Haiduk Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 (edited) 3 hours ago, Armorgunner said: Belorussia faked a crashed drone, and say it was a Urkrainian one. But the picrures they show, shows a Russian Orlan 10. Does Ukraine even have any Orlan 10? @Haiduk maybe have more info? We havn't Orlans. But this is neither Russian Orlan nor UKR Spectator M1, like claimed Belarus. Looks like DIY UAV, probably used by smugglers or even this drone was made specially for information provocation. Edited February 7, 2022 by Haiduk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sgt.Squarehead Posted February 8, 2022 Share Posted February 8, 2022 The thoughts of the Quincy Institute, (via Responsible Statecraft): https://responsiblestatecraft.org/2022/01/20/diplomats-experts-negotiate-or-expect-drastic-escalation-by-russia/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 Russian invasion cancelled - after the warming their tanks have sunk in the mud Rostov oblast, Russia 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 (edited) Yesterday Russia issued NOTAMs, which closed approaches to Ukrainian ports on Azov and Black Seas on 13th-19th Feb. Restricted area spreads almost to 12miles territorial waters zone. In these days Russia will conduct huge naval maneuvers of all fleets. Also six large landing ships of Baltic fleet entered to Black sea, having troops and vehicles embarked onboard. After sharp reaction of Ukraine, NATO and USA, Russia cancelled NOTAM for Azov sea, but remained for Black Sea. Ukraine still have narrow corridor along Romanian coast, but most of large ships can't sail by this route. In nearest days Ukraine expected six large cargo ships with a coal. Also 95 % of sea export is a ratio of Black Sea ports and Ukraine can lost about 60% of export money for this week Russian Rosgvardia (Russian National Guard) units spotted, moving in direction toward Ukrainain borders. Among them battalion "Sever" ("North"), belonged to Chechen Repuplic. These units can be used as occupation and law-support forces on seized territories. Several hours ago Biden told to NATO-leaders, Putin had taken a decision to go ahead with invasion. All US citizens should to leave Ukraine within nearest 48 hours: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/11/biden-ukraine-us-russian-invasion-winter-olympics On other hand sources of CNN claims USA specially makes much alarm to deter Russian intentions: https://edition.cnn.com/2022/02/11/politics/biden-administration-russia-intelligence/index.html Despite this the embassys of UK, Japan, Korea, Israel, Norway, Estonia, Latvia and Denmark warned own citizens to leave Ukraine as quickly as possible. Netherlands embassy is moving to Lviv in western Ukraine. Edited February 11, 2022 by Haiduk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holien Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 Thanks for the update Haiduk. Your update gives us detail not seen in the general news and is very worrying. Let's hope the often repeated words "Russia will not invade Ukraine" from Putins henchmen is true. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aragorn2002 Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 (edited) 49 minutes ago, Holien said: Thanks for the update Haiduk. Your update gives us detail not seen in the general news and is very worrying. Let's hope the often repeated words "Russia will not invade Ukraine" from Putins henchmen is true. No matter what happens, this should be a wake up call for NATO and especially for it's European members to prepare for another cold war and drastically increase it's defence forces, to be able to wage war if necessary. It's sickening to see how little we've learned from history. Personally I also resent being dependent on the US for our safety and diplomatic options. Still, if Europe has to chose between the US, Russia or China, the choice ain't difficult. Edited February 12, 2022 by Aragorn2002 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zmoney Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 Well said Aragorn. I hope war doesn’t break out. A lot of wasteful death. One thing I saw or read a few days ago which made me curious, was a report stating that the Russians have deployed T72 & T80 but no T90 to the border area. Does anyone know why this would be? The article also stated that most of the Russian tanks weren’t equipped with Thermo sights, can that be true? I was under the impression that all modern variations of the t72 & t80 had thermos. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chuckdyke Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 46 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said: Personally I also resent being dependent on the US for our safety and diplomatic options. Just watching the TV witnessing the circus over there. I won't see the end of this century, but I fear the US will be as relevant as Austria Hungary which was an empire just over a hundred years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 (edited) 1 hour ago, zmoney said: The article also stated that most of the Russian tanks weren’t equipped with Thermo sights, can that be true? T-72B3 are visible on many photos and videos - they have thermal sight. Though, there are also enough older T-72B/BA/mod.1989, arrived from Central, Syberia and Far East Military Districts. T-90A have to be near the border too - for example 136th mot.brigade from Dagestan - their T-90A participated in Luhansk airport assault in August 2014. Last time their camp was identified as far as in summer in Crimea. Probably they still there, but maybe moved in other place. Edited February 12, 2022 by Haiduk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 Spiegel claims US told own allies, Russian attack on Ukraine expected on 15th Feb: https://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/krise-in-osteuropa-cia-rechnet-mit-russischem-angriff-kommende-woche-a-2e10a45f-b6eb-4b1a-b692-2edc64c04adf?fbclid=IwAR311dLEB1Z853n-qd6LsDDxElKeBp_deEwf9PQGSdafzqIGiqT7ycXii1Y US embassy in Kyiv is evacuating all personnel, who do not occupy important positions. Russian MFA made a statement about "optimization of Russian embassy and consulates employees number because of risk of probable provocations" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aragorn2002 Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 (edited) 1 hour ago, chuckdyke said: Just watching the TV witnessing the circus over there. I won't see the end of this century, but I fear the US will be as relevant as Austria Hungary which was an empire just over a hundred years ago. And then Europe is really screwed... One of the few European countries that shows any realism is Sweden. I hope the European NATO countries will follow that example. Re-arm like hell and start making your own decisions. Edited February 12, 2022 by Aragorn2002 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chuckdyke Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 4 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said: And then Europe is really screwed... First time ever a Dissident President it won't survive a second one. Opposed his own judiciary and police force. I am not a lover of the present liberal democrats, but they stepped over the line there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 (edited) RQ-4 night mission over Ukraine. Main attention to northern direction (Kyiv) Edited February 12, 2022 by Haiduk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
z1812 Posted February 12, 2022 Author Share Posted February 12, 2022 RT has reported that Russia has removed their embassy staff from Ukraine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holien Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 2 hours ago, z1812 said: RT has reported that Russia has removed their embassy staff from Ukraine. Sad news and I hope that Ukraine can surprise everyone and stave off any foreign force that comes uninvited into their country. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aragorn2002 Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 (edited) 1 hour ago, Holien said: Sad news and I hope that Ukraine can surprise everyone and stave off any foreign force that comes uninvited into their country. Too many similarities with the 1930s to my liking. Russia and China in a new Axis alliance. We all know what that will bring. War. This wouldn't have happened if we had allowed Ukraine to become a NATO member. We owe them something after the Holodomor... Edited February 12, 2022 by Aragorn2002 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin2k Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 9 hours ago, Aragorn2002 said: It's sickening to see how little we've learned from history. Personally I also resent being dependent on the US for our safety and diplomatic options. Man, do I also belong to the "we" and the "our" you are writing about? I am from the same country, you know? I have no solidarity with it. Still in the previous ****-storm, and THEY are ramping up the next one already (or just bluffing about it). But I will have no part in any of it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 (edited) Meanwhile on another side of Russia... Encounter of Russian Pacific Fleet large antisubmarine ship (frigate) "Marshal Shaposhnikov" (pr.1155M, NATO code Udaloy-class) with US Virginia-class submarine near Urup island. Russians claimed US submarine was in Russian waters, Russians used some "appropriate means", whereupon submarine "used a self-propelled simulator to split the target image on radar and acoustic control means into two parts and retreated from Russian territorial waters at a maximum speed" https://tass.com/defense/1402259 "Marshal Shaposhnikov" on the photo. The ship was under modernization since 2016 and in 2020 returned to service. It got Anti-ship missiles Uran and and cruise missiles Kalibr-NK as well as new equipment. Edited February 12, 2022 by Haiduk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aragorn2002 Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 (edited) 1 hour ago, Kevin2k said: Man, do I also belong to the "we" and the "our" you are writing about? I am from the same country, you know? I have no solidarity with it. Still in the previous ****-storm, and THEY are ramping up the next one already (or just bluffing about it). But I will have no part in any of it. Just for the record. I like Russians in general. Met quite a few and most of the time they were nice, generous and decent people. Obviously you are one of those, if I understand you correctly. But politically I resent Russia since it always seems to target the West. Sorry if I offended you, Kevin. I have the bad habbit of generalizing too much. Edited February 12, 2022 by