How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Aragorn2002]

4 hours ago, sburke said:

Actually, he's a pretty unimaginative commander.  His background was discussed a few pages back I think.  As to combat experience applicable to the current fight, nah Syria wasn't even close.  While it is a move in the right direction for the Russians to finally recognize their C2 issues, this guy is unlikely to make much of a dent.

however he definitely fits the mold for what Putin wants.

 

 

 

Hopefully he has the habbit of visiting the front often...

[The Steppenwulf]

I bet no one dare wake Putler to give him the bad news  

[LongLeftFlank]

23 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

Hopefully he has the habbit of visiting the front often...

"Quand l'ennemi fait un faux mouvement , il faut se garder de l'interrompre."

Edited April 14, 2022 by LongLeftFlank
Yeah, Galeev again, but this painting is quite something....

[Aragorn2002]

1 hour ago, CAZmaj said:

PUBLIC SERVICE ANNOUNCEMENT
From The Russian Coast Guard

Recent reports of Russian navy's flagship Moskva sinking are untrue. The Russian navy has converted the cruiser into a new type of submarine. It is undergoing its first underwater trials on the Black Sea  LOL

[Chibot Mk IX]

Holy cow, sinking the Moskva??? That's incredible!

2 hours ago, Saberwander said:

Hopefully Moskva news is true. I'd love to see a big loss like that. If the strike happened it means that Ukraine is starting to feel confident about their defense of Odesa. My theory was that Ukraine held back the Neptunes (kept them hidden) in order to make amphibious landing incredibly risky. Could be the reason why Russia navy did not do their "thunder run to Kyiv" by landing in Odesa early in the war. Will be fascinating to hear more about this when info becomes available.

That's my thought too. With the threat of landing in Odesa is gone, Ukraine Land based AShM units can change from "hide and seek" to "seek and destroy" mode . And they can concentrate several units in the same area to achieve a missile saturation attack.

 

Now the question is, what is Moskva doing at zmiinyi island? 

1, Protect other vessel in the SAG and doing a deep land strike with Kalibr?

2, Or it is a patrol mission?  Moskva and other vessels patrol around zmiiny island, using it's long range SAM to intimidate the US surveillance aircraft/UAV operating in the region? 

 

[The_Capt]

53 minutes ago, Fenris said:

Second part of this tweet

 

Just…wow…seriously, we are going to be studying what the Ukrainian military pulled off in this war for the rest of the century.

[G.I. Joe]

2 minutes ago, Chibot Mk IX said:

Holy cow, sinking the Moskva??? That's incredible!

That's my thought too. With the threat of landing in Odesa is gone, Ukraine Land based AShM units can change from "hide and seek" to "seek and destroy" mode . And they can concentrate several units in the same area to achieve a missile saturation attack.

 

Now the question is, what is Moskva doing at zmiinyi island? 

1, Protect other vessel in the SAG and doing a deep land strike with Kalibr?

2, Or it is a patrol mission?  Moskva and other vessels patrol around zmiiny island, using it's long range SAM to intimidate the US surveillance aircraft/UAV operating in the region? 

 

Both sound plausible to me, and they're not at all mutually exclusive...

[Aragorn2002]

Couldn't sleep, but the thought of a burning and sinking Moskva will give me a couple of hours more. Counting dead Russians. So much better than counting sheeps.

[BeondTheGrave]

Havnt seen this posted here yet, apologies if it has.

 

Seems that the Slava can only track one air target at a time, theory is this may have caused it to miss the incoming ASMs. Would explain why two missiles broke through CIWS. 

edit: should say for context, the theory is Ukraine used a TB-2 as a distraction to get the radar turned around, the other systems (or just the operator himself) failed to notice the incoming sea-level missiles until it was too late the activate other measures. 

Edited April 14, 2022 by BeondTheGrave

[Kinophile]

Ref Zhukov - he was a political animal, a survivor. That's how he got to the top, not real ability, but climbing over his executed competitors and the mountainous piles of his dead soldiers. Stalin's purges opened a path and he went for it.

Any barely competent butcher can defeat an enemy on the ropes if you just throw enough live humans at the machine guns. He had strategic vision but it was a very crude, blunt and simplistic mindset. Dramatic crayon arrows on maps, kind of thing.

Dvornikov is just a pale shadow of Zhukov. Same stupid cruel brutality masquerading as fierce focus. He lacks Zhukov's vision and is unable to instill hope or confidence in his men. He's a 4-decades old has-been, an old dog with no new tricks, he doesn't have the legions of soldiers that Zhukov could use to bludgeon his way to victory and he is unable to develop any fresh ideas for a new, unique problem like Ukraine.

