FORECAST SERIES: Putin’s Likely Course of Action in Ukraine

[CHEqTRO]

1 hour ago, dbsapp said:

That's to good to not be published here.

Head of Ukranian delegation to NATO and Member of Parliament Egor Chernev published an article were he underlined the main goals of military hysteria of several last months:

"The United States is conducting one of the largest information special operations in history against Russia. And this we must clearly understand when we hear about the imminent invasion.

 The tasks of this special operation lie on the surface:

 1. Mobilization of NATO countries and restoration of the unity of the North Atlantic Alliance and the West as a whole.

 2. Demonization of the Russian Federation in the world and the creation of a stable toxic species for it.

 3. Infliction of the greatest losses for the economy of the Russian Federation without war.

 4. Stirring up anti-war sentiment in Russia itself.

 5. Demoralization of the Russian military elite due to the public exposure of their secret materials.".

https://www.liga.net/politics/opinion/bez-paniki-proishodit-samaya-masshtabnaya-informatsionnaya-spetsoperatsiya-ssha-v-interesah-mira

Those things are really obvious to everyone who are not influenced by military propaganda, but it's funny that mr.Chernev told openly about it. 

XD I also find the "war hysteria" argument just golden.

First of all, you are going to have to tell me what problem there is with the 1,4 and 5 point, which they are objectively good, and with the 2 and 3 point, you put it as if Rusia has not done that by itself, via moilizing its army towards Ukraine borders, and by cutting gas flow to European countries, which by the way, gets me to my second point

All this war hysteria coming from the USA and NATO, or wherever, could just ****ing be so easily disproven by Russia, as that, hysteria, by just ending its mobilization. Plain and simple. Stop ****ing mobilizing 60 %( that we know) of your army towards Ukraine borders (military occupying Belarus along the way), resume gas flow towards european countries, return the 150+ armada of ships that have assembled in the Black Sea back towards their original ports, stop with the diplomatic play against NATO and the EU, stop trying to fragment both alliances, and in general stop with all the war proping propaganda against Ukraine (I cannot find it, but I saw a tweet some hours ago one of the principal RT journalist fake crying about the necessity of invading Ukraine because they are about to start setting up concentration camps and gas russians for **** sake, if I find it, I will edit it here. EDIT: https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1492973389971173382, here it is. Being fair its just a screeenshot so we would have to trust the tweeter about what she was really talking)

.If they do that, and just like that; the war hysteria loses all of its strenght, and then they can show the world how wrong the Americans, and all of the people who thought that war was coming, were, and avoid such unfair losses towards their image and their economy. Easy peasy. Until then, there is nothing hysterical about the reaction.

 

Edited February 14, 2022 by CHEqTRO

[Sgt.Squarehead]

1 hour ago, CHEqTRO said:

by cutting gas flow to European countries

Evidence?

[CHEqTRO]

1 hour ago, Sgt.Squarehead said:

Evidence?

https://mobile.twitter.com/Liveuamap/status/1473692008044716033

https://mobile.twitter.com/Liveuamap/status/1488804292106592257

https://mobile.twitter.com/Liveuamap/status/1483033422914326528

https://twitter.com/Liveuamap/status/1491407633370259459

https://twitter.com/Liveuamap/status/1482042466173919236

This is just some of the news that I found in just one particular account about gas flow in the last months. There are a lot more out there and of differents accounts, but I just dont have the time to search for more of them.

[Haiduk]

T-80U of 1st Guard tank army, which several weeks had been deployed in fields near Maslovka, Voronezh oblast in 260 km from the border, were moved by railway in previous two days through Belgorod to Vesiolaya Lopan' in 15 km from Ukrainain border. This is Kharkiv direction

Unvisible phenomenon before - whole squadron of old An-2 biplanes in Russian sky (and this is not a single video). Probably they will use experience of Azerbaidzhan to use them like unmanned drones to uncover Ukraniain air defense or wasting their ammunitin on these false targets

 

Edited February 14, 2022 by Haiduk

[dbsapp]

3 hours ago, Sgt.Squarehead said:

Evidence?

 

1 hour ago, CHEqTRO said:

https://mobile.twitter.com/Liveuamap/status/1473692008044716033

https://mobile.twitter.com/Liveuamap/status/1488804292106592257

https://mobile.twitter.com/Liveuamap/status/1483033422914326528

https://twitter.com/Liveuamap/status/1491407633370259459

https://twitter.com/Liveuamap/status/1482042466173919236

This is just some of the news that I found in just one particular account about gas flow in the last months. There are a lot more out there and of differents accounts, but I just dont have the time to search for more of them.

