How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Haiduk]

48 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

It strains the brain to think how Putin could say to people "we were just attacked by our own people in the Caucuses.

Attackers were Tajiks, they are not Caucausins. Tajikistan rejected these men were their citizens, because they already long time lived in Russia and got Russian citizenship  - some of them on the eve of attack. But in Russia, especially in Moscow there are huge number of Tajiks live, involved in unqualified work - building, couriers, garbagers, janitors etc. They are not so warlike, dare and agressive like Chechens and Dagestanians, who can shoot with firearms in the center of Moscow or block the roads during marriages and police will afraid to react. Russians often treat Tajik and Uzbek workers as own servants or even slaves (oh, yeah Russians very like to be in role of "white masters" in front of non-white people - you can see alot of videos with behavior of Russian tourists in Egypt or Turkey). They can easy to offend them and even to beat up Tajik couriers if he late, for example. But in last time Middle-Asian migrants became to unite in some sort of fraterneties, and became to develop aggression to Russians, taking an example from Caucasians. In some Russian scholls already most of pupils are not Slavic, but Middle-Asians and Caucasians, so Russian kids more and more encounter with Muslim bulling and this cause a response - the growing of skinheads and other similar movements. 

Among Russians already many aggressive comments in social media concerning Tajiks, so with time this mutual tensions will just grow more and more. Like and in other countries, encountering with sharp increasing of alien-culture population share    

Edited March 23 by Haiduk

[The_Capt]

26 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Right, so you are now agreeing with me that there's plenty of plausible explanations for an ISIS connection that you previously said didn't exist?  Good, that means you're taking in new information and not totally lost to conspiracy theory thinking.

More evidence that ISIS was not the brains or the muscle behind the operation, even though they might have helped fund and plan it.

This is how Al Qaeda worked for many, many years.  Still does, I think.  Some local group of Islamic aligned extremists comes up with an idea, Al Qaeda would support it, and then claim some/all the credit for it.  That is why it has been called a "network". 

ISIS works exactly the same way.  It is not some sort of centralized and unified organization that directly controls everything done in its name.  No, it is very much an opportunist group that firmly believes "the enemy of my enemy is my brother".  They will support their "brothers" even if there is nothing in common other than Islamist fighting against Infidels.

Steve

 

I am thinking that ISIL - who people really need to do some more reading on as we spent the better part of a decade fighting them in Iraq and Syria - or affiliate "ISIS-K," had some pretty obvious motives for the timing of this whole thing.  All terrorism is about demonstration.  And this is exactly what this was. ISIS-K is about creating a holy caliphate in the Stans (they are actually driving the Taliban nuts right now = zero sympathy and maybe there is a thing called karma).  They took the opportunity after the Russian election to demonstrate that Putin is not "all powerful" and that Russia needs to back off while they create whatever it is they are pushing for.  The entire action was more likely for their own regional support audience -"see we can strike at the heart of the Russian Empire".

More simply put, it may very well have had little or nothing to do with this war.  ISIS-K may be taking advantage of Russian security being overstretched because of the war but their motives/objectives have little to do with the war itself.

Russia appears to be spinning this to throw crap at Ukraine by labeling them as "supporters" without giving Ukraine credit for the actual attack.  This screams to me they are trying to salvage what they can from what is essentially a complete sh#tshow.  People giving Russia credit for some masterful false flag conspiracy are simply playing into Russian narratives - "Look at how cunning and complex is our planning!  You should re-think this entire war."  Even when it makes absolutely zero sense to even try such an action. 

It is a f#cking duck.

[The_Capt]

2 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Attackers were Tajiks, they are nor Caucausins. Tajikistan rejected these men were their citizens, because they already long time lived in Russia and got Russian citizenship  - some of them on the eve of attack. But in Russia, especially in Moscow there are huge number of Tajiks live, involved in unqualified work - building, couriers, garbagers, janitors etc. They are not so warlike, dare and agressive like Chechens and Dagestanians, who can shoot with firearms in the center of Moscow or block the roads during marriages and police will afraid to react. Russians often treat Tajik and Uzbek workers as own servants or even slaves (oh, yeah Russians very like to be in role of "white masters" in front of non-white people - you can see alot of videos with behavior of Russian tourists in Egypt or Turkey). They can easy to offend them and even to beat up Tajik couriers if he late, for example. But in last time Middle-Asian migrants became to unite in some sort of fraterneties, and became to develop aggression to Russians, taking an example from Caucasians. In some Russian scholls already most of pupils are not Slavic, but Middle-Asians and Caucasians, so Russian kids more and more encounter with Muslim bulling and this cause a response - the growing of skinheads and other similar movements. 

