FORECAST SERIES: Putin’s Likely Course of Action in Ukraine

[IMHO]

37 minutes ago, Holien said:

I think he is creating a context to annex more of Ukraine

What for? We've seen US failing in Afghanistan and Iraq and US has immensely more resources than Russia.

37 minutes ago, Holien said:

what you think Putin is trying to achieve

He said it himself. He does not want Ukraine joining NATO. Ukrainian military and political leadership constantly talks about crushing Crimea and L/DNR the way Croats did with Serb Krajina (Operation Storm). Right now Russian forces outmatch Ukrainian so it would be suicidal for the Ukraine to do so. Yet Putin obviously believes that if Ukraine joins NATO then having full support of NATO behind them they will start a war.

Edited February 15, 2022 by IMHO

[chuckdyke]

Alcyoneus: they better read Greek mythology. Heracles had to drag Alcyoneus out of his country to beat him. Countries worth their name are like that. If they go abroad, they very often meet Alcyoneus and will lose their limited wars. It happened in Iraq and Afghanistan. Bush senior had more brains than Bush junior. 
 

[Haiduk]

52 minutes ago, IMHO said:

Ukrainian Su-25 bombs Lugansk on 02.06.2014.

Pure whataboutism. On 2.06 the war had been going already 1,5 of months. Several Ukrainian cities were under control of the enemy. Su-25 in that day had a mission attack SBU building, but mistakingly hit Luhansk Oblast Administration building nearby, using by separs "authorities". Buildings, which used by occupation authorities are legitimate military target. Civilians, which collaborate with occupants or insurgents in this buildings must understand all risks.

[IMHO]

56 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

I was referring to who was the aggressor in starting the conflict

I guess you get your answer

25 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Civilians, which collaborate with occupants or insurgents in this buildings must understand all risks.

@The_MonkeyKing What do you think happen if some hot heads believe they better bomb out their compatriots rather than find a compromise with them and work out their differences politically? I swear to God I truly believed those "Ukrainian extremists" were purely Russian propaganda invention. Yet listen to Haiduk...

PS As a side note I think this whole Crimea-L/DNR thing was a giant tragic mistake for Russia. Russia could have had a Western-oriented yet more or less neutral Ukraine - something like Moldova. And what it has now is a constant threat of a major war, painful economical difficulties and politics in Russia's second biggest neighbour being controlled by war mongering ideologues.

Edited February 15, 2022 by IMHO

[fireship4]

Does anyone know the answer to my earlier question?  Is Russia planning to make use of BTGs in the event of war?  Some time ago it was suggested that in that sort of scenario they would use a more standard structure, the BTGs being used for low intensity conflicts or something like that.

The third part of the report that this thread referenced was released a few weeks ago now: https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Putin’s Likely Course of Action in Ukraine Updated Course of Action Assessment ISW CTP.pdf

[Haiduk]

42 minutes ago, fireship4 said:

Does anyone know the answer to my earlier question?  Is Russia planning to make use of BTGs in the event of war?  Some time ago it was suggested that in that sort of scenario they would use a more standard structure, the BTGs being used for low intensity conflicts or something like that.

I think, in the case of large-scale invasion, Russia will use BTGs, but as a part of brigade/divsion level operations. Also number of BTGs, I suppose, is just more conditional amount of troops like "conditional divisions" in WWII/Cold War calculations. It's hard to say either can Russian brigade or regiment to establish three BTGs from own battalions or only one or two.  

[Haiduk]

2 hours ago, IMHO said:

What do you think happen if some hot heads believe they better bomb out their compatriots rather than find a compromise with them and work out their differences politically?

Since "compatriots" cried "Putin, enter the troops!", "Donbas is Russia!", since they and Russian proxies have attacked our force structures, seized their weapon and later bagan to receive heavy weapons, ammunition, fuel from Russia, since their "people militia" became proxy-forces under command of Russian generals of 12th Reserve Corps, they are no more "compatriots", they are enemies, elements of Russian hybride war. Ukrainain Constitution, like and Constitutions of any country clearly tells what the state must do in case of territorial integrity threats. 

And with whom we should have to negoitiate? With Russian citizen Strelkov, which seized Sloviansk?

