Sojourner Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 33 minutes ago, dan/california said: and the rest of it is various bits of the Russian state either trying to cover their a$$es or take whatever advantage they can ^ Exactly this. Probably the only thing known for certain about the incident (other than that there was a fire and some people died). 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Battlefront.com Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 Here's the best way to avoid falling down into a rabbit hole, and the best way to break an ankle: Avoid = use accumulated factual based knowledge to evaluate the situation with the assumption that it "is what it looks like". OBJECTIVELY examine the known facts, likely motivations, possible benefits/harm to the main parties, etc. and see what matches and what conflicts with the apparent explanation. If the most obvious and straight forward explanation seems to conform to the primary evidence, motivation, benefits, etc. then it is probably what it seems. Occam's Razor. Fall Victim = start with the premise that it is all a lie. Do not look at things objectively, reject evidence that both obvious and conforms to the assumed event, and (most importantly) start looking for ANYTHING to build a counter narrative around. Once such things are identified, blow them out of proportion and/or make up your own belief system based on a complete and totally ignorant understanding of whatever is being held up as "proof". Above all else, reject any rational, factual, knowledge based counter arguments that conflict with the "proof" that it is all a lie. In other words, do not listen to anybody, just keep digging the hole of ignorance deeper. As I stated before, this is Russia and we are all right to look at something like the Moscow attack and wonder if there's something hidden going on. Russia has earned this sort of skepticism. But there's a difference between starting with a degree of skepticism and doggedly holding onto a fantasy story that gets weirder and more crazy every time some piece of "proof" is stomped on. This looked like a terrorist attack from the start. It makes sense that some group would do this. It makes sense that they would do it in the way it happened. It makes sense that they would do something now(ish) while the regime is distracted by the mess it made in Ukraine. It is not surprising that Russian security forces bungled the response, even with the US warning, because Russia just let a mutiny get close to taking over Moscow by force. It makes no sense for the Kremlin to want to proactively open a second war of choice when it is so totally losing its first one. It does make sense for the Kremlin to try and somehow pin this on Ukraine because that's what the entire state is focused on. Etc. etc. Lastly, it is a "lazy conspiracy theory" to suggest that the entire attack happened as it seems, but the authorities allowed it to happen or somehow helped from the shadows. That sort of thing is just about impossible to prove and, in this case, runs counter factual to everything else about the situation. Having said that, we almost certainly saw some in the Russian security services not act on information they had about Priggy and his boys making a mutiny. Which is to say, there is a possibility that someone deliberately took no action when they should have in order to help destabilize Putin's clique in order to gain a power advantage. However, currently there is NO evidence for this, but it can't be ruled out and it also is not contradictory to this being a terrorist act that had ZERO Kremlin involvement. This was an ISIS-K attack, and if anybody wants to say otherwise they are welcome to do it elsewhere because they will be banned from this Forum. I have no more interest seeing people cook up complete and utter crap that Putin did this any more than I want to see someone posting that Kyiv is a bunch of Nazis and they started this war to begin with. Understood? Steve 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beleg85 Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 (edited) 2 hours ago, Offshoot said: Disgustingly hypocritical generic crap. A day and a half might not even be considered regular for this. Four lines of cocaine + bottle of vodka and when morning comes this guy can deliver some dumb text half the length of Mahabharata if daddy Putin really wants, without AI help. On russkiy after all. Btw. artists are one of most slimmy, bootlicking group in Russia. 75% of local musical pop scene is like that and possibly much more among filmmakers. Those with spine mostly left many years ago. Edited March 25 by Beleg85 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harmon Rabb Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 This Easter I'm going to pray that this is finally going to be voted on. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Battlefront.com Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 1 hour ago, Harmon Rabb said: This Easter I'm going to pray that this is finally going to be voted on. You know, it's sad to think there's a better chance of Jesus rising again this Sunday than the House GOP doing the right thing on Monday. And yet... Steve 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sburke Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said: You know, it's sad to think there's a better chance of Jesus rising again this Sunday than the House GOP doing the right thing on Monday. And yet... Steve 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisl Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 On 3/23/2024 at 3:17 PM, Kinophile said: Once again proving that everything is funnier when there's a duck involved, no matter how unfunny it is at its core. 