In fact in 2021 Russia increased gas supply to Europe. 

In January-November 2021 Russia increased exports to Europe to 171.5 billion cubic meters, which is 6.6% (10.6 billion cubic meters) more than in the same period of 2020.

In particular, the company increased gas supplies to Turkey (by 83.7%), Germany (by 16.8%), Italy (by 19.5%), Romania (by 221.8%), Serbia (by 85.8%). %), Bulgaria (by 43.8%), Poland (by 7.5%), Greece (by 12.2%), Slovenia (by 53.9%), Finland (by 9.1%).

The 2021 result was ranked fourth among Gazprom historical records. 15 countries have increased their purchases of Russian pipeline gas. 

In January export dropped.

The long term contracts with European countries are fulfilled 100%. Russia fulfills all of her contract obligations.

The main cause of decrease was the spot contracts, e.g. those that conducted on market daily, to which Gazprom has no obligations. 

https://www.gazprom.ru/press/news/2021/december/article543987/

https://www.gazprom.ru/press/news/2021/november/article542728/

https://www.interfax.ru/business/813725

[dbsapp]

4 hours ago, CHEqTRO said:

All this war hysteria coming from the USA and NATO, or wherever, could just ****ing be so easily disproven by Russia, as that, hysteria, by just ending its mobilization. Plain and simple. Stop ****ing mobilizing 60 %( that we know) of your army towards Ukraine borders

There is no mobilization in Russia. And no mobilization in Ukraine. 

[Haiduk]

39 minutes ago, dbsapp said:

There is no mobilization in Russia. And no mobilization in Ukraine. 

And how, did Russia in previuos years also put ultimatums to USA and NATO on background of maneuvers? Did Russia threaten Ukraine with "consequenses" if we do not agree on Russian conditions around Donbas? Did Russia claim that Ukraine prepares large-scale operation on Donbas? Maybe all these years Putin was preparing to "final showdown" with huge maneuvers. Because this is not too easy to move such numer of trops, maintain logistic, control etc. And now he decided all prepared and he can challenge the West and Ukraine with own bluff. But nobody scared in that time. Maybe not big war, but something must happen. 

Today Kadyrov, the president of Chechnua, appealed to Zelenskiy, naming his "clown" and demanded "to execute Minsk agreements to avoid of bloodshed". Also I can recall words of Piotr Tolstoy, vice-spaeker of Duma, which he said 13th Jan: "Modern Russia have to be expanded to the borders of Russian Empire"  and his words for October on TV-show: "There is no any Ukarine! Luhansk and Donetsk already Russian! And all Ukraine will a part of Russia - there will be no any Ukraine!"

And here typical evening on Russian TV-show. Propagandists divide Ukraine in own drerams again and again 

Edited February 14, 2022 by Haiduk

[dbsapp]

42 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

And how, did Russia in previuos years also put ultimatums to USA and NATO on background of maneuvers? Did Russia threaten Ukraine with "consequenses" if we do not agree on Russian conditions around Donbas? Did Russia claim that Ukraine prepares large-scale operation on Donbas? Maybe all these years Putin was preparing to "final showdown" with huge maneuvers. Because this is not too easy to move such numer of trops, maintain logistic, control etc. And now he decided all prepared and he can challenge the West and Ukraine with own bluff. But nobody scared in that time. Maybe not big war, but something must happen. 

Russia didn't make any ultimatums to US, NATO or Ukraine. If you are aware of one, please share a link.

What I'm aware of is that in 2015 Ukraine signed Minsk agreements, but Kiev refused to fulfill it to the present day.  

As for Ukraine large scale operation in Donbass it is, unfortunately, quite possible. 

In my opinion, there are 2 possible outcomes of present day crisis:

1) Good one. Nothing happens. After several month of war hysteria and military propaganda the US will claim that it prevented the war and Joe will get his Peace Nobel Prize.

2) Bad one. Ukraine will launch large scale assault in Donbass and if Russia tries to meddle all Western media will cry about "Russian aggression against aspiring democracy". 

Concerning TV shows. As far as I know, young Ukrainian democracy has shut down several Ukrainian TV stations lately, since they were in opposition to Kiev policy. 

https://www.ft.com/content/176c0332-b927-465d-9eac-3b2d7eb9706a

https://tass.com/world/1382559 

[Phantom Captain]

[Haiduk]

44 minutes ago, dbsapp said:

Russia didn't make any ultimatums to US, NATO or Ukraine. If you are aware of one, please share a link.

