How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Aragorn2002]

6 minutes ago, akd said:

Seriously.  Don’t Russians think it is odd that, overall, their country has become more prosperous as more neighbors joined EU and NATO?

So what's the problem?

[Bulletpoint]

Just now, Lethaface said:

It's always about the economy. But consider economy to be a separate thing from defense or politics at your peril.

We disagree here. "It's the economy, stupid" is a phrase coined in a democratic free-market country.

[DMS]

4 minutes ago, akd said:

Don’t Russians think it is odd that, overall, their country has become more prosperous as more neighbors joined EU and NATO

Obviously not, as Euro Association provided closure of Ukrainian market for Russian goods and vice versa. That's what 2014 conflict was about. EU forced Yanukovich to sign it, he refused and was overthrown. 

[Aragorn2002]

24 minutes ago, Sgt Joch said:

Russia’s economy was disrupted by the 2014 sanctions and they have put measures in place since then to lessen the effectiveness of future western sanctions. Developing an alternative to SWIFT was one, they also developed: 1)closer relations with China, building pipelines and other infrastructure so they would have alternative markets; 2) doing transactions in currency other than U.S. dollars; 3) pushing foreign capital out of strategic industries and replacing it with Russian capital; 4) using more Russian produced goods instead of imports; 5) cracking down on opponents and independent media ,I.e. the “foreign agent” laws; and 6) building up a huge amount of liquid assets, over U.S. $600 billion last time I checked

Now all this does not mean Russia cannot be hurt by western sanctions, but they have more of a cushion than last time.

I don’t think this necessarily means this war has been planned for a long time.

You contradict yourself. If it was the result of the sanctions after the occupation of the Crimea, then it is more than likely they planned more aggression, which could result in more sanctions.

[Lethaface]

6 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

We disagree here. "It's the economy, stupid" is a phrase coined in a democratic free-market country.

Everybody needs to eat.

Edited February 25, 2022 by Lethaface

[Bulletpoint]

2 minutes ago, Lethaface said:

Everybody needs to eat.

How much people need to eat depends on the level of oppression. The people in the top will never go hungry.

Look at North Korea... common people have had to eat grass and tree bark to survive, but the regime is still there.

Edited February 25, 2022 by Bulletpoint

[Lethaface]

1 minute ago, Bulletpoint said:

How much people need to eat depends on the level of autocracy.

Nobody goes on empty stomachs. The more power to oligarchy/autocrats, the more hunger they have.

[Aragorn2002]

10 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

But how is this war ever going to help the Russian economy? Ukraine has good farmland... that's pretty much it. Not exactly the foundation of a strong, modern economy.

Compare that with the sheer cost of the sanctions. It doesn't make any sense to launch this war for economic reasons.

Putin wants much more than Ukraine. This is just the beginning. Those who want peace, prepare for war. The world has changed.

[Aragorn2002]

2 hours ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

I am from Finland.

Just now today it seems Sweden and Finland are making a rapid coordinated move to join NATO with article 5 going in to effect at the moment of application.

one source: https://www.iltalehti.fi/politiikka/a/51bc1d34-f37b-4195-8880-2879405e958e

Is there any news on this?

[Bulletpoint]

3 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

Putin wants much more than Ukraine. This is just the beginning. Those who want peace, prepare for war. The world has changed.

Or maybe the world has not changed, and we're only realising this now.

There was a British Intelligence Chief who was quoted on BBC for saying something along the lines of "What we're seeing here is a collective failure of the imagination in the west for not being able to imagine that Putin would actually attack".

[Centurian52]

16 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

Putin wants much more than Ukraine. This is just the beginning. Those who want peace, prepare for war. The world has changed.

I agree that he wants more. But Ukraine is as far as Putin can go without triggering a full NATO response. Poland is a NATO country. Romania is a NATO country. Hungary, Slovakia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia are all NATO countries. It is impossible for him to push any further than Ukraine without attacking a NATO country. The Russian military is very powerful (the 3rd strongest military in the world), but it cannot fight all of NATO. Modern day Russia is not the Soviet Union.

