FORECAST SERIES: Putin’s Likely Course of Action in Ukraine

[Aragorn2002]

7 hours ago, womble said:

I'm finding some of the US intel announcements interesting. Sometimes, it's almost like they're telling the world and Putin that they have tabs on the agents-provocateurs who were intending false flag provocations to give Putin the justification he needs to change from "We have no intention of invading Ukraine." to "Our cousins in Ukraine need protecting from vile Kyiv. How fortunate we've more than 9000 troops just over the border." What they may be able to do with those appreciations, if they're legit, is another matter. Maybe just suggesting to Putin that they have proof which could later be made available would be enough to dissuade him from sending in the "little green men" (or their successors).

Of course, the troops could truly be in place solely for exercises, as Vlad says, and the stories about false flag operations being detected just USAdian flim-flam.

I get the feeling that now the exercises in Belarus have actually begun, any window for converting the troop presences into offensive movements across the Ukraine border has passed. Though that could just be smokescreen. How difficult would it be to turn that sort of wargame into advances along entirely different axes, with very different goals?

Putin has the whole of Europe holding their breath. For him that's already progress in his struggle to restore his country to it's former 'glory'. 

But as said the Russians are chess players. They have more misery in store for us.

[fireship4]

An update to my last post: record of flight with registration VP-BMO has updated to show it taking off at 9.19 from Rostov-on-Don for Baku as Nordwind N41991 (now also AFL2615): https://www.flightradar24.com/data/aircraft/vp-bmo predicted for arrival at 10.52.

To restate, this same registration is recorded as taking off twice from Moscow around 5am, one heading SW to Milan, one heading South to Rostov, both of which disappear, the latter after apparently turning toward Ukraine over Voronesh (recorded here: https://www.flightradar24.com/data/aircraft/vp-bmo#2acda4dc), the former reappearing in Poland and landing in Italy at 8.27.

EDIT: Now planning to also depart from Milan to Moscow.  I don't know how common this kind of registration duplication is, but it's not a good day for it.

 

Edited February 13, 2022 by fireship4

[chuckdyke]

1 hour ago, Aragorn2002 said:

And great Gregorian music, which I happen to like a lot.

Yep, if I remember correctly, they had a Russian Orthodox in Amsterdam. They all hated communism and Stalin.

 

[The_MonkeyKing]

1 hour ago, fireship4 said:

An update to my last post: record of flight with registration VP-BMO has updated to show it taking off at 9.19 from Rostov-on-Don for Baku as Nordwind N41991 (now also AFL2615): https://www.flightradar24.com/data/aircraft/vp-bmo predicted for arrival at 10.52.

To restate, this same registration is recorded as taking off twice from Moscow around 5am, one heading SW to Milan, one heading South to Rostov, both of which disappear, the latter after apparently turning toward Ukraine over Voronesh (recorded here: https://www.flightradar24.com/data/aircraft/vp-bmo#2acda4dc), the former reappearing in Poland and landing in Italy at 8.27.

EDIT: Now planning to also depart from Milan to Moscow.  I don't know how common this kind of registration duplication is, but it's not a good day for it.

 

I have now encountered this in couple of places.

Why is this important /worrying? What would this be a sign of?

[fireship4]

Well, a sudden diversion over eastern Ukraine of a Russian civilian airliner during a time of extreme tension... it looked like they were trying to get shot down.  The fact that the plane was in two places at once suggests the possibility it was not the plane it claimed to be.

Or it was just some kind of mistake, by the airlines or with flightradar24, perhaps a mixing of data due to the duplicated registration number.  A bad time for such a thing to happen.

EDIT: to be clear, the registration of a plane is unique to that plane.  The flight (or whatever) is like a bus route, and seems to be assigned to a plane when it is assigned to a route.

Edited February 13, 2022 by fireship4

[Haiduk]

18 minutes ago, fireship4 said:

Well, a sudden diversion over eastern Ukraine of a Russian civilian airliner during a time of extreme tension... it looked like they were trying to get shot down.  The fact that the plane was in two places at once suggests the possibility it was not the plane it claimed to be.

Or it was just some kind of mistake, by the airlines or with flightradar24, perhaps a mixing of data due to the duplicated registration number.  A bad time for such a thing to happen.

Sometime Flightradar depicts wrong tracks as if Russian airliners are flying through Ukrainain airspace over Donbas, but indeed it's not true.

Intermational insurance companies can stop flights insurance over Ukrainian airspace because of high risk of war, which will cause cancelling of all flights since 14th Feb. Yesterday KLM cancelled all routs to Ukraine. Today the flight of our SkyUp from Madiera to Kyiv was suddenly terminated by demand of plane lessor from Ireland. The plane landed in Moldova and passengers departed to Kyiv buy buses.    

Edited February 13, 2022 by Haiduk

[fireship4]

I think Flightradar indicates when it is predicting a position as opposed to where it has ADS-B, MLAT, etc.  For instance the flight I was looking at had a dashed black line pointing to its destination after it stopped updating.  Did you see this track: https://www.flightradar24.com/data/aircraft/vp-bmo#2acda4dc If that is a mistake by flightradar (not Russia) then it is quite a dangerous one.