Ahaha! We are discussing this already five pages. But I can repeat for you. Ultimatim for West - USA must withdraw all troops and military infrastructure from NATO countries, which joined after 1997, no membership for Ukraine and Georgia, security guaranties - else "military&technical counter-measures".

For Ukraine and West (Zakharova several days ago): "de-escalation is possible, if NATO stop support, weapon supply and training of Ukrainan army, if NATO withdraw all servicemen from Ukraine, if NATO take bake all wepon, recently delivered for Ukrainian army.     https://ria.ru/20220209/deeskalatsiya-1771925278.html

About TV. There is a difference between opposition TV and TV as propaganda weapon in hybride war, controlled by Russia. If these TV channels continuosly provide Russian propaganda narratives about "civil war", dividing of Ukraine, when showmens and guests allow themeselve  to pour mud on own country, language, culture, these channels must be closed. This is already not about free speech, especially in conditions of undeclared war.    

And my forecast. Nothing happenes. Russian Duma passes tomorrow a law about recognition of LNR/DNR. Russian TV trumpets about Putin saved Donbas and defeated everyone, part of troops go home, part remained near thge borders until next time, when Putin will demand from us something else.  

Edited February 14, 2022 by Haiduk

[dbsapp]

3 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Ahaha! We are discussing this already five pages. But I can repaat for you. Ultimatim for West - USA must withdraw all troops and military infrastructure from NATO countries, which joined after 1997, no membership for Ukraine and Georgia, security guaranties - else "military&technical counter-measures".

That's not "ultimatum" of course, no matter how many time you call it so. It's a mere discussion of security guarantees and propositions that Moscow made. There is no time limit, and there is no clause "if you don't make A we will make B". 

6 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

For Ukraine and West (Zakharova several days ago): "de-escalation is possible, if NATO stop support, weapon supply and training of Ukrainan army, if NATO withdraw all servicemen from Ukraine, if NATO take bake all wepon, recently delivered for Ukrainian army. 

The full quote: "We are convinced that it is possible to achieve a de-escalation of the situation around Ukraine, which our Western partners talk and write about so much, can be achieved very quickly. To do this, we need to stop deliveries of weapons to Ukraine, recall Western military advisers, instructors from its territory, stop joint exercises of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and countries NATO, as well as to remove all foreign weapons previously delivered to Kiev outside Ukrainian territory". 

It's hard to disagree with her. Above mentioned measures will certainly make contribution to de-escalation and pacification of the region. Once again, it's not a  demand, not an ultimatum, it's an innocent observation that is absolutely correct. 

10 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

these TV channels continuosly provide Russian propaganda narratives about "civil war", dividing of Ukraine, when showmens and guests allow themeselve  to pour mud on own country, language, culture, these channels must be closed.

That is brilliant and it's better to leave as it is and not to comment. 

[akd]

20 minutes ago, dbsapp said:

we will make B". 

Amassing an invasion force on the border of another country is “we will make B.”

EDIT: and now they are moving out of assembly areas into attack positions, very diplomatically no doubt.

Edited February 14, 2022 by akd

[dbsapp]

21 minutes ago, akd said:

Amassing an invasion force on the border of another country is “we will make B.”

EDIT: and now they are moving out of assembly areas into attack positions, very diplomatically no doubt.

There are confusing reports on numbers of troops and equipment. Most of the alarmist reports originates in the Western press, that, as I suppose, doesn't have direct access to Russian General Stuff data, but mainly take it from "talking points" of their CIA handlers  "governmental sources".

If the "amassing troops on the border of another country" is so scary and alarming, what Russia should think of NATO enlargement? 

Edited February 14, 2022 by dbsapp

[Haiduk]

29 minutes ago, dbsapp said:

pacification of the region

Pacification? Ahaha! An armed bandit robs you and threaten to shot you to the death if you want to turn back own property, and more, after that warns you "even don't think to buy a gun or call to police"

Edited February 14, 2022 by Haiduk

[CHEqTRO]

3 hours ago, dbsapp said:

 

In January-November 2021 Russia increased exports to Europe to 171.5 billion cubic meters, which is 6.6% (10.6 billion cubic meters) more than in the same period of 2020.

In particular, the company increased gas supplies to Turkey (by 83.7%), Germany (by 16.8%), Italy (by 19.5%), Romania (by 221.8%), Serbia (by 85.8%). %), Bulgaria (by 43.8%), Poland (by 7.5%), Greece (by 12.2%), Slovenia (by 53.9%), Finland (by 9.1%).