Edited February 15, 2022 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

Russian Duma passed a law about recognition of LNR/DNR.

Interesting fact - there were two bills. The one from Communist party, which offers to direct the passed low to Putin for final decision immediately and the other from ruling party "United Russia", which offers to direct the law in first order to MFA, MoD and already later, after those approvals to Putin.

I thought, Duma would vote for second bill, because recently Kremlin issued very moderate reaction on Communists bill and named it "undesirable in current situation". But looks like Putin, having fiasco with own demands to the West and on Normandy 4 negotiantion in Berlin, where Ukraine didn't give up on pressure, laid out last trump card for trading. If Putin approves this law quickly, this just will show his full defeat. But I think he will play for time and blackmail Ukraine "either you accept our terms, or I recognize DNR/LNR, so Minsk will be disrupted and Ukraine never turn back Donbas except war. Do you want make war with nuclear state? Welcome. And pray that I recognize them in current frontline boudaries, and not in administrative boundaries of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts of Ukraine!"

Edited February 15, 2022 by Haiduk

[danfrodo]

Wars are like parachutes.  Easy to jump into a war.  But turns out one can't use the parachute to jump back into a passing plane.  And Putin is smart enough to know how, even w significantly more powerful military forces, things can go wrong in a hurry and can escalate badly and how one can get stuck (ask LBJ).  But Putin wanted to achieve something here.  Was it a test of NATO unity?  Well, he get an answer it looks like. 

Now I think it's important to have discussions that allow Putin to have some face-saving 'victory' while at the same time not actually rewarding him with anything significant for this war-extortion racket he is running.  And we need to make sure he understands this kind of action will always be counterproductive for Russia.  Putin is playing the nationalist hero card and he can't afford to lose face.  Wounded bears get angry and don't forget. 

[DMS]

3 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Since "compatriots" cried "Putin, enter the troops!", "Donbas is Russia!", since they and Russian proxies have attacked our force structures, seized their weapon and later bagan to receive heavy weapons, ammunition, fuel from Russia, since their "people militia" became proxy-forces under command of Russian generals of 12th Reserve Corps, they are no more "compatriots", they are enemies, elements of Russian hybride war.

Sometimes I think that Haiduk is Kremlin's troll, who infiltrated to this forum for anti Ukrainian propaganda.  He must add "but we will correct them in labour camps", but it would be too fat.

Edited February 15, 2022 by DMS

[Haiduk]

31 minutes ago, DMS said:

Sometimes I think that Haiduk is Kremlin's troll, who infiltrated to this forum for anti Ukrainian propaganda.  He must add "but we will correct them in labour camps", but it would be too fat.

Russians so long time have an image of Ukrainians as mild "khokhols", "younger brother of Great Russians" that any tough postition in defending of own country consider like manifestation on nazism, aggression and war crimes. 

Oh, I forgot. How much Russian passports got these "compatriots" in last two years? Especially among "republic authorities". Part of them already are members of "United Russia". If they Russian citizens, with which "compatriots" we should speak?   

Edited February 15, 2022 by Haiduk

[IMHO]

41 minutes ago, DMS said:

Sometimes I think that Haiduk is Kremlin's troll, infiltrated to this forum for anti Ukrainian propaganda.  He must add "but we will correct them in labour camps", but it would be too fat.

The really sorry thing is these are the people who really believe in it. They do believe they are serving a noble cause by cleansing Eastern Ukraine of people who are not "sufficiently Ukrainian". They would prefer an open war over giving up an inch of their beliefs. There's something profoundly wrong about people who think that every inch of an ideology of a kind is more important than people's lives.

49 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

Putin is playing the nationalist hero card and he can't afford to lose face.

No, there will be a sigh of relief in every corner of Russia if a war can be avoided this way or another. Ukraine will probably cease to exist in the current form yet it will be a catastrophe for Russia as well.

49 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

while at the same time not actually rewarding him with anything significant for this war-extortion racket he is running

He believes if Ukraine will continue to grow stronger militarily (through NATO membership or through massive arms transfer) then a war is unavoidable sooner or later. And reading Haiduk I think he has a reason to think so. So all he wants is that Ukraine is not put over the threshold when it can venture to do what Saakashvili did in 2008. I'm far from being a Putin's fan yet to me personally it does not seem a price too high for avoiding tens of thousands deaths from both sides.