Among Russians already many aggressive comments in social media concerning Tajiks, so with time this mutual tensions will just grow more and more. Like and in other countries, encountering with sharp increasing of alien-culture population share    

Now this is starting to make more sense.  This was a regional-based terrorist action.  This is more likely an opening shot on a Near Abroad break away because players smell blood in the water as Russia continues to be stretched by this war.

[Astrophel]

2 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

I am thinking that ISIL - who people really need to do some more reading on as we spent the better part of a decade fighting them in Iraq and Syria - or affiliate "ISIS-K," had some pretty obvious motives for the timing of this whole thing.  All terrorism is about demonstration.  And this is exactly what this was. ISIS-K is about creating a holy caliphate in the Stans (they are actually driving the Taliban nuts right now = zero sympathy and maybe there is a thing called karma).  They took the opportunity after the Russian election to demonstrate that Putin is not "all powerful" and that Russia needs to back off while they create whatever it is they are pushing for.  The entire action was more likely for their own regional support audience -"see we can strike at the heart of the Russian Empire".

More simply put, it may very well have had little or nothing to do with this war.  ISIS-K may be taking advantage of Russian security being overstretched because of the war but their motives/objectives have little to do with the war itself.

Russia appears to be spinning this to throw crap at Ukraine by labeling them as "supporters" without giving Ukraine credit for the actual attack.  This screams to me they are trying to salvage what they can from what is essentially a complete sh#tshow.  People giving Russia credit for some masterful false flag conspiracy are simply playing into Russian narratives - "Look at how cunning and complex is our planning!  You should re-think this entire war."  Even when it makes absolutely zero sense to even try such an action. 

It is a f#cking duck.

Very informative.  Yet another perspective.  For sure the Islamists are connected.

[Haiduk]

1 minute ago, The_Capt said:

Now this is starting to make more sense.  This was a regional-based terrorist action.  This is more likely an opening shot on a Near Abroad break away because players smell blood in the water as Russia continues to be stretched by this war.

Most serious incident before this took place in training center, where Tajiks shot out Slavic servicemen, which humilitated them. Usually only insults, bulling and browls between Russians and Middle-Asians. Though many of Middle-Asians are indigent low-educated Muslims and can be easily enlisted by many of Muslim terrorist organisations for not so big money. In the same way like they enlist to Russian army. 

[Astrophel]

7 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Most serious incident before this took place in training center, where Tajiks shot out Slavic servicemen, which humilitated them. Usually only insults, bulling and browls between Russians and Middle-Asians. Though many of Middle-Asians are indigent low-educated Muslims and can be easily enlisted by many of Muslim terrorist organisations for not so big money. In the same way like they enlist to Russian army. 

The choice of target in Moscow suggests that ideology is at least as important as money.  Today I read an article in FT about Opus Dei - worth checking out and if you need a link let me know,

[dan/california]

 

10 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Most serious incident before this took place in training center, where Tajiks shot out Slavic servicemen, which humilitated them. Usually only insults, bulling and browls between Russians and Middle-Asians. Though many of Middle-Asians are indigent low-educated Muslims and can be easily enlisted by many of Muslim terrorist organisations for not so big money. In the same way like they enlist to Russian army. 

Whatever the Russian regime knew, whenever they knew it, and whatever they had to do with it, this is the same regime that managed to turn a three day coup attempt into the biggest mess since AT LEAST the Iran/Iraq war. What ever happened it is being responded to by the same incompetents who made the rest of this fiasco. Just because blame it on Ukraine is what their vodka soaked, cocaine damaged, brains came up with doe NOT mean what they are doing now makes any sense. We are trying MUCH to hard to make it make sense. And that is true regardless of who actually did the attack on the theater.

