How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[DesertFox]

Next up sale for ebay?

 

 

[womble]

There's what looks like a level-headed and well-informed (apart from being a bit unspecific about the manner of weapon use in the area) on the BBC News site.

They also have some reportage about the reaction of Russian relatives of people under bombardment in Ukraine. I am boggled that parents will believe the goggle box over actual eyewitness reports from their children. It goes to show how pervasive the Russian propaganda machine is, and for how long it's been feeding its populace (especially the ones who haven't grown up on social media, I'd imagine) a line of bull.

[Sgt Joch]

4 hours ago, kraze said:

https://russianfield.com/netvoine

(in russian)

According to sociology - 58.8% russians currently support the war outright.

More than enough to bring another "putin" into power if this one goes but nothing changes globally in there.

Not surprising, I saw another estimate on twitter of roughly 68% In the initial phase of a war, a majority of citizens generally support their own government. That may change if the war lasts months and turns decisively against RussIa.

Implication of course is that the western hope that Putin may be overthrown in a few days or weeks is just wishful thinking.

Edited March 4, 2022 by Sgt Joch

[Armorgunner]

8 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

Sorry for being morbid, but most of them were so burnt that I don't think anything will grow from them.

 

Oh, it will come a babushka with sunflower seed soon enough. Dont you worry, it will grow. 

Edited March 4, 2022 by Armorgunner

[Bulletpoint]

1 minute ago, Sgt Joch said:

Implication of course is that the western hope that Putin may be overthrown in a few days or weeks is just wishful thinking.

I don't think many people are expecting him to be overthrown in a matter of days or weeks, but in the event of defeat.

It could be that this war bogs down into a stalemate, with the Russians holding on to the gains they already made, but the Ukrainians unable to dislodge them - like in the Donbas regon for the last eight years.

A long stalemate would be a loss of face for Putin, but nothing like if Russian Army would be routed and kicked out of Ukraine completely. That's pretty impossible to spin as a victory.

[BeondTheGrave]

 

Edited March 4, 2022 by BeondTheGrave

[Probus]

1 minute ago, BeondTheGrave said:

 

Russian friendly fire or Ukrainian friendly fire?

[kraze]

10 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

It could be that this war bogs down into a stalemate, with the Russians holding on to the gains they already made, but the Ukrainians unable to dislodge them - like in the Donbas regon for the last eight years.

Last 8 years have seen no tries to dislodge anything because those years were spent preparing for the current events, both militarily and diplomatically.

Nothing has changed inside russian army, which is still stuck with the doctrine from the 80s, while our army used maximum US and UK instructor help to upgrade our doctrine to the modern way of fighting.

Unfortunately most of our technology is still outdated but see what difference modernization of tactics makes.

Now if only we had a modern anti-air defense there would be a lot lot less civilian casualties.

I mean NATO is quite pussy when it comes to russian bluff and that's why russians grew so mad and out of control to a point of starting this war due to no punishment - but could've at least tried to help us solve the AAA problem which would make things infinitely less complicated.

Edited March 4, 2022 by kraze

[BeondTheGrave]

7 minutes ago, Probus said:

Russian friendly fire or Ukrainian friendly fire?

As I read it Red on Red. Russian friendly fire. By my calculation thats most of a company too isn't it? 

Edited March 4, 2022 by BeondTheGrave

[Lethaface]

12 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

For anybody wanting a succinct crash course on everything from the roots of the current war back to Putin's rise to power back to the Khanate of the Golden Horde, Kamil Galeev has done some superb work here, very readable:

Relevant sample:

A lot has changed [since 2014]. First, Ukraine has had six drafts. Men were drafted and sent to Donbass. Then most demobilised and returned to civilian life. This Donbass contingent was around 60 thousand soldiers and constantly rotated. So now Ukraine has 400 000+ veterans of Donbass war 
Many of them were in combat. Thus Ukraine has huge number of veterans with combat experience. Probably more than Russia.

Yes, Russia has been fighting in Syria. It never published the size of its force but it's estimated to be 2-3 thousand. Most Russian soldiers have not seen war. Furthermore, combat they've seen is different.

Finally, Ukraine created a new type of troops - the troops of territorial defence, whose number is estimated in 60 000. It's a copy of the Polish troop type. These are civilians who get military training and can be mobilised in a day to fight only in their own town and region.

Equipment-wise this war took Ukrainian army half-resupplied. It developed many innovative weaponry of its own, but almost none of it was produced on large scale.

[Russian] troops pushed forward leaving many non-destroyed Ukrainian regulars and levy behind. In a proper Blitzkrieg, a second and third echelon would have come to finish Ukrainian defenders. But these additional echelons didn't exist. Which immediately created the supply and replenishment problem.... supply convoys are being attacked by the regulars and territorial defence troops left behind.

Thanks, interesting threads.