3 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Since "compatriots" cried "Putin, enter the troops!", "Donbas is Russia!"

Ukraine recently closed several TV channels and banned a political party that started to acquire significant popularity. The party never cried for Putin to come their only fault was they were considered more predisposed to find SOME accommodation if it ever comes to power. Ukrainian Far Right have a clear idea of what kind of Ukraine they want and they are ready to go any length to make sure it's the only way Ukraine can ever live. They take no prisoner neither with foreign policies nor with their own populace who dare to be less ideologically pure. If need be they are ready to stage a coup and overthrow a democratically elected government.

Edited February 15, 2022 by IMHO

[dbsapp]

3 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Since "compatriots" cried "Putin, enter the troops!", "Donbas is Russia!", since they and Russian proxies have attacked our force structures, seized their weapon and later bagan to receive heavy weapons, ammunition, fuel from Russia, since their "people militia" became proxy-forces under command of Russian generals of 12th Reserve Corps, they are no more "compatriots", they are enemies, elements of Russian hybride war. Ukrainain Constitution, like and Constitutions of any country clearly tells what the state must do in case of territorial integrity threats. 

And with whom we should have to negoitiate? With Russian citizen Strelkov, which seized Sloviansk?

So you don't want bring these people back, but you want this territory which would be clean from them, right? 

[IMHO]

23 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Russians so long time have an image of Ukrainians as mild "khokhols", "younger brother of Great Russians"

Seems there are cases when a visit to a shrink can easily avert a whole war 

23 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

manifestation on nazism

This is a rally in Kiev celebrating SS division Galichina. The picture is not from "Putin's propaganda"  - it's Deutsche Welle

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/14th_Waffen_Grenadier_Division_of_the_SS_(1st_Galician)#Atrocities

Edited February 15, 2022 by IMHO

[dbsapp]

Ukraine President Zelenskiy said in August of 2021:

"I believe that if you live in the temporarily occupied territory of Donbas today and you think that "our way is right," "we are heading to Russia," "we are Russians," then it would be a big mistake to stay in Donbas..."

No wonder they venerate SS. 

[TheVulture]

Seems like the Russian strategy now is to back off from a war for the time being and start banging on about "Ukrainians are all fascist neo-Nazis who are going to kill everyone in Donbass" toi try and shift public opinion. I've seen a sudden splurge of "Ukrainians linked to neo-fascists" articles in a variety of places today.

[dbsapp]

4 minutes ago, TheVulture said:

Seems like the Russian strategy now is to back off from a war for the time being and start banging on about "Ukrainians are all fascist neo-Nazis who are going to kill everyone in Donbass" toi try and shift public opinion. I've seen a sudden splurge of "Ukrainians linked to neo-fascists" articles in a variety of places today.

Those sneaky Russians want to divert our attention from innocent Ukraine SS divisions and righteousness ethnic cleansing plans! Isn't it a despicable whataboutism?

[dbsapp]

[Holien]

My prediction  will no doubt come true, the usual suspects get a decent thread closed with utter bull@hit.

Pathetic 

 

[CHEqTRO]

Okay this is just clownish at this point.

1 hour ago, IMHO said:

Seems there are cases when a visit to a shrink can easily avert a whole war 

This is a rally in Kiev celebrating SS division Galichina. The picture is not from "Putin's propaganda"  - it's Deutsche Welle

I can also put images of Russian soldiers in the Donbass wearing Swastikas and other far right wing stuff  (Example: https://twitter.com/jpereztriana/status/1485703957263667209). And of course I can search for more, not only of Donbass soldiers, but also of United Russia MPs, Orthodox clerics and whatever.

I aswell have images of Ukranian civilians being hit by Russian fire during the hot phase of the war (Not going to, but you should know how easily is to find them, if you want to). Thats the thing with war, that people die. Or do you think that in case of Russian "intervention" to ""save"" the """""free"""" people of the Donbass from """"""""""Genocide""""""""", there would not be Ukranian civilian casualties?

Also, I have been keeping up with declarations from some Russian United Party officials and some are quite delightful. I remember one of some bearded dude claiming that they need to cleanse western Ukranians, among other things. And lets not forget Putin quote, that Ukraine, its beauty; is going to be raped.

