How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Battlefront.com]

Interesting article in RFERL about the real relationship between Russia and China:

https://www.rferl.org/a/china-russia-ties-ukraine-invasion/31865874.html

There are a lot of good thoughts to chew on, but I particularly liked these two:

Quote

“The so-called revitalization of Russia under Putin's reign is based on a false premise,” said Gao Yusheng, who served as China's ambassador to Ukraine from 2005 to 2007. “Russia's decline is evident in all areas...and has had a significant negative impact on the Russian military and its combat capabilities.”

...

“The Russian military’s economic and financial strength, which are not commensurate with its status as a so-called military superpower, could not support a high-tech war,” Gao said. “The Russian Army’s poverty-driven defeat was evident.”

And:

Quote

While Beijing shows no signs of dropping Russia as a partner, the Ukraine war has strained how many Chinese policymakers and thinkers view the country’s future trajectory.

“We have a fundamental difference in our overlooks and outlooks regarding an international order,” said Zhou, who added that Russia’s growing isolation will lead to its export-dependent economy coming under increasing strain.

It finishes with this thought which, I believe, is the key to understanding China's likely support for an isolated Russia:

Quote

“So, apart from the largest nuclear arsenal, how important [will] Russia be 20 years from now?” Zhou said.

In short... "If we piss off the West on behalf of Russia, what do we get out of it other than some more nukes we don't ever want to use?"

Steve

[Huba]

24 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

http://www.hisutton.com/Russian-Navys-Secret-Internal-Waterways.html

Montreaux FTW.

 

Theoretically, Stereguschiy class frigates from Baltic Fleet should just be able to squeeze through the inland waterways to the Black Sea. Those pack the S300 light and are more capable in anti-air then current BSF ships. 

Submarines would be hard though, the max draft for the locks is less than 4m AFAIK. 

Edited May 24, 2022 by Huba

[Sequoia]

12 hours ago, c3k said:

The dominance of ranged fires is interesting. Whether it's artillery or precision guided missiles, observation and weight of fire are the key.

Have I mentioned the need for the US to produce a good 8" gun lately? 

Whichever side can bring it's artillery to bear against the enemy's, will be the side that dominates the fight and wins. Counter-battery fires are critical. Curtail the enemy's artillery, enable your artillery to pummel the enemy positions, and then move forward with infantry and armor, then shove your artillery forward to push your "bubble" further...seems to be the solution.

All of which pivots on the ability to observe your ranged fires.

The days of the stubby howitzer are over. Today, the battle goes to the guns with range. (155L39 doesn't cut it anymore: 155L52 or 155L59 are the key, followed soon by the 203L59. Oh, and every gun section gets a geolocating drone or two.)

Out of curiosity, the US did make a good 8" gun, the M110. I see it was retired by the US in 1994 according to Wikipedia. Any particular reason it would no longer be worthy of first line units?

[Battlefront.com]

Here's a news tidbit that on the surface doesn't sound all that interesting, but in reality it has huge ramifications long term -> switching Ukraine's railroad system over to EU standard narrow gauge.

https://m.censor.net/en/news/3343566/ukraine_will_start_construction_of_eurorail_shmygal

I'm pretty sure this has come up in the past (I recall typing a similar post eons ago) and it didn't happen, but I'm sure this time it will stick.

Steve

[db_zero]

Russia is only part of the equation. Zelinsky has stated any potential agreement with Russia will be put to a referendum vote by the Ukrainian people.

Ukraine has already stated that territorial concessions are off the table.

If the war drags on and economic conditions continue deteriorating in the West you gotta wonder if outside forces will put pressure to end things.

 

 

Edited May 24, 2022 by db_zero

[Ultradave]

3 hours ago, SeinfeldRules said:

There is certainly still a significant amount of benefit to having that self locating ability even if you can’t receive fire mission data. 
 

Definitely. Being able to lay the battery essentially by pushing a button and zeroing the deflection, compared to surveying in each gun is a real timesaver. Manual survey requires a known location, either a benchmark or two map reference able features to find your own location, and takes several minutes.

Dave

[Battlefront.com]

3 minutes ago, Sequoia said:

Out of curiosity, the US did make a good 8" gun, the M110. I see it was retired by the US in 1994 according to Wikipedia. Any particular reason it would no longer be worthy of first line units?

Ammo stocks.  I doubt there is any current capacity to produce munitions for it, so whatever was mothballed (if anything) would be all that's available.  That said, it couldn't be all that difficult to get production ramped again because there's no shell casing and assembly.  Just bags and shells.

I'm not sure it's worth the effort though.  If ammo is going to be produced, why not make 207mm for Ukraine's 2S7 Pion?  Nearly the same thing and they've got experience with them already.

Steve

[Ultradave]

11 minutes ago, Sequoia said:

Out of curiosity, the US did make a good 8" gun, the M110. I see it was retired by the US in 1994 according to Wikipedia. Any particular reason it would no longer be worthy of first line units?

