How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[NamEndedAllen]

5 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Ok, so what?  In '99 Putin used terror as a mechanism to take power.  In 2024...he is already in power.  Major terror attacks in Moscow are now his problem because he is supposed to be the new czar and lead Russians to a glorious new empire.  Having a terror group poop all over that is not good news anyway he spins this...he is the state.  

Putin just sent 100k+ countrymen to die in a useless war he started.  No one is doubting his capacity to "do dirty".  What is in doubt is the utility and practicality of another staged terror attack in the current context.    

Simply - because you were sure it would be too difficult for Putin/FSB to carry out this as a false flag. Pretty clear that yes, he was able to do such a thing, possibly multiple times in the past. Period. A factual reference. Not claimed as evidence of guilt but clearly as evidence that such acts are in his modus operandi, his experience and his ruthlessness. That is all.

BTW, our understanding of his actions and rationales is obviously incomplete and speculative. 

[Battlefront.com]

19 minutes ago, NamEndedAllen said:

Simply - because you were sure it would be too difficult for Putin/FSB to carry out this as a false flag. Pretty clear that yes, he was able to do such a thing, possibly multiple times in the past. Period. A factual reference. Not claimed as evidence of guilt but clearly as evidence that such acts are in his modus operandi, his experience and his ruthlessness. That is all.

BTW, our understanding of his actions and rationales is obviously incomplete and speculative. 

No, nobody thinks Putin's regime could pull off something like this.  The doubt about this being a false flag attack has always been that if Putin was going to put in that sort of effort into a false flag operation that it would at least make some f'n sense.  We ALL know that Russia does false flag ops.  They've done so many related to Ukraine it probably borders on uncountable.  And many of them, including some real classics from 2014, were poorly executed and horribly thought out.  But all of them made sense in the context of what was trying to be achieved, just like this inept and ill conceived war makes perfect sense from Putin's perspective. 

The time to start thinking conspiracy theory is when something happens that is perfectly timed to give some sort of advantage to a desperate regime.  This never, ever, EVER made any sense in that way.  No how tortured the theories were, they just did not make sense.  On the other hand, what always made sense was that a cruel tyrannical system produces... wait for it... people that want to strike back at it.  Further, that some of those people have an established pattern of conducting terrorist attacks.

The last 4 or 5 pages have been filled with utter and complete BS nonsense that it makes my head hurt thinking of it again.  So please, let's not keep going on this dead horse that was dead before it even started getting beaten.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

But admitt it, folks; this country sux at so many levels it breaks all measures. One would think that capital of authoritarian state at war with enemy four times smaller, full of all kinds of police, military formations, paramilitary formations, incognito formations on top of entire chain of spies, snitches and cameras would at least be relatively safe from this one type of danger. But hell no, hold my beer and all of that.

For a long time I thought the security apparatus was generally competent.  But we've seen quite a few examples of that not being the case.  And if there was any doubt then we have Priggy Boy to thank for showing us the truth.  Russia's internal security seems to be as full of holes and prone to catastrophic embarrassing failure as much as anything else within the regime.

To give Russians a little bit of a break, this sort of thing is very difficult to defeat with any degree of certainty.  Worse, the groups that want to attack have endless time and opportunities to figure out how to be successful.

There's an old saying about situations like this.  The Russian security forces have to get it right every single time to be successful.  The terrorists only have to get it right once.

Steve

[Kinophile]

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-23-2024

Interesting note from Bahkmut:

Quote

 A Ukrainian battalion commander operating in the Bakhmut direction stated that Russian forces are conducting assaults using mechanized vehicles for fire cover and to transport infantry to the front line but noted that Ukrainian forces are able to inflict significant manpower and equipment losses on Russian troops.[42] The Ukrainian battalion commander reported that Ukrainian forces currently disable 60 to 70 percent of vehicles that Russian forces field in assaults near Bakhmut.

JFC.