[Probus]

8 minutes ago, kraze said:

Last 8 years have seen no tries to dislodge anything because those years were spent preparing for the current events, both militarily and diplomatically.

Nothing has changed inside russian army, which is still stuck with the doctrine from the 80s, while our army used maximum US and UK instructor help to upgrade our doctrine to the modern way of fighting.

Unfortunately most of our technology is still outdated but see what difference modernization of tactics makes.

Now if only we had a modern anti-air defense there would be a lot lot less civilian casualties.

I mean NATO is quite pussy when it comes to russian bluff and that's why russians grew so mad and out of control to a point of starting this war due to no punishment - but could've at least tried to help us solve the AAA problem which would make things infinitely less complicated.

Do you think the large amounts of Stingers/MANPADS flowing into Ukraine will help reduce the Russian air force?  Its gotta take a toll on their Helicopters and SU-25(like) aircraft.  It can reach out and touch someone up to at least 10,000ft.

[The_Capt]

So been tracking this daily, now that we are in Day 9.  I do not post my resume, largely because most people would not believe it if I did, so take what I say -as with everything else these days- with a good dose of salt.  But in my professional opinion I would sum up the Russian performance thus far as:

[Battlefront.com]

7 hours ago, Taranis said:

Here gentlemen is what i've got about T-90 from a 2020 report :

Very useful, thank you!

Steve

[Holien]

 

Not my graphic work, but just seen it and I could caption it Steve and his wife in Bed?

But it could equally apply to me and everyone else on this thread...

Please don't put me on a vacation....

[kraze]

23 minutes ago, Probus said:

Do you think the large amounts of Stingers/MANPADS flowing into Ukraine will help reduce the Russian air force?  Its gotta take a toll on their Helicopters and SU-25(like) aircraft.  It can reach out and touch someone up to at least 10,000ft.

When talking about proper AAA only something like Patriots will help.

US / UK were sending us Stingers because they legit thought the war will quickly turn into a very long and bloody war of insurgency, slowly bleeding Russia - but with current events it appears that much suffering can be prevented if russians will stop having an advantage in the air, not to mention most likely shorten the war considerably without it ever going too far.

TL;DR: a few "gifted" Patriot systems manned by the International Legion "volunteers" will make all the difference in the world while formally keeping NATO out of it.

Edited March 4, 2022 by kraze

[Artkin]

7 hours ago, Taranis said:

Here gentlemen is what i've got about T-90 from a 2020 report :
Western District 
1GTA

Southern District :

49 CAA


58 CAA

For BMP-3 :

1GTA

 

49CAA

 

58CAA

I actually used this source to make the 20th CAA sometime around a week ago. They use t-72b3 and bmp-2 still. Does anyone know if these regiments/brigades come with 3 mechanized battalions and 1 motorized? Look at 49th CAA's inventory. 

[DesertFox]

5 minutes ago, kraze said:

TL;DR: a few Patriot systems manned by the International Legion "volunteers" will make all the difference in the world while formally keeping NATO out of it.

Yep. I guess some Reaper or Predator Squadrons operated by volunteers and fitted with Hellfires would also help to deal with that 40km convoy.

[Baneman]

5 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

Yep. I guess some Reaper or Predator Squadrons operated by volunteers and fitted with Hellfires would also help to deal with that 40km convoy.

Methinks the Ukrainians are leaving the convoy alone now that they have ( reportedly) stopped it moving forward.

Stationary it's just a fantastic drain on resources without making use of any of those resources in a militarily meaningful way.

[Aragorn2002]

1 hour ago, DesertFox said:

Next up sale for ebay?

 

 

Love those guys!

[Lethaface]

4 minutes ago, Baneman said:

Methinks the Ukrainians are leaving the convoy alone now that they have ( reportedly) stopped it moving forward.

Stationary it's just a fantastic drain on resources without making use of any of those resources in a militarily meaningful way.

Exactly, don't stop your enemy from making mistakes.

[womble]

29 minutes ago, kraze said:

TL;DR: a few "gifted" Patriot systems manned by the International Legion "volunteers" will make all the difference in the world while formally keeping NATO out of it.

I mean, if it was good enough for Vlad, back in 2014, why not use the same "ruse" back in his direction in this war? 

[dan/california]

This is quite bit more truth telling than I would expect. Unless cracks are starting to show.

Edited March 4, 2022 by dan/california
wasn't done

[womble]

Steve, as a keen Putin-watcher, how accurate/relevant would you say the Beeb's appreciation of the dictator's inner circle is?

[The_Capt]

Actually, I might have been a little too harsh in my assessment of Russian strategy, perhaps this is more accurate:

 

[chris talpas]

Interesting analysis on how Russian civil aviation is set to implode due to sanctions looking at aircraft leases, maintenance facility access and eventually spare parts.

Chris