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisl Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 7 hours ago, The_Capt said: I really don’t see that stopping an FPV with an RPG round strapped to it coming in at 80kph. And it definitely won’t do a damned thing against this little monster: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214914714000348 We really haven't seen much in the way of standoff EFPs dropped-from/carried-on drones yet, have we? A former USAF tech development guy I know thinks the CBU-97/BLU-108 is the greatest thing since sliced bread for dealing with armor. The Javelin packs something similar into a missile transport, but the rocket equation makes it kind of big to haul around. Drones give up the Javelin's speed for range, stealth, and smaller mass and could become an even bigger AT nightmare with sensor fuzed EFPs (either as FPV suicide drones or as EFP taxis with multiple warheads). 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carolus Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 (edited) 15 minutes ago, chrisl said: We really haven't seen much in the way of standoff EFPs dropped-from/carried-on drones yet, have we? A former USAF tech development guy I know thinks the CBU-97/BLU-108 is the greatest thing since sliced bread for dealing with armor. The Javelin packs something similar into a missile transport, but the rocket equation makes it kind of big to haul around. Drones give up the Javelin's speed for range, stealth, and smaller mass and could become an even bigger AT nightmare with sensor fuzed EFPs (either as FPV suicide drones or as EFP taxis with multiple warheads). Considering we have SMART and BONUS rounds which prove that a tiny paragliding object is capable of carrying an EFP projector, drones could get a massive upgrade with this if the trigger mechanism is adapted. Remove the need to hover and for a human to pull the trigger. Place an EFP projector under the drone, have it circle or lie in wait (flying up based on a movement sensor), have the EFP trigger as soon as it recognizes a vehicle or person from above. It will happen in the blink of an eye. There could be different versions with different target data, though the miniaturization of systems could mean that each drone is multirole. After burning a hole through either turret or helmet, fly back to a save pick-up location for recharging and attaching a new EFP projector in a can. This is pretty close to the intelligent, self-replenishing minefield and it is not unfeasible at all with tech which exists right now. Edited March 25 by Carolus 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan/california Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 (edited) 23 minutes ago, chrisl said: We really haven't seen much in the way of standoff EFPs dropped-from/carried-on drones yet, have we? A former USAF tech development guy I know thinks the CBU-97/BLU-108 is the greatest thing since sliced bread for dealing with armor. The Javelin packs something similar into a missile transport, but the rocket equation makes it kind of big to haul around. Drones give up the Javelin's speed for range, stealth, and smaller mass and could become an even bigger AT nightmare with sensor fuzed EFPs (either as FPV suicide drones or as EFP taxis with multiple warheads). I think there is vast potential or a fixed wing suicide drone just big enough to carry the efp from that program, perhaps with some the type of modifications. The_Capt discussed a page or three ago. Better computer modeling improves almost everything after all. It just flies over the vehicle five or ten or twenty five meters up, and fires an EFP that penetrate anything except the front armor of an Abrams straight down. The Germans given have given Ukraine an artillery shell that deploys more or less the same tech by parachute. A drone just seems like a far better, far cheaper way to deliver it in most cases. Edit: Cross posted with Carolus. Edited March 25 by dan/california 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vanir Ausf B Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 1 hour ago, chrisl said: We really haven't seen much in the way of standoff EFPs dropped-from/carried-on drones yet, have we? There is an EFP version of the Lancet. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_MonkeyKing Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 Seems the attack was not as successful as initially stated 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 (edited) Damn! What a huge BOOMs I heard! At least three. Russians launched something fast from Crimea and this something tried to hit center of the city and probably Kyiv hydro energy plant north from the city. My wife has seen SAM launches. This couldn't be Iskander - too far for Crimea, either N.Korean sh...t or Onix-M (800 km). Reportedly all missiles were intercepted, debrises of onе of them fell down in central part of Kyiv. Edited March 25 by Haiduk 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hcrof Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 Haiduk, do you have information on how bad the recent strike on the power grid was? Apparently the whole of Kharkiv was without power, and some cities too? Is this worse than before? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