Aragorn2002 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Redwolf Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 (edited) In my opinion the weather is a big deal. Russian doctrine doesn't like follow-on forces to bog down. Whether there will be frost conditions freezing the ground deep enough to prevent that this winter is a different matter. Otherwise I'm in the camp that an attack around the end of the winter olympics is planned. Edited February 12, 2022 by Redwolf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin2k Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 (edited) 2 hours ago, Aragorn2002 said: Just for the record. I like Russians in general. Met quite a few and most of the time they were nice, generous and decent people. Obviously you are one of those, if I understand you correctly. But politically I resent Russia since it always seems to target the West. Sorry if I offended you, Kevin. I have the bad habbit of generalizing too much. Yeah, sorry as well. I get a bit annoyed when people talk 'we' in relation to military. But since it is normally not about the country I live in, but the US or something, I usually don't care much. I have no connection with Putin either. I don't trust him. ( Even though my neglected facebook page says I work at the Kremlin. That is just a joke, since I had to put some rubbish in that field. ) Edited February 12, 2022 by Kevin2k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
womble Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 I'm finding some of the US intel announcements interesting. Sometimes, it's almost like they're telling the world and Putin that they have tabs on the agents-provocateurs who were intending false flag provocations to give Putin the justification he needs to change from "We have no intention of invading Ukraine." to "Our cousins in Ukraine need protecting from vile Kyiv. How fortunate we've more than 9000 troops just over the border." What they may be able to do with those appreciations, if they're legit, is another matter. Maybe just suggesting to Putin that they have proof which could later be made available would be enough to dissuade him from sending in the "little green men" (or their successors). Of course, the troops could truly be in place solely for exercises, as Vlad says, and the stories about false flag operations being detected just USAdian flim-flam. I get the feeling that now the exercises in Belarus have actually begun, any window for converting the troop presences into offensive movements across the Ukraine border has passed. Though that could just be smokescreen. How difficult would it be to turn that sort of wargame into advances along entirely different axes, with very different goals? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fireship4 Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 (edited) This is (hopefully) nothing, but an Aeroflot flight (at 5.00am N4187/NWS187 becoming N4187/AFL2614 at 6.05am over Voronesh) from Moscow SVO to Rostov-on-Don made an apparent turn toward Ukraine (according to flightradar24 data) and then disappeared. In the arrivals for the airport it shows as diverted to Milan Malpensa Airport in Italy (which makes no sense). EDIT 7.21: According to FR24 it seems this flight normally flies to Milan, but was en route to Rostov-on-Don when it made the turn and disappeared (again all of this is according to FR24, nothing else). EDIT 7.25: Planned route at take-off showed as Milan MXP over Belarus & Poland. EDIT 8.00: Very strange: 5.06am SU2614/AFL2614 reg. VP-BMO takes off, heads SW (265) toward Belarus 5.20/5.25am disappears. 5.28am N4187/NWS187 (reg. VP-BMO: same plane as above) appears to take off from SVO, though it was not shown on the ground like the other plane. Destination Rostov-on-Don, heading 158 with other planes. Had been scheduled to take off at 5.10 (this flight has had similar delays in recent days). 6.10 Same plane becomes N4187/AFL2614 over Voronesh, heads 236 toward Ukraine and disappears. Hopefully some kind of malfunction, some kind of scheduling mistake, or something. Not what it looks like. EDIT 8.08: Plane is present in both of these records, one as diverted, one as unknown: https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/n4187 https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/su2614 EDIT 8.20: SU2614 / AFL2614 now shows as landed at 5.22am in Milan, 16 mins after takeoff (!) EDIT: 8.42: SU2614 record linked above has updated, shows plane appearing over Krakow, Poland at 06.56, transiting Czechia & Austria, and landing at Milan MXP at 8.27 (N4187/NWS187 Nordwind flight still shows as unknown, should have landed around 6.45). Hopefully just some kind of mistake. Edited February 13, 2022 by fireship4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chuckdyke Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 A nation of great chess players and ballet dancers must have culture and civilization. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aragorn2002 Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 (edited) 54 minutes ago, chuckdyke said: A nation of great chess players and ballet dancers must have culture and civilization. And great Gregorian music, which I happen to like a lot. Edited February 13, 2022 by Aragorn2002 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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