z1812 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 FORECAST SERIES: Putin’s Likely Course of Action in Ukraine. This was written this past December. Forum members will probably find it interesting. https://www.aei.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/ISW-CT-Forecast-Series_Piece-2.pdf?x91208 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sgt.Squarehead Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Interesting read, but TBH it doesn't sound like they think that the probability of an invasion is very high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
z1812 Posted January 2, 2022 Author Share Posted January 2, 2022 27 minutes ago, Sgt.Squarehead said: Interesting read, but TBH it doesn't sound like they think that the probability of an invasion is very high. As I recall, there was no expectation of Russia moving into Crimea either. As the article says, the expected areas of interest to the Russians would be those with large ethnically Russian populations such as the Donbas(s). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Redwolf Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 27 minutes ago, z1812 said: As I recall, there was no expectation of Russia moving into Crimea either. As the article says, the expected areas of interest to the Russians would be those with large ethnically Russian populations such as the Donbas(s). There is also a non-bridge land connection to the Crimea. And the water crisis on Crimea which could be solved with the same land bridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
z1812 Posted January 2, 2022 Author Share Posted January 2, 2022 4 hours ago, Redwolf said: There is also a non-bridge land connection to the Crimea. And the water crisis on Crimea which could be solved with the same land bridge. Excellent point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Erwin Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 If Russia does invade it can kiss Nordstream II goodbye. That has cost many BILLIONS of Euros - most of which was invested by European companies: "The $11 billion pipeline has been built by the Kremlin-controlled gas giant Gazprom and half of the cost has been paid by European energy companies, namely Germany's Uniper (UN01.DE) and BASF's (BASFn.DE) Wintershall Dea (WINT.UL), international oil major Shell (RDSa.L), Austria's OMV (OMVV.VI) and France's Engie..." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nord_Stream#:~:text=For Nord Stream 2%2C the,is being financed by Gazprom. Need to keep that in perspective. The US doesn't want to look weak and ineffective. Russia cooperates by threatening Ukraine so that the US can look "tough". What does Russia really want? It wants Nordstream II activated so it gets foreign monies paid for its gas exports. Europe wants the same as it has a huge energy crunch this winter. European corporations and investors would lose a huge amount of money is Nordstream II is not activated. The whole scenario seems like a fake crisis designed to appear like the west "wins" by "forcing" Russia to back off Ukraine, disguising the huge win for Russia when it does what all of Europe wants - pump gas via Nordstream II. Seems reminiscent of the Cuba missile crisis which effectively resulted in Russia making the US (quietly some months later) remove missiles from Turkey. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fireship4 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 (edited) [Edit: Thanks for the article.] I have seen Germany criticised for the pipeline - giving Russia leverage over Europe. I always wondered if it was more about trying to stabilise the Russo-European relationship by making them reliant on each other. Am I wrong? Is it more to do with just needing the gas, not wanting nuclear power or what? [Edit 2: I also heard it might just be corruption on the German side... with a guy who works for Gazprom. Surely if that's true though it couldn't be the only factor.] [Edit 3: Part 1: https://www.aei.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/Strategic-Misdirection-An-Alternate-Framework-for-Understanding-Russia’s-Play-in-Ukraine.pdf?x91208 Part three is yet to be released I believe. Edited January 3, 2022 by fireship4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Erwin Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Thank you for the interesting article. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Redwolf Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 13 hours ago, fireship4 said: [Edit: Thanks for the article.] I have seen Germany criticised for the pipeline - giving Russia leverage over Europe. I always wondered if it was more about trying to stabilise the Russo-European relationship by making them reliant on each other. Am I wrong? Is it more to do with just needing the gas, not wanting nuclear power or what? [Edit 2: I also heard it might just be corruption on the German side... with a guy who works for Gazprom. Surely if that's true though it couldn't be the only factor.] [Edit 3: Part 1: https://www.aei.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/Strategic-Misdirection-An-Alternate-Framework-for-Understanding-Russia’s-Play-in-Ukraine.pdf?x91208 Part three is yet to be released I believe. Well, Germany already uses Russian gas. It is just coming through third party countries (*) which charge for passage. Money is definitely involved in the pipeline project. (*) including Ukraine, who need that money Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sgt.Squarehead Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 It seems that things may be calming down: https://www.defenseone.com/threats/2022/01/the-d-brief-january-25-2022/361139/ Ukraine have a bunch of shiny new antitank toys and apparently they want to keep the gas flowing too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phantom Captain Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 (edited) On 1/25/2022 at 8:25 PM, Sgt.Squarehead said: It seems that things may be calming down: https://www.defenseone.com/threats/2022/01/the-d-brief-january-25-2022/361139/ Ukraine have a bunch of shiny new antitank toys and apparently they want to keep the gas flowing too. Was very happy to see this too! Here's to hoping our little favorite modern warfare game remains fictional! (Well, for the most part...you know what I mean. ) Edited January 27, 2022 by Phantom Captain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chibot Mk IX Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Yes, good to hear things are cooling down. No one wants war, but the tension in the air, sometime can be beneficial to countries that face the threat of internal struggle. Sometime it can even be even profitable. Maybe the leaders from both side were conspiracy together to use this crisis to short selling global stock market Here is another reason why I think at this moment the war will not break out , quote from Putin back in 2019 Quote But when he was asked at the conference on Friday if he would take sides in the trade war between the United States and China, Mr. Putin said he was citing a Chinese proverb that “when tigers fight in the valley, the smart monkey sits aside and waits to see who wins.” Putin is a smart