The Soviet Union may or may not have been able to defeat NATO, but at least it wasn't unreasonable to debate whether or not it could. Modern Russia doesn't even have a chance. It doesn't even rise to the level of a plausible "what-if" scenario.

edit: Ok, I suppose he might be able to try for Moldova with some hope of dodging a full NATO response.

Edited February 25, 2022 by Centurian52

[CHEqTRO]

23 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

But how is this war ever going to help the Russian economy? Ukraine has good farmland... that's pretty much it. Not exactly the foundation of a strong, modern economy.

Compare that with the sheer cost of the sanctions. It doesn't make any sense to launch this war for economic reasons.

Well, Ukraine represents around 10% of Russia GDP, so that would be nice to incorporate. Also, getting 40 million more people to tax and that can produce goods for your economy is not too bad. Ukranian farming is extremely important for European market, something that now Russia would control. Also its coal mines, making russian coal more valuable. Just as an example. Or maybe the plan its to just loot the Ukranian state to keep the Russian economy, and so its war machine operative for just a bit longer (Similar to the reason why the Germans went to war back in the 30s)

Also, the economy of an state is represented by the capacity of such state to produce and consume goods. That its still relevant for a free market country or for a closed communist one. Something in the chain of production of the Russian economy must be disturbed or lacking. What, I dont know, but something that is sufficently problematic to provoque this course of action. 

There is also the complete shift in the balance of power in Europe, which leaves Russia in a better position to apply soft power, for example.

[CHEqTRO]

Also:

[borg]

I still can’t fathom the idea - that a country is invading another country - and the rest of the world is watching & talking - Sanctioning and freezing . Aren’t there any rules / violations when a country decides to enter another sovereign state and attack its capital , people and many other cities . Sorry for the rant . But I’m trying to find solace about the rationale.

[Aragorn2002]

14 minutes ago, Centurian52 said:

I agree that he wants more. But Ukraine is as far as Putin can go without triggering a full NATO response. Poland is a NATO country. Romania is a NATO country. Hungary, Slovakia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia are all NATO countries. It is impossible for him to push any further than Ukraine without attacking a NATO country. The Russian military is very powerful (the 3rd strongest military in the world), but it cannot fight all of NATO. Modern day Russia is not the Soviet Union.

The Soviet Union may or may not have been able to defeat NATO, but at least it wasn't unreasonable to debate whether or not it could. Modern Russia doesn't even have a chance. It doesn't even rise to the level of a plausible "what-if" scenario.

Is that really true? I'm not so sure. What if the US is involved in a war with China? Does Europe has the strength to stop a Russian attack in the Baltics? Or an attack on Poland, Finland or Sweden? Nuclear weapons are useless. Nobody in his right mind will use them first, so it will be a more or less conventional war. 

Our false sense of safety and superiority can become our downfall. Didn't most of us believe Putin would never dare to challenge the West by invading Ukraine?

Edited February 25, 2022 by Aragorn2002

[John Kettler]

CHEqTRO (et al.),

Ref your video showing other destroyed or abandoned Ukrainian equipment, and unable to slow down, much less freeze frame the video, what I saw was a HQ unit on the road to the right, evidenced by that telltale clutch of BBVs (Box Body Vans). Of particular note on the right was the TELAR of what the Russians called 9K33 Romb and we called SA-8/GECKO. It was that DUKW looking thing with six big tires and that tall canvas shrouded thing which is the turret to which are attached acquisition radar, tracking radar, data links for the missiles, LLTV, and the missile launchers themselves, presumably loaded. Earlier models had four exposed missiles. Later ones had four missiles in canisters, ultimately six. For years, we in the west thought this was an AFV--until British intel IR photography conclusively proved it wasn't. It is amphibious, too. 



Regards,

John Kettler

[Lethaface]

5 minutes ago, borg said:

I still can’t fathom the idea - that a country is invading another country - and the rest of the world is watching & talking - Sanctioning and freezing . Aren’t there any rules / violations when a country decides to enter another sovereign state and attack its capital , people and many other cities . Sorry for the rant . But I’m trying to find solace about the rationale.