[Haiduk]

9 minutes ago, Astrophel said:

The choice of target in Moscow suggests that ideology is at least as important as money.  Today I read an article in FT about Opus Dei - worth checking out and if you need a link let me know,

I suppose it was not ISIS, but Kremlin work at all. For ISIS, more logically would be to make terroristic attack as revenge for Gaza or something else, but not against country, withstanding with West - their main enemy. There was claims about "attack on Christian gathering", but who knows, how much Muslims, except Christians or atheists were killed in this attack

[akd]

17 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

I suppose it was not ISIS, but Kremlin work at all. For ISIS, more logically would be to make terroristic attack as revenge for Gaza or something else, but not against country, withstanding with West - their main enemy. There was claims about "attack on Christian gathering", but who knows, how much Muslims, except Christians or atheists were killed in this attack

IS does not function as a monolithic group that way.

[Haiduk]

The look of DniproGES dam in Zaporizhzhia city after the strike. The road through the dam is opened for movement, but railway passage is destroyed in one section. There will be need some days in order experts could enter to power plant facilities (there are alot of smoke still there) and to asses the damage level and asses it was intended strike on the dam, but they missed and hit power plant facility and gas pipe (exactly this caused large fire) or they targeted exactly power plant facilities. 

In week before attack some Russian TGs shared information as if "UKR special services prepare destruction of the dam to blame Russia again"

 

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

Attackers were Tajiks, they are not Caucausins. Tajikistan rejected these men were their citizens, because they already long time lived in Russia and got Russian citizenship  - some of them on the eve of attack. But in Russia, especially in Moscow there are huge number of Tajiks live, involved in unqualified work - building, couriers, garbagers, janitors etc. They are not so warlike, dare and agressive like Chechens and Dagestanians, who can shoot with firearms in the center of Moscow or block the roads during marriages and police will afraid to react. Russians often treat Tajik and Uzbek workers as own servants or even slaves (oh, yeah Russians very like to be in role of "white masters" in front of non-white people - you can see alot of videos with behavior of Russian tourists in Egypt or Turkey). They can easy to offend them and even to beat up Tajik couriers if he late, for example. But in last time Middle-Asian migrants became to unite in some sort of fraterneties, and became to develop aggression to Russians, taking an example from Caucasians. In some Russian scholls already most of pupils are not Slavic, but Middle-Asians and Caucasians, so Russian kids more and more encounter with Muslim bulling and this cause a response - the growing of skinheads and other similar movements. 

Among Russians already many aggressive comments in social media concerning Tajiks, so with time this mutual tensions will just grow more and more. Like and in other countries, encountering with sharp increasing of alien-culture population share    

I am glad to get us moving away from the implausible to the probable, which is that Russia has a lot of enemies and many of them are within Russia (either as citizens or as migrants from an exploited neighboring state).

There are two primary possibilities. 

1.  the real people behind the attack were Caucasians and the FSB rounded up the first batch of Tajiks they could find because nobody within Russia views them as a threat like they do people from Chechnya, Ingushetia, Dagestan, or another traditional problem area in the Caucuses.  Better to blame rogue slaves than to raise the specter of a major conflict brewing in the Caucuses again.

2.  it really was Tajiks who did the attack.  Russia found at least some of those responsible and managed to arrest them.

In either situation it's not hard to see ISIS (ISIS-K) being involved as both are Islamic based societies with longstanding cultural and political grievances against Moscow.

Either scenario is very bad for Putin's regime, but the Tajik one is worse IMHO because it's newer and comes in addition to traditional problems from the Caucuses.  To the degree this is being made worse by the Ukraine war is unknown, but there is evidence that this is related.  At least indirectly.'

Whatever the case is, this is not good for Putin at all.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

37 minutes ago, akd said:

IS does not function as a monolithic group that way.

Yes, and also as I stated that an operation like this was probably in the planning stages for the better part of a year.  i.e. before Gaza.  Terrorists don't seem likely to cancel an operation in Place A because of something going on in Place B.  They are more likely to do the planned action in Place A and do a separate operation in Place B.

Let's remember that terrorists are long term responses to long term grievances.  ISIS could launch an operation against Israel 10 years from now and claim it is in retaliation for what is going on in Gaza today.  Terrorists aren't really known for their ability to "move on" from something the are upset about.

Steve

[Haiduk]

28 minutes ago, akd said:

IS does not function as a monolithic group that way.

I know, but all consequences of this attack are benefit for Kremlin regime, not for strenghten of any ISIS group. It were many talks during the war with ISIS, that Russia also had a hand in their activity. You can find what detained Tajiks said on interrogation - it's just ridiculous - they communicate with own customers in open social media chats, got money on usual cards (and FSB with own tracking capabilities couldn't see this?), they got 500 000 RUB for such "work" - they could get the same money for signing of ciontract and first month of contract service in Russian army. This is enoug for poor Tajik in Moscow, but not enough for trained ISIS fihghter. 

This attack is for inner usage mostly. Many "liberal" Russians, hearing about "Ukrianian trail" will stand for Putin now - "he is evil, but Ukrainians are just demons if they hire ISIS to kill us". Russian will more calmly accept new level of dictatorship, enetering of death penalty, mobilization etc.

[Aragorn2002]

Am I correct when I say this rock band isn't a big fan of Vlad? If so, his audience won't be either...

[Haiduk]

11 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

Am I correct when I say this rock band isn't a big fan of Vlad? If so, his audience won't be either...

No, they actively supported Putin. Though, most of Russians are indifferent to this. On their perfomance there were both "putinists" and "liberals", but more those who "we are out of policy". But in this time a policy came to them.  

Maybe you will be surprised, but even in Ukraine enough people continue to listen Russian rap, rock, watch their movies etc even these groups or artists openly supoprted the war. "I just like them, music/cimema is over the war and policy". These speeches you can hear even among UKR soldiers.  

Edited March 23 by Haiduk

[Kinophile]

 

 

[dan/california]

 

Quote

 

https://www.politico.eu/article/vladimir-putin-ukraine-moscow-concert-hall-terrorist-attack-russia/

Putin links Ukraine to Moscow massacre without evidence

 

At least the press is doing an above average job of explaining what is going on.

[panzermartin]

13 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Maybe you will be surprised, but even in Ukraine enough people continue to listen Russian rap, rock, watch their movies etc even these groups or artists openly supoprted the war. "I just like them, music/cimema is over the war and policy". These speeches you can hear even among UKR soldiers

Do you think that there is a percentage of Ukrainians (not LNR, DPR) that avoid conscription because they don't want to participate in war with Russia out of some kind of connection or sympathy with them. (not necessarily political) Though I understand any sympathy after two years of torture and death is non existent. 

I can't grasp how tragic this war of extinction is, between these once closely related countries. 

Sometimes I wonder, can we all turn out like these, towards our neighbours, we now chat and laugh with, given the circumstances. 

[Beleg85]

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

I suppose it was not ISIS, but Kremlin work at all. For ISIS, more logically would be to make terroristic attack as revenge for Gaza or something else, but not against country, withstanding with West - their main enemy. There was claims about "attack on Christian gathering", but who knows, how much Muslims, except Christians or atheists were killed in this attack

IS does not like to cooperate with Hamas (nor with other groups on that matter,although they did some limited contacts and definitelly copied themselves), regard them impure sunni, basically Tehran puppets -which isn't exactly untrue. Theory of Hamas being Iranian asset is gaining ground in wide islamic world, so IS has nothing to do with Gaza; especially Khorasan branch. In their views, such thing as Gaza or Palestinian nation does not exist.

Also these kind of radical groups are by default builded in contre to all normal geopolitics. Russia, USA, Israel, they don't care. It's their main virtue in the eyes of islamist edgy teenagers around the world. All other groups sonner or later become somebody's proxies.

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

In either situation it's not hard to see ISIS (ISIS-K) being involved as both are Islamic based societies with longstanding cultural and political grievances against Moscow.

Either scenario is very bad for Putin's regime, but the Tajik one is worse IMHO because it's newer and comes in addition to traditional problems from the Caucuses.  To the degree this is being made worse by the Ukraine war is unknown, but there is evidence that this is related.  At least indirectly.'

Whatever the case is, this is not good for Putin at all.

It's worth to note, since topic was not touched here, that supposed attackers were intercepted on the road in Bryansk...leading to Belarus actually, not Ukraine. I can fully imagine them trying to shelter there for some time (or already having fixed contacts) and then possibly trying to cross into Europe disguised as poor refugees.

Edited March 23 by Beleg85

[MikeyD]

People have largely forgotten the original ISIS - the guys waging their war of conquest in Syria in 2014 - were largely Russians who had been radicalized by the Chechen war. So Russia experiencing a random ISIS terrorist attack is not out of the question. 

[Battlefront.com]

17 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

It's worth to note, since topic was not touched here, that supposed attackers were intercepted on the road in Bryansk...leading to Belarus actually, not Ukraine. I can fully imagine them trying to shelter there for some time (or already having fixed contacts) and then possibly trying to cross into Europe disguised as poor refugees.

Thanks for that.  My assumption was that if they were caught anywhere west of Moscow the official word would be "headed for Ukraine", but the reality would be "headed for Belarus".  It's not exactly safe there, as Belarus' security services are an extension of Moscow's, but it's easier to get from Belarus into the EU or Ukraine than it is to get into EU or Ukraine directly.

Steve

[TheVulture]

16 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

t touched here, that supposed attackers were intercepted on the road in Bryansk...leading to Belarus actually, not Ukraine. I can fully imagine them trying to shelter there for some time (or already having fixed contacts) and then possibly trying to cross into Europe disguised as poor refugees.

The only mention of location I've seen (in English) has been "the Bryansk Region", which would usually mean "Bryansk Oblast" rather than specifically the city of Bryansk. The M3 from Moscow runs through Bryansk oblast to Ukraine and within 20km or Bryansk city. You could turn off the M3, go through Bryansk and on to a road to southern Belarus, but that's not the shortest way out of Russia into Belarus (it's about 560km, while the shortest route from Moscow is straight toards Minsk and 400km).

If the goal is to get from Moscow, out of the country as quickly as possible, and avoiding Belarus which is not really getting out of reach of Russia, then 500km straight down the M3 to Ukraine (through Bryansk oblast) is the shortest and fastest route.

[Haiduk]

31 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

Do you think that there is a percentage of Ukrainians (not LNR, DPR) that avoid conscription because they don't want to participate in war with Russia out of some kind of connection or sympathy with them.

Of course, some such percentage takes place, but main reason is a fear for own life. Modern people, who live in comfort it's have something to lose. You can be surprised maybe, but there were already dozen cases, when SBU unvealed Russian agents inside AFU - they are, sympathic of Russia, were enlisted by GRU/FSB and by own free-will mobilized themselves to army to perform espionage

[TheVulture]

Just for reference, here's a map with Bryansk oblast outlines, and various routes - Red is quickest way out of Russia to Belarus, Blue is quickest way out o f Russia avoiding Belarus (i.e Ukraine), green is the route to Belarus via Bryansk.

Edited March 24 by TheVulture

[Haiduk]

17 minutes ago, TheVulture said:

The only mention of location I've seen (in English) has been "the Bryansk Region", which would usually mean "Bryansk Oblast" rather than specifically the city of Bryansk. The M3 from Moscow runs through Bryansk oblast to Ukraine and within 20km or Bryansk city. You could turn off the M3, go through Bryansk and on to a road to southern Belarus, but that's not the shortest way out of Russia into Belarus (it's about 560km, while the shortest route from Moscow is straight toards Minsk and 400km).

If the goal is to get from Moscow, out of the country as quickly as possible, and avoiding Belarus which is not really getting out of reach of Russia, then 500km straight down the M3 to Ukraine (through Bryansk oblast) is the shortest and fastest route.

Some adequate people in Russia ask - well, you are Tajiks and just made bloody murdering. Your faces are on each police patrol, around the city activated plan of interception. And you... even not wearing other clothes, sit all four in the same car, on which you arrived to make the attack, keeping own passports with you and drive... no, not to Petrovskiy market area, where huge Central Asian migrants getto, where you can just lost for authorities. You drive to Ukraine - through huge Fridays's evening traffic jams on the exits from Moscow, you drive through all these checkpoints, police, SOBR, which already hunting for you, through Rosgvardiya posts on the roads in rears of Russian troops in Bryansk oblast, through deployments of troops, through zero-lline positions, minefields, drones in the air - so even is Ukrainian side "prepared a window", what other Russian forces would be doing? 

And other comment form Russian social media - if you try to escape after terrorist attack to Bryansk oblast almost to Belarusian border and spend about 5 hours for this through Moscow Friday's evening traffic jams - immediatelly communicate with Formula-1, you will get a contract %)   

Edited March 23 by Haiduk