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How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?


Probus

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8 minutes ago, John Kettler said:

. I truly believe the first part of the engagement was with thermals and the second with TV. If I'm wrong about the first part, then why, even at a fair distance, is the tank a brilliant white?

Please look at the vid at the 0.08 mark right below the aiming cross. The tank is neither bright white, indeed it is rather dark grey/black, nor is that a TI image!

 

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42 minutes ago, John Kettler said:

Probus,

Frankly, I'm in shock, for the Tu-95 is a strategic bomber whose ceiling is 13. 7 kms, jetliner flight level, and from a turboprop aircraft which is faster than quite a few jets. Haven't the faintest idea where you ever got the notion the mighty Tu-95 would, in the normal course of business, be in the MANPADS or SHORADs envelope,

Regards,

John Kettler

 

John, ignore me. I had the TU-95 ceiling at 13,000ft not 13km well within range of the better MANPADS. I was just off by a factor of 3.  😄

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BeondTheGrave,

Would like to point out that the whole SEAD/DEAD thing is now far more complicated and demanding than it was during both the Vietnam War and the Yom Kippur War, because there has been a massive improvement in AD, starting with drastically improved SAM engagement capabilities. For example, an SA-2 site could handle one target at a time (ripple two max on one target), this with six single rail launchers. An SA-6 site could also do the same, but with four launchers. An S-300 series can handle either 4 or 6 simultaneously and a Buk series one per TELAR (6 x TELAR). Ref the Buk series, each has some capability to operate solo (baseline two engagements (ripple two) before reload, but Ph and Pk so high may not be needed), without any external radar support at all. Thus, the good old days of kill the radar, kill the site are gone when it comes to Buk and even Osa. Low level attack these days, especially on the steppe, is altogether too exciting these days, in the face of widely proliferated MANPADs (especially frontal aspect capable) SHORADS, hybrid SAM/AA systems, such as Tunguska, etc. Wild Weasel tactic these days would likely be near suicidal-suicidal compared to the two wars cited. Mind, this presumes crews manning the vehicles, proper training and motivation, as opposed tho the Pantsir S1 lost to a drone in Syria while the crew was outside smoking! 

Regards,

John Kettler

Edited by John Kettler
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Since we were discussing Russian order of battle a bit earlier, here are some good overview resources:

https://www.cna.org/CNA_files/PDF/IOP-2019-U-021801-Final.pdf

https://www.cna.org/CNA_files/PDF/Russian-Forces-in-the-Western-Military-District.pdf

https://www.cna.org/CNA_files/PDF/Russian-Forces-in-the-Southern-Military-District.pdf

Of course, the OOB in Ukraine has been supplemented with forces from the Central and Eastern MDs.

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33 minutes ago, sburke said:

Countries like the UK and Canada have laws banning their citizens from participating in military action against a country they are not at war with.

Not sure where that is coming from.  We had people joining the US, UK and Australian militaries and went on all sorts of “military action” in countries we are not at war with.  Ukraine is a partner force we had a military mission with so joining their military is pretty much the same thing.

Sounds like a either a myth or some weird law on the books that no one actually enforces.  ISIS foreign fighters can be charged for “support to a terrorist organization”, which is different.

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2 hours ago, BlackMoria said:

Nothing fishy.  It was reported by various Canadian news and media.  Outside Ukraine and Russia, the largest population of Ukrainians is in Canada.  

And doing up a patch like that can be done in a day or two.  Nothing hard about it.  

Also, the Canadian sniper with the world record sniper shot is over there with that brigade.  He got out of the military a number of year back and signed up for the International Legion.  According to the guy over there I was talking to, 'Wali' already has a impressive number of kills.  Apparently, he is averaging about 40 confirmed a day.  Of course, that might be some fanciful propaganda as well.  

Since Ramzan Kadyrov says he is in Ukraine....

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4 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Not sure where that is coming from.  We had people joining the US, UK and Australian militaries and went on all sorts of “military action” in countries we are not at war with.  Ukraine is a partner force we had a military mission with so joining their military is pretty much the same thing.