I believe the impetus behind replacing it was the MRLS system's lesser vulnerability to expected counter-battery fire while delivering the same-ish size round to the target. The MRLS system is much more mobile than an 8" howitzer battery.

Dave

[Battlefront.com]

5 minutes ago, db_zero said:

Russia is only part of the equation. Zelinsky has stated any potential agreement with Russia will be put to a referendum vote by the Ukrainian people.

Yup, and this is a huge hurdle for Putin's plan to secure a frozen conflict.  We've already seen how Putin reacted to previous Ukrainian concessions from Minsk 2 which had similar provisions.  It didn't even get to that stage, but if it had Russia's insistence on a lopsided deal would likely have sunk it at the polls.

5 minutes ago, db_zero said:

If the war drags on and economic conditions continue deteriorating in the West you gotta wonder if outside forces will put pressure to end things.

For sure there will be pressure.  But it won't matter because only a few countries have to keep up support and I don't see both the US and UK backing off in any meaningful way.  Currently the US contribution is about the same as all others combined.

Let's also remember that however weakened support for Ukraine might get, Russia's in worse shape because nobody is supporting it.  Plus, Ukraine doesn't require much to keep the occupied territories toxic to Russian administration.  Small arms and some plastique will do the trick.

Steve

[Ultradave]

4 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Ammo stocks.  I doubt there is any current capacity to produce munitions for it, so whatever was mothballed (if anything) would be all that's available.  That said, it couldn't be all that difficult to get production ramped again because there's no shell casing and assembly.  Just bags and shells.

I'm not sure it's worth the effort though.  If ammo is going to be produced, why not make 207mm for Ukraine's 2S7 Pion?  Nearly the same thing and they've got experience with them already.

Steve

Yeah, that too. Resurrecting it at this point is not really practical. Man that thing was a beast! 

Dave

[Calamine Waffles]

44 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Ammo stocks.  I doubt there is any current capacity to produce munitions for it, so whatever was mothballed (if anything) would be all that's available.  That said, it couldn't be all that difficult to get production ramped again because there's no shell casing and assembly.  Just bags and shells.

I'm not sure it's worth the effort though.  If ammo is going to be produced, why not make 207mm for Ukraine's 2S7 Pion?  Nearly the same thing and they've got experience with them already.

Steve

Also have to ask yourself what can the M110 do that the MLRS or M109 cannot do just as well or better.

[OldSarge]

6 minutes ago, Calamine Waffles said:

Also have to ask yourself what can the M110 do that the MLRS or M109 cannot do just as well or better.

Especially when the Army begins to field the ERCA system in 2023.

https://www.defensenews.com/digital-show-dailies/global-force-symposium/2021/03/18/us-army-nears-choosing-first-battalion-for-extended-range-cannon/

[Battlefront.com]

12 minutes ago, Calamine Waffles said:

Also have to ask yourself what can the M110 do that the MLRS or M109 cannot do just as well or better.

Not a thing, hence whey they got shelved

Funny story about the 2S7 Pion from 2014.  When Russia first inserted its troops into Donbas (July) one of the units got hit by Pion fire.  They were not happy with the results at all.  I distinctly remember some intercepted or otherwise communicated report from the unit it hit.  IIRC they called the use of the Pion "unfair".  OK, I have no idea if my memory of that is correct, and I'm not going to go digging through a massive thread form 8 years ago, so I'm just going to presume I'm remembering it (reasonably) correctly.

Steve

[dan/california]

A nice thorough Ukrainian "field test" of the MLRS would advance the conversation, a lot.

[Huba]

More on the M777:

 

[SeinfeldRules]

19 minutes ago, Huba said:

More on the M777:

 

Those look to still be in western Europe, so there is still a chance that equipment will be removed before it crosses the border. 
 

Or it can be actual US military howitzers redeploying after an exercise. We often use civilian truckers to haul them around the states between training areas so it may be the same in Europe. I also see a generator on one of the flatbeds, which usually isn’t standard equipment for the howitzer, and may be from another unit that was training alongside the artillery unit. Edit: Also a HMMWV trailer. Have we seen Ukraine operating HMMWVs yet? Double Edit: The howitzers also seem to be named, due to the stencils on the front of the tubes. Very common for American artillery units to name their howitzers and I haven’t seen one in Ukraine that were named. Could still need to be repainted but a sign to me that these aren’t going straight to Ukraine.

Hopefully we’ll see them in country with that equipment but until then I’m doubtful. 

Edited May 24, 2022 by SeinfeldRules

[Vacillator]

6 minutes ago, Huba said:

More on the M777:

 

That is a 'convoi exceptionnel'.