When has the world different?

[CHEqTRO]

More cyberattacks....

 

 

[Commanderski]

All that is happening is almost exactly how the West reacted to Hitler's early incursions and even the invasion of Poland. Hopefully the end result won't be the same. We never learn from history and which is why we repeat it.

[Erwin]

Knowing what we do about the difficulty and lethality of fighting in urban areas, maybe the best chance Ukraine has is to suck the Russians into fighting through Kyiv (and other urban areas).

6 minutes ago, borg said:

I still can’t fathom the idea - that a country is invading another country - and the rest of the world is watching & talking - Sanctioning and freezing . Aren’t there any rules / violations when a country decides to enter another sovereign state and attack its capital , people and many other cities . Sorry for the rant . But I’m trying to find solace about the rationale.

The problem as with Hitler invading Poland in '39 is that it is very hard/impossible to project meaningful power from far away.  US will face same problem when China makes its move vs Taiwan.

Re all those Javelins and Stingers sent to Ukraine.  We should be (finally) getting good data re their effectiveness.  It's odd that these systems are rarely mentioned.

[Sgt Joch]

34 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

You contradict yourself. If it was the result of the sanctions after the occupation of the Crimea, then it is more than likely they planned more aggression, which could result in more sanctions.

no, wanting to be free of U.S. sanctions does not mean it was done for further aggression. There are many reasons why Russia, China, etc. would not want to be subject to U.S. sanctions which do not involve war.

[Bulletpoint]

3 minutes ago, Erwin said:

The problem as with Hitler invading Poland in '39 is that it is very hard/impossible to project meaningful power from far away.

I think the real problem was explaining to the people of Britain / USA why exactly it was their problem that Germany had invaded Poland and why their young men had to go there to die.

[Erwin]

And again from WSJ re China's stance:

"Chinese internet users openly mocked what they saw as a toothless response by Western countries to the Russian assault on Ukraine, while drawing parallels to Taiwan, a separately-governed island off the coast of mainland China that Beijing has vowed to take control of, by force if necessary."

"In an editorial published Thursday, the Global Times warned that the West’s lackluster response to Ukraine crisis should serve as a warning to Taiwan’s ruling party, which has embraced Washington as it seeks more distance from the Chinese Communist Party.

“The performance of the U.S. in Ukraine should remind ‘Taiwan independence’ advocates: You cannot rely on Washington,” the editorial read.

Many Chinese internet users seized on the theme and called for Taiwan to learn from Ukraine’s predicament. One popular meme showed a pig labeled “Taiwan” watching another pig, marked “Ukraine,” being slaughtered."

[Bulletpoint]

I think a key difference between Ukraine and Taiwan is that the USA has publicly promised to intervene if China attacks. No such promise has ever been given about Ukraine, as far as I am aware.

[Vic4]

From NY Times: 2.25 - 11:00 AM PT

 

A satellite image taken on Friday shows helicopters lined up in Belarus, around 20 miles from Ukraine’s border.Credit...Maxar Technologies

Satellite images collected on Friday show more than 90 helicopters lined up across five miles of road in a rural area of Belarus, 90 miles from the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv. The aircraft include both attack and transport helicopters, the same types seen Thursday in Russia’s assault on an airport outside Kyiv. 

The decision to position the aircraft along a road close to Ukraine instead of a base appears designed to facilitate rapid deployments.

“It’s sort of the perfect range really,” said Tom Bullock, an analyst at Janes, about the location. “It gives these pilots much more ability to go into some of Russia’s main front lines, such as Kyiv.” Bullock says the aircraft include Ka-52 attack and Mi-8 transport helicopters.

Image

 

A long line of helicopters, seen parked on a street on Friday in Belarus.Credit...Maxar Technologies

Over the last few days there have been numerous reports of heavy fighting on the outskirts of Kyiv. The satellite images from today also show increased military activity in this same area of Belarus, including Russian ground forces lined up.

Edited February 25, 2022 by Vic4
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