panzermartin Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 Some things I wonder about. If the russian raids are that bad and 95% of missiles are intercepted why Russia keeps targeting Kiev and wasting valuable ordnance that could be used on the battlefield for instance. They estimate that they will expend and reach the breaking point of Ukrainian AD at some calculated point? Why they have allowed after years so many working AD batteries. Patriots are static on defense, they are large systems that can be spotted and tracked. They have numerous spies on the ground. Why one morning not launch a massive strike exclusively on two batteries for instance. Lastly, Is it unrealistic to employ high flying Tupolevs with glide bombs against AA batteries? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ales Dvorak Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 18 hours ago, kraze said: This morning russian propagandist singer Shaman posted a video with a fully mixed and mastered song about this terrorist act. The guy and his team must be really really talented to fully write, arrange and produce a song and a video in just 1.5 days. But hey - I'm just a mad conspiracy theorist. You're not mad conspiracy theorist, you just don't know anything about music production. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Capt Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 Looks like the four they captured (and beat the hell out of) are from Tajikistan. https://www.ctvnews.ca/world/four-men-charged-in-moscow-attack-showing-signs-of-beatings-at-hearing-court-says-two-accept-guilt-1.6820048 Wondering if this is a regional fracture point being exploited, right after the Russian election. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
panzermartin Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 The video of Shaman's song seems like recorded one afternoon with a smartphone. The melody, could be one generic already orchestrated DAW file sitting in his hard disk. Lyrics are nothing special. Yes this can come out in day if you are driven and focused (or Kremlin funded!) But Alternatively he could go for a more bootleg live and unplugged version for authenticity (and conspiracytheoristproof) 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beleg85 Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 Results of last airstrike. Russians claim that Kinzals were used to target among others "seat of Ukrainian special services" and Patriot batteries places at Zhuliany airport. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kraft Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 Orlivka reportedly has been taken by ru forces 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Butschi Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 1 hour ago, panzermartin said: Some things I wonder about. If the russian raids are that bad and 95% of missiles are intercepted why Russia keeps targeting Kiev and wasting valuable ordnance that could be used on the battlefield for instance. They estimate that they will expend and reach the breaking point of Ukrainian AD at some calculated point? Why they have allowed after years so many working AD batteries. Patriots are static on defense, they are large systems that can be spotted and tracked. They have numerous spies on the ground. Why one morning not launch a massive strike exclusively on two batteries for instance. Lastly, Is it unrealistic to employ high flying Tupolevs with glide bombs against AA batteries? Whether this is their intention or not, they do it like in WW2: One thing that the bombing campaigns were effective at was keeping the Luftwaffe busy defending the cities instead of contesting the frontlines. Ukraine has to commit Patriots et al. defending the cities instead of shooting down Russian aviation near the front. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
panzermartin Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 11 minutes ago, Butschi said: Whether this is their intention or not, they do it like in WW2: One thing that the bombing campaigns were effective at was keeping the Luftwaffe busy defending the cities instead of contesting the frontlines. Ukraine has to commit Patriots et al. defending the cities instead of shooting down Russian aviation near the front. Yes that could make sense. Especially paired with the fact that before the re-surge of Kiev bombings a lot of Su 34s were lost, apparently to Patriots moved closer to the Frontline. Now the pressure is back on the capital. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carolus Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 (edited) 22 minutes ago, panzermartin said: Yes that could make sense. Especially paired with the fact that before the re-surge of Kiev bombings a lot of Su 34s were lost, apparently to Patriots moved closer to the Frontline. Now the pressure is back on the capital. There some Ukrainian sources who claimed that PAC-3s for Patriot are running low. Maybe Russia just hopes to outpace Patriot supplies - and since these are made exclusively in the US, and the US congress is running in circles at the moment... Edited March 25 by Carolus 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Battlefront.com Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 3 hours ago, The_MonkeyKing said: Seems the attack was not as successful as initially stated The General Staff's description of damage to the Yamal was quite explicit. I think we should presume, for now, that there's truth to it. But it seems that the Azov was not damaged, perhaps not even targeted. In some ways a near miss is as good as a hit. It should further shake Russia's thinking about to handle the threat of Ukraine's precision standoff capabilities. And that's a good thing even if the result isn't more metal on the seabed. Steve 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Battlefront.com Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 14 minutes ago, Carolus said: There some Ukrainian sources who claimed that PAC-3s for Patriot are running low. Maybe Russia just hopes to outpace Patriot supplies - and since these are made exclusively in the US, and the US congress is running in circles at the moment... I think this has been Russia's hope since the start of the war for EVERYTHING that they do. Whether it is air defenses, armored vehicles, artillery, shells, or manpower the intent is to wear out an ability. Since Russia clearly doesn't have a better idea of how to "win" this war, the strategy has remained the same since the start of this mess. Steve 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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