[sburke]

seems he was killed in action

Retired Russian Air Force Major General Banamat Botashev, 63, has become the 13th general to die in Ukrainian territory since Russia invaded on Feb. 24, according to a tally by Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense. (Russia’s Defense Ministry has confirmed only two, and U.S. officials have not given a specific number). He was reportedly shot down by Ukrainian forces over the Luhansk region on Sunday, becoming the highest-ranking air force commander to be killed in the war.

Another Russian General Reported Dead in Ukraine (msn.com)

 

[The_MonkeyKing]

12 minutes ago, SeinfeldRules said:

Or it can be actual US military howitzers redeploying after an exercise. We often use civilian truckers to haul them around the states between training areas so it may be the same in Europe. I also see a generator on one of the flatbeds, which usually isn’t standard equipment for the howitzer, and may be from another unit that was training alongside the artillery unit. Edit: Also a HMMWV trailer. Have we seen Ukraine operating HMMWVs yet?

Even almost 30 visually confirmed lost. https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-ukrainian.html

Confirmed deliveries over 200-300. Might be significantly more.

Edited May 24, 2022 by The_MonkeyKing

[c3k]

2 hours ago, Sequoia said:

Out of curiosity, the US did make a good 8" gun, the M110. I see it was retired by the US in 1994 according to Wikipedia. Any particular reason it would no longer be worthy of first line units?

M110 (the entire spg) had the M115 8" howitzer. The Psion has an 8" (203mm) gun. 

For range, the gun would be better than a howitzer. I followed the reasons why the US retired the 8" howitzer...but I forget them now.

[Huba]

14 minutes ago, SeinfeldRules said:

Those look to still be in western Europe, so there is still a chance that equipment will be removed before it crosses the border. 
 

Or it can be actual US military howitzers redeploying after an exercise. We often use civilian truckers to haul them around the states between training areas so it may be the same in Europe. I also see a generator on one of the flatbeds, which usually isn’t standard equipment for the howitzer, and may be from another unit that was training alongside the artillery unit. Edit: Also a HMMWV trailer. Have we seen Ukraine operating HMMWVs yet? Double Edit: The howitzers also seem to be named, due to the stencils on the front of the tubes. Very common for American artillery units to name their howitzers and I haven’t seen one in Ukraine that were named. Could still need to be repainted but a sign to me that these aren’t going straight to Ukraine.

Hopefully we’ll see them in country with that equipment but until then I’m doubtful. 

You are right, M777s are deployed with American forces in Romania. Myth busted! 

https://flic.kr/p/2n9NkYt

 

[c3k]

3 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Here's a news tidbit that on the surface doesn't sound all that interesting, but in reality it has huge ramifications long term -> switching Ukraine's railroad system over to EU standard narrow gauge.

https://m.censor.net/en/news/3343566/ukraine_will_start_construction_of_eurorail_shmygal

I'm pretty sure this has come up in the past (I recall typing a similar post eons ago) and it didn't happen, but I'm sure this time it will stick.

Steve

Isn't that what some eisenbahn engineers said back in, oh, about '42?  

Snarkiness aside, that means a tighter commercial tie to the rest of Europe and less of a tie to Russia. Long term thinking...

[c3k]

2 hours ago, Calamine Waffles said:

Also have to ask yourself what can the M110 do that the MLRS or M109 cannot do just as well or better.

It can deliver an 8" shell.  See if an M109 can do that. 

Weight of fire is a thing.  Hell, if you're absolutely wedded to some 155mm shell, put a sabot on it and fire it from an 8"...with more powder and a longer barrel.

Tube artillery is different than rocket artillery is different than drones is different than air support is different from....

There's a place for all. The US is being caught short with the L39 155's. There is a place for 8". But it comes at a cost in budget, manpower, organization and logistics. Being able to fire precise, cheap, heavy shells out to 40 klicks (without rocket boost) is something worth looking at. 

On a smaller scale, this is why the US Army is going from 5.56mm to 6.8 Fury. Longer range, more downrange impact.

[JonS]

There's a reason the USN doesnt have BBs anymore. While they do have some unique niche capability, overall the same *effects* can be delivered better and more effectively by other platforms.

Actually, the *main* unique niche capabilty that BBs have is the factor. That and a highly partisan fanbase.

If the US Army really want's longer ranged barrel launched fires, they should stop messing around with the 109, and just buy a ton of PzH2000s. 60+km is nothing to sneeze at (and what's wrong with RAP anyway?).

Edited May 24, 2022 by JonS

[c3k]

Ask the average Ukrainian soldier: if they could wave a magic wand and have every 155/152 system replaced with a 203/8" system (magically and at no cost), would they? (Other than the loaders, they'd all say yes.  )

Tube artillery is a very relevant weapon system. It has been augmented by other ranged fires systems, but not replaced or supplanted. (Like the battleship was by carriers.)

155s bring a lot more to the game than 105. Well...8" has a place (maybe just a niche).