EDIT: You can see better info if you use the normal map and select 'playback' at the bottom, using the times I mentioned in my previous posts.  The above flight changes name above Voronesh when it starts to head for Ukraine.

Edited February 13, 2022 by fireship4

[Haiduk]

13 minutes ago, fireship4 said:

I think Flightradar indicates when it is predicting a position as opposed to where it has ADS-B, MLAT, etc.  For instance the flight I was looking at had a dashed black line pointing to its destination after it stopped updating.  Did you see this track: https://www.flightradar24.com/data/aircraft/vp-bmo#2acda4dc If that is a mistake by flightradar (not Russia) then it is quite a dangerous one.

Really strange track. About week ago our InformNapalm OSINT community got information about unclear preparation of unidentified unmanned vessel in Sevastopol and some Russian seals activity near Kerch strait. There was a supposition, that Russian prepared "false flag" attack on Kerch bridge to create Casus Belli. 

[Haiduk]

4 hours ago, Aragorn2002 said:

Putin has the whole of Europe holding their breath. For him that's already progress in his struggle to restore his country to it's former 'glory'. 

But as said the Russians are chess players. They have more misery in store for us.

Andrei Piontkovsky wrote on Friday in own twitter: "Putin will feel like a Lord of the World today. From the morning long gut of Bidens, Schols, Macrons, Popes, Greta Tunbergs will call to him, begging him do not start the war. After such Viagra you can go to Paradise! And elsewhwre just will croak" (he meant Putin's phrase how "Russians, if nuclear war happen, will become martyrs and go to heaven and the enemy of Russia just will croack, because they even will not have a time to repent")

And one more twit of Aaron David Miller about this "Putin has climbed up a tree so high with demands so excessive and a military build-up so threatening, it’s hard to see a diplomatic ladder to climb down. It looks increasingly like a put up or shut up situation with the situation on ground favoring the former"

Putin really "climbed up" too high. By old tradition of USSR he traded fear in exchange for some benefits. But in this time he (and maybe he and Xi together?) rised own bets and demands on the level, completely unacceptable for West and got nothing. To keep own face for Russians, like "the ruler, with whom the world regard" he MUST to do something.

Due to sanctions threat much easy way for him to recognize DPR and LPR "republics". Russian State Duma will consider this project on next week. Recently Russian officials made a statements, that recognition is unwanted now, because will make positions of Russia weaker. But after 8-hours negotiantions in Berlin on 10th Feb, Ukrainian delegation withstood with heavy pressure of Russia, Germany and France and rejected to sign even formal declaration - Russian plans to force Ukarine to take Donbas back on Russian conditions failed again. Thus, their moods can change. Already several weeks Russian TV is pumping the theme of "Ukrainain offensive on Donbas, encouraged by their Western masters". All Russian and Belarusian troops movements explain like a reaction on "agressive intentions of Ukraine".

So, what we can do, when West rejected all demands about guaranties? Full scale war? And to lose all money, villas and palaces in the "hostile West"? Let recognize "independence" of "repuplics", make security agreements with them, will supply them with a weapon officially and in this way we will "save people of Donbas from genocide". Victory!  

Edited February 13, 2022 by Haiduk

[Cpl Steiner]

I am finding it very hard to fathom what exactly is going on re. Russia and Ukraine. The West is saying they have credible intelligence that an invasion is planned. Russia denies this. Negotiations are going on to avoid war but what are these going to look like other than, "Hey Putin, don't invade or else" followed by the reply "Hey Biden, we're not planning to invade so get off your high horse". I don't see how an invasion would benefit Russia. Could the joint Russia-Belarus military exercises just be sabre rattling to try to elicit some sort of guarantee that Ukraine will never join NATO?

Edited February 13, 2022 by Cpl Steiner

[The_MonkeyKing]

15 minutes ago, Cpl Steiner said:

I don't see how an invasion would benefit Russia. Could the joint Russia-Belarus military exercises just be sabre rattling to try to elicit some sort of guarantee that Ukraine will never join NATO?

some good analysis (timestamp 16:30)

in short it is about the cost of inaction for Russia.

[Bufo]

24 minutes ago, Cpl Steiner said:

I don't see how an invasion would benefit Russia.

Did the occupation of Crimea benefit Russia? 

[Haiduk]

Current situation - БТГ means "battalion tactical group, BTG". Russian forces in Transnistria depicted like a brigade, but really have three battalions in 200-300 men each. But they can easily can transform these battalions in full brigade or even more, reinforcing them with Transnistrian units, which personnel have Russian citizenship

 

Edited February 13, 2022 by Haiduk

[fireship4]

So Russia is sticking with BTGs as opposed to normal structure?  Does that suggest something about their strategy?