The whole argument that the Ukranian goverment is in its way to genocide half of its population its so ****ing laughable that it hurts. If anything, russian speaking people in Ukraine have more political liberties in ****ing Ukraine than in ****ing Russia (Good luck getting anyone else apart from the supreme leader, and oh please for the love of god, do not bring the law to make Ukranian the main languaje of the state as genocide. You will have to explain me then why its not genocide to have the russian language  as the official one in regions as Kalmykia, Karelia, Daguestan, Komi, Yakutia etc...). Holy **** you also claimed that the shut down of television close to the Kremlin was a sign of Ukranian fascistic behaviour, as if Ukranians should accept to have its agressors having a voice in its ****ing country. I mean, you literally wrote that they were accomodating the country in case Putin cames to power in Ukraine XDDDD. Why in God´s Earth any nation should accept that. Also rich that the russians in general talk about genocide considering what its hapening to the tartars in Crimea.

But you know what, the thing is that at the end of the ****ing day, this is all just ****ing stupid whatabouthism. What doesnt change, is still the fact that one nation is actively trying to undermine the sovereignity of another one, has actually occupied territory of said nation, against all international law; and is threathening with further military action, as well as creating a gigantic future loophole for nuclear proliferation (Budapest memorandum, does ring a bell?). Ukraine, as a sovereign nation, has all the right to decide its allies and economic partners, and there is no moral neither legal justification for Russia to alter this decision. That its the main issue behind this crisis, and what this thread is about. So yeah, stop muddling and derailing the discussion with ****ing propaganda, half-thruts and ****ing whatabouthism, because at this point its close to just a pathetic echo chamber.

 

 

 PS: Also, the thing with democracies, is that people have the freedom to say or manifest whatever they like. Story time: Here in Spain some months ago some weirdos of the Falange party wnet and took the main street of Madrid to talk about the threat of the "Jews" and all that stupidity. There was a gigantic backlash in the media and wathever. At the end they were like 500 randoms at best which hardly represented even a fraction of our society, but they there were, the spotlight of our media for like a week, parroting their ****ty ideas in one of the main streets of our capital. There are also still a lot of people who venerate Franco, and he still has some cultural places dedicated to his image and regime. Despite all of this, I think that consider my nation as an authoritarian genocidal fascistic hellhole would be quite unreasonable, in any circles away from ignorants and ideologues, of course). I do also wonder. Considering what you are all saying, does the people of Spain deserve destruction and subjugation to a foreign power? Do I, and my family deserve that? If you find that prepostorous, as you ****ing should, then you should start looking back into your argument, because esentially you are claiming that Ukranians do, under a very similar situation)

 

 

Edited February 15, 2022 by CHEqTRO

[dbsapp]

5 minutes ago, Holien said:

usual suspects

6 minutes ago, CHEqTRO said:

Okay this is just clownish at this point.

I can also put images of Russian soldiers in the Donbass wearing Swastikas and other far right wing stuff  (Example: https://twitter.com/jpereztriana/status/1485703957263667209). And of course I can search for more, not only of Donbass soldiers, but also of United Russia MPs, Orthodox clerics and whatever.

I aswell have images of Ukranian civilians being hit by Russian fire during the hot phase of the war (Not going to, but you should know how easily is to find them, if you want to). Thats the thing with war, that people die. Or do you think that in case of Russian "intervention" to ""save"" the """""free"""" people of the Donbass from """"""""""Genocide""""""""", there would not be Ukranian civilian casualties?

Also, I have been keeping up with declarations from some Russian United Party officials and some are quite delightful. I remember one of some bearded dude claiming that they need to cleanse western Ukranians, among other things. And lets not forget Putin quote, that Ukraine, its beauty; is going to be raped.