Sounds like a either a myth or some weird law on the books that no one actually enforces.  ISIS foreign fighters can be charged for “support to a terrorist organization”, which is different.

it is Al Jazeera so here have a lick of this salt rock.

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Not sure if this has been posted already, since it was last week (forgive me if I'm "doing a Kettler"), but I thought this was the most humorous equipment steal of the lot.

It's the second clip down - the guy in the side car looks like he's decided this booty is gonna' take pride of place in his front room! 
 

 

Edited by The Steppenwulf
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57 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

MV variant exists only in one copy for exhibitions. In service only early BTR-4E and some upgraded BTR-4E1, but both havn't thermals.

Haiduk,

Fascinating, especially since the BTR-4 in CMBS, based on my own use of it, does have thermals. Wonder why that tank was so bright white at range absent thermal sight to see it?

Regards,

John Kettler

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2 hours ago, John Kettler said:

Ultradave,

Fuel truck losses alone amount to 33 BTG fuel fills lost. Ouch! In the "just trucks" category, what I'm seeing in the TB2 strike video is selective targeting of trucks resulting in stupendous secondaries, which tells me these are ammo trucks being hit. Believe the Ukrainians know what Russian ammo trucks look like. Also of note is that Ukrainian Navy TB2s (they had 6 and may've gotten more since) are now being officially listed on their strike videos against Russian ground forces.

Regards,

John Kettler

Yeah, my point exactly. The loss of these fuel supplies and ammo has got to be really hurting the advance. Tanks usually measure fuel economy in gals/mile rather than miles/gal. 🙂   I didn't mean to minimize just "trucks" but that yes, the loss of the ammo and so many other supplies that keep mechanized forces moving has got to be putting the hurt on.

Dave

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I read the article earlier that Steve posted, pretty shocking stuff: 

"The Kremlin has only worsened investor fears by greenlighting a rule that allows Russian firms to steal intellectual property from companies that are home to “unfriendly” nations such as the U.S. and its allies. Under the Kremlin’s plans, Russian oligarchs could take over assets such as Coca-Cola’s bottling factories or Ford’s commercial van manufacturing plant and attempt to continue to manufacture and sell those products under the existing brand.

It struck me that this sort of thinking leads Russia into the cold, dark economic abyss that is North Korea - a self-imposed asylum!

Edited by The Steppenwulf
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1 hour ago, The Steppenwulf said:

Back to those MREs...
 

tyres however, are not on the list 😜

Here's an unboxing and tasting of the latest PLA MRE, the Type 13. THe own shown is but one variety. The troops don't like it these MREs, and consider them too bland, to the point where they bring their own food on exercises.
 

Regards,

John Kettler

Edited by John Kettler
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1 hour ago, akd said:

Since we were discussing Russian order of battle a bit earlier, here are some good overview resources:

https://www.cna.org/CNA_files/PDF/IOP-2019-U-021801-Final.pdf

https://www.cna.org/CNA_files/PDF/Russian-Forces-in-the-Western-Military-District.pdf

https://www.cna.org/CNA_files/PDF/Russian-Forces-in-the-Southern-Military-District.pdf

Of course, the OOB in Ukraine has been supplemented with forces from the Central and Eastern MDs.

If we're speaking about OOB's then I have two for you! I actually used the Western Military District file to build the 20th CAA.

20th CAA (The big one): https://www.dropbox.com/s/dihy0esulmh1zei/MASTERTOE 20th Combined Arms Army.btt?dl=0

and 93rd Mechanized Brigade: https://www.dropbox.com/s/hikoc5zk4vqlfvw/MASTERTOE 93rd Mechanized %2B 200th Motor Brigades.btt?dl=0

Edited by Artkin
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26 minutes ago, Ultradave said:

Yeah, my point exactly. The loss of these fuel supplies and ammo has got to be really hurting the advance. Tanks usually measure fuel economy in gals/mile rather than miles/gal. 🙂   I didn't mean to minimize just "trucks" but that yes, the loss of the ammo and so many other supplies that keep mechanized forces moving has got to be putting the hurt on.