guy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sgt.Squarehead Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Zelenskyy seems to have finally woken up to what's going on around him: https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-tries-ease-fears-russian-invasion-130000-troops-amass-border-1673993 I hope he can regain control of the situation in his country and enter into meaningful dialogue with Russia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phantom Captain Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 35 minutes ago, Sgt.Squarehead said: Zelenskyy seems to have finally woken up to what's going on around him: https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-tries-ease-fears-russian-invasion-130000-troops-amass-border-1673993 I hope he can regain control of the situation in his country and enter into meaningful dialogue with Russia. They've been trying. "Meaningful" apparently is very subjective. I'm reading Russian troops are flooding into Belarus now too with that autocratic jerk in charge. Things look up and then they look down. The Ukrainians are very impressive in their stoicism and bravery though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sgt.Squarehead Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Al Jazeera seem to be presenting a reasonably balanced take on the situation: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/1/28/russian-fm-says-moscow-does-not-want-war-with-ukraine-liveblog Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Looks like either authorities just don't want to make panic moods among population and show feign imperturbability or Zelensky to the last minute will keep a hope that this is just a bluff of Kremlin, that will end soon and he at last can "see in Putin's eyes", during direct negotiations. On our TV the all - president, representatives of president's administyration, minister of defense, all they make a calming statements - there will not be a war, keep calm and prepare to May barbeсue. And on the other hand allies sent cargo planes with a weapon one by one and warn Ukraine about worst scenario is becoming more and more probable day by day. Even Sullivan, loyal to Russia, said "I think Russia don't wan't a war, but puts a pistol on the table". On this background today's plea of Zelensky to allies don't feed the panic, which negatively reflects on Ukrainian economy and his dispute with Biden during the call about possibility of Russian invasion remind me this meme 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 (edited) 5 hours ago, Chibot Mk IX said: Putin is a smart guy. Don't forget, this smart guy told about "Ukraine historically is our land, which artifically was seceded by Lenin and bolsheviks". Also this smart guy said this "Why do we need such world, where will not be a place for Russia?" and about hypotetical nuclear war: "We will go to the paradise like martyrs, and they [USA&NATO] just will croak, because even will not have a time to repent". We have a deal with irrational crazy man. Edited January 28, 2022 by Haiduk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phantom Captain Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 50 minutes ago, Haiduk said: Don't forget, this smart guy told about "Ukraine historically is our land, which artifically was seceded by Lenin and bolsheviks". Also this smart guy said this "Why do we need such world, where will not be a place for Russia?" and about hypotetical nuclear war: "We will go the to paradise like martyrs, and they [USA&NATO] just will croak, because even will not have a time to repent". We have a deal with irrational crazy man. Yeah. Not a fan of that guy at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Russia's military buildup near Ukraine has expanded to include supplies of blood along with other medical materials that would allow it to treat casualties, in yet another key indicator of Moscow's military readiness, three U.S. officials tell Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/exclusive-russia-moves-blood-supplies-near-ukraine-adding-us-concern-officials-2022-01-28/ 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sgt.Squarehead Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 (edited) 4 hours ago, Haiduk said: Russia's military buildup near Ukraine has expanded to include supplies of blood along with other medical materials that would allow it to treat casualties, in yet another key indicator of Moscow's military readiness, three U.S. officials tell Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/exclusive-russia-moves-blood-supplies-near-ukraine-adding-us-concern-officials-2022-01-28/ More from the article: 6 hours ago, Sgt.Squarehead said: The disclosure of the blood supplies by U.S. officials, speaking on condition of anonymity, adds another piece of context to growing U.S. warnings that Russia could be preparing for a new invasion of Ukraine as it masses more than 100,000 troops near its borders. Maybe Ukraine should try doing some thinking for itself. Seems to me like the west (& especially their media) are fully ready to fight Russia, right down to the last Ukrainian. Edited January 29, 2022 by Sgt.Squarehead 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sgt.Squarehead Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 Apparently a coup is suddenly on the cards: https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-russia-tensions-fully-fledged-russian-invasion-could-include-cyber-attacks-and-a-coup-nato-warns-12527348 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fireship4 Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 1 hour ago, Sgt.Squarehead said: Apparently a coup is suddenly on the cards: Nothing sudden about it, has been warned about all the way through, and did not begin with this president. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chuckdyke Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 Franco approached Madrid with four columns and claimed he had a fifth inside. There is nothing new. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 (edited) 9 hours ago, Sgt.Squarehead said: Apparently a coup is suddenly on the cards: Putin is not military, he is former KGBist, so, first of all he tries to achieve own goals in indirect ways. It's ridiculous, Russian authorities on TV-shows talk about "USA and NATO want to grab our reach resourses", about "alien western mentality", "spiritualess thinful Western lifestyle", teach own citizenship about patriotism and suggest militaristic moods because "Russia in a circle of enemies", "NATO at the gate", but... Russian elites, including Putin, have billoins in western banks and huge amount of luxury real estate in "enemy western world". Many Russian top-officials have citizenship of EU, UK or USA. Their children study there or already have own business. This is main safety catch for open large scale invasion. For now. Edited January 29, 2022 by Haiduk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chuckdyke Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 10 minutes ago, Haiduk said: Putin is not military, he is former KGBist, Please read this article and say what you think about it. According to the article KGB is military. KGB | Military Wiki | Fandom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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