Haiduk Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 44 minutes ago, chuckdyke said: Please read this article and say what you think about it. According to the article KGB is military. KGB | Military Wiki | Fandom "Military" in a sense of "army man". I think, you will agree that methods of state security services are different from the methods of armed forces. If Shoigu or Kadyrov were on place of Putin, I think, Russia would have more agressive and straightforward policy than now. So, Putin likes to use indirect methods - establishing of influence institutes and agents if influence inside countries, bribing elites and politics, support of Russian and pro-Russian medias broadcasting, culture expansion, creating of conditions of dependense from Russian business or energy monopolies etc. The open war is extreme method for Putin and he can resort it if other "soft force" methods already will not work to keep own positions. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sgt.Squarehead Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 (edited) 3 hours ago, Haiduk said: Russian elites, including Putin, have billoins in western banks and huge amount of luxury real estate in "enemy western world". Many Russian top-officials have citizenship of EU, UK or USA. Their children study there or already have own business. This is main safety catch for open large scale invasion. For now. Strongly suggests that they have no real desire for confrontation, doesn't it? Also suggests that 'Elites will be Elites' no matter what flags they fly. Edited January 29, 2022 by Sgt.Squarehead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Redwolf Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 This buildup seems to have a lot of logistics units (aka trucks), sustain-enabling material you don't need on exercises, and now the blood banks. Very expensive if you don't plan to use it. I rate the chance of an actual attack as quite high by the standards of such crisis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chuckdyke Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 8 hours ago, Haiduk said: Military" in a sense of "army man" Military, is army, air force, navy. The KGB was the intel and strategic 'arm'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hacketäuer Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 4 hours ago, Redwolf said: This buildup seems to have a lot of logistics units (aka trucks), sustain-enabling material you don't need on exercises, and now the blood banks. Very expensive if you don't plan to use it. I rate the chance of an actual attack as quite high by the standards of such crisis. Yes, but maybe that is exactly what Putin wants us to think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fireship4 Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 21 minutes ago, chuckdyke said: Military, is army, air force, navy. The KGB was the intel and strategic 'arm'. Military is not army, air force, navy. The KGB was not the intel and strategic 'arm'. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chuckdyke Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 2 hours ago, fireship4 said: Military You don't have to look further than a dictionary. Military Definition & Meaning - Merriam-Webster One quick search and you find a uniform. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fireship4 Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 If you look under fruit in the dictionary you may find a picture of a banana. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chuckdyke Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 (edited) 5 minutes ago, fireship4 said: If you look under fruit in the dictionary you may find a picture of a banana. We need a reader of Cyrillic script, I think what is written on his shoulder epaulets of this military uniform by its appearance means KGB. I am kind of lost what fruit has to do with this. What else of your silly response Military is not army, air force, navy. You won't receive anymore answers I put you on my ignore list. Edited January 30, 2022 by chuckdyke Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fireship4 Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 It is best not to bog down this thread with our disagreement. You made two statements that are incorrect (to be clear, the first is too narrow a definition, the second is simply wrong), and later justified the former (perhaps assuming I was saying that military did not include your examples, when I was instead refuting them as a definition of such) with a link to an online dictionary, which is a tool and not the source of meaning of the words in the English language. You finally posted a picture of a uniform I assume you found when searching for the word military, again perhaps presuming I think the word military does not cover uniformed personnel. The fruit example was illustrative of the latter statement. If you wish to continue this discussion perhaps we can do so over PM, with the understanding that I would rather die of gangrene. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 (edited) 7 hours ago, chuckdyke said: You don't have to look further than a dictionary. Military Definition & Meaning - Merriam-Webster One quick search and you find a uniform This is uniform of border guard troops, which was subordinated to KGB. But Putin didn't patrol the border with a dog ) Edited January 30, 2022 by Haiduk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chuckdyke Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 38 minutes ago, Haiduk said: But Putin didn't patrol the border with a dog Not worthy of anymore comments, cooks don't drive tanks or dig foxholes but they are still in the army. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gary R Lukas Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 On 1/2/2022 at 12:20 PM, z1812 said: As I recall, there was no expectation of Russia moving into Crimea either. As the article says, the expected areas of interest to the Russians would be those with large ethnically Russian populations such as the Donbas(s). Ahh, A move right out of Hitlers playbook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Redwolf Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 On 1/2/2022 at 12:20 PM, z1812 said: As I recall, there was no expectation of Russia moving into Crimea either. As the article says, the expected areas of interest to the Russians would be those with large ethnically Russian populations such as the Donbas(s). Well, now they have a new area of interest, and that is a land path to Crimea. Also keep the water crisis in Crimea into account. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheVulture Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 It's hard to know what to make of all this. One one hand, this seems like a lot of trouble to go to if Russia isn't planning to invade Ukraine. On the other hand, if Russia was going to invade Ukraine, they've managed to engineer a situation to make it as difficult as possible to do so, by giving Ukraine as much time as possible to prepare, time for NATO to react (whether or not they are actually going to), as much time as possible to send equipment, supplied, training to Ukraine, time for US / Europe to co-ordinate non-military reponses and prepare contingencies for e.g. gas supply issues. It's hard to think of much else they might do to maximise the chance of failure. Either Putin is very confident of success, or the whole point is to *appear* to be about to attack Ukraine, not to actually do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 (edited) Looks like after UK threaten to confiscate all real estate of Russian oligarchs, and US threaten with "killing sanctions", Putin will slow down. He expected "weak democracy" West would be afraid of his "thug style" ultimatums "NATO, take your s...t, get out to the line of 1997. Ukraine is our". Before this he saw only concernings, deep concernings, useless resolutions etc. So he was sure the West will withdaw again in front of his brutal force threat and concess him if not NATO withdrawal from Easterm Europe, but at least Ukraine only. Thanks to UK and USA (though, they have not so tough position like Brits) we have more chances to avoid a war in nearest time. And one reason, which can really turn away Russia from the invasion is not 2000 NLAWs and Javelins, but a threat to Russian elite $billions and property in western countries. But on the other hand this is heavy blow to the image of Putin inside Russia. The cost of neo-empire ambitions - 10 billions $ for troops moving (and the same sum to move them back), full fiasco with own demands, threat of sanctions, threat to elites fortune, strengthening of UKR army, confirming of NATO perspective of Ukraine and probably new military axis UK-Poland-Ukraine, which can be signed tomorrow in Kyiv. Good job, Putin! What we can expect? Main reason of conflict will exist further - and this is our existance like pro-western democracy state outside of Russian influence. State-formig conception for plebs of "Holy Russian world of trinity Russian nation, withstanding with thinful West" is dead without Ukraine. And because of this the war is a question of time. Edited January 31, 2022 by Haiduk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Erwin Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 The reason one can be 99% confident that the "crisis" is manufactured and will blow over is that Russia cannot afford to lose the 9.5 billion Euro Nordstream II plus the massive income Russia will receive from gas sales and ditto neither can the European corporations and investors who invested close to 5 billion Euros into it. (The other 5 billion came from Russia.) In addition, Putin keeps insisting he has no intention of invading Ukraine. No matter what one thinks of leaders like Putin they have to maintain credibility otherwise why would anyone do biz with him at all? Imo it's all a power play with well-connected people "in the know" making vast sums of money from the fluctuations of Russian shares. It also helps distract people from other calamities like govts' incompetent handling of Covid etc. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Redwolf Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 1 hour ago, Erwin said: The reason one can be 99% confident that the "crisis" is manufactured and will blow over is that Russia cannot afford to lose the 9.5 billion Euro Nordstream II plus the massive income Russia will receive from gas sales and ditto neither can the European corporations and investors who invested close to 5 billion Euros into it. (The other 5 billion came from Russia.) Yeah, but in this respect today's situation is not any different from before they took Crimea. If the West wanted credibility they would have to have used those measures in 2014. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
z1812 Posted February 1, 2022 Author Share Posted February 1, 2022 It seems to me it might be an opportunity for Russia to have a clearer idea of where other countries stand in regards to any future Russian incursion into Ukraine. I have no doubt that much is happening that those outside Government and Diplomactic circles are not privy to. Consider the length of time Russian forces have been out in the field. It is cold and damp. That can undermine the efficiency and morale of troops, and can be hard on machinery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chibot Mk IX Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 On 1/28/2022 at 3:51 PM, Haiduk said: Don't forget, this smart guy told about "Ukraine historically is our land, which artifically was seceded by Lenin and bolsheviks". Also this smart guy said this "Why do we need such world, where will not be a place for Russia?" and about hypotetical nuclear war: "We will go to the paradise like martyrs, and they [USA&NATO] just will croak, because even will not have a time to repent". We have a deal with irrational crazy man. Sorry my friend, I am not downplaying Putin's ambition. I just feel a smart guy, an evil smart guy like him will not make a bold move at this moment. An engineered crisis to sow the seeds of chaos, distrust among NATO members, and later trying reap some fruit from negotiate table is one thing. A bold attack while at least some of the NATO members have commit into UKR defense is another thing. He is going to wait, wait for Xi and Biden make their first move in Pacific. Or maybe Modi make some unwise decision in Himalayas before election. With US's resource be fully committed into indo-pacific theater, Putin should have enough room to make a maneuver on UKR front, that's include the a full scale invasion option. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fireship4 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 1 hour ago, Chibot Mk IX said: smart guy Quote During a trade dispute when Russia cut off imports of American chicken drumsticks (known colloquially within Russia as “Bush legs”), Putin in a private conversation with Bush asserted that Americans deliberately sent bad poultry to Russia. “I know you have separate plants for chickens for America and chickens for Russia,” Putin told Bush. Bush was astonished. “Vladimir, you’re wrong.” “My people have told me this is true,” Putin insisted. Quote At another point, Putin defended his control over media in Russia. “Don’t lecture me about the free press,” he said, “not after you fired that reporter.” “Vladimir, are you talking about Dan Rather?” Bush asked. Yes, replied Putin. Rather was in the process of stepping down as anchor of the CBS Evening News after a report accusing Bush of not fulfilling his National Guard service turned out to be based on fraudulent documents. Bush explained to Putin that he had nothing to do with Rather losing his job. “I strongly suggest you not say that in public,” he added. “The American people will think you don’t understand our system.” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fireship4 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Source was: https://foreignpolicy.com/2013/11/06/the-seduction-of-george-w-bush/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
z1812 Posted February 2, 2022 Author Share Posted February 2, 2022 Let's not become sidetracked about Putin and his intellectual ability. Let's stay focused on the Ukraine and the possible repercussions of the current situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fireship4 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 I think whether or not he is a rational actor acting on good intel is relevant, but I have nothing more to say on the matter anyway so everybody wins 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Armorgunner Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 Belorussia faked a crashed drone, and say it was a Urkrainian one. But the picrures they show, shows a Russian Orlan 10. Does Ukraine even have any Orlan 10? @Haiduk maybe have more info? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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