Dave

This reminds me the PBEM games in WITP AE (War in the Pacific - Admiral's Edition), as IJN , you got to put USN's fleet oiler (AO) as high priority target at the early stage of the war. As USN, IJN's AO is always a high priority target from the day 1 to day 1000. 

100 fuel truck is a remarkable achievement if it is true. that is 1.25 of the Russian MTO brigade's tanker fleet.  It's going to really hurt, considering many of the Russian troops are >150km-200km ahead of their railhead / Army's main supply depot. under such circumstances, even assume a full strength , prefect condition MTO brigade is running the delivery 24/7,  they can barely make enough fuel delivery for one third of  Army's BTG to be operational.  

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2 hours ago, John Kettler said:

BeondTheGrave,

The IMR-2 is a CEV (Combat Engineering Vehicle) on a T-72 chassis. It is a multicapable vehicle focused first and foremost on route clearing, whether the issue is mines (has track width mine plows), streets blocked with debris,  craters to be filled (variable angle dozer blade which can also be used as a plow) and a clawed crane to do things like remove trees across the roadway, telephone poles, etc.. It can also be used to demolish structures by ramming and build things, too, such as installing telephone poles and such, dig emplacements, etc. 
 


Regards,

John Kettler

Nice, thanks!

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Kazan Tatar academic Kamil Galeev continues to provide very insightful tweetstorms on the cultural-historical and politico-economic dynamics in Russia that give context to this conflict. This is his 26th such:

Unrolled thread (sans images) for after the Twits start chiming in, breaking the feed....

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1503430216554795014.html

Every major crisis entails mass redistribution of power, property and status....

Oligarchs' assets frozen, Russian central bank assets frozen. It's the annulment of obligations to both Russian "state" and "private" actors. Arrest of mega yachts are just the most visible element of a general trend - seize what you can seize. It goes both ways though.... 

 During the Soviet Jubilee of 1989-1991 this was happening on all levels. Whoever borrowed some direct control over resources, privatised them. They cashed out and defaulted on their loans. State-appointed CEOs became oligarchs. Governors became kings in their provinces. And so on....

Anyway, it goes on to describe how Putin recentralized power -- and graft! -- among his cronies and backers, but now may stand to lose it back to regional 'barons' as central authority breaks down, again, in the wake of a humiliating defeat....

Galeev also notes elsewhere that Ukraine has its own mafiya 'barons' who have no wish to bend the knee and pay the rake to Moscow.

Edited by LongLeftFlank
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1 hour ago, The Steppenwulf said:

Back to those MREs...
 

tyres however, are not on the list 😜

So what I'm reading here is that, in addition to not rotating the tires properly, Russia failed to properly store and replace spoiling MREs. At 17 I learned how to keep a restaurant fridge its not really that hard. First in first out, and if it turns blue and starts to smell you have to pitch it right away.....

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2 hours ago, sburke said:

it is a little complicated, but right now I think any western country that tried to prosecute its citizens for going to Ukraine would face a severe public backlash.

 

Ukraine’s foreign legion joins the battle against Russia (msn.com)

Although officials from Canada, the United Kingdom, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Latvia and other countries have openly or tacitly encouraged their citizens to join the Ukrainian army in its fight against Russia, there have also been questions about the legality of such an undertaking.

Countries like the UK and Canada have laws banning their citizens from participating in military action against a country they are not at war with.

 

So, when/if they return home, they’re charged, tried, and if convicted, sentenced to 5(insert local currency here), or one hour community service. Case closed.

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Hopefully this is not a re-post

A very emotional video clip

Ukrainian Pianist Plays A Final Rendition Of Chopin In The Ruins Of Her House

Quote
A Ukrainian pianist plays her piano amidst a destroyed home, one last time, before being forced to flee.
Irina Maniukina brushes the ashes off the keys of her grand piano, as she sits down to play Chopin’s Étude Op. 25, No. 1 (Aeolian Harp) in her family home one last time.

 

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