The whole argument that the Ukranian goverment is in its way to genocide half of its population its so ****ing laughable that it hurts. If anything, russian speaking people in Ukraine have more political liberties in ****ing Ukraine than in ****ing Russia (Good luck getting anyone else apart from the supreme leader (And oh please for the love of god, do not bring the law to make Ukranian the main languaje of the state as genocide. You will have to explain me then why its not genocide to have the russian language  as the official one in regions as Kalmykia, Karelia, Daguestan, Komi, Yakutia etc...). Holy **** you also claimed that the shut down of television close to the Kremlin was a sign of Ukranian fascistic behaviour, as if Ukranians should accept to have its agressors having a voice in its ****ing country. I mean, you literally wrote that they were accomodating the country in case Putin cames to power in Ukraine XDDDD. Why in God´s Earth any nation should accept that. Also rich that the russians in general talk about genocide considering what its hapening to the tartars in Crimea.

But you know what, the thing is that at the end of the ****ing day, this is all just ****ing stupid whatabouthism. What doesnt change, is still the fact that one nation is actively trying to undermine the sovereignity of another one, has actually occupied territory of said nation, against all international law; and is threathening with further military action, as well as creating a gigantic future loophole for nuclear proliferation (Budapest memorandum, does ring a bell?). Ukraine, as a sovereign nation, has all the right to decide its allies and economic partners, and there is no moral neither legal justification for Russia to alter this decision. That its the main issue behind this crisis, and what this thread is about. So yeah, stop muddling and derailing the discussion with ****ing propaganda, half-thruts and ****ing whatabouthism, because at this point its close to just a pathetic echo chamber.

 

 

 PS: Also, the thing with democracies, is that people have the freedom to say or manifest whatever they like. Story time: Here in Spain some months ago some weirdos of the Falange party wnet and took the main street of Madrid to talk about the threat of the "Jews" and all that stupidity. There was a gigantic backlash in the media and wathever. At the end they were like 500 randoms at best which hardly represented even a fraction of our society, but they there were, the spotlight of our media for like a week, parroting their ****ty ideas in one of the main streets of our capital. There are also still a lot of people who venerate Franco, and he still has some cultural places dedicated to his image and regime. Despite all of this, I think that consider my nation as an authoritarian genocidal fascistic hellhole would be quite unreasonable, in any circles away from ignorants and ideologues, of course). I do also wonder. Considering what you are all saying, does the people of Spain deserve destruction and subjugation to a foreign power? Do I, and my family deserve that? If you find that prepostorous, as you ****ing should, then you should start looking back into your argument, because esentially you are claiming that Ukranians do, under a very similar situation)

 

 

I'm not going to attempt to read this wall text mess, but I see that you like Twitter. 

[CHEqTRO]

7 minutes ago, dbsapp said:

I'm not going to attempt to read this wall text mess, but I see that you like Twitter. 

Fair. It just sums up as to stop parroting bull**** propaganda and derailing the conversation, really.

Edited February 15, 2022 by CHEqTRO

[dbsapp]

Yeah, it's better to repeat for thousand times more how evil Putin is invading peaceful kingdom of Ukraine in your imagination, that won't contradict mass media BS that they feed you daily. 

[CHEqTRO]

Meh, dont know what to say, it definitively seems to be as entertaining as keep hammering the idea in the echo chamber that you guys have built, that Ukranians are just a collective brainwashed genocidal nation, and that oh poor old Russia is just constantly being martirized by the evil west, and has never done anything wrong, the poor thing. Not as nice as that sense of superiority that has to give to think that everyone who disagrees with you in the west must be because it is a brainwashed shill, thats for sure. Honestly, how envious, who could get to live in such a deluded world, it defenitively seems nice. Maybe I should watch some RT and Sputnik for some time, who knows, it might help a bit.  

[dbsapp]

5 minutes ago, CHEqTRO said:

Meh, dont know what to say, it definitively seems to be as entertaining as keep hammering the idea in the echo chamber that you guys have built, that Ukranians are just a collective brainwashed genocidal nation, and that oh poor old Russia is just constantly being martirized by the evil west, and has never done anything wrong, the poor thing. Not as nice as that sense of superiority that has to give to think that everyone who disagrees with you in the west must be because it is a brainwashed shill, thats for sure. Honestly, how envious, who could get to live in such a deluded world, it defenitively seems nice. Maybe I should watch some RT and Sputnik for some time, who knows, it might help a bit.  

Ok, I got you. Russia = bad, Ukraine = good, other opinions are wrong and "echo chamber". Thank you for your useful input.

I advise you to watch more RT ot Sputnik indeed, unless they are banned in your country.