He set up the Russian command in Syria? Big whoop. He bombarded a lightly defended civilian population into extinction using jets dropping iron bombs, MLRS and barrel bombs. Whatever. So he knows how to kill women and children? So f#cking what. Not exactly a skill that's lacking in the New Tsar's Army.

If he was in any way more than just administravely competent then he would have broken through the JFO lines weeks ago, Mariupol would be a footnote and UKR forces in Donbass would be entrenching around Dnipro.

But he's not, so he hasn't and he won't.

This human filth squashed into a uniform should not be killed, he's perfectly suited to run the Russia Army straight into the blades of the Ukrainian Human Combine Harvester. 

He is exactly the opponent Ukraine needs.

Edited April 14, 2022 by Kinophile

[asurob]

19 minutes ago, BeondTheGrave said:

Havnt seen this posted here yet, apologies if it has.

 

Seems that the Slava can only track one air target at a time, theory is this may have caused it to miss the incoming ASMs. Would explain why two missiles broke through CIWS. 

Amazing if true...it's almost like the ship wasn't designed to fend off multiple naval air targets...which again would be crazy.

[Combatintman]

6 hours ago, Haiduk said:

The deficit of yellow tape ) 

A useful contribution from a smaller NATO nation might be a C-17 load of yellow tape then?

[BeondTheGrave]

7 minutes ago, asurob said:

Amazing if true...it's almost like the ship wasn't designed to fend off multiple naval air targets...which again would be crazy.

Not super crazy in the context of when the ship was built. IIRC in the 1980s the ability to track-while-scan was relatively new and pretty expensive. The Ticonderoga's and Aegis was built basically to solve this in the USN. The Moskva had a different role in the Soviet Navy and was more about delivering the killing blow to a CV at range. 

The crazy part is that in 40 years Moscow never decided to pull the trigger on the upgrades and decided, apparently, to leave it with much of the old installed equipment she launched with. It makes the money fire (literally!) Kuznetsov even more scandalous in hindsight. Shes in such bad shape that she has to sit out the war, BUT they've already poured a fortune into keeping her (barely) afloat and giving her major rebuilds. Imagine if that gone into upgrading the Moskva a phased radar instead. Or even just in a few more AWACs with naval search radar. 

[danfrodo]

10 minutes ago, BeondTheGrave said:

Not super crazy in the context of when the ship was built. IIRC in the 1980s the ability to track-while-scan was relatively new and pretty expensive. The Ticonderoga's and Aegis was built basically to solve this in the USN. The Moskva had a different role in the Soviet Navy and was more about delivering the killing blow to a CV at range. 

The crazy part is that in 40 years Moscow never decided to pull the trigger on the upgrades and decided, apparently, to leave it with much of the old installed equipment she launched with. It makes the money fire (literally!) Kuznetsov even more scandalous in hindsight. Shes in such bad shape that she has to sit out the war, BUT they've already poured a fortune into keeping her (barely) afloat and giving her major rebuilds. Imagine if that gone into upgrading the Moskva a phased radar instead. Or even just in a few more AWACs with naval search radar. 

maybe the money was allocated to upgrade the radar.  And it was instead to used to upgrade a yacht. 

[asurob]

3 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

maybe the money was allocated to upgrade the radar.  And it was instead to used to upgrade a yacht. 

This is the correct answer

[chris talpas]

7 minutes ago, BeondTheGrave said:

 

The crazy part is that in 40 years Moscow never decided to pull the trigger on the upgrades and decided, apparently, to leave it with much of the old installed equipment she launched with. It makes the money fire (literally!) Kuznetsov even more scandalous in hindsight. Shes in such bad shape that she has to sit out the war, BUT they've already poured a fortune into keeping her (barely) afloat and giving her major rebuilds. Imagine if that gone into upgrading the Moskva a phased radar instead. Or even just in a few more AWACs with naval search radar. 

Seeing a recurring theme of poorly maintained equipment and poor tactical operation now across all their forces (including the relatively absent Air Force too).  A real Potemkin village situation.

I love the irony/synchronicity of the postage stamp release and the successful attack on the Moskva 

[sburke]

Russian Empire

Born 2 November 1721

Died 13 April 2022

Cause.  Embarrassment

This is just crazy.  Man I'd love to be a fly on the wall at the kremlin to see Putin's reaction.  Zelensky should arrange for a stamp to be sent.  "would you like a little salt in your wound?"

[MSBoxer]

Very powerful, but uncomfortable to watch.  Perhaps that is the point
 

 

[danfrodo]

Kudos on the comedy today, Gents, several times I laughed out loud. 