[iMolestCats]

They have most of their BTGs located along the border with ukraine. Like 80% of them.  Support units from the far east. Almost the entire black sea fleet along with "costal defense units" (amphibious assault force) are now at sea minus two submarines that are under maintenance. Its pretty clear at this point that they will be invading. A country with the GDP the size of italy wont move forces like this as a play unless they actually mean to use them. As to why they are invading? I'd imagine they are taking advantage of the wests current state of foreign policies where in several years it could be a different situation, and lack of a stomach for a conventional conflict by western nations. 

 

Just my 2 cents. Plus the build up over the spring was much smaller than the current forces aligned against Ukraine.

[Sgt.Squarehead]

Ukraine.....It's the new Covid. 

[z1812]

Apparently Zelensky has some doubts about U.S. intelligence.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/world/article-airlines-stopping-redirecting-flights-to-ukraine-as-crisis-brews/

Edited February 14, 2022 by z1812

[IMHO]

12 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Russian forces in Transnistria depicted like a brigade, but really have three battalions in 200-300 men each. But they can easily can transform these battalions in full brigade or even more, reinforcing them with Transnistrian units, which personnel have Russian citizenship

1. Does Transnistria have enough tanks, APCs and IFVs to equip such alleged brigades?
2. Ethnic composition of Transnistria:

• Russians: 29.1%
• Moldovans: 28.6%
• Ukrainians: 22.9%
• Bulgarians: 2.4%
• Gagauz: 1.1%
• Belarusians: 0.5%
• Transnistrians: 0.2%
• Others: 1.4%

[The_MonkeyKing]

At this point only two ways out of this.

1. Ukraine enters negotiations on Russian terms
2. Russian military technical tools are applied until Ukraine enters negotiations on Russian terms

The said Russian terms must be harsh. One main Russian problem sense 2014 has been that Ukraine has ignored most of the agreements it has signed at gunpoint (understandably). This would have to change.

[The_MonkeyKing]

4 hours ago, z1812 said:

Apparently Zelensky has some doubts about U.S. intelligence.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/world/article-airlines-stopping-redirecting-flights-to-ukraine-as-crisis-brews/

This is understandable from Ukraine. It is critically important for Ukraine as a country to stay as stoic as possible. If panic takes over Russia could win this crisis without any significant military operations.

West has taken a new rarely seen tactic by sharing intelligence so widely and in real time. It has costs and benefits. One cost is risk "panic" in Ukraine. This is what Ukraine is trying to mitigate.

If you look at Ukraine actions you can see they are on the same page about the thread with the west.

[chuckdyke]

Show their hand Ukraine is from tomorrow a fully-fledged member of NATO. Here is their weakness, all Members must agree to change the status quo. In other words, a country like Turkey or the Netherlands have the right to veto admittance. The country with the most powerful military does have as much cloud as Luxembourg. This may very well be the Game Putin is playing. 

[Bufo]

7 minutes ago, chuckdyke said:

Show their hand Ukraine is from tomorrow a fully-fledged member of NATO. Here is their weakness, all Members must agree to change the status quo. In other words, a country like Turkey or the Netherlands have the right to veto admittance. The country with the most powerful military does have as much cloud as Luxembourg. This may very well be the Game Putin is playing. 

This is nothing new, Orban (PM of Hungary) have been playing this since years.

Putin visits Hungary often, and also Orban visited Putin not a long time ago.

https://washington.mfa.gov.hu/eng/news/why-is-hungary-blocking-ukraines-nato-accession

Edited February 14, 2022 by Bufo

[chuckdyke]

4 minutes ago, Bufo said:

This is nothing new, Orban (PM of Hungary), the underdog of Putin plays this since years.

Thank you for this interesting article. 

[dbsapp]

That's to good to not be published here.

Head of Ukranian delegation to NATO and Member of Parliament Egor Chernev published an article were he underlined the main goals of military hysteria of several last months:

"The United States is conducting one of the largest information special operations in history against Russia. And this we must clearly understand when we hear about the imminent invasion.

 The tasks of this special operation lie on the surface:

 1. Mobilization of NATO countries and restoration of the unity of the North Atlantic Alliance and the West as a whole.

 2. Demonization of the Russian Federation in the world and the creation of a stable toxic species for it.

 3. Infliction of the greatest losses for the economy of the Russian Federation without war.

 4. Stirring up anti-war sentiment in Russia itself.

 5. Demoralization of the Russian military elite due to the public exposure of their secret materials.".

https://www.liga.net/politics/opinion/bez-paniki-proishodit-samaya-masshtabnaya-informatsionnaya-spetsoperatsiya-ssha-v-interesah-mira

Those things are really obvious to everyone who are not influenced by military propaganda, but it's funny that mr.Chernev told openly about it. 

Edited February 14, 2022 by dbsapp

[Baneman]

1 hour ago, dbsapp said:

 1. Mobilization of NATO countries and restoration of the unity of the North Atlantic Alliance and the West as a whole.

 2. Demonization of the Russian Federation in the world and the creation of a stable toxic species for it.

1. Russia achieved that in 2014. NATO was almost completely moribund when the Crimean invasion took place and galvanised countries.

2. Strange, Putin is supposed to be so smart, yet fell right into their trap. Still, he could take the wind out of their sails by moving troops away from the border. I wonder why he doesn't.