The 2021 result was ranked fourth among Gazprom historical records. 15 countries have increased their purchases of Russian pipeline gas. 

 

Okay lets go one by one. First of all, isnt this all pre-November 2021? So esentially before the beginning of the "crisis"? How is that relevant? I would like to know how much gas was supplied from December till now, and how it compares to gas flow in previous years during these winter months. I know by a fact that gas reserves are unusually low, and that was after an emergency supply of LNG of the USA, which was reggistered in a marine traffic, so the numbers deffinitively dont add up. I will look up spenditure of western countries to compare, just in case there has been an unusual higher use of gas, but I doubt it

2 hours ago, dbsapp said:

There is no mobilization in Russia. And no mobilization in Ukraine. 

XDD Okay, you cannot be serious, right? https://twitter.com/RALee85 There are hundreds of both ground videos and satellite images showing Russian mobilization and its scope. This is just one of the accounts which sum up and compiles all of the media available. Go take a look and you tell me if there is no mobilization. I mean, just ****ing look at this:

https://twitter.com/COUPSURE/status/1492983544909545486

https://twitter.com/KaptainLOMA/status/1492812101961846789

 

https://twitter.com/DragonLadyU2/status/1493186330288918531

(This is just an example, add so movement of helicopters and planes towards Ukraine, airlift towards the border, mobilization of Rosguardia, etc..., you can find more in the shared profile)

1 hour ago, dbsapp said:

1) Good one. Nothing happens. After several month of war hysteria and military propaganda the US will claim that it prevented the war and Joe will get his Peace Nobel Prize.

2) Bad one. Ukraine will launch large scale assault in Donbass and if Russia tries to meddle all Western media will cry about "Russian aggression against aspiring democracy". 

 

XDDDDDDDDDDDDD. This just takes the cake honestly. First of all, I would like to know what you would consider as a an Ukranian large assault into the Donbass. It implies an actual full scale offensive by the Ukranian army, or just some bombardment of military positions/use of drones?. In the first case, Darwin awards would go to the Ukranian leadership honestly, consediring the gigantic military blunder that they have just comitted. If there was any benefit in case of full scale invasion  I could see it happening as a preemptive attack, but what would the Ukranian army achieve by getting the Donbass, apart from getting itself encircled as the Russian army attacks via Kharkiv and Kherson?.

Then there is the "possibility" of a """"""bombardment""""""" against a military post or civilians. In that case, the russian high command should really, really thank the Ukranians because of their consideration. They could have made such an attack any moment, like for example, when there wasnt such a naval concentration in the Black sea (Russian ships crossed the bosphorus around the 8-9 of Febraury), or when the russians were starting its mobilization and just had like 60 BTG in its borders. But no, they decided to do it, just when the russian army had fully deployed. Extremely nice of them, really. 

40 minutes ago, dbsapp said:

It's hard to disagree with her. Above mentioned measures will certainly make contribution to de-escalation and pacification of the region. Once again, it's not a  demand, not an ultimatum, it's an innocent observation that is absolutely correct. 

Nah not really. All the contrary, really, as it raises the cost of a Russian invasion. The old roman catchphrase, "si vis pacem, parabellum"

 

Edited February 14, 2022 by CHEqTRO

[akd]

7 minutes ago, dbsapp said:

There are confusing reports on numbers of troops and equipment. Most of the alarmist reports originates in the Western press, that, as I suppose, doesn't have direct access to Russian General Stuff data, but mainly take it from "talking points" of their CIA handlers  "governmental sources".

If the "amassing troops on the border of another country" is so scary and alarming, what Russia should think of NATO enlargement? 

Because NATO does not, and has not ever, amassed an invasion-postured force on Russia’s border.  The standard that neighbors must be incapable of self-defense for Russia to feel secure is absurd.

Edited February 14, 2022 by akd

[dbsapp]

1 minute ago, akd said:

Because NATO does not, and has not ever, amassed an invasion-postured force on Russia’s border.  The standard that neighbors must be incapable of self-defense for Russia to feel secure is absurd.

The danger of NATO enlargement is not in "hundreds of thousands of amassed" troops, but in nukes, settled on the territories of host countries. 

Besides, all the national armies of NATO countries should be counted as NATO troops, not only those that came from US. 

[Haiduk]

Another "alarmist report" - Chechen SOBR unit "Terek", subordinated personaly to Kadyrov, spotted in Valuyki, 10 km from the border, Kharkiv direction

https://theins.ru/news/248536

 

  

[akd]

10 minutes ago, dbsapp said:

The danger of NATO enlargement is not in "hundreds of thousands of amassed" troops, but in nukes, settled on the territories of host countries. 

US / NATO has already said they are willing to discuss strategic / offensive weapons basing, but they are not willing to trade away sovereignty of other nations and violate NATO charter.

10 minutes ago, dbsapp said:

Besides, all the national armies of NATO countries should be counted as NATO troops, not only those that came from US. 

That’s not how NATO works.  If Ukraine wants to drive on Moscow with its massive, terrifying armies (because I guess nuclear weapons don’t exist in this scenario for some reason?), then it would do so alone.  There is no “NATO army” unless collective defense is invoked, and even that comes with a bunch of caveats.

Edited February 14, 2022 by akd

[dbsapp]

9 minutes ago, CHEqTRO said:

Okay lets go one by one. First of all, isnt this all pre-November 2021? So esentially before the beginning of the "crisis"? How is that relevant? I would like to know how much gas was supplied from December till now, and how it compares to gas flow in previous years during these winter months. I know by a fact that gas reserves are unusually low, and that was after an emergency supply of LNG of the USA, which was reggistered in a marine traffic, so the numbers deffinitively dont add up. I will look up spenditure of western countries to compare, just in case there has been an unusual higher use of gas, but I doubt it

 

I already tried to explain to you that there are essential 2 main methods of selling gas from Russia to Europe. 

First, there are long term contracts. All of them are fulfilled 100%. 

Second, spot market. Basically, its a daily buy-sell process. Russia doesn't have any obligations to sell gas to Europe that had not been contracted. 

Let's make an example. If you have something, and I want to buy it, there is no obligation on your side to sell it to me.

The topic of "Russia is not selling EU gas" was popular all around 2021 when energy crisis broke out. But as data shows, Russia increased gas supply during this period. 

[dbsapp]

3 minutes ago, akd said:

US / NATO has already said they are willing to discuss strategic / offensive weapons basing, but they are not willing to trade away sovereignty of other nations and violate NATO charter.

 

That's great that they are willing to discuss something, I guess, that should be the reason for celebration. The bad thing it doesn't mean anything and doesn't presuppose any obligations on their side.

5 minutes ago, akd said:

That’s not how NATO works.  If Ukraine wants to drive on Moscow with its massive, terrifying armies (because I guess nuclear weapons don’t exist in this scenario for some reason?), then it would do so alone.  There is no NATO army unless collective defense is invoked, and even that comes with a bunch of caveats.

First of all, of course, it's not Ukraine itself that Moscow is nervous about. Ukraine is no more than a tool to harass Russia and to deploy  nukes.

Second, real life is much more complicated than any documents. 

All the documents, including NATO charter, are subject to interpretation by politicians and media. Who can guarantee that in the event of Ukrainian provocation the Ukrainian actions wouldn't be interpreted as "Russian aggression" (for example, because US President wouldn't like to look weak in the wake of elections)? Do you wanna try it? I doubt it. 

 

[danfrodo]

DBSAPP:  Yes, Ukraine, backed by NATO, is going to attack Russia.  Do you even hear yourself?  I've been avoiding this but that is so F-ing stupid it's unbelievable.  How can there be 'discussion' when someone lives in a fantasy world?  Are you so brainwashed that you think Ukraine is going to attack Russia -- it's suicide!   How can that make sense to anyone?

What other fun, totally ridiculous conspiracy nonsense do you have?  This one has gotten kinda stale and I am looking for some entertainment.

[Haiduk]

39 minutes ago, dbsapp said:

Ukraine is no more than a tool to harass Russia and to deploy  nukes.

And how much nukes were deployed in Baltic countries, bordering with Russia throughout years of their NATO membership? 

[Phantom Captain]

3 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

And how much nukes were deployed in Baltic countries, bordering with Russia throughout years of their NATO membership? 

Exactly. 

[dbsapp]

3 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

DBSAPP:  Yes, Ukraine, backed by NATO, is going to attack Russia.  Do you even hear yourself?  I've been avoiding this but that is so F-ing stupid it's unbelievable.  How can there be 'discussion' when someone lives in a fantasy world?  Are you so brainwashed that you think Ukraine is going to attack Russia -- it's suicide!   How can that make sense to anyone?

What other fun, totally ridiculous conspiracy nonsense do you have?  This one has gotten kinda stale and I am looking for some entertainment.

Why not to try to achieve your goals, like reclaiming Crimea, if you have "big brother backing"? 

The first thing that Turkey did after shooting down Russian plane in Syria was calling for extraordinary NATO council.

That is precisely why NATO rules forbid membership of countries with territorial disputes.