So another day passes in Ukraine, and as I am wont to do, I notice that Putin's great offensive has not materialized.  And it seems to be raining.  And raining again tomorrow, then a few days mostly dry then some more rain or at least showers.  While this is surely miserable in the trenches for both sides, it certainly hampers mobility, which I think favors Ukraine for now.  And every day that passes means more gear and more training and more ready reserves for Ukraine. 

And so my hopes now start turning to that ~800km long line that Russia is going to try to hold, and wonder how it's going to keep Ukraine from locally overrunning and destroying weak sectors, one after another. 

 

[LongLeftFlank]

58 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

Couldn't sleep, but the thought of a burning and sinking Moskva will give me a couple of hours more. Counting dead Russians. So much better than counting sheeps.

You take your pleasures rather sadly, brother, do you not?

....That said, this is a splendid and low-cost victory for the Ukrainian Republic. Far more important than the military victory IMHO, it is a mortal symbolic blow to Russia's self-delusion.

The grieving mothers should of course look to Putin, to Russia's leadership, and to the broken civilization they have now burnt to the waterline. The resource curse which lets brutish village thugs rake in billions while the young people vote with their feet or drink themselves insensible.

Go, Putin! Leave. There is nothing for you, no victory to salvage, no dignity, no revenge. March out. Walk out. Crawl! But, in the name of God, go! No one will invade you. Nobody cares. Then, put a pistol to your head, and leave salvaging the wreck of your country to a committee of smaller, more cautious people. Out! Out!

 

[db_zero]

Probably nothing more than a coincidence but on same day the White House announced they will be sharing intelligence and targeting information the Russian flagship gets hit and sunk.

There is also a squadron of F-18 Wild Weasels operating in Europe and it was mentioned in a report they are capable of using their capabilities hundreds of miles away from within NATO airspace. These aircraft do more than just jam radars…

Like I said nothing more than a coincidence. The US would never interfere like this in a war, just like Russia would never interfere in US elections.

[db_zero]

2 hours ago, JonS said:

You do understand that this war is not abstract, right? There is a "tomorrow", and an "after the war"?

Seeding any country, let alone your own, with either FASCAM or any other cluster munition is a terrible idea.

That's probably why Ukraine has signed and ratified the Ottawa Treaty.

You made a good point and I forgot about the Ottawa Treaty so FASCAM is probably a no go. 
 

There was at one time research going on with artillery that would disperse smart munitions that had radar to detect tanks and attack from the top.

The Army did buy from Europe some smart artillery rounds designed to target tanks, so maybe these were sent or the Europeans who manufactures these rounds will just send directly as they are designed to be fired from NATO 155mm guns.

 

Edited April 14, 2022 by db_zero

[Battlefront.com]

I've been wondering when one of Putin's bathtub navy boats was going to get sunk while strutting around as if they own the place.  It was just a matter of time, I suppose.

Although I'm a ground warfare guy through and through, I have kept up on problems within the Russian navy and airforce.  There was a big fight a bunch of years back over budgets and army kept getting priority.  And it shows:

Last year:

7 years ago:

 

[Battlefront.com]

Another example of ripple effects from this war from a NY Times article summary.  It's been discussed a bit here and there since the war started, but this article puts some numbers in front of us:

 

Russia’s tech brain drain

In the first three weeks of March, an estimated 50,000 to 70,000 tech workers left Russia — an exodus that could fundamentally change the country.

An industry once seen as a rising force in the Russian economy is losing many of the bright young minds that are building companies for the future.

Among those who have left: about 300 software developers, entrepreneurs and other tech specialists who boarded two planes chartered by a venture capitalist to Yerevan, the capital of Armenia, in the weeks after the invasion. Thousands more flew to Georgia, Turkey, the United Arab Emirates and other countries that accept Russian citizens without visas.

Some left Russia because they objected to the war or feared that they could not speak their minds if they stayed. Working in tech, they had enough money to flee and could continue their work from anywhere with a laptop and an internet connection.

Others left because their companies pulled them out.

Tech is a small part of the Russian economy compared with the energy and metals industries but has been growing rapidly. The loss of many young, educated, forward-looking people could have economic ramifications for years to come, economists said.

“Before all this started, Russia had such a strong technology base,” said Artem Taganov, a founder of a Russian start-up who fled to Armenia. “Now, we have a brain drain that will continue for the next five to 10 years.”

[db_zero]

Russia has a relatively small military budget and navies are expensive to maintain. Most of the money for the navy goes into the submarine fleet and that isn’t much to write home about.