Carolus

Sorry, as @FancyCat noted there is no corroboration of this story. I should have checked myself before I posted. Lesson learned!

Girkin is being accused of treason in Russia.

And the problem is, the war cannot end from a Russian regime perspective. Not while the UA still stands. Imagine if Russia actually runs out of something critical and the UA is still in some sort of combat-ready state (with Western supply). There will be a push attempt, unless there is a radical change in political will from the Ukrainian population. Of course, just like Ukraine, Russia will try to make up for less amounts of artillery by substituting with FPV drones and Lancets. Which is why in 2024/5 we will have to see where anti-drone measures are going. UA needs to project a drone-free bubble ahead of every movement.

This poster claims that with the current loss rate, Russia will be out of heavy artillery within the first half of 2025 based on counting satellite photos of Russian depots. Production rate is miniscule compared to losses. 152mm will run out before 122mm, SPGs will run out after towed guns do. Mentions it is likely they will run out of usable tubes before that.

"A little more sprinkles on the topping, please." Looks like some shells have made their convoluted way through the Ukrainian logistical system to the frontline.

These will be M795. If the complaints about the fragmentation pattern of the M107 are not just yarn, I hope the M795 will show more satisfactory results for the troops.

Might be confirmation for the airplane (reported as SU25) shot down on the Donbas front a dew days ago.

You are right, it is fake news. This clip is from a US research project

Clip of Ukrainian octocopter shooting down a smaller quadrocopter. Poster claims it's combat footage but I think it looks like training / testing.

Good questions for potential buyers. What comes to mind is the greater number of available launch platforms. Regarding Ukraine, I think at the moment they will be happy to get whatever goes boom from the West and doesn't add too much to their logistical zoo.

100km 155mm? Is this the unholy baby of a missile and a shell? If Ukraine can reduce the GPS jammers, these could have interesting applications.

The article was edited to remove that quotation. I hope it's true and this was simply done to create plausible deniability for the UK government. But it could also just be a hasty comment by Cameron or an overly eager journalist who misheard.

I think the Western response is to fire an anti-rad or anti-EW missile salvo with its infinite airforce that homes in on whatever is making the most EM noise after being launched in the general direction of the enemy. Some people might say "but what about long-range AD" at which point we look at the comparatively unimportant Iraq war with over 1000 airplanes in the initial attack waves.

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1786080923596828965?t=4jlcQM8qyX4PzYXIUbJw3g&s=19 "Gazprom report $6.7 billion loss for 2023, first net loss since 1999" Is this some sort of Russian reverse psyOp? Aren't their financial reports coming from RNG at this point? Because if it's true, goodamn.

I remember the hope we had that the massive loss of trucks in 2022 would result in something, but while it certainly strained the RA (to the point of limited collapse), it didn't break them and even now with the increased supply line distances due to HIMARS, they are holding up well. Crazy how much their ragtag system is absorbing.

Russian locomotives destroyed by partisans. Haven't seen that before. Death by a thousand needles is a thing.

I really hope this package will bring some relief to the UAF. The manpower problem will remain, and obviously equipment can only do so much to alleviate it. Also, Europe should not lean back because of this. Good that some announcements were made by the UK, France and others as well. It seems cruel but understandable that the West is connecting deliveries to certain conditions. Like telling the Russians to stop certain infrastructure bombing and when they do not, Sullivan & Co approved ATACMS to Biden. It is harsh, but it was worth a try. But what Ukraine really needs is reliability instead of big packages here and there. And of course, ramp up, ramp up, ramp up the war factories everywhere in the West. It's uncomfortable but too much is at stake, so I will always defend that before economic concerns. Also, I hope the oil refinery strikes continue, as well as other strikes on military relevant factories in Russia. And it looks like sanctions on North Korea and China are in the works for helping Russia. Late, but every bit of pressure helps to squeeze the noose slowly tighter. If the old man can pull this off...

AFAIK, the chemical weapons convention includes irrititants. The USA reserve the use for "defensive action" and when its usage could prevent civilian harm, but it cannot not be used offensively e.g. for house clearing.

Some US company heard people in this thread wondering about Western automatic mortars and minefield breaching.

I heard France promised to supply 74 Caesar in 2024. If they can keep that promise, it is a good addition to the Ukrainian arsenal.

Some possibility of why Johnson changed his blockade stance.

Does anyone who knows his way around artillery shells know what these Russians are doing? One of them seems to be attaching fuses. But this whole activity is strange. Are shell housings usually closed off with a cap you need to bash in?

I am not politically aligned with Shapiro, or the classic Republicans, but I would make a deal with the devil just to push things along at this point, and I am thankful for every conservative figure or Cold Warrior / old warhawk who throws their weight into the balance for pushing back the new Axis.

Apparently GUR claims the TU-22M3 was "shot down with the same means the A-50 was previously shot down", which is still a mystery weapon. (I remember hypotheses in this thread went from a modified S200 missile to SoF camping with a MANPAD hundreds of kilometers inside Russia)