accident, either spill a bit on the shores of Copenhagen or knock on the Storebaelt bridge. But the crystal ball isn't sure which one.

Baltic sea, such a rough place for undersea infrastructure... another telecom link damaged, this time between Estonia and Sweden. https://www.dn.se/sverige/forsvarsministern-haller-presstraff-om-kritisk-infrastruktur-i-havet/ Must be earthquakes. Or Jaws.

And this is why navies already in WW2 had torpedoes that were set to run under their targets and detonate with magnetic triggers. Didn't work out perfectly in the beginning, Germans had trouble in the Norwegian campaign and everyone knows the multitude of problems the US Navy had with Mark 14. But the intent was clear.

There wasn't much reaction to the Svalbard comms cable incident either last year https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/security/2022/02/unknown-human-activity-behind-svalbard-cable-disruption Should always remember that quip Lenin made about bayonets when dealing with Russia. Push back with steel when they probe.