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, Kinophile said:

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-23-2024

Interesting note from Bahkmut:

JFC.

This seems to check out.  There's been reports of several pushes around Bakhmut recently and no reports of Ukraine losing any significant ground.

Steve

[Kinophile]

 

 

[Haiduk]

10 hours ago, Kinophile said:

Ship hit also? 

 

On this video men discussed why they see a smoke over the ship and after all they decided this was a smoke screen - usual thing, when Sevastopol is under attack.

At the morning UKR forces repeated attack on Sevastopol.

Oil depot hit in Hvardiyske (rus.Gvardeyskoye) near airfield.

Ukrainian General Staff also reported two large landing ships "Yamal" and "Azov" were hit, but no photos yet. Except this confirmed the hit of BSF communication center and four other military infrastructure objects

Apparently first hint that "Yamal" in not good condition after this night from local TG

Edited March 24 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

At the 5:00 Russians conducted next combined strike with Shaheds and Kh-101 missiles from Tu-95. Later at 9:00 MiG-31K launched two Kh-47 "Kinzhal" missiles on infrastructure object in L'viv oblast, which was hit in previous wave.

Statistic of AD work:

28 Shaheds launched - 25 shot down

29 Kh-101 - 18 shot down (among them about 10 near and over Kyiv - I woke up from loud explosion, when one missile, coming from Brovary was shot down over the forest in several km from my house)

2 Kh-47 Kinzal - no interceptions

Except L'viv oblast, Kryvyi Rih city power infrastructure was hit again (it had time to work one day after reparing), so citizens again remained without electricity and heating. Port infrastructure was hit in Odesa oblast. One Kh-101 missile violatred Polish airspace and was there during 39 seconds, after this it returned on Ukrianian territory. Poland scramble own fighters, but AD systems only tracked the missile, not engaging it.

 Scheme of attack (without later Kinzhal launches), yellow - Shaheds, red - Kh-101

Edited March 24 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

"Birds of Magyar" hit enemy FPV crew in the house in Krynky with two "fat drones" with 1,5 kg of HE payload. First drone destroyed upper floor, the second ruined ground floor and burried Russians in the basement

 

[Beleg85]

9 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

To give Russians a little bit of a break, this sort of thing is very difficult to defeat with any degree of certainty.  Worse, the groups that want to attack have endless time and opportunities to figure out how to be successful.

There's an old saying about situations like this.  The Russian security forces have to get it right every single time to be successful.  The terrorists only have to get it right once.

Intelligence failure is one thing. But the fact they did managed to slip away and pathetic time of reaction from services is the other - like firefighters not extinguishing the fire due to danger from gunmen and police not entering building due to flames... Also fact that there are so many half-military security formations creates organizational chaos and overlapping competences. On top of that, perhaps most important, is inertia when comes to reponsibility of different branches; everyone wants only to cover their a.s and do nothing extra.

3 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Except L'viv oblast, Kryvyi Rih city power infrastructure was hit again (it had time to work one day after reparing), so citizens again remained without electricity and heating. Port infrastructure was hit in Odesa oblast. One Kh-101 missile violatred Polish airspace and was there during 39 seconds, after this it returned on Ukrianian territory. Poland scramble own fighters, but AD systems only tracked the missile, not engaging it.

According to Chief of Airforce here F-16 were scrambled as Russian TU-s were in the air, but there was no firepower in this actual place able to shot down the rocket, which flew for short time along the border several hundred meters deep, on the verge of UA airspace (last time it was 2:30+ sek),. Village is even closer to border than neighbour Przewodów.

Edited March 24 by Beleg85

[Kinophile]

 

 

[The_Capt]

19 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Intelligence failure is one thing. But the fact they did managed to slip away and pathetic time of reaction from services is the other - like firefighters not extinguishing the fire due to danger from gunmen and police not entering building due to flames... Also fact that there are so many half-military security formations creates organizational chaos and overlapping competences.

Have said it before, oversubscribing Russian ability is just as bad as undersubscribing.  Putin has made the largest Russian strategic error since 1905 but for some reason every twitch or spurt coming out of Moscow is a master-plot.  Russian will is made of iron, and Russian manpower is a bottomless pool.

This was a major security failure that may just signal just how rickety things are in Putin-land.  Russia is straining from this stupid war in ways that we simply cannot see.  This entire incident is an example of Russian regime weakness, not ruthless strength.

The next big question is, how deep and far do these cracks in the Russian facade go?

[Haiduk]

Russian TG claims yesterday some "Commander" was in Sevastopol (unknown about whom he told - maybe Navy Commander?) also he writes not only "Yamal" and "Azov" landing ships were hit, but also middle intelligense and communication ship "Ivan Khurs"

[Haiduk]

Kuibyshev refinery in Samara city halted after yesterday strike. AVT-4 fractionation column was taken out. Minus 7 mln.tons of yearly output

[MOS:96B2P]

These ISW guys are usually spot on. 

 

 

[Haiduk]

Bakhmut area. Despite huge losses Russians have slow advance toward Chasiv Yar. They claimed Ivanivske is under their control, but this is not true, UKR frorces stiil hold south-eastern part of settlement

 

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

Intelligence failure is one thing. But the fact they did managed to slip away and pathetic time of reaction from services is the other - like firefighters not extinguishing the fire due to danger from gunmen and police not entering building due to flames... Also fact that there are so many half-military security formations creates organizational chaos and overlapping competences. On top of that, perhaps most important, is inertia when comes to reponsibility of different branches; everyone wants only to cover their a.s and do nothing extra.

I hate cutting Russia slack, especially because I do think the performance was pathetic, but we had something similar happen in the US two years ago.  There was a school shooting and hundreds of officers stood around outside for more than an hour while the shooter moved around freely within the building.  The federal government made a 600 report about it and many feel it wasn't harsh enough on the police response.

"Nineteen children and two teachers were killed, and at least 17 others were wounded. Officers took 77 minutes to confront and kill the gunman, who was contained with his victims inside a pair of connected classrooms at Robb Elementary School. “People would have survived,” Attorney General Merrick Garland said, had there been a swifter response.

The 600-page report describes, in often-minute detail, the breakdown in leadership, training, coordination and communication among the large number of local, state and federal law enforcement agencies that arrived at the scene."

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/18/us/uvalde-justice-department-report-takeaways.html

My point here is that the US has a very well known issue with "active shooters".  It's one of the most talked about and most planned for crisis responses that police have focused on.  And yet, despite hundreds of police officers, they completely failed to follow the very first rule (that even I know!!) which is you DO NOT WAIT A SECOND when there's an active shooter.  And yet... they screwed up.

Now, I believe the problem in Moscow is the result of far bigger problems than what I just described in the US.  However, we should keep criticism in perspective.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

37 minutes ago, MOS:96B2P said:

These ISW guys are usually spot on. 

 

 

Yeah, the videos they uploaded pretty much clinch it.  Conspiracy theorists saying this was some masterful FSB operation would be better off trying to convince me the Earth is flat or that the US never landed any astronauts on the Moon.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

Great batch of news out of Sevastopol!  Those landing ships are critical to Russia's logistics and taking two of them out, hopefully permanently, would be a great thing.  At the very least it is a reminder to Russia that if they use their ships they will lose them.  And that makes me smile!

Steve

[kraze]

On 3/23/2024 at 5:46 PM, Battlefront.com said:

Then come up with a terrorist situation as I described with people running around pretending to be Ukrainian instead of Russian Caucasians.  Really, it's not that hard to do.  In fact, Russia has already done this on a small scale several times earlier in the war.

We all know Putin is evil.  We all know he has done, and will continue to do, evil things to his own people to further his own agenda.  But you know what?  The world is a complicated and violent place.  Putin is not the only one that kills children or theater goers to further his cause.  So it can be both true that Putin loves to kill his own people and that there's someone else who just killed a bunch of Russians for whatever they believe in.

Look, if you want to be a conspiracy theorist and try to convince people that the world is flat because Russia says it is round, that's fine.  But do not do it here.  My patience with your lack of interest in being objective and discussing the events rationally based on a broad view is wearing very thin.

As the saying goes, "straighten up and fly right, or you will crash and burn".  Stop peddling this nonsense or I will put you on a vacation.

Steve

This morning russian propagandist singer Shaman posted a video with a fully mixed and mastered song about this terrorist act. The guy and his team must be really really talented to fully write, arrange and produce a song and a video in just 1.5 days.

But hey - I'm just a mad conspiracy theorist.

[Homo_Ferricus]

15 minutes ago, kraze said:

This morning russian propagandist singer Shaman posted a video with a fully mixed and mastered song about this terrorist act. The guy and his team must be really really talented to fully write, arrange and produce a song and a video in just 1.5 days.

But hey - I'm just a mad conspiracy theorist.

As someone who has written, recorded and mixed music--Yes this is possible, particularly when inspired or driven to write and record. Mixing and mastering in particular (which used to be painstaking, depending on the level of quality you're looking for) are easier than ever with AI and algorithmic tools.

Yes I agree, you are writing like a mad conspiracy theorist.

[Beleg85]

2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

My point here is that the US has a very well known issue with "active shooters".  It's one of the most talked about and most planned for crisis responses that police have focused on.  And yet, despite hundreds of police officers, they completely failed to follow the very first rule (that even I know!!) which is you DO NOT WAIT A SECOND when there's an active shooter.  And yet... they screwed up.

Now, I believe the problem in Moscow is the result of far bigger problems than what I just described in the US.  However, we should keep criticism in perspective.

Steve

Yeah we should definitelly, but also note that Russia also witnessed several bloody incidents of active shooters in recent years; reasons may be different than in US, but they have their own "Columbine effect" too, despite more restriction on  firearms (probably militarization of younger strata of society, rolling already before the war, is one of factors). Very few effective adjustments to procedures were made since then:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Izhevsk_school_shooting

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Perm_State_University_shooting

1 hour ago, kraze said:

This morning russian propagandist singer Shaman posted a video with a fully mixed and mastered song about this terrorist act. The guy and his team must be really really talented to fully write, arrange and produce a song and a video in just 1.5 days.

Islamic State did literally everything to prove it was them, including publication of photos, own-made clips from scene which was corroborated by all dependable intelligence agencies. Unless you suggest Russians somehow hacked now into all official IS media outlets and captured their entire narration.

Shaman may be on drugs or using previous template. Also, he is not exactly James Joice either, but banal composer for masses.

 

Nice clip from Novokuibyshchevsk rafinery drone strike; curious how suddenly these drones are loosing high at the target, it almost look like diving bombers from WWII.

 

Edited March 24 by Beleg85

[Holien]

42 minutes ago, kraze said:

But hey - I'm just a mad conspiracy theorist

You said it...

But keep barking up the wrong tree...

[Ts4EVER]

44 minutes ago, kraze said:

This morning russian propagandist singer Shaman posted a video with a fully mixed and mastered song about this terrorist act. The guy and his team must be really really talented to fully write, arrange and produce a song and a video in just 1.5 days.

But hey - I'm just a mad conspiracy theorist.

There are people on twitch live streaming making songs in one evening...

[billbindc]

1 hour ago, kraze said:

This morning russian propagandist singer Shaman posted a video with a fully mixed and mastered song about this terrorist act. The guy and his team must be really really talented to fully write, arrange and produce a song and a video in just 1.5 days.

But hey - I'm just a mad conspiracy theorist